So Simple Even The Washington Post Gets It

Time Magazine Front Covers this ignorant screed from James Grant, noted Inflation Hawk and Gold Bug, that contends that at $42,998.12 per person the United States National Debt is insupportable and a grave threat to our economy.

As everyone should know, the only problem with a National Debt of any amount is not it's sheer magnitude, but the relationship of its size to the National Economy. Not that household metaphors are appropriate (and they really aren't), nobody would think twice about signing a mortgage that represented 3 - 5 years of total income payable in installments over 30 years. How many people do you know that are pulling down $100K annually who don't live in $300K+ houses?

In fact the only negative effect from a debt that is too large is that people (lenders) are less willing to give you loans and charge you more money (interest) to offset the risk that you will default and refuse to pay them back anything at all. A side effect is that higher interest rates can fuel inflation because it raises the cost of capital (which is also measured in interest).

So what do we see?

We see a world in which there is unlimited demand for U.S. Government debt (Treasury Notes) even at interest rates that are effectively negative (less than the projected rate of inflation which means you'd actually do better to take piles of cash and stuff them in a warehouse) along with a projected rate of inflation that has failed to meet even the Federal Reserves too modest 2% goal (if inflation were higher there would be more incentive to invest money in productive and job producing enterprises instead of stashing it in warehouses or T-Bills).

The logic of this is so stupid simple that not only the normal lefty economists (i.e. Eisenhower Republicans) have pointed it out, but the august Washington Post itself, playground of Fred Hiatt and his crew of iceflow abandoning granny and baby starvers, have realized that it is a few yucks short of wacky.

This is the worst argument about the national debt you’ll ever find
By Matt O'Brien, Washington Post
April 15 at 7:28 AM

The United States government has $13.9 trillion in debt, and I feel fine.

You should, too. That's because, despite what Jim Grant tells us on the cover of Time magazine, this doesn't mean that every man, woman, and child has to pay $42,998.12 themselves. All it means is that we have plenty of debt to roll over — which we will. The government, after all, is immortal. It doesn't have to pay back everything it owes like you or I do. It just has to pay back the interest it owes, so that investors will keep lending to it on good terms.

And, as you might have noticed, they are. The government can borrow for 10 years at 1.77 percent, for 20 years at 2.16 percent, and for 30 years at 2.58 percent. It'd be hard for those to get any lower. And that's what makes Grant's debt doom-mongering not just wrong, but world-historically so.

Think about it like this: The reason we care about the debt is that lenders might. In other words, if the debt got to be too big a share of the economy, then investors might demand tougher terms to make up for the fact that we looked a little riskier. Reducing the debt, then, is about reducing interest rates. Indeed, that was the rationale behind Bill Clinton's big deficit-reduction package in 1993. But that's impossible when interest rates are already as low as they can go, like they are now. So what would be the point of cutting the debt?

Easy: cutting the government. That, more than the debt, is what Grant really cares about. You can tell by the fact that his solution to what he thinks is too much red ink is ... a big, fat tax cut? Actually, yes. "Are we quite sure," he asks, that "we want no part of the flat-tax idea?" What he doesn't say, though, is that if you're going to cut taxes by, say, $8 trillion over 10 years — that's how much Ted Cruz's flat tax would cost — then you're going to have to get rid of a lot of the government to bring the debt down. So goodbye Social Security, goodbye Medicare, goodbye Medicaid, goodbye Obamacare, and probably goodbye food stamps and unemployment insurance, too. (The actual debt is $19 trillion, but that includes obligations we owe ourselves, like Social Security.)

But the problem is that cutting taxes for the rich to cut spending for everybody else isn't exactly a popular political platform. Just try telling people that we can't afford a safety net anymore because — again, looking at Cruz's plan — the top 0.1 percent need a $2.2 million tax cut. So instead, Grant says that this is all about helping the economy over the long-term. Because, don't you know, "sound money and a balanced budget were two sides of the coin of American prosperity."
...
So there's no reason to cut the debt today, and no reason to cut the government down to a pre-New Deal size. At least not any economic reasons. And that's why the best Grant can do is try to scare people by pointing out that our debt is in the trillions — did you know that's a million millions?!? — without mentioning that our economy is in the trillions, too.

It's not the government that's bankrupt. It's Jim Grant's fear-mongering.

What a paradise! If only we could get rid of all those "takers" we'd have ever so much money to give to the "makers".

(Of course it's cross posted from The Stars Hollow Gazette and DocuDharma)

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Where does the money come from people use to buy government securities?

It comes from government spending in the first place.

It drives me crazy when people say the government must borrow in order to spend.

The correct order is: Government must spend first, borrow after due to our monetary laws. As Aristotle said: Money is nothing but a system of laws.

Folks need a basic understanding of our laws in order to get their flow of funds correct.

Taxes and government securities are always paid for using government created money, never private bank created credit/debt.

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Cassiodorus's picture

Increasing debt goes to prop up asset bubbles while the government keeps printing money and the Important People keep asking Bernie "how are you going to pay for all those programs"?

When the whole system whirls out of control they will have to declare a debt jubilee and create a new system anyway. Why not one that allows everyone a chance? William I. Robinson argues that about a third of the world's population is locked out of effective participation in the capitalist system, which would be nearly two and a half billion people.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

Money can be anything. Standard economics posits 2 properties- medium of exchange and store of value. If you embrace Modern Monetary Theory (which I don't when standard economics will do) the store of value derives entirely from its function as payment for taxes (taxes as a substitute for feudal physical service to the State).

Personally I think the concentration of wealth means that any ill effects of the destruction of notional wealth created by inflationary bubbles bursting will primarily be felt by those who most deserve it- the .01% who monopolize capital.

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Cassiodorus's picture

Marx points this out in great detail in Capital. Value is a social relationship -- in an elementary way between buyers and sellers but as an aggregate between capital, which accumulates value, and labor, which produces it.

Money, then, is the fetishized form of this relationship.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

telebob's picture

The only reason to bring it up is to convince us that we can't have what we want.

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If you plant ice, you're gonna harvest wind. -R. Hunter/J. Garcia

Like good roads and bridges that don't fall down.

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edg's picture

Not what we want. What we need and deserve.

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Always good to see you. Debt is too high. Let's cut the Pentagon's budget in half and put it on the debt.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

All money is debt.

If you want the economy to grow, then the money supply has to grow, which means someone has to spend more than their present income. This can be either the private sector (which takes on private bank debt) or the public sector (which, since America is a monetary sovereign, means it creates its' own money).

It was private debt loads that brought the economy down, not government "debt" because the government, unlike you, creates dollars itself.

You have to earn dollars to pay off your private bank debts.

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I borrow money to buy a home, or I borrow money to gamble at the casinos. My point is the pentagon is casino debt, and I'm tired of having they throw my taxes away.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

It's certainly a haven for waste, fraud and abuse. Let's start with the F-35 which is fiendishly expensive and doesn't and never will work better than the planes it's supposed to replace.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

And entirely right, you know... in the context of American zero-sum economics. What really makes it tick is the fact that the extreme majority of US dollars in existence are located outside the United States, held by foreigners. As long as the dollar is necessary for foreigners to trade with each other, it's all good. Global dollarization puts the "con" in "confidence." You don't like it? Maybe you need a little taste of "humanitarian intervention" US-style.

Of course, every day in every way, all those dollars out there are packing their suitcases. They want to come home and be reborn as wallpaper. China is in the process of dumping a trillion or so in Dollar reserves to invest in dollar-free trading settlement for the Eastern Hemisphere, home of OBOR (One Belt One Road), which removes the threat of future dollar terrorism. The First Quarter for China is booming, as a result. In fact, most nations are letting their Dollar reserves shrink. But slowly, and funneling it through Belgium, so that de-leveraging doesn't leave a ripple. Despite the gruesome deaths of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi, who both died within months of announcing plans to bypass the dollar, Africa is once again mobilizing it dump it's use in trade. Africa is in the process of switching to the Yuan. Those two leaders where really ahead of the curve. I mean, who sells oil for dollars anymore? (Unless it's to acquire advanced weapons.)

Thus, the Petrodollar? It's dead Jim.

MLMs are great. Until the one day that they're not.

Always a pleasure to see you, ek. Don't be such a stranger.

Yr friend,

Pluto

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The House of Saud is threatening to dump $750 Billion if we allow people to sue over 9/11.

Ah, it's good to be the King.

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I thought we didn't negotiate with terrorists. Rof.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

shaharazade's picture

How many people do you know that are pulling down $100K annually who don't live in $300K+ houses? We don't pull down $100k between us and yet we live in a house that's current value is 500,000$ and is going up. We we bought a house in 1992 for 72,000$. It was an old wreck of a beauty, we fixed it sort of..

Decades later if we tried to buy this house today we would not even qualify for a loan as our income is less then 100,000$ and our money is worth less. This is funny money. The debt we all supposedly owe is not my fucking debt. Hey 'I didn't make no call to Africa' as Franklyn Ajaye once said about his phone bill.

I live with and love a mathematician man and even he in his number riddled head cannot make sense of this shell game they call they economy. The Consciousness of a Liberal dude Kurgman, has showed his true colors and they aren't liberal not one bit. Anyway thanks for weighing in ek. Me I'm just waiting for a trust busting bully bully pulpit guy. Not even Bernie can do this no one can except 'we the people' and were too chicken with good reason.

Do you want to die or hold onto your equity your precious place on this slippery scam as unusable as it is. My father in law told me once that his bro in law should just commit suicide because he had no equity. Me I don't buy it on the other hand I am not about to leave my house hard won and turn it over to the flippers of mass destruction. Man how to pay my taxes cause I make under 100,000 and yet live in this so called economy that relegates you to a loser and irresponsible person if you can't pay the vig. for a debt you never uncured.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

I remember anti-trust laws.

Good times.

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Unfortunately part of the requirements is Econ 101.

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Wait just a minute, the treasurey does not print money! we gave that to right to a private bank called the Federal Resure central bank under the banking act of 1913 and then amended in 1933 all the treasurey does is monitoring and accounting! The federal government pays interest on money the treasurey should creating by printing money it's self. It's all scam for the fed to create money out of thin air to lend to us at interest!!

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The Fed is a weird public/private hybrid. It is not simply privately owned.

It was created by an act of Congress and can be dissolved by an act of Congress and remits all its' profits to Treasury.

For a country that creates its' own money, government bonds are just like cash with a future face value that pays interest now.

You ask "who prints our money?". You should ask "who prints our treasury bonds?" as well.

Treasury creates bonds out of thin air, the Central Bank (which is a non-profit, not a private entity) creates reserves out of thin air.

They are both a form of money, or have "moneyness".

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n/t

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

I'm ek hornbeck, shallow and one dimensional.

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I log in for ten minutes and two posts grab me and don't let go? I check the handle and it's the same guy. Hmmm. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.
Hope to read more soon.

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

Pluto's Republic's picture

A friend of this blog, an important player and innovator in the developing years at Daily Kos, and a keen observer of the things people do in cyberspace. I once figured that he was the virtual catcher in the rye.

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shaharazade's picture

when I first arrived at dkos. He had a welcome new users dairy that was for a long time in the FAQ. I agree with Pluto a virtual catcher in the rye, not to mention a great writer with style and wit.

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Few places over the last 7 years have given as bad financial advice as the people who write for Zero Hedge. Disaster!!!Coming Soon!!!

As some point you would figure out they have no clue.

But they do. People actually pay money for their crappy financial advice.

And obviously being wrong about just about everything since 2009 is no barrier to them offering economic advice too.

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When you get back to quality employment pre-Reagan/Obama, wake me up.
If you're talking about the stock market, the economy will tank again. It is just one way they redistribute the money up. The only ones making any real money are the people investing in Wall Street. Wall Street always wins thanks to the Clintons.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Pluto's Republic's picture

…I looked up the combined earned income of everybody in the US in 1999, which was $5 trillion dollars. Then I compared that number to the 2014 number which was $15 trillion dollars.

So yes, it's a very good recovery.

Didn't everybody's income triple over the past 15 years?

And, if not, where's all that money going?

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