Brexit, Nexit, Frexit, Grexit, and Italeave
Starting this week and lasting into the summer there will be a series of elections/events that could totally redefine the political and financial system of Europe.
Prime Minister May could trigger Article 50 as early as Monday, although it will likely be later. It starts the clock for Britain's exit from the EU, which will probably happen in mid-2019.
This event is expected, so no one will be surprised except those that are still in denial.
Mr Wilders' election would be the latest blow for Europe’s liberal order in the wake of the Donald Trump’s victory and the Brexit vote.
He has pledged to close the Netherlands’ borders, shut down mosques and leave the euro and EU if he gets into power.
Mr. Wilder may promise that, but he won't come anywhere near enough votes in the legislature to do it.
However, being the largest party, the PVV should have enough pull to implement a Brexit-style referendum. This is what the globalists fear.
The poll, carried out by the respected Maurice de Hond group, found that once ‘don’t knows’ are excluded 56 per cent of Dutch people would vote to leave the EU compared to 44 per cent who would opt for remain.
The 2017 French presidential election on 23 April, and the second round on 7 May, is the Big Enchilada.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front (NF), should never have had a chance, but a flurry of scandals involving François Fillon has made her advance to the second round a near certainty.
Polls published this week show Emmanuel Macron, the former investment banker running on a pro-business, socially liberal ticket, ahead of Ms Le Pen in first-round voting for the first time. He polled at 26 per cent of the vote, with Ms Le Pen a breath behind at 25 per cent.
Bruno Cautres, from the Cevipof think tank, told The Local: "Six months ago the possibility of her winning was zero. Now, we cannot say that."
Le Pen has promised to renegotiate the terms of France's membership of the EU if elected president.
In all of Europe, only in Greece is the EU more unpopular than it is in France. If given a referendum, French voters would almost surely vote to leave the Eurozone, and that would mean the end of the Euro.
Some analysts have given the NF leader up to a one in five chance of becoming President in May though Krämer projected that should Le Pen be able to defy the odds and deliver Frexit, the European Monetary Union would then be "virtually doomed".
Greece is on the verge of default. So what's new?
Bailout negotiations between Athens and its creditors have stalled. The possibility of Grexit, or euro exit, has re-emerged and bond yields have soared. The yield on two-year Greek government bonds has risen from 6% to 10% in less than two weeks as spooked investors have dumped their holdings. And the shrill rhetoric last seen at the height of the crisis in 2015 has returned....
The impasse has turned into a standoff as creditors demand additional austerity once the current bailout expires. Without further reduction of pensions – already cut 12 times since the crisis began – and the tax-free threshold of personal incomes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues, the debt-stricken country will never be able to achieve its agreed fiscal goal of a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP from 2018.
The problem is that Greece's economy is back in recession while its debt load grows ever higher, never shrinking. Will Greece kick the can down the road again? Maybe, maybe not.
Moody's credit rating agency projected that although they expect the country's government to be able to meet the demands from the EU and IMF, the potential for snap general elections in Greece is evident.
Greece is first-world proof of what has failed so often in third-world nations: unpayable debts will never be paid with more austerity.
Annual GDP data published yesterday confirmed that Greece indeed grew last year, by just 0.01% (pdf). That won’t do much to dig the economy out of its hole: GDP has shrunk by a quarter since 2008 and the unemployment rate is stuck above 20%....As a result, the government has been spending less each year since 2009, dragging down economic growth. The main reason for the unexpectedly large fourth-quarter revision to GDP was a sharp drop in government spending—down 2.1% from the third quarter.
If Greece’s economy continues to limp along, its crippling debts will only get more burdensome. Public debt already stands a about 180% of GDP, and the IMF warned earlier this year that it could rise to 275% of GDP by 2060.
Eventually Greece will leave the Eurozone. It's only a matter of time.
After the defeat of the consitutional referendum last December, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his resignation as promised. This should have triggered a national election, where the anti-Euro Five Star Movement was leading the polls.
It never happened. Italy's next election won't happen until 2018. What happened? I'm not exactly sure, but I do know that Berlusconi is involved and the ruling party has split.
In the meantime, Italy's banking system is still in crisis and investors are fleeing Italian debt.