An update on favorability polls

Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 6:42pm

We've nearly reached a milestone - Donald and Hillary are about equal in being disliked.

Which means that Hillary's lead is now down to the margin of error.

It isn't just Donald and Hillary. Their spouses are disliked too.

And we haven't even seen most of the attack ads. Whoopeee!

Tags:

#2016 #HillaryClinton #Donald Trump

Vote

Comments

Submitted by Not Henry Kissinger on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 7:13pm

The trend...

is not Hillary's friend.

—

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Submitted by Liberal Mole on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 8:02pm

After they get finished attacking each other

Perhaps everyone agree to just vote Green. "Hey guys - you loathe our guy and we loathe your gal - lets call the whole thing off!"

Submitted by LaFeminista on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 7:10am

Probably end up by both being in the low 30s

Submitted by Timmethy2.0 on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 9:14am

Almost as low as the US Congress

—

Beware the bullshit factories.

Submitted by fugwb on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 12:35pm

I dunno

the way I'm seeing it is trumps favors are rising and clintons are sinking? The way it's going trumps going to hit 50/50 and clintons going to be 30/80 by fall. I'm damn glad clinton doesn't need us Bernie supporters to beat trump, should she win the primary. (SCARE ALERT IF OPENING LINK)
Bernie or Bust...

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:48am

Heh

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ3fjQa5Hls]

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by cloudy_skies on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 8:27pm

Someone should change their name

to "none of the above" and get on the ballot in every state. They might end up winning.

Submitted by dkmich on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 8:42pm

There is trash talk on the right

About Bill, minors, and the Lolita express. Trump has a lot of ammunition.

—

"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Submitted by on the cusp on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 8:55pm

oh, man!

I hope the Freepers despise Billary enough to get it on Fox News, which will get it on all the tv screens in all the waiting rooms of all the doctors, diners, eye examiners, airports...
You get the idea.

—

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:49am

If he's not collaborating with her, he will probably win.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by democracy inaction on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 8:43pm

Serious question

If Sanders is shut out, is it still possible for him to get on the ballot? I think Trump will beat Clinton but I don't think he can beat Sanders even in a three way race. It would be nice to see a three way poll.

—

Arrr...the laws of science be a harsh mistress -Bender B. Rodriguez

Submitted by gulfgal98 on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 4:06am

Jill Stein

Jill Stein has said that the Green party will be on the ballot in all 50 states. Right now they are already on in 21 states. She has offered Bernie the top spot on the Green party ticket. I am not sure what the deadline would be for that scenario. But it is possible.

—

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Submitted by dancingrabbit on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 4:26am

gulfgal, when did Stein say

that about being on the ballot in 21
states?

I ask because the GP ballot access map
I linked to the other day was only
updated through July 2015.

I finally heard back from the site
webmaster about needing updated
info, and they said they'll be putting
up an updated map soon.

Meanwhile, I've seen a couple of
times now on Twitter that they are
on the 2016 ballot in 37 states ...

—

Only connect. - E.M. Forster

Submitted by gulfgal98 on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 6:17am

My info

on the number of states that the Green Party was on the ballot was based upon what I had read posted by others here. Not by what Jill Stein said. It certainly can now be more than 21 states if the Greens are actively working to get on the ballot in more states.

I did read recently that she said that they intended to be on the ballot in all fifty states. If you need a link, I will try to research it. It was simply a quick comment of mine, not realizing that perhaps I needed to document the exact number as of today. I am sorry if what I posted was confusing or misleading. Afterall, it is early in the morning.

—

Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Submitted by fugwb on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 12:41pm

Here's the 2016 Green Party

shakeout as of now. It looks like, IF everything went their way, they'd be on the ballot in all but 6 states...

Submitted by dkmich on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 9:12am

Don't know how updated this is, but it belongs to Green.

http://www.jill2016.com/ballotaccess

Interview with her.
https://acronymtv.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/sanders_stein/

—

"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Submitted by Timmethy2.0 on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 12:22pm

Is it a matter of getting signatures from state residents?

If so, that shouldn't be too hard to organize among the various Bernie groups.

—

Beware the bullshit factories.

Submitted by featheredsprite on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:55am

37 it not too bad

considering that this is just May.

I tried to find out if the requirements for a 3rd party are the same for an independent candiddate but wasn't successful.

The Greens hold their convention in August.

—

Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.

Submitted by Benny on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 8:54pm

And Chuck Todd Reported this Evening

About a NBC/WSJ poll coming out on Sunday. I don't know who is ahead in it, but he did say at least 10% said they would not vote for either candidate.

—

One equal temper of heroic hearts, Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will. To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.--Tennyson

Submitted by karl pearson on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 8:55pm

Chucky T

I don't pay attention to Chuck Todd's interpretation of the numbers. He is such an establishment shill. I doubt if anyone on the street even knows who he is.

Submitted by Heart of the Rockies on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 7:32am

If he's reporting the numbers in the poll

accurately, then why not believe them?

Agree he's a shill, but let's not get carried away.

Submitted by karl pearson on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 8:57pm

Edited my comment

I edited my comment to reflect what I really meant. Thanks.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:51am

10% is WAY low.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by Timmethy2.0 on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 12:33pm

My stab in the dark says 40% at least

Won't vote for either. We need to start seeing "Jill Stein" as an option in these polls.

—

Beware the bullshit factories.

Submitted by shaharazade on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 9:06pm

yeah well fuck them all and

the Trojan horse's with polls they rode in on. Let's see the questionnaires. Do you want a vagina probe along with your austerity? Do you want 'terrist's to kill yer family'? or fling your black ass in jail or shot you dead in the street? All these poll numbers might be accurate but the questions asked are absolutely insane. There all designed to herd you into the false story lines that they use to divide and conquer. Multiple choices that absolutely stand reality on it's head. Hey I livge off these public opinion numbers and yet they lie as life is not binary and the divisions are designed to obscure.

Submitted by annieli on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 9:49pm

this is not a good sign

Hillary will veer to the center and unless tRump messes up (high probability) that will be the difference between the continuation and the end of the Republic

—

@eState4Column5

Submitted by Heart of the Rockies on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 7:31am

She's already right of center.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:52am

Which would represent the end of the Republic?

Anyway, it doesn't matter if she 'veers to the center,' at least in my opinion, which may be worth jack
I don't think this cycle is about left-right-center, at all.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by shaharazade on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 10:42pm

Center my ass

she will not veer everywhere she has no waty to veer. She will as she is now show her true colors which are extremist RW in any real assessment of what's left of the now dysfunctional scale of left center right. It makes me laugh when they call these traitorous Democrat's 'moderate'. WTF is moderate about setting the wold on fire in glorious criminal endless war and declaring that the only path to any human or civil rights is through a cabal of criminal thugs and crooks who believe that this is the only world we're ever going to get cause they rule and are inevitable. Fuck them all. They always say they are inevitable and people globally always take them down. Don't know how we will deal with them but we will pry this vampire squid off humanities face once again. It's the same old story over and over again.

Submitted by Tiggers thotful spot on Fri, 05/20/2016 - 11:23pm

How did I get here?

This is not my beautiful democracy.

Submitted by LaFeminista on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 7:12am

To make it interesting they covered our democracy with

spittle and hate

Submitted by riverlover on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 6:05am

Someone called it The American Experiment.

At least now we have whiteboards, making washing easier. Start anew, try again.

—

Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

Submitted by LaFeminista on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 7:09am

That is hilarious, and both their numbers are sure to drop

Submitted by Heart of the Rockies on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 7:30am

In yesterday's NYT

the NYT/CBS poll showed 64% found both Trump and Hillary untrustworthy.

Submitted by Writerinres on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 10:54am

Untrustworthy plus one

So, it will come down to Cali/NJ dirty tricks and who wins race to bottom plus 1%. There's our next president folks.

Submitted by Cant Stop the M... on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:53am

That's what this cycle is about.

left, right and center mean jack and shit to almost everyone right now.

—

"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Submitted by JuliaW on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 10:21am

Here's a poll that should make the Clintonistas shake in their

shoes-the numbers are staggering:
"Here are the most striking, historic numbers: 58. 55. 65. What are they?
58% of respondents are dissatisfied with the current group of Republican and Democratic candidates for President.
55% of respondents favor having an independent presidential ticket in 2016.
A shocking 91% of voters under the age of 29 favor having an independent candidate on the ballot.
65% of respondents are at least somewhat, pretty or very willing to support a candidate for President who is not Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-independent-against-trump-cli...

Submitted by Roger Fox on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 10:45am

wow

—

FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

Submitted by Bisbonian on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 12:38pm

Bernie ought to stand up at the convention

and endorse Jill Stein.

—

"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

Submitted by LapsedLawyer on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 10:25am

Congratulations to the Clintonistas!

They've just handed the Presidency to the Hairball!

—

"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon

Submitted by Timmethy2.0 on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 12:40pm

No they didn't

They handed it to Jill Stein or a Bernie/Jill ticket.

—

Beware the bullshit factories.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 11:54am

Bernie supporters and Hillary

From 538

Although Clinton’s substantial lead in pledged delegates (and larger lead in overall delegates) makes her the all-but-certain Democratic nominee, her lack of support from Sanders voters is harming her general election numbers.
According to the most recent YouGov poll, 61 percent of Sanders voters have an unfavorable view of Clinton, against just 38 percent with a favorable one. YouGov has been tracking these numbers for several months,1 and they’ve gradually gotten worse for Clinton:

Gee, Sanders supporters turned negative on Clinton right around the same time that Hillary supporters started saying that Bernie fans were all racists and misogynists.
I wonder if there is a connection?

Although many Sanders supporters will start the general election campaign with a negative view of Clinton, they aren’t necessarily eager to vote for Trump. In the YouGov poll, just 55 percent of Sanders supporters said they’d vote for Clinton over Trump in November. However, only 15 percent said they’d vote for Trump. That leaves 30 percent of Sanders voters who say they are undecided, would vote for a third-party candidate or would sit out the election.
That’s because a lot of Sanders voters don’t identify as Democrats. Exit polls have been conducted in 27 primary and caucus states so far, and Clinton has won among voters who identify as Democrats in all but Vermont, New Hampshire and Wisconsin (where she tied Sanders). But she’s won self-identified independents only in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. ..
Overall throughout the primaries and caucuses, I estimate, Clinton is beating Sanders by 27 percentage points among self-identified Democrats but losing to Sanders by 31 points among voters who call themselves independents but voted in the Democratic primaries

And here's the money shot.

In the Fox News poll, only 30 percent of independents went for Clinton, and in the SurveyMonkey poll, just 36 percent did. But both surveys showed a large pool of undecided independents, potentially the Sanders voters that YouGov identified.
If Clinton wins over those voters, she’ll gain a few percentage points on Trump in national and swing state polls, and the race will potentially look more like it did in March and April, with Clinton having a fairly comfortable lead over Trump. If not, the general election could come down to the wire.

Submitted by shaharazade on Sat, 05/21/2016 - 2:12pm

What does 'self identify'

mean? What a nebulous concept. I don't think most people self identify with any political party. 43% indies and rising makes it obvious that a huge segment of voters see exactly what's going down. So what this is really saying is Sanders supporters are not rapid party Royalist's. How much of Clinton's support stems from fear that is pumped out daily by the establishment media online and off? Identity politics seems absurd as who identifies with the 'powerful interests' that mean all of harm. Demographics that do nothing but measure which brand of poison you self identify with. Fuck them all.