Open Thread - Thurs 08 Aug 2024 - Economics Anyone?
Economics Anyone?
The American stock market crashed slightly on Monday. It was the sharpest decline in two years. In Japan, the decline was much worse, as the Japanese stock markets had their worst day since 1987.
Editorial Cartoon from the Southern Utah Independent.
On Tuesday everything basically returned to 'normal'... maybe. Whatever normal is. The economy's growth seems to be slowing, inflation is real, the job market isn't that great and a recession may be coming. The experts aren't so sure if normal is coming back, and neither am I.
In last Tuesday's Evening Blue's the wonderful writer, Joe Shikspack, linked to several articles which discuss and explain a bit about this recent financial turmoil. I thought the article by Ian Welsh entitled 'Big Picture Financial Collapse' was pretty good. Welsh looks at the bigger picture of the coming financial collapse and I think his points about what will cause that collapse are good: 1. real industry is offshored, mostly to China, 2. the pre-80's bull market was due to government policy, like making stock buybacks illegal, and that policy has been gone for a long time, 3. the government's response to the 2008 financial collapse was stupid (ok, that's my evaluation word, not Ian's), leaving the same people who caused the collapse in charge and further enlarging their businesses and so on, and 4. the decline of US dollar hegemony.
Ian finishes by writing:
We’re at the end of somewhere between two and five centuries of European/Western world superiority and dominance. It’s going to suck for Europe, the Anglosphere and most of our allies. There’s just no way around that, and the decision points are past. A recovery is theoretically possible, and I could even write an article giving the outlines of what’s necessary, but there’s no political possibility of doing it and our current elites are too incompetent to make it work anyway. A revolution which throws out our entire leadership class is a pre-condition and by the time we got that done, the day would have passed anyway.
All of which is, I suppose, just a long way of saying “economic decline sucks and isn’t going to stop.”
I hate to say it, but I can't disagree. I don't know that economic decline is going to be really bad quite soon, I doubt it. But it is coming, and young adults and kids today will be experiencing it, even if we older people pass on before it gets super awful.
Thanks for reading! Here's the open thread - remember, everything is interesting if you dive deep enough, so tell us about where you're diving!
Comments
Happy Thursday!
Hope everything is going well for everyone!
Here, it's been strange. Last night before dark I found two huge branches on one of our apple trees broken. They'd broken because they had so many apples on them. Now, it is about 3 weeks early for the first ripening, normally, but, these apples are big and ripe and... weird. THey do not have that tart/sweet bite apples get after a light frost, of course. And they are way too early, but they are ripe. I ate one. So I'll be cleaning up those broken branches and picking apples, I guess, today.
Wishing everyone a great day and post about whatever is going on. We wanna know!
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Hmmmm. It's been raining apples here lately,
but they're way undersized. In fact, I've been thinking of thinning them a bit.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
We thin ours, sometimes...
This time I got caught off guard though, I simply didn't realize how many apples are on the trees! And it's way early, they seem to be about ready to harvest, but we are a month to two months out from the first frost. Usually they are ready after the first frost. So weird.
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Bidenomics had been touted as a great thing
.
.
almost up until he dropped out. Whatever the stock market shows does not
relate to us common folk. Everyone but the very rich have noticed extreme
cost of living increases. Not a very good selling point to the masses. And the
skyrocketing deficit does not portend well either.
Enjoy your apple harvest and thanks for the OT!
Bidenomics...
How can people even think it was real? He wasn't 'in there' for many years really, prior to him dropping out. Ohh well.
Great music vid, btw. Thanks for the link!
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
This is
the new normal. As far as I can tell, the old normal is not going to be coming back. We've crossed the Rubicon, there: the next step in the evolution of this country will be the completion of the collapse. We are now experiencing end-stage greed, and sampling its many and varied fruits. The stock market was only rescued temporarily by huge infusions of free money from the various central banking entities (especially in Japan), which the Expensive People are pocketing as fast as they can. It hasn't bottomed out yet.
I think that we are also experiencing end-stage vindictiveness on the part of the dem administration. Seeing the bullshit that is being pulled on Gabbard and Ritter, I think that they have truly and finally come to understand that all is lost- and they've decided to do as much damage to all of those that they believe to be their enemies as is possible within the bounds of lawfare, before they can't any more.
The unfortunate thing is that everyone is their enemy- so those efforts will do nothing but hasten the collapse. Yay team, I guess.
It is like the line from a book I read years ago: "He attempted to commit suicide by drinking a bottle of drain cleaner. Which was most amusing, given that he was composed primarily of the same materials that typically clog drains..." The collapse will have to happen before Our Beloved Gummint can be brought back under control.
Will it be nuclear war, civil war, or both? Doesn't really matter at this point. I just hope that I get around to expiring before we complete our transition into either Rwanda, or a fused-silica parking lot.
On a more pleasant note, it looks as if we might actually have a tomato or two ripen before Labor Day, because first frost won't be long after. We have lots of little green tomatoes, and big beautiful plants, but nothing ripe even in August (and they are all Early Girls). But I still hold out some hope. Gotta look forward to something, amirite?
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
I don't think you need to worry about a nuclear attack
....although if there was a nuclear war — I certainly wouldn't want to be in the US with all the Supersonic incoming.
I think widespread economic devastation will be the first sign. Neither Party will lift a finger to help the People. The world will learn a lot about gun control.
Looking forward to tomatoes...
is entirely valid, and something I do as well (after the apple harvest, I think
Your other points in this comment are valid too. I think those in charge don't really care what happens, they will make it out unless they get struck by a bomb, or maybe the people rise in a rebellion. The 'little people' also don't care, how can they when they gotta struggle to get by? Economic mess, here we come!
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Hmmm. Today's schedule, agenda and activity is looking
to be odds and ends and snippets of this and that. Ditto commentary. I heard that there were rumors that the US economy was slowing, or that US economic expansion was slowing and what immediately came to mind was Dorothy Parker's outburst upon hearing that Calvin Coolidge had died "How can they tell?"
be well and have a good one
edit: fixed typos
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
'How can they tell?'
Yep, that made me laugh! Thanks!
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Good morning, sima!
Here is some new normal: We are on a vacation, thought about making it a quick meal night instead of cooking. KFC had this sale on an 8 piece chicken tender bucket with sides. We called, discovered the sale price was $34.00. We went to the grocery store, bought food, made enough tacos for 2 nights for about $15.
We did some hiking yesterday, another hike is planned for this afternoon. Parks are irresistible.
Whatever tomatoes remain on our vines will be picked by my secretary. Hope she and her kids will enjoy them.
My hope is that my local bank will remain solvent. I hope!
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Want my local credit union...
to remain solvent too. It would be nice. Hiking sounds fun! Nikko and I did a bit of beach walking today. That was good. It was his first time on the beach.
About the KFC... I'm not surprised at the price. Remember when two could dine out for a nice dinner for around 50$? Not anymore!
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
The Feds are trying to corral Ritter
.
Selective enforcement. What about the thousands of elected individuals acting on behalf of
Israel. Is that not a foreign government? Try informing the public about that.
I gotta hand it to Trump
for openly admitting his EV policy had to change from "they are junk!" to "they are good!" because Musk is supporting him for Prez.
No moral or economic grounds, no change of heart about going green.
Nope. Campaign contributions.
Follow the money.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Follow the Money...
ain't that always the truth?
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
I am concerned
for Ritter's safety.
I know several men who traveled to Russia, came home with a Russian bride. Are they being watched?
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Probably they are...
Long ago, when my parents moved to the PacNW they ended up on a watchlist because the government was scared that they moved here to join a religious sect. They didn't, and they never would have, and they did NOT move up here because of religion - they moved up here because it was not silicon valley, heh. But their actions and everything were watched for years.
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
It would be interesting to see them actually try somebody
like Ritter, because their whole case is based on the fact that he disagrees with the official narrative and hence must be on somebody's payroll and the obvious defense, which Ritter is sure to raise, is that he has an ethical and moral obligation to counter the official lies and misrepresentations and to spread the truth.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Didn't work very well for Assange
.
.
Going against the grain of the empire has its risks. Just ask Jill or Tulsi.
Only the loyal are allowed a voice anymore, it seems.
A video featuring Jeffery Sachs dropped about two hours ago
.
In this interview video, Dr Sachs spends the first few moments recapping US history from about 1890 to the present moment. His narrative then continues covering the current policies of the US Neocon Coup government, which explains the approaching and apparent failure of the US economy.
The fact is the US economy suffered two self-inflicted fatal blows since 2018 — in the form of two xenophobic trade-war policies against China. The delusional Neocons, operating under both the Trump and Biden presidencies, have succeeded in destroying the US economy completely, with no hope for recovery or reform at all.
.
.
I'll discuss these economy-killing policies later if I can. The first policy, sometimes called America's McCarthyism 2, was enacted during the first (and probably the only) term of Donald Trump's presidency. It was called the China Initiative**. It was suddenly ended in February 2022, but very permanent damage was done, which has swiftly compounded in the scientific community. The second deadly policy was the Chips Act, which has now boomeranged into an economic disaster for the US.
This is all starting to play out right now. So, do believe your lying eyes amidst the nonstop propaganda.
.
________________________
.
If you don't mind seeing things
.
.
upside down and backwards, official statements are utterly clarifying
as to what the agenda is. Screw China? Sure, but screw the US as well.
Screw Russia? Sure, but screw the EU too. No wonder BRICS is popular.
Surprise! Blockade won't work
語必忠信 行必正直
Trying to blockade China
will result in a lot of US warships undergoing prompt one-way conversions into submarines.
The Chinese have lots of actual submarines (the ones that can actually surface again!) in those waters, and this is exactly what they are for. Attempting a blockade is an act of war, and will be met with at least an equal act of war. It's a great way to convert a fleet into a reef. They both have two "e"s and an "f", already.
The stupidity here knows no bounds.
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
if the banking cartel
.
.
had their way (almost)
financial blockades would ring the world
curbing international trade in favor of
shielding interests
military assist
Oh the bankers think it's a great idea
lol. It's a case of delusional thinking.
*To Defeat China in War, Strangle its Economy: Expert: Forbes August 24, 2020, by David Axe “Editors Pick"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/08/24/to-defeat-china-in-war-...
語必忠信 行必正直
Silly Idea
.
.
to defeat China in a major war using trade?
Will not work. Countries will self immolate by
trying to kill China's trade. Don't buy it.
Smoke screen for failed diplomacy.
Stupidity indeed...
Don't any of TPTB know history, or anything? Even 'recent' history, like WWII or something? Sheez.
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Reciprocity in China-Russia relationship
I visited the Japan in Focus journal last night and read a June 2024 article by Mel Gurtov about how Russia is so dependent on China. Accordingly the author develops his thesis that the US/west needs to have a more positive relationship with China in order to coax the great power away from Russia, etc.
The China-Russia Partnership and U.S. Policy Options
The article on the Russian China partnership by Gurtov emphasizes what he calls China's leverage over Russia characterizing Putin as the "supplicant." I think this is a one sided perspective on the relationship which allows the analyst to entertain the notion the wishful US/Japanese aspiration that the two powers can be separated somehow. As pointed out in the video I posted above on the "strangling China" naval strategy of the US, the discussion of China's vulnerability to a US imposed naval blockade was offset substantially not only by domestic resources and economic initiatives of the Chinese, but also increased availability of Russia trade, trade routes, and natural resources. To this extent, Russia is not a "supplicant" of China but a strategic partner in a reciprocal relationship in economic terms. In fact, the discussion in the video I posted above about blockade considerations for China in substantial part, describes economic relations with Russia. The video describes how that relationship has only grown stronger as the destabilizing US influences, including economic, political and military initiatives in East Asia aimed against China have progressed.
語必忠信 行必正直
I guess that they don't have war criminal Netenyahoo's
phone number.
Meanwhile!
Obviously the puppets are following their marching orders.
blame it on the mayor
.
.
G7 can fantasize control
notwithstanding with a
shrinking base
Hahahaha!
n/t
If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so
Nasdaq still down in correction territory
Generally my stuff goes up or down more than the nasdaq but at a similar rate. S&P, Dow, looking more normal. Last week had some bad numbers for big tech and then Thursday was down quite a bit, then unemp was high enough Friday to invoke the Sahm Rule and people flipped out, because the Sahm Rule is pretty predictive.
Ms Sahm herself said this time might be different as household surveys were pushing the unemp numbers and they include tons of immigrants many of whom might not yet have been absorbed by the economy.
It's hard to get a real number on immigrants. 300 thousand in the past year via flying in from the four countries, complete with visas already in hand. The border itself there are also probably numbers of "asylum" visas which also come with a work permit though there is a time lag. Then the gotaways, which are also very high. Maybe 5 million altogether, since 20, but who knows. Things didn't get busy until the end of 22 that I noticed.