Arctic and Antarctic Ice (updated diagram)

I've been reading about this for a few days in various locations, then I ran across this essay by Bob Henson at Weather Underground that covers most of it. Lots of images and links, well worth a read.

Crazy Cryosphere: Record Low Sea Ice, An Overheated Arctic, and a Snowbound Eurasia
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/crazy-cryosphere-record-lo...

Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year.

global-sea-ice-area-wipneus-11.17.16.jpg

A common denialist talking point is that while we may be losing ice in the Arctic, we're gaining it in the Antarctic, so no problem. That diagram illustrates that we've got a large departure from the normal range of the combined total.

The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average!

...

For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Arctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (2012) was 582,000 square kilometers, an area about a third larger than California.

This next image is not from that essay, but from the National Snow and Ice Data Center website:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

arctic-sea-ice-extent-20161118.png

[UPDATE] That diagram is for November 18th. (they put the current one at the top of the page where I would never think to look).
The takeaway is that the curves for previous years are all the same shape, but this year is exhibiting new behavior - the air and water temperatures are too hot for ice to form at normal rates. For a couple of weeks in early October, the freeze nearly stopped.
[UPDATE] After resuming a normal rate of freezing for the rest of October, it stalled again briefly, resumed the normal rate, and now has stalled again. I don't expect that it can "catch up" for lost time, that the overall freeze cycle will have a few weeks of delay resulting in reduced maximum ice extent when the thaw cycle starts in March. I think we're setting up for a new minimum extent in 2017, this time due to melting in place rather than remarkable ice transfer as in 2012. I further expect to see this "too warm to freeze" phenomenon to become the new normal leading rapidly to an ice-free Arctic.

Temperatures north of 80°N smashed records for warmth throughout the winter of 2015-16. Now they’re on an even more torrid pace. In mid-November, temperatures across the high Arctic spiked to readings more typical of September, about 40°F above average for this time of year...
The only place in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that’s been consistently cold and snowy this autumn is Eurasia (see Figure 4 above). It’s as if the hemisphere’s entire allotment of chilly, snowy weather has been rounded up and consigned to one area, albeit a big one. For this, we can credit or blame what’s called a “wave one” pattern, where the upper-level circulation around the North Pole is dominated by a single elongated loop, shunted in this case toward the Eurasian side. Although the cold in Eurasia hasn’t been enough to balance the warmth elsewhere, it’s been quite dramatic on its own terms. On November 9, Stockholm, Sweden, experienced its heaviest one-day November snowfall (39 cm or 15.4 inches) in records going back to 1904. Across Siberia, October produced what appears to be the greatest snow extent for the time of year since 1998, and some areas got record totals for so early in the season, according to a weather.com report. In central China’s Hubei province, hundreds of homes were damaged and thousands of power poles were brought down by heavy snow during the second week of November, according to Xinhua.

By comparison, the snows over North America have been paltry indeed. On November 15, only 0.2% of the entire contiguous U.S. was covered by snow, the lowest coverage for mid-November in at least 14 years.

Looks like Eurasia won the snow and cold lottery for this year.

TL;DR - Ice? We don't need no stinking ice. Think of the pineapple farming opportunities in the Yukon!

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FOW is the only reason I go to TOP. He's good. He said the reason why it's snowing in Eurasia is because the moisture from the warm Artic is being dumped there due to evapoartion into the atmosphere. I'm pretty sure that is what he said. Anyway it is scary stuff.

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"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho

Bisbonian's picture

over the continental US over the last few weeks, that I have never seen before. (I spend most of my work hours at around 40,000 feet, so I keep a close eye on what they are doing). Jet stream going west much of the time (they typically go east, here), and then making very sharp course reversals...that lead to strong turbulence, crummy rides, and fuel planning challenges. If the polar circuit has shifted over Eurasia, then that would explain a lot of it.

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

Shockwave's picture

We are going into a Mad Max future. He even implied that it may happen before the next sequel.

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The political revolution continues

Lookout's picture

is a great documentary the last 15 mins of the film will blow your mind

here's the trailer (2 min)
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIZTMVNBjc4]

And wow... found the entire hour documentary. The last 15 min is killer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwHkaX4WFjI

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

are going to be forced to admit they're catastrophically wrong.The longer they deny, the angrier the World will be with them when that day comes. They will probably by lynched on live TV if that day comes after anything can be done to ameliorate it.

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Beware the bullshit factories.

earthling1's picture

When they are dead and buried, I hope the millennials open their graves up and use the hole as a latrine.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

earthling1's picture

Thanks for the cleanup on aisle 4.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

earthling1.

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go to their graves saying the same old meme. "It wasn't man made. It was just nature taking it's course!" I know quite a few rightwingers, one a science teacher at a local high school, that repeat this same shit. They don't deny the weather is freaky but it's just nature doing what nature does. One of their favorite talking points is "how arrogant of the left to think humans could actually change the weather"...

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earthling1's picture

is the climate deniers are painting a huge target on their foreheads when this catastrophe pans out as completely UNDENIABLE. Where will they run to hide?
Whereas nobody will go hunting for those of us who accept science should we happen to be wrong. We'll just be labled "boys who cried wolf".

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

WoodsDweller's picture

when you factor in expected rate of change.
I've commented on this before in this space. The conventional wisdom is that climate change happens gradually, and even when it does move quickly it can't happen faster than about 1 C per century. The theory of "rapid climate change" or "abrupt climate change" postulates that warming can happen at 1 C per decade, or even faster, as the Earth systems flip from one climate state to another.
At 1 C per century, deniers (particularly the paid shills) expect to never pay the price for their role in this, whereas they can spend the money today. They won't have to hide because the bill won't come due until after they are gone.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

earthling1's picture

But as I look around its happening really fast, imho
I give it a decade.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

boriscleto's picture

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" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

PriceRip's picture

          Displaying the estimated volume makes it a bit more frighting, in my opinion.

          This drives home the "circling the drain" aspect of the situation.

ArcticDeathSpiral.png

Source

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PriceRip's picture

          I am talking about teaching people to understand (as apposed to know) how to think about these topics. The push is to force education into a knowledge driven system with very little room for allowing students to develop the ability to understand how we know about reality. This process is killing creativity and destroying the motivation to learn. It is driven by the notion that teacher teach students rather than the notion that teachers provide opportunities for students to learn. Schools/colleges run using a business model will never succeed. Academics need to retake administration to reestablish a student centered educational system.

          The turnaround time for this to occur is incredibly small, once the business types are removed.

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