Triumph Of The Oligarchs

It's more than likely that you have the wrong impression about the condition of the economy. Most people think we're in a recession, or a depression.
Most people are wrong. We're in a bubble. A massive bubble of historic proportions.
In fact things are so good that some people never want things to change.

In the second quarter 2020 household net worth hit an all-time record.

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At the same time the economy collapsed.
Nearly 4 million people dropped out of the labor force this year.
The drop in the velocity of money was so dramatic that it would indicate we are in a depression.

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So how's this possible?
How can net worth hit all-time highs while money doesn't move in the economy?
I'm sure if I studied Keynes or Ricardo that I would find that you can't have the country get richer with less money changing hands.

Well there is an answer and it involves inequality

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What's happening is that the Federal Reserve is printing money out of thin air and buying trillions of dollars of financial assets that are owned by the top 10%.
They are doing this to inflate asset prices based on the flawed assumptions of the wealth effect and trickle-down economics. Both theories have been proven wrong.
The reality is that it should be called a wealth transfer to the already wealthy. And also a financial bubble.

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And like any financial bubble, this one will pop too. Credit default swaps are collapsing and the banks are preparing for those coming losses.

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So to sum this up, you probably thought the economy was struggling.
In fact these are the good times.
The inevitable financial crash is still in front of us.

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The Liberal Moonbat's picture

And at what point do we decide whether or not we're serious about restoring democracy by whatever means necessary? If that's truly hopeless, where do those of us who have managed to resist the super-disturbing Super Mario Bros.-movie-like forced devolution into peasants go where we can still live the lives our forebears one way or another fought and worked so hard and so long to give us?

On a slightly tangential note: People are starting to talk about being "good ancestors" - this is a good thing, but I smell a note of fatalism about it, and that's no good. Why does nobody talk about being a "good descendant", about not letting the freedom and opportunity that SHOULD be the birthright of all scions of the late 20th Century go to waste just because unworthy oligarchs had other plans? Is this what Ayn Rand was talking about when she made the perverse-sounding claim that the world was "dying of altruism"??? Was she just an awkward and very poorly-timed prophet whose current "wrang-wrang" status will only wind up vindicating her? By asserting our own rights, we affirm them for others; through self-denial and lowering of personal standards, we only drag others down with us. How is the difference between material and abstract goods not obvious to more people???

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15 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

link

Last week, the New York Times’ Emily Flitter, Jeanna Smialek and Stacy Cowley provided an excellent rundown of the dangerous rollbacks of regulations on the big banks by federal regulators appointed by Donald Trump.
...
Many of the rollbacks or watering down of the bank rules have occurred quietly or without the attention of mainstream media. Taken together, the rule changes are striking in their reckless disregard for the safety and soundness of a sector that blew itself up just 12 years ago, taking the U.S. economy and U.S. housing market down with it, while getting propped up with the largest taxpayer and Fed bailout in U.S. history.

The House Financial Services Committee has gotten lost in the high weeds. The issue here should not be about posting margin; the screaming issue is that federal regulators would be insane enough to allow an affiliate within one of the serially-charged Wall Street banks to be acting as a derivative counterparty to another affiliate of the same bank.

The whole purpose of having a counterparty to a derivatives trade is that there is an outside party with the financial wherewithal to make good on that trade.

Making sure that Wall Street banks couldn’t again bring down big financial institutions with derivatives as occurred 2008, is why the financial reform legislation known as Dodd-Frank that was passed by Congress in 2010 required the majority of derivatives to be centrally-cleared by a properly capitalized and approved central clearing facility. This was to be accomplished by 2012. It is now 2020 and this stated legislative intent of Congress has been brazenly ignored by regulators and the big Wall Street banks.

According to the most recent report from the regulator of national banks, the Office of the Comptroller of the currency, this is where things stood as of June 30, 2020:

“In the second quarter of 2020, 40.3 percent of banks’ derivative holdings were centrally cleared…From a market factor perspective, 50.7 percent of interest rate derivative contracts’ notional amounts outstanding were centrally cleared, while very little of the FX derivative market was centrally cleared. The bank-held credit derivative market remained largely uncleared, as 36.0 percent of credit derivative transactions were centrally cleared during the second quarter of 2020.”

Let that sink in for a moment. The most dangerous derivatives – credit derivatives that mainly consist of credit default swaps – are only 36 percent centrally-cleared a decade after the passage of Dodd-Frank.

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20 users have voted.
Granma's picture

Is that they are going to crash and it could happen any time. They sound more like criminals than solid citizen bankers. It seems crazy to blow your own house up but that seems to be what they are doing.

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20 users have voted.
The Liberal Moonbat's picture

@Granma ...can you take an insurance policy out on a national government???

Actually, that seems...incredibly, incredibly American, both in the bad and the good ways. As long as it was something anyone could access and not just oligarchs, I don't even think I'd object. What a great business model for a society in fear of decline! It would even incentivize any such insurance firm to actively invest in saving the country so it wouldn't have to pay out!

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14 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

Human life stands on the shoulders of ALL life on the planet, while it thinks of itself transcendent and God’s “crown of creation”. Likewise, the world's oligarchs see their exceptional wealth as a blessing, an asset, rather than the plague which negates the possibility of a mutually beneficial and sustainable economy.

Changes, both economic and environmental, are already baked in. We humans are exceptional only in our lopsided mix of technological competence and holistic idiocy, combined with twisted belief that our work is God’s work. The stupid, it hurts.

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21 users have voted.

“What the herd hates most is the one who thinks differently; it is not so much the opinion itself, but the audacity of wanting to think for themselves, something that they do not know how to do.”
-Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

Lookout's picture

The ponzi will collapse like all such schemes. The sooner the better.

Everyone needs to prepare. Gardening is a good hobby to take up or expand.

I would also suggest getting some hard assets. Silver is still undervalued IMO.

Thanks for the the clear description of the upward transfer gjohn!

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18 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

In all the discussion of end game capitalism has a recession or depression become meaningless? Have these huge entities controlling power and wealth become "arms merchants", playing both sides in what has turned into economic warfare. It seems they would be in a position to pretty much prosper in good and poor economic conditions and steer the economy to their advantage. From buying politicians to influence regulations and bail outs, to exploiting crisis, everything is win/win, if you're big enough.

If you're in the peasant economy, like me, it's more lose/lose. Mostly, I hate playing "Monopoly", but...I'd love to see an updated version of the game "Monopoly" to include stocks, banking and international trade, specifically designed to encourage tactics and strategy to transfer wealth from our economy to the economic elite. I'd like to see every move in the game come with an unintended consequences card. Maybe we could develop ways to fight back, like the non winners cooperating with each other to survive.

This game of a few squirrels having all the nuts and doing nothing worthwhile with them is getting really old.

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18 users have voted.

may also be what's occurring.

That's what happens when most of the country's resources are funneled to military and weapons interests at the expense of growing and strengthening all else---social wellfare, small business, infrastructure improvement, etc.

Schemes to enrich the already rich. No help for the unemployed. No help for dying businesses.

But the military budget is approved and increased. American military installations in 100+ countries. wtf

Yes, the bubble will burst and if we think of the game of Musical Chairs, even more of us will be cast out.

When we can no longer pay our soldiers, think Rome's end, then the collapse is complete.

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14 users have voted.

NYCVG

@NYCVG
A lot of people focus on late stage capitalism and that is certainly a thing, but I think end of empire is a more compelling and accurate description of our situation.
Some time ago I pointed out the battle of Cap Bon 468 AD.
Rome had created its largest naval armada in its history with more than 1100 ships and tens of thousands of soldiers. But it was defeated decisively. And just eight years later Rome ceased to exist.
It just goes to show that military power does not reflect the health of the nation.

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10 users have voted.
Daenerys's picture

If they can print money to give the top 10% why can't they print money to give to ordinary people? Literally start giving people money, to stay home, to buy necessities; it would go a lot further to help the economy than giving free money to the already rich that will just be hoarded anyway. It would keep the capitalist beast sated.
And now we're up to 22 empty homes for every homeless person (I saw an infographic, so I don't know how accurate it is). The problem is not a housing shortage, it's distribution. Shit, all I want is a place to live with a usable kitchen so I CAN work more. Fuck.

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8 users have voted.

This shit is bananas.