Poll Diving – part 2

More interesting than part 1 and more evidence of a consistent shape/narrative.

1. Another boring “red state.”

Georgia

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 51% and Clinton 46%
Senate – Isaakson 55% (inc R) and Democrat 41%

2020 election polling:

President – Trump 44 to 49% and Biden 46 to 51%
Senate (1) – Perdue 45 to 49% (inc R) and Ossoff 41 to 51%
Senate (2) Warnock (D) will face either Loeffler (inc R) or Collins in a runoff

Whoa – However, the Univ of GA polls have it Trump 48% and Biden 46% and Perdue 49% and Ossoff 41%. Perdue has never been that favored in GA, but as in some other states, DC Democrats take that as a license to shove one of their favored DC swamp creatures into a statewide race. Bad strategy that voters have yet to fall for. Still, the polls are close enough that it got Trump to hold another rally in Georgia a few of days ago.

2. One “red state” and one 2016 “red shift state.”

Arizona

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 49% and Clinton 45%
Senate – McCain 54% (inc R) and Kirkpatrick 41%

2020 election polling:

President – Trump 41 to 46% and Biden 49 to 51%
Senate – McSally 39 to 42% (inc R) and Kelly 50 to 52%

Michigan

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 47.5% and Clinton 47.3%
Senate – none

2020 election polling:

President – Trump 40 to 46% and Biden 48 to 52%
Senate – James 42 to 47% and Peters 43 to 50% (inc D)

One more relevant bit, 2018 gubernatorial election:

Whitmer 53.3%
Schluette 43.8%
Other cons 2.4%

On SARS-CoV2, Cases/M, GA is #10, AZ is #12, and MI is #39. Deaths/M, GA is #13, AZ is #9, and MI is #12. (Case fatality rate: GA 2.2%, AZ 2.5%, and MI 4.6%.) This is impacting the poll numbers in all three states.

Another note on these three states; their US House delegations. GA: 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats. MI 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats. AZ 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

All six of these races are ready to call. Absent any other changes from 2016, flipping AZ and MI changes the EC count to 279 Trump and 259 Biden.

And there he goes again, off to MI and AZ, with NV thrown in as a head fake which he also did in 2016. He still thinks he won in 2016 when the winner was “not Clinton.” His relentless, unwarranted, and despicably mean attacks on Whitmer are not only nonconstructive but may result in a large backlash. “Not Trump” is poised to carry AZ and MI this time. McSally is toast and Peters will be reelected.

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karl pearson's picture

After the 2016 election, I heard someone say, "the good news is she lost; the bad news is he won." As you indicate, Trump never understood why he won.This is why he will lose Nov. 3.

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@karl pearson of Americans find Trump's behavior and ignorance acceptable. Of course tens of millions of Americans are ignorant about Biden's public policy record that is horrible.

Of the races covered so far, one of them is encouraging, Greenfield in IA. Ousting Ernst, McSally and Tillis would be pleasant. A few steps closer to the demise of McConnell. Too bad that would only results in elevating the odious Schumer.

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karl pearson's picture

@Marie I would like to add Susan Collins to your list. After her "Yes" vote on Kavanaugh, I was so disgusted, I contributed to her unnamed opponent and I have never lived in Maine. It would be nice to see my investment pay off.

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@karl pearson a later part. For now let's just say that it's not looking good for Collins.

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(The second tweet clip. Have no idea who's in the first one or how to post without it)

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Would calling from the Oval Office or AF-1 count?

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@Marie that such a call and qui pro pro quo ever happened. "They would wouldn't they." However, it would be foolish to take Trump's comment as factual. He's not creative enough to concoct a hypothetical that has no basis in fact and he clearly used Exxon to illustrate his boast because Exxon wasn't one of the actual participants. He just wanted his cultists to hear that reports of shortfalls in his fundraising aren't true and at the drop of a hat he could raise a billion dollars in a day -- if he wanted to but he doesn't want to.

Nearing the end of a campaign, it's not so much the amount of money rolling in but whether or not the wealth spigots remain in full force. Trump appears to be aware of that slowing to a trickle.

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parts one and two are very encouraging. Thorough and reasonable. Beautifully done. I want to believe that the next 2 weeks will unfold as you've noted they are currently proceeding.

Then, I see a gigantic trump rally and I lose some confidence that we can stop the President or the Pandemic.

Nevertheless, i'm looking forward to further installments of the way you see what's happening.

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NYCVG

@NYCVG Wish I were seeing more Trump fatigue that what the polls are suggesting. Trump out (am under no illusion that that will make him go away) would be good (and I'm not ready to call that), but Biden in puts us back to what resulted in Trump being in. And we have no idea how to correct that.

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@Marie
is the stake in the heart of every working man and woman, of whatever race or orientation. Catfood anyone?

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We are so screwed.

@The Voice In the Wilderness working man and woman began in 1980. Like lambs to the slaughter -- "Reagan was such a nice guy."

There won't be a landslide, at least not as I define landslide.

Yes, Biden could make the lives of working and retired Americans worse, but that's why the working classes can't go to sleep as they did with the election of Obama.

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@Marie
But I'm ROTFLMAO reading about the stocks that will do well under Biden as he rolls out sweeping plans for Green energy, Public option for social security, massive conservation efforts and an end to foreign wars. Well, I suppose that is what Bernie has been touting from a Biden administration. I'm expecting the opposite. I expect total deregulation of banks, possibly with government subsidies, cuts in SS and Medicare, more Mideast wars, and possible war with Russia. Will the nuclear exchange be limited to proxies?
Or maybe not war but a renewed Cold(er) War. After all, Russia is a too useful excuse to curtail civil liberties and blame all failures on. The "Liberal" stuff we might get: a limited "Jubilee" that is just cover for the USG reimbursing banks for loan losses; Green investments in "pay to play" specific companies,; turning Medicare into pure Medicare Part C i.e. privatization of Medicare. Think Clinton/Obama on steroids. Yes, Republicans/Trump want some of these, but we can count on some sort of limited resistance from Congress. But Biden will get no resistance whatsoever. Just squabbling over the bribes.

The enemy of your enemy is NOT your friend. He's just a temporary fellow traveler and most often your next enemy.

BTW, bought some Walmart, they have been growing for years and except for the April fiscal lockup, solved, by FED intervention, have been growing. Weed stocks not doing good. If Illinois is any example, the price of legal weed far exceeds the street price. The public has continued buying street weed and the legal shops are in peril. Oil stocks are in the toilet because of the oil overproduction, coronavirus decline in travel, and belief in green Biden.. Tempted to take a flyer but it is a bit like clearing a toilet clog by hand without rubber gloves.

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We are so screwed.

Cassiodorus's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness which will be scheduled to legalize weed. Arizona will be the big one. Of course the problem is that interstate commerce in weed can't happen unless it's legalized Federally.

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"Every election is fake." -- Janna Ordonia, from "Star vs. the Forces of Evil"

@Marie I don't want either of them to win.

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NYCVG

TheOtherMaven's picture

@NYCVG

Then it goes to the House of Representatives (provided the Supreme Court doesn't butt in again), and they will either 1) vote state-by-state with each state getting one vote, or 2) as they did in 1876, select an "impartial" (yarite, it wasn't in 1876 either) panel to review the situation.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven that 269 to 269 scenario. As it currently stands, Biden would lose, but it will be the 2021 House that would be voting. It could put a huge amount of power in the hands of two or three new House reps.

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WoodsDweller's picture

Absolutely spot on.
Trump is a one-trick pony. If he has any political skill at all (spoiler: he doesn't) it was waiting until an election cycle where the only person who would lose to him was running.
I'm pretty confident at this point that Biden will receive more votes. I'm wish that I were confident that it will matter.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

@WoodsDweller but turning off the 24/7 WH BS will be a small blessing. If people follow that up with shunning all Trump TV appearances and related blather, it will be even better.

Meanwhile -- we need to take a few lessons from the Bolivians and howl about any and all Biden/Obama initiatives transferring more the haves and less to the have nots.

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Fionnsboy's picture

With the environmental stuff (especially the dropping of Endangered Species Act protections, and the hunting of wolf and bear cubs, etc) I am looking forward to the kicking of the orange d.b. out of the Big Chair; but then I think, shit: the Dem Establishment should be burnt to the ground, and maybe, just MAYBE, they will get the message that we do not want their Neoliberal Garbage Candidates.

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Semper ubi sub ubi

@Fionnsboy They really do have to die off -- figuratively or literally.

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only after 1980, but the election of Joe Biden would mean the death of billions - if we're lucky, all of us probably. It is a disgusting dystopian novel that the only slim hope for the human race is the reelection of Donald Trump. It's not just the Americans that are trying desperately to survive Trump's eyes closed stagger to death and the Democrats that are only offering to stagger straighter, it's worldwide. "Liberalism" is a death cult masquerading as an alternative to the other death cult and the Democratic Party is the worldwide vanguard. It must be destroyed and victory, even over Trump, will only strengthen it.

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A PROUD Hillary hater since 1993