Open Thread - Thurs 09 May 2024 - Is the Economy Really Good?

9 May 2024 - Is the Economy Really Good?

People's perceptions seem to be that the economy isn't that great. David Sirota, amongst others, did an article about this last month: 'Why Are Biden’s Economic Poll Numbers So Bad?'. The subtitle basically says it all: Economic policy has been erased from the political discourse, which is a problem for Biden — and for democracy.

I think this bit from the article says a lot:

American politics of late is a forum almost exclusively for the culture war, and rarely if ever a forum to discuss — or combat — the class war.

Ain't that the truth?!

Prices! From vecteezy.com

Another article from a few month's ago, from Slate, says much the same thing: 'The U.S. Economy’s Rebound Since COVID Is Kind of Incredible. Why Doesn’t Anyone Seem to Realize This?' the subtitle: 'There is a distinctly political tenor to Biden’s trouble on the issue that defies material conditions.'

But is the trouble that Biden is having on this issue only political? As Sirota says, there is no room to discuss the class war in politics these days. And maybe, the economic perceptions people have are related to class. Just maybe...

As a personal example: Grocery prices are still sky high. I'm basically on a fixed income and a larger amount of my income goes to food now. This wasn't the case a few years ago. Yes, inflation has gone down, but it's still there - even if it's lower, and therefore prices have not gone down. So the economy doesn't seem that great to me, at least in respect to prices of things consumers buy, like food (more on food inflation), energy, housing or medical care. See the graphs at the Bureau of Labor Statistics for current inflation according to the Consumer Price Index. What's included in the index is explained in this older article from 2021.

Of course, wages have gone up faster than inflation (supposedly, although this more detailed look at wages versus inflation from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) doesn't seem quite as rosy for recent numbers, and this article on how rising wages haven't helped workers is interesting), unemployment is very low , and as the Slate article says, 'The economy is even outperforming among communities that are often excluded from boom-time gains'. So maybe my perception of recent economic trouble for the country is wrong, or a hold over from the Covid economic shocks. What do you guys think?

Thanks for reading! Here's the open thread - and remember, everything is interesting if you dive deep enough, so tell us about where you're diving!

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Sima's picture

I'm all in! We've got nice weather (here at least, I know a lot of people are suffering really bad weather) with sunshine and everything green. I'm working outside, and the scratching is done! Although, I got a mosquito bite yesterday. And that seems a bit early!

What's up with you? I hope everyone is doing as well as can be, and having some fun prepping for the weekend! Tell us about whatever is up!

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12 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

chica!
I have a bench trial this morning, will hopefully have time this afternoon and for sure this evening to check out all the linked articles.
One sure way I know things are going south is how often I hear prospective clients if I will make a payment plan instead of coming up with a lump sum retainer. This is happening all the time of late. Also, often people pay with credit cards. This did not happen even 5 years ago.
With the massive floods causing people to lose their homes and all contents, stretches of days where they could not get to their place of employment, I expect things to be very economically bleak in East Texas.
Sima, it is great to hear your rash is under control. Some folks can ignore itching, but some of us get so distracted by it, we can't think straight! I am an itch crazed woman.
Thanks for the OT.

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14 users have voted.

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Sima's picture

@on the cusp
Very clear signs that the economy isn't that great for a lot of people. The flooding and home destruction is going to make things so bad, in places all over the country, but definitely in East Texas. It hurts.

I hope the bench trial went well and you aren't having any itches. They SUCK!!!

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

QMS's picture

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The economic indicators do not properly reflect the reality of roughly 80% of
lower income people. The stock market is primarily for wealthy investors.
Employment figures are fudged and do not consider wages and benefits.
GDP is is also cherry picked statistics, broad estimates based on comparisons
of factors unrelated to the strength of the currency.

Your mention of class benefits rings true. If the upper 20% of earners are in the
average range of a million dollars and the average income of the 80% is about
5% of that bounty, then there are vastly more poor people than wealthy.

Our household is firmly below the 50% national average. We definitely notice
price increases. Wage increases have not kept up with cost of living for at
least 50 years in my experience.

For the spinmeisters to toot Bidens horn on economic reality is just bunk.
The contortions of economic 'experts' primarily obscure the facts
on the ground.

Glad your itchies have subsided.
Thanks for the OT!

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11 users have voted.
Sima's picture

@QMS
Making a million a year. It's nuts to think people can even do that. Just nuts. And I think someone making 100k a year is doing well, heh.

Ohh well, we just have to keep on keeping on. Accept that we aren't in 'the important' class, and force changes when/if it's ever possible. After reading and studying history for so long, I'm not sure it is possible to make that change for any length of time.

Most economic numbers that are put out by the government, I can't even understand what they mean. That's probably by design too, eh?

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

for an itchless day!

speaking of prepping for the
weekend-absolutely grab some supplies
if you can-we have Four cme’s headed
for us(full halos on soho) video below
Is less than three and a half minutes
well worth your time
Thanks for the ot sima

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9QCA3jouCKk

tried to embed, video not supported
click the link do a deep dive and
prepare to be gobsmacked

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10 users have voted.

Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

usefewersyllables's picture

@Tall Bald and Ugly

the solar X-ray flux with my little radiation observatory, and those X-class flares have been pretty good ones. I can easily follow them with my terrestrial detectors- they are well above the local background, and have started rivaling the magnitude of the radon snowouts over the winter. And we're not at the peak for this solar max, yet.

You know, a mini Carrington event might wake up some of the fat-dumb-and-happy rich people. A *real* Carrington event would screw everything up royally, of course- all of the communications infrastructure that we rely upon would be wiped out. And the power grid goes without saying. But a simple little filament of >10MeV protons squirted right at Washington DC would be very amusing to watch...

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

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8 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

snoopydawg's picture

@Tall Bald and Ugly

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8 users have voted.

There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.

Sima's picture

@Tall Bald and Ugly
Tornadoes and flooding and... gads. I agree, stock up when possible. Thank you for the video, is is very educational and scary!

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2 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

usefewersyllables's picture

is doing exactly what it is supposed to: enrich the oligarchs, and starve everyone else.

I haven't had a raise in 8 years at my little company. I've now sent out over 700 resumes over the last 5 years or so, with only three callbacks, and no actual interviews. Nobody will hire a past-retirement-age engineer at any price, regardless of knowledge and experience. My company knows that they have me by the balls, since they know I can never afford to retire, and there's nowhere else to go. They can just laugh at me when I ask for additional compensation. And I know that I'm not alone in this dilemma.

This is what the economy is supposed to be doing. It is going exactly to plan. And yet ordinary people will still vote for the uniparty. Which means that it will not stop, nor will it get better. It just gets worse from here.

The one bright spot in those clouds is that I paid off my last outstanding debt on May 1st. So, finally and at long last, I've opted out of the interest-paying part of the economy, at least.

I can also understand why there's been an upsurge in deaths-by-despair. I'm very glad that I'm not just starting out in a career, with starry-eyed visions of a house and kids and a cat in the yard. Not gonna happen, unless one is prepared to out-sociopath the people who are already in place, pulling the ladder up after themselves. There's your economy, right there.

It may well be that the big white flash is the best currently-available outcome.
Not in a good mood this morning. Not at all.

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12 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

QMS's picture

@usefewersyllables
-
-
that is an important step IMO. Wish I could say the same for my status.
Working until you die is the new normal. Not a great prospect, but aside
from theft, extortion or maybe going the lawsuit route what are the options
available to the common working man?

good luck

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10 users have voted.
Sima's picture

@QMS
So that you too can leave the debt stuff behind!

up
1 user has voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

Sima's picture

@usefewersyllables
Yep, your comment and thoughts here are so spot on. I am glad you paid off the last of your debt. I did that a while ago (had to pay down 10k in debt on a credit card, it took years), but it's been really, really hard in the last couple of years to not put debt back on credit cards and so on. I have to do it short term sometimes, pay off necessary car repairs, medical emergencies, etc. I have gotten so I just say to myself, ok, pay it off over a few months and buy nothing for those months. I also, because I'm me, make out a plan to pay off the debt and interest on it, and follow it to the letter.

I'm sorry you can't get a job where they will pay you an honest wage. Working until death, that seems to be how the richy-riches want it, for everyone else, not them, of course.

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2 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

There is no economic war, we lost that a long time ago under Reagan and Clinton. just like there is no war in Israel, it's in the Palestinian territory. We're economically Gaza. Whatever business interests want to happen our government is there to assure that it gets done. The whole Tik Tok thing...sure the Chinese gov. is interested in our data, but I'm sure there are US buyers just salivating at the thought of the government taking it away and giving it to one of them. So THEY can exploit our data, and us. When we're not cannon fodder, we're Wall Street fodder.

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11 users have voted.
QMS's picture

@Snode
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damage to the US economy by some dream of world hegemony
the dollar could float without the sanctimonious sanction game
but no, as someone stated: the arrogance and hubris of the ruling
classes have fogged their glasses - can't see the locomotive train
wreck heading their way (or pretend not to).

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7 users have voted.
Sima's picture

@Snode
I so agree. I think that needs to be made into a poster for a protest or a slogan. Not that most people can or will pay attention, they are struggling to survive like the oligarchs want them to struggle.

up
3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

enhydra lutris's picture

So wages -- Employment Cost and ECI. You get a $5/week raise, reported by employer and every news source in the country; no extra cash + $3.5/week more for health insurance (which went up $4/week, leaving you 50 cents/week further in the whole) and $1.5 per week increase in "deferred compensation" which you not only can't live on, but which you also might never receive. What you got was 50 cents more out of pocket per week.

Stock market is up? Who cares? Do you have a fistful of stocks that a) went up and b) will stay up and c) will pay healthy dividends (remember those?)

Housing starts are up? Meh.

Consumer spending is up? Of course it is, since prices are up. Consumer debt is too, funny thing.

Employment is up, of course, more people need multiple jobs, more employers are hiring more part timers, more people are needing assistive care and child care, more people are telemarketing, etc.

More people are working longer, harder, for less. More elderly are not retiring, or, when forcefully retired, are taking up menial jobs, or coming out of retirement to make ends meet

be well and have a good one

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7 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Sima's picture

@enhydra lutris
Thank you for it. I love how you explain what happens when someone gets a 5$ a week raise, and somehow, surprisingly, ends up in the hole by 50 cents. It is so true!

One thing that really made me go, 'Wow, never thought of it that way', was your comment on consumer spending. Of course it's up, prices are up, doh! Dunno why I never thought of it like that.

Anyway, thank you for this. Have a great weekend Smile

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4 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

crimes.

They have plenty of accomplices aiding the Genocide!

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5 users have voted.
Sima's picture

@humphrey
that the point of all of this genocide was to make a place for new Israeli settlers to take over. And so, they are. And the genocide makes it easier, as does all the destruction. Just have to clean up the debris and the bodies and then the settlers have some nice new places! And of course, our elites are ok with it all because they will probably be able to own the land the settlers are taking over. Or am I being too cynical with that?

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4 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

Pluto's Republic's picture

.....it cannot produce enough income to allow all the population to achieve a modest level of self-sustaining prosperity. Throughout US history, when a very wealthy class is allowed to form (and capture much of nation's gains in wealth) a large percentage of the remaining population is forced into abject poverty. The economic imbalance occurs because insufficient taxes are collected from those who capture most of the income. As a result, society and infrastructure begin to decay. The nation begins to acquire debt to compensate for the lack of tax revenues.

The US economy is always good for those at the top — even when the newspaper say the economy is bad. For those at the bottom, the economy is always bad, even when it is good. There ia no meaningful trickle-down effect when the economy is booming because the nation's gains are captured and hoarded at the top. That has always been the accepted American way. In a real economic crisis, financial regulations may be enacted in order to force some of the captured gains to flow down to support the people's economy. But these regulations are overturned by the legislature as soon as possible.

In recent decades, legislators learned they can create the illusion of an good economy by pushing absurdly massive budgets for the US Departments of War and Empire (State, Pentagon, and Intelligence). The US War departments, in turn, funnel the money to America's largest private industries, which specialize in weapons, warfare, aggressive technologies, bioweapons, pharmaceuticals, and systems of widespread death and environmental destruction. In fact, the US is the single payer for many of these industries.

(This communist-style, government-funded, "private" industries and businesses, taking order from government authorities is the very same government-business partnership that China uses to steer domestic production to meet its own strategic needs — which the US government screeches and complains about, and imposes spurious sanctions on China that tangles the global supply chains and imports inflation on US consumers.)

This government-industry 'collusion', however, gives off signals that look like a good economy and can produce local gains in profit for corporations and investors. We know these gains that collect at the top are significant because we are now producing billionaires rather than millionaires.

The profoundly corrupt US will never be changed or reformed from inside the United States. The corruption will be with us for the rest of our lives.

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8 users have voted.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
QMS's picture

@Pluto's Republic
-
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the necessary transformations the US 'economy' needs to support its population.
Fortunately for the ROW, countries like CHI, RUS, and some other countries have
morally shifted their ideals toward internal sustainment and are using the BRIC
model to finance without paying the western cut. We are bound to suffer the
crimes of the FED banks and Wall Street among others. Bubbles POP!

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8 users have voted.
Sima's picture

@Pluto's Republic
Thank you for this, I learned a lot! This is so very true 'The economic imbalance occurs because insufficient taxes are collected from those who capture most of the income'. Only rebellion or the threat thereof seems to change this. Then things are good for a while until the 1% (or 5% or whatever) start pushing for lower and lower taxes on themselves and it all starts over again.

Anyway, I'm reading this over again and again, just to take in every point you've made. Thank you!!

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4 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

usefewersyllables's picture

For those at the bottom, the economy is always bad, even when it is good. There ia no meaningful trickle-down effect when the economy is booming because the nation's gains are captured and hoarded at the top.

By design. Spot on, and a perfect description of conditions on the ground. Well said.

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8 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

Pluto's Republic's picture

@usefewersyllables

I tried to express the way that ordinary consumers experience the US economy — and I steered clear of economic speculation.

::

I'm not as pessimistic about the US economy as I may sound. I don't believe that the US economy will suddenly collapse without warning. The US economy is fairly battle hardened and has been through a lot during the brief history of this country. Not even gross incompetence at the Federal Reserve could bring it down. I am not a big believer in Executive powers. We now have a bench of mental defectives who are Presidential hopefuls. But US Presidents are tightly managed. They have never been given a special button to push if they decide its time to blow up the world — let alone the economy. That's just silly. Presumably, the button narrative made the American people feel secure.

However, the fact remains that the US economy has not really changed or been reformed, in alluthis time — iuno matter what we have done to it. We've undermined our own economy with steep tax cuts and loopholes for the very wealthy. We passed a stack of regulations to hold back the worst of the financial grifting on Wall Street, and then revoked all of them and and brought back the grifters. We allowed the Pentagon to misplace $23 trillion dollars and. still. the economy doesn't miss a beat. Add in debt-inducing tax cuts, the off-budget forever wars, the evaporation of the Petro Dollar standard, and now global de-dollarization is under way — and we see nothing more than a flurry of crackpot investment newsletters in our spam box. It seems that American investors are still all in.

An old teacher of mine once told me that predatory capitalism was the strongest economy of them all. It could never really be reformed from its pitiless destruction of people's lives when they hit hard times. But the people learned to ignore the predators and they never evolved defenses to protect themselves. When they stumbled into financial trouble, they disappeared without fuss and their assets were reassimilated by the Borg.

That sounds about right for a nation with none of the Declared Human Rights of 1948 in their Constitution.

.

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6 users have voted.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
Sima's picture

@Pluto's Republic
What a very insightful way of briefly explaining our economy and economic problems. Thanks.

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

I have failed you. Sort of.
My intentions were to read all kinds of eye-glazing-over (to me)articles about qe, hedge funds, de-dollarization, and so on, that never really were my thing, and just settled on what comments Pluto's Republic wrote.
Pluto makes it real!

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6 users have voted.

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Sima's picture

@on the cusp
Pluto's Republic did make it very well, and we both got to avoid more eye-glazing-over articles. This is a good thing, especially before the weekend!

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4 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

@Sima Economics as a science was never ever my thing. I completed 3 of 4 semesters of an MBA degree when I realized I just couldn't throw my heart and soul into that field. I think it has ever so much to do with my search for history, for meaning, the desire to know why we are what we are, and the economics of humanity is always, and will always be, unfortunately, the few stealing and impoverishing the many.
Love your topic though. It brought out the best in Pluto's Republic, reminded me of what my purpose in life is what I believe it is.
Hugs, Ms. Itchy!

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5 users have voted.

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

enhydra lutris's picture

@on the cusp

Economics as a science was never ever my thing.

Good thing since it is not now nor never has been a science. One guy from Ca;, years ago, won some big award for actually using a hint of science, one actual experiment, wow!

be well and have a good one

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4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris I meant to put the word in quotes.
I shall do it now: "science".

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3 users have voted.

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Sima's picture

I found a BP interview with David Sirota about this topic. Posting it here in case you have't seen it, although I bet most have!

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so