Americans unable to separate politics from reality
American workers may be earning less, but they've almost never been more confident.
At 113.8, the expectations component hasn’t been this high since September 2000. The present situation component is at 143.1 for its best reading since August 2001 which was just at the end of the 1991 to 2001 economic cycle.
Whoohoo! everything is coming up roses!
Except, sort of, in reality.
Consumers are extremely upbeat right now though the lack of inflation expectations doesn’t quite fit. What else doesn’t fit is actual consumer spending which has failed to match the strength underway in confidence. Watch on Friday for the consumer sentiment report which breaks down what it describes as unprecedented polarization in its sample between the optimism of Republicans and the pessimism of Democrats.
Consumer Confidence is used by economists as a proxy for consumer spending. But the proxy has broken down. Consumers are saying they are confident, but they aren't spending.
Why is that? Politics.
While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead. Interestingly, those who self-identified as Independents had an Expectations Index of 88.3, which was nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference. Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing of favorable changes.
Basically, Republicans actually believe the bullsh*t coming out of Donald Trump's mouth.
Which I personally find amazing, because he is such an obvious con artist. It makes me think that I am missing out on a great scam.
I normally don't link to Bill Maher because he is so insufferably smug, but this time he nails it.
Comments
Reagan all over again.
Cue lots of rallies where people start smashing products made by the Chinese, claiming that they're taking away our jobs. (Do the Chinese make our cars yet? Or just the components?)
It's a whole new chapter of "U.S.A.! U.S.A.!"...
I predict, in my humble opinion, at least another great video game crash like 1983. probably due around 2018-9, since spending on AAA is down considerably from last year. Lotta big corporations gonna lose their shirts again, with crappy products. Since that's the industry I follow, I wonder what other industries are tanking on sales projections recently...
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
americans all lost this past election
and this was brought to us by O, who made all the same promises
that donnie tinyhands has made.
In reference to Obama
he should never have skipped a waking hour in pointing out the (true)fact
that his opponents to national recovery in the R party were putting personnel
politics above the survival of the american people in the midst of a crisis. they
should've been made to pay dearly for their cynical intransigence.
He did nothing.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
Imagine What a 7 Year Chorus of "Republican Sabotage" Would
have accomplished, right ?
So frustrating to have no rhetorical or framing foothold for challenging Republicans for their intergenerational goal of "starving the beast".
They literally sabotaged America to punish and stymie Obama, and nobody of any consequence said anything about it.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
Bing! Exactly.
He could speechify, but that's about it.
Never backed up or defended a damned thing, left Office with Gitmo still operational. An even worse president than Ford.
the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.
Repugnants are most excellent
at denying reality. That old line about facts having a liberal bias still stands. They want to believe it, and if they want it, they'll by God believe in it, all reality simply ignored. Idiots.
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
@lizzyh7
This does seem to be a corporate party trait - goes with the Big Lie epidemic at the top and perpetual brainwashing all the way down...
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Just a quick analysis, but
I see two reasons for the rise of confidence against lowering income (in real dollars) and spending:
1, people are adjusting slowly, so that they no longer notice the lower income. Note also the article above, that people are dying with debt. Not only are people spending less, they are living with debt. Debt is now a normal condition, it no longer carries the same dread and stigma.
2, Heard instinct. I first saw this during Reagan's 1st term - the leader said that people were doing better, and even though people were actually doing worse, they said they were doing better, (and even actually believed it) They believed that since they were doing worse while "the American people" were doing better, they were just unlucky, (and didn't want to admit it) or somehow inferior. (and ashamed to admit it)
On to Biden since 1973
I've always thought "consumer confidence"
was a bullshit statistic, publicized more to push consumer spending than to measure it.
I feel sorry for the poor dumb fuckers who believe that Trump will bring back jobs and MAGA.
It would be nice if we had a progressive alternative waiting for them when they wake up to reality.
We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.
The last time this happened was 2000
As Steve Bannon knows nobody is easier to con than a conman
I was thinking something similar
It's the triumph of Madison Avenue.
The bullsh*t shovelers, like Donald, actually seem to believe much of the bullsh*t they made up to con other people.
And Bannon is spoon feeding him what he wants and needs to
hear everyday, same with Fox Noise.
This is an iron clad bubble with the iron supplied from Trumps own ego. Tougher than actual intellectual belief, it is belief hardened by a spoilt brats needs.
Reminds Me of the Authoritarians.
In the book, Altemeyer mentions an experiment they did with devoutly religious college kids who scored highly on the Authoritarian spectrum where the kids were shown two passages, on paper, of the Resurrection, IIRC.
They were two completely different versions -- different settings, different details, etc -- offered by different people -- Matt & John, or something -- the religious Authoritarian followers all refused to acknowledge that the texts said different things. Even when prodded by the prof.
I really need to reread that piece. I'm sure it will be horrifying.
Here's the link:
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~altemey/
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu