The Hail Mary and the Decline of Empire

Here's Richard Wolff, describing the predicted effect of Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies upon the American economy. The whole thing is three hours but it's broken up into sections and don't worry, you won't have to watch for long past my bookmark to get the point:

Let's explore Wolff's metaphor of a "Hail Mary" pass a bit more. There are only two scenarios wherein the Trump tariffs strategy will work:

1) all of the other countries (even, or especially, China) decide that tariffs are bad and it is up to them to save the US from itself, and decide to grant the US great deals on their goods and services.

2) Trump is spontaneously kicked out of the White House for "his" actions and an anti-Trump regime takes power in a coup d'etat.

And that's it. Otherwise we're looking at America in coffee withdrawal and dollar hegemony going down the tubes. Oh and no car sales, either. You know China? The ruling class there can just sell off the Bank of China's dollars and dollar-denominated assets. They can dump them on the open market if they want. They've been doing it slowly for some time now, so as not to disturb the market unduly, but they could do it all at once if they wanted.

And remember that "Trump gives up on tariffs" is not a success option, though that might happen too. "Trump gives up on tariffs" will simply mean a less stable business environment than the one that we would have seen had Trump not proposed tariffs in the first instance.

I can only conclude that we are being intentionally confused as to what is going on. Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor call it "end times fascism.' But the authors might themselves be confused to some small extent, which is not surprising, since everyone is confused. It is hard to tell PR apocalypse apart from the real thing now. What is really going on is a compound crisis. Oh, sure, we might all be impoverished as a result. But to a very large extent we are already there.

Perhaps this is another example of how we are being continually threatened with something that is already happening. Remember last year's election? "Omigod Trump might win!" endlessly repeated by people who, if they had really been afraid of a Trump victory, would not be running Biden/ Harris against him. Think of how this looks: "Omigod something that's already happening might happen!"

I never thought much of the supposed appeal of horror movies. Is it that people actually want to be manipulated by something frightening? Why, when such manipulation is already happening to them right now in real life? The point of decline-era film is that the well-paid camera-operators are going to show you something bright and sunny that doesn't happen in real life, and so for instance back in the Nineties and Zeros you had a TV show called "Friends," marketed to people who didn't have friends. That, I understand.

Share
up
9 users have voted.

Comments

snoopydawg's picture

.

on Nima and Galloway too. Check Thursday and Friday OTs.

Michael has written it out plainly for me to understand. I’ve said before that math and statistics makes my brain hurt. Not an exaggeration. Very uncomfortable.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04/michael-hudson-return-of-the-rob...

America’s anti-trust legislation was enacted to deal with this problem, and the original 1913 income tax applied only to the wealthiest 2 percent of the population. It fell (as noted above) mainly on financial and real estate wealth and monopolies – financial interest, land rent and monopoly rent – not on labor or most businesses. By contrast, Trump’s plan is to replace taxation of the wealthiest rentier classes with tariffs paid mainly by American consumers. To share his belief that national prosperity can be achieved by tax favoritism for his Donor Class by untaxing their rentier income, it is necessary to block awareness that such a fiscal policy will prevent the re-industrialization of America that he claims to want.

He goes back to when America became the industrial power and what rules were put in place that broke up the Gilded Age and he explains how Trump is taking us back to it. Trump doesn’t give a tinker’s damn about the working class. If he did he wouldn’t be firing tens of thousands of workers. He isn’t going to bring back jobs because he and his friends would have to invest in public infrastructure….

I give it 6 months until his supporters take their blinders off and see that he’s no different from Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama/Biden. Then what?

up
10 users have voted.

To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.

- Kevin Alfred Strom

snoopydawg's picture

.

Brian Berletic

While this seems to at first suggest a general re-industrialization of America’s economy, none of the actual measures required to do so are discussed with any serious attention – measures such as the sweeping education reforms and massive state investment in infrastructure and industry required to actually re-industrialize America.

The policies described within the pages of Project 2025 and now being implemented further under the current US administration are meant instead to disrupt global economic activity including trade and industry, particularly those of China, while compelling industry abroad to be moved to the United States.

Brian discusses the difficulties of building a semiconductor facility in Arizona because of the lack of skilled workers.

How many people have already lost their jobs and how many people will lose their jobs? Thousands of people in DC are trying to sell their homes because Trump fired them. How many families are in dire straits? MAGA thinks they deserve it because they didn’t object when MAGA lost their jobs because of the vaccine mandates. What phase of the class war is it when it’s the classes fighting each other instead of fighting the parasite class that’s fighting against them?

up
11 users have voted.

To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.

- Kevin Alfred Strom

@snoopydawg

What phase of the class war is it when it’s the classes fighting each other instead of fighting the parasite class that’s fighting against them?

The old line sums it up -- I can always get half the people to keep the other half under control.

The politics of personality is a guaranteed loser for people who are not already wealthy.

Which begs the question of what will "we " do about the Orange Fart Cloud other than fuss and fume?

Nine years into the Trump Era and how's the fussing and fuming working out?

up
9 users have voted.

I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

Cassiodorus's picture

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg I'm imagining a conversation:

"blah blah blah what Trump is trying to do blah blah blah"

*cough*

"No, that's not what he's trying to do. Please consider this Brian Berletic interview...

up
6 users have voted.

"Our Left is out to lunch" -- Richard Wolff

to watch an entire nation give itself an ice pick lobotomy.

up
2 users have voted.