US Covid-19 Death Rate Rises Dramatically

Yesterday (July 7), there were 902 recorded deaths from covid-19 in the United States--the first time since June 8 that there were more than 900 deaths in a single day. Source

On July 6, there were only 244 deaths recorded, and for the couple of weeks leading up to that, in general we were looking at 200-400 deaths per day.

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Edit, per request from BoBM:

UScases.jpeg

These are daily totals in the United States, per day. The first column of data is total number of positive diagnosed cases, the second column is deaths due to covid-19.

120,610 deaths as of July 7. 119,708 as of July 6. An increase of 902.

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Yesterday, also, Florida recorded almost 10,000 new covid-19 cases for the first time ever, and California recorded over 9,000 new cases for the first time ever in a single day. Yes, increased testing is undoubtedly a part of that. However, testing has been at very high levels for at least the past couple of weeks, and positive cases have been increasing every single day.

California Cases

Florida Cases (but it's 11 short of 10,000 new cases yesterday)

Hospitals in southern California are now at max capacity for covid-19 cases, and they are now shipping patients up to San Francisco to handle the overflow. Florida hospitals are maxed out. I heard from a friend two days ago that Milwaukee hospitals are now maxed out again, whereas about 2 weeks ago the covid-19 areas were relatively empty.

LA Transferring Patients to SF Bay Area

Stay safe everyone. Protect yourself! This is not yet going away . . .

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Hawkfish's picture

A disturbing article in The Guardian this morning:

Neurologists are on Wednesday publishing details of more than 40 UK Covid-19 patients whose complications ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. In some cases, the neurological problem was the patient’s first and main symptom.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

ovals49's picture

@Hawkfish
From what I have read, these receptors are found in many vital organs, in red blood cells and in the central nervous system. This virus truly a broad spectrum pathogen that, given the opportunity, may disrupt any number of important functions, even if it doesn’t manage to kill you by filling your lungs with fluid.

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“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

Lily O Lady's picture

such as swabs. Labs are also backlogged. So how good can the stats be?

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

@Lily O Lady
I just read that Hawaii had to cut it's daily testing in half because it's main suppler of reagents would no longer ship there. The supplies are needed on the continent.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/07/08/breaking-news/hawaiis-coronavi...

In March I told an ambo tech that we needed to do random stratified sampling of the population to get an accurate picture of the CV distribution in the country. Impossible then; tests were too scarce to squander on research. And it's getting like that again.

Mind boggling. Six months into the pandemic and the US is still acting like an ebay auction. Rationing health care! I dread Fall 2020. How is it even possible that the richest nation in history can't supply critical materiel and PPE in a pandemic? Why can't I go into any Dollar Store or pharmacy and buy KN95 masks?

Hint: Top of the world cases list - US, Brazil, India, Russia. Socialist countries are way, way down the list. Vietnam claims to have had ZERO fatalities.

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If I'm wrong, it's the first time I'm happy to be confused. -Don Van Vliet

snoopydawg's picture

@pindar's revenge

As you said 6 months into this epidemic we still can’t get the supplies we need? About 2 months ago we learned that farmers were dumping vegetables, fruits and milk and eggs. Trump said that he’d put the national guard on it to help transport them to were they needed to go. Yesterday I read that they are still having the same problems. This seems deliberate to me because I cannot believe that there weren’t plans in place just for this issue. I’d love to know what their goals are with this.

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

@snoopydawg

is a compliant population (til the tumbrels). Though I doubt if they're even that organized about it, just a reflex to keep the peons down.
I saw a comment somewhere, not here, that theorized that Rump is doing a Götterdämmerung, bringing the country down because we don't love him enough, similar to Hitler's scorched-earth plan when the West and the Sovs were entering Germany. When Speer complained of the cruelty to the German people, H said the German people didn't deserve mercy because they weren't devoted enough.
Crowding his own sycophants elbow-to-elbow for a final rage-fest... Unmasked choirs in a crowded churchy venue... Trying to force schools to open...

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If I'm wrong, it's the first time I'm happy to be confused. -Don Van Vliet

snoopydawg's picture

@pindar's revenge

A desperate population. Same with how employers are going to be able to make people accept whatnot salary and benefits they want. Do better like what you’re offered? C'ya then because there are millions more just waiting for a chance to make some money.

One thing that I’m wondering if the people who still think that this is a hoax understand that if hospitals get overwhelmed that there won’t be staff or beds for people who have other life threatening issues. We have already seen deaths from treatable illnesses going up because of the lockdown. Plus suicides, domestic violence deaths and others are rising. This could have been avoided like other countries have done, but congress is more interested in letting their donors asset strip the country. Remember that Trump shipped masks and other items out of the country just as they were needed here.

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

@snoopydawg

A glaring feature of the "reopening" (xrist, makes me think of "reconquista"): workers are told to go back to work or lose their means of support (unemployment, wages) and their HEALTH CARE (!). So people have to choose between risking their lives and the lives of their close ones - or starve and maybe die of some other disease like heart problems (or that boring old virus). Gotta keep the cheezburgers rolling. Yep, the cruelty is the point.

It still boggles me that the US ties health care to employment status.

Imagine a relatively sane country which gives the citizens, not the corporations, $2000/mo for 4 months to get them through the night. And has national health care. Oh wait, that was Canada.

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If I'm wrong, it's the first time I'm happy to be confused. -Don Van Vliet

Lookout's picture

@snoopydawg

Profit...
... for big pharma as evidenced by developing a US test rather than using an existing one (with a two month delay in rolling out testing in the US). Another example is pushing Remdesivir @ $3000+/5 day treatment with poor results, rather than more effective treatments like the MATH+ protocol. And a 3rd example is denying the effectiveness of inexpensive HCQ administered with Zn early (immediately) after symptoms.

And perhaps more damning... the massive transfer of wealth with the CARES act.

Now the question is was this virus engineered and then released on purpose or by accident? It is a distinct possibility.

Take care and be well.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

ovals49's picture

@Lookout
the people, an intentional engineered pathogen causing a pandemic is absolutely unthinkable.

For those who have reluctantly come to the conclusion that our government serves wealth, not the general population, the possibility can not be ruled out.

For those who believe that the Nazis rescued by America in Operation Paperclip now run the place, an engineered virus depopulating the planet of “excess population” is a brilliant solution.

In any event, the proof needed to answer that question will likely never be revealed. I highly doubt that any mainstream exploration of the question will even be tolerated....unless it’s China being accused of the dastardly deed.

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6 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

To have any claim of 902 deaths yesterday. Granted, it's possibly buried in there amongst all the cdc data they are using.

Please quote the section where you found that data.

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@Battle of Blair Mountain @Battle of Blair Mountain

And, they are not using CDC data. They are using state health department data. Much more timely and accurate. The CDC data usually catches up after 1 to 1.5 months.

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@apenultimate @apenultimate So, from that graphic we can draw a couple of conclusions. Here's the daily totals it gives:

June 24: 688 deaths
25: 644
26: 599
27: 506
28: 250
29: 328
30: 613
July 1: 670
2: 671
3: 610
4: 273
5: 212
6: 244
7: 902

What we see are steady numbers in the 600's, with sudden dips in the 200's, followed by a return to steady numbers in the 600's. Then a sudden long dip into the 200's followed by an uncharacteristic outlier on the 7th.

We will need to see the next few days to discern if the sudden spike is a new upward trend or if it is just a clerical artifact because of late reporting due to the 4th of July weekend, which is probably the case. If one averages the past four days, one finds it comes to 407.75.

I expect tomorrow to probably be also slightly elevated as the weekend numbers catch up. If it stays at or above 900 for the next few days, we will have an upward trend.

But for one day? Following a holiday? You're just pouncing on an excuse to attack my previous article.

We will have to wait and see as more data comes in.

EDIT: Looking again at those numbers, it seems the numbers dipped on Mondays and Tuesdays. This is probably a clerical artifact and one I would be interested in seeing if it continues.

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@Battle of Blair Mountain

I realize it's a one-day uptick, but it's pretty large. Just looking at the rising number of cases and hospitalizations overall, though, I think we're in for a somewhat sustained surge, unfortunately.

Yes, but as to the numbers, I really do feel these wikipedia numbers are much more timely and on-point that the CDC numbers you've been using. At least historically, they seem to be. It takes the CDC a really long time to catch up, whereas these numbers are directly from state health authorities daily. The reason I cite this is because if we see a spike over the next few days, you might not actually see that in the CDC numbers for a few weeks or more.

In the previous thread we were discussing on, I was highlighting the 3,425 deaths for the week leading up to July 4 (based on the chart you highlighted here). That was above the number of deaths in mid-June reported by the CDC, and I estimated that the CDC mid-June numbers would never catch up to those July 4 numbers (even given a few more weeks of the CDC modifying their data). At best, the death rate is maybe leveling off in the past few weeks, but I don't see it decreasing anymore using the state health authority data. In fact, with this 902 day yesterday, I'd say even if we see a moderate drop in future days, that's gonna lead to a jump just itself alone.

I just don't think waiting that long for data is a good premise to base conclusions on, so maybe you should change your data sourcing. (It's up to you, of course!)

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@apenultimate @apenultimate long term trends quite easily. I don't make a career - nor would a career analyst find it necessary - out of taking daily numbers to find overall trends. The trends are clear from the slower, long term numbers coming out of cdc.

Also, this one day 'uptick' as you call it, is a prime example of why you don't use daily numbers to detect long term trends. It's called noise. Yesterday was an outlier. Looked at over a four day period, as I pointed out, you have an actual 'downtick'. But then again, for the same reasons I don't use daily numbers, I won't use those four days, because they fell on the 4th of july weekend so there will be a clerical artifact.

Below is a post by Ranting Rooster showing Texas. Every seventh day like clockwork, you can see the death total takes a steep dive.

It's someone's day off at the reporting office.

Clerical artifact.

Cdc's long term numbers can be used to discern long term trends. Daily numbers from health departments cannot. Well, they can, if you want to collate all that data and take days of work hours to do it. Why, when you can use already collated data with enough data points to say you don't have sample size errors at the cdc?

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@apenultimate

covid.png

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

The jump is on 7/7.

And note, the low point for deaths is on 6/22. It has been trending upwards since then. Plot the 7/7 number, and it just gets higher . . .

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@apenultimate @apenultimate @apenultimate

how that's gonna change the graph much, given that the line is a ten day moving average which also takes into account the much lower numbers of previous days.

So even with your one-day spike, the overall trend still looks flat at best.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

Because of that, the fact that the red death rate line is still trending upwards at all is pretty scary, actually (same with the number of cases, the blue line, which actually seems to show a marked bend upwards).

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

You're just pouncing on an excuse to attack my previous article.

If you mean publishing information for readers here as a counter the erroneous interpretation you so dogmatically persisted in yesterday, then yes, I suppose one could interpret this essay as doing that. But like you said to me just last night, don’t shoot the messenger. And yet, here you are unashamedly wagging your finger at us again.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz are the one's who persist in saying I'm in error. Even Fauci admits I'm correct:

The death rate is lower, I admit that.

Now, if you want to argue Fauci's point or your own points about whether or not we should relax our guard against this virus because the death rate is going down is one thing.

Denying a fact is quite another.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

That fit your view and drawing larger conclusions from it. That‘s not what scientists do when analyzing data. Add to that formula your gigantic ego, your unqualified expertise, and what we have is a cauldron of hubris and obstinance.

But please, carry on.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

CS in AZ's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

Excellent example of cherry picking! But also a good link. Let’s take a look at what Dr. Fauci said, starting with the article title, which you conveniently didn’t put into your link:

Fauci: “It’s A False Narrative To Take Comfort In A Lower Rate Of Death”

OK, we are off to a good start. Without quoting the entire article, let’s just look at few key points from it.

It’s not that the declining death toll isn’t real and encouraging, it’s that focusing people’s attention on it will lead them to take fewer precautions in the belief that the disease is no longer as much of a mortal threat. Even if that’s true (and whether it’s true is the big mystery in America’s epidemic at the moment), it’s debilitating short-term for some, debilitating long-term for others, and fatal in several hundred cases every day. “Don’t worry, you won’t die” isn’t the message to be pitching at a moment when Texas, Arizona, and Florida are struggling to come up with ways to get people to reduce their exposure.

Well, yes, but this involves thinking about things in a comprehensive manner and recognizing the lack of certainty about the future, or thinking about anything really, other than promoting Trump talking points about how it’s magically going away, everything is groovy, tra la la!

Like Fauci said, it’s a false narrative.

We’re only a week or two away from solving our national mystery about whether an uptick in deaths is merely “lagging” the rise in cases nationally or if something fundamental has changed about the epidemic to make COVID-19 durably less deadly. According to Worldometer, cases in the U.S. began climbing steadily around June 17. That’s three weeks ago. Three weeks is around the time you’d expect for an infection to turn symptomatic, then serious, then serious enough to require intensive care. If deaths are going to follow the pattern we saw in New York, we should see movement over the next week. And maybe we will: The trend in deaths may be down down but the trend in hospitalizations…

Yes, exactly right. There will be enough information soon enough to get a much better idea of what is going on. Right now, NO ONE KNOWS. One wonders at the bizarre need to shove a specific narrative down our throats now, instead of just waiting to see and dealing with the actual facts when they become available.

If we don’t see the death toll rise, we’re going to spend the second half of this month watching a fascinating debate play out among doctors and scientists about why COVID has suddenly become less lethal. Did the virus mutate? Have hospitals simply cracked the code on how to keep people alive? Are remdesivir and dexamethasone really game-changers to the point of reducing daily deaths in the U.S. by 90 percent from their peak in the span of a few months?

Again, right. Lots of questions but no answers. Even if the death toll is going down for real, that does not lead to a conclusion that “the virus is going away” (which it clearly is not since the case load continues to increase), but it does mean something has changed, and there will be a need to understand why.

I’m not a big fan of Dr. Fauci, but I do respect that he has managed to keep his job while simultaneously answering to Hair Trump and still trying to speak some truths. Good for him. He makes a lot of good points in this interview. You should listen to him.

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@CS in AZ Thanks.

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snoopydawg's picture

@CS in AZ

This...

it’s debilitating short-term for some, debilitating long-term for others, and fatal in several hundred cases every day.

I have been reading about what people are left with after surviving COVID. Many are still left without their smelling and taste buds. They say that it makes eating a chore which I can talk about. I had my jaw wired for 2 months twice so I feel I can relate to this. My dad would cook marvelous meals in the crockpot. Steak or chicken and then we’d blend it. Tasted just like a cooked one would. But I didn’t enjoy it because I couldn’t chew it. Chewing is at least half of what makes eating enjoyable. I could tongue it to death, but still it was left wanting. I would go to dinner with my friends who enjoyed eating chips and Doritos. Talk about chew envy. Will those people get their taste and smell back? The jury is still out.

But what is even worse is how many people are left with debilitating health issues. Lungs. Brain issues from strokes or other problems. And many other organ problems. Maybe the lucky ones are the ones who died and are no longer suffering? How many years will people have to fight to get on disability? Or won’t be able to return to their jobs and have to find something that doesn’t pay as well?

And after all this time Utah’s governor is still debating whether to make mask wearing mandatory. I went to the store yesterday and more people were not wearing them then were. Even though our numbers are rising again. Now people are insisting that schools open again because their kids aren’t learning. Okay. The fault of the curriculum or the parents?

8048D935-5548-4E34-9E0A-563F40A0E213.jpeg
DD818833-DD11-447F-B276-DB1614ABC00C.jpeg
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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

@Battle of Blair Mountain
tend to happen on a weekly period, with low numbers on Sundays and holidays. I guess places are closed. That stretch of numbers in the 200s was on the July 4th weekend. Often there's a bump in cases reported afterwards. This cycle is especially evident on the WaPo CV cases chart for All US at
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cas...
WaPo started adding a moving 7-day average that compensates for this reporting artifact.

WaPo seems to be underreporting stats; the Hopkins page tends to have larger numbers, but it doesn't have the fancy graphics.

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If I'm wrong, it's the first time I'm happy to be confused. -Don Van Vliet

Cassiodorus's picture

-- I don't remember when or where -- there was speculation that the virus had mutated into a form which was less fatal, although the symptoms seem to be getting more dramatic given the increase in hospitalizations. What do you know?

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"Scab of a nation, driven insane" -- Frank Zappa

@Cassiodorus

I heard about a week ago that for the past few months it was a more readily transmissible mutation of covid-19 that was going around in the United States. But, I haven't heard anything regarding mortality potential.

There was a report out 3 or 4 days ago regarding a study in Spain that showed that country only had 5% of people with antibodies to covid-19. The study claimed it proved that people didn't hold on to their immunity from it, and therefore vaccinations would never work. However, there were only ~250,000 positive recorded cases in Spain overall, in a country of 47 million. That's 0.5%. If you assume that the actual number of cases in Spain was 10 times the amount of positively recorded cases (e.g., asymptomatic cases, etc.), which is what some studies in other areas have suggested, you end up with . . . 5% of people in Spain probably actually had it.

Which means just maybe people who have had covid-19 actually retain their immunity and antibodies!

Seriously, more critical thought needs to be put into these studies it seems . . .

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@Cassiodorus I think it was in response to the number of new cases increasing so dramatically while the death rate did not match it, prompting the speculation that the virus had mutated and was less deadly now.

What is actually happening is we're finally seeing just how incredibly contagious this virus was. Early on I was pointing out that pregnant women coming into the hospitals were testing positive for cv at a much higher rate than was currently being reported, suggesting that the virus had spread to a much higher proportion of the population.

A LOT of people had it, no one was testing them. As testing becomes more widespread, the number of positive cases are going to continue to climb, sparking fear in the populace. However, the death rate has not climbed alongside it and that is probably because the worst of it is already over.

Only time will tell and like any virus, it will come back and death tolls will come back with it.

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@Battle of Blair Mountain between the increasing number of cases and increasing deaths? They do not move in lockstep. Several people have tried to explain that to you but you continue to act like you haven't a clue.

One more time for complete clarity. The incubation period is 4-14 days approximately. Early in the time from infection the person is infectious to others. Deaths average about another two weeks after symptoms present. Roughly a month from infection to death is a reasonable rule of thumb. Individual cases can vary significantly. I seem to recall some people hanging on for nearly three months.

Death is a trailing indicator. Don't worry. You'll see the rise in deaths in a few weeks.

The only tool we have at this moment to fight Covid is prevention. The equation is butt ugly simple: don't get infected with this virus = don't die from this virus As an added benefit we don't infect other people if we don't get infected.

Let's go for bonus points, OK? How do we tell when we're doing a shit job in the US at preventing people from dying of Covid? a.) 3,000,000 "confirmed" infected with Covid in the US and increasing rapidly or b.) 130,000+ "confirmed" dead from Covid in the US and increasing slowly? c.) All of the above d.) I haven't a clue

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@vtcc73 That person is deliberately "stirring the pot" with fabrications. I really think the best thing you can do is ignore those posts / comments. FYI

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@jbob @jbob or whatever reason BoBM stubbornly repeats his message doesn't really matter. Notice that most of the discussion on this essay hasn't really involved BoBM. My writing is not for him/her. Everybody who has joined in has had a good exchange of information and ideas with only his occasional attempt to be right. I think he's convinced himself. That's OK.

This particular post was designed to see whether his essays and comments have been pot stirring or just someone who can/won't give up on an idea that won't fly or something else. I still don't know because he didn't reply. Having engaged in other comments I made where he could repeat what he'd already said, but refusing to accept a direct challenge, tells me everything I wanted to know. I'll proceed accordingly. It's all good.

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Anja Geitz's picture

after yesterday’s voyage of ego careened into our collective disbelief. As I mentioned yesterday to the OP of the rancorous Covid essay after he insisted he would continue publishing his Covid essays, I sent his “findings” to a family friend who analyzes this kind of data for a living and he did not concur with the unqualified opinion of said OP. Shocking, eh? Therefore, I let the OP know that while he was free to publish what he will, so was I. So, when he puts up another essay with data that does not conclude with his dogmatic assertions, I will put up a competing essay saying essentially what I’ve just said here.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

GreatLakeSailor's picture

...because I live in the area and that was news to me. I am unable to confirm the accuracy of that claim. Here is a data point from yesterday:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/health-care/2020/07/07/fie...

Field hospital in West Allis, costing more than $15 million, unneeded so far but still seen as a wise precaution

...John Raymond Sr., a physician and president and CEO of the Medical College of Wisconsin, said in an email.

He does not expect the field hospital to be needed in July or August.

follow link for full details

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Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor & Big Peace.

@GreatLakeSailor

Just repeating what I was told. I'm nowhere near there, so I haven't a clue.

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GreatLakeSailor's picture

@apenultimate

In this "great debate" about covid that is going back and forth here on c99p I tend away from the it'll-die-out-on-its-own position of some. It's here, it's real, it's deadly.

Accuracy counts so I'll pick the nit:

...Milwaukee hospitals are now maxed out again.

Again? Can you ask your source when the other time(s) southeast Wisconsin hospitals were covid maxed? Because as a resident of the area I am not aware of that happening. Ever. It could very well happen sometime this fall, but as yet, again - that I am aware - has not happened. Is not happening.

In the interest of accuracy, might you consider an author's note that the Milwaukee claim is...not confirmed?

https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/COVID-19
MilwaukeeCovidHospCap.jpg

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Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor & Big Peace.

Granma's picture

131,594. That is from today's Guardian. They got the number from John Hopkins site.

edit to correct number and state source

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the deaths in my county were at 4 and had been at 4 since at least 27 May. Ten additional deaths have been recorded in less than two weeks. Cases as of 1 June were 564 and now are 1,487.

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RantingRooster's picture

61 deaths reported yesterday.

From Texas DHHS

Texas_7-7-20.png

Drinks

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"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Anja Geitz's picture

@RantingRooster

You’ll see it’s trending downwards. Thought you should know that.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

RantingRooster's picture

@Anja Geitz ROFLAMO! Crazy

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"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

@RantingRooster @RantingRooster So even as you all seem to have a vested emotional interest in denying that the death rate is going down nationwide, I don't share your emotional investment. Neither does Fauci:

“The death rate is lower, I admit that.

So I can ask the question: Why, as the nation sees the death rate declining (even using penultimate's graphic we can see it is at best leveling off), is it going up in Texas? Texas is not alone in reopening.

Well, the thing is, it's barely trending up. And again, we see the same clerical artifact I mentioned in my reply above to penultimate. Note how on every 7th day the death rate dips dramatically? May 25th, 8. June 1st 6. June 8th, 6. You can literally track it with your eyes. That's what's called a clerical artifact. It's someone's day off who does the reporting.

Yes, it's going up. But let's put it into context: In Texas, the death rate is 91 per million. Compared to NY which reached 1656 deaths per million.

So yes, it's crawling upward to the 40's and 50's per day now, from the 20's and 30's it was before all the testing got underway. What has happened with testing? Well, you guys love John Hopkins so much, let's look at their data: Testing went from 300k in to 700k in July.

One would expect more deaths being assigned to Covid as more people are diagnosed with it, but no, the death rate continues to go down even as the number of cases are now finally just starting to be counted.

And in Texas? Per John Hopkins testing really skyrocketed in the past three weeks.

Graphs can carry a lot of emotional impact when they are used to hyper inflate the scale of the data, but when you look at the actual numbers and take into account the increased testing, then you realize there's nothing to panic about happening in Texas right now.

And even if there were a reason to panic, panic never helped any situation. Only calm thinking.

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RantingRooster's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain Dude, or Dudette, I can't help it if the Texas DHHS publishes data that doesn't support you argument, "this virus is going away". That's not "emotional investment", it's simply what the Texas DHHS published, and I posted it to this essay. Right? Pretty darn simple.

Crazy

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8 users have voted.

"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

or cases. The expected trajectory of this virus is roughly following other epidemics and pandemics. There is zero expectation of it being different other than some specifics related to the characteristics of this virus, it is novel after all, that are slowly being discovered. This thing is going to be with us for some time. We need to get used to that reality.

This is slightly off topic but speaks to BoBM's assertions. I came across a post from a Swedish researcher who is peripherally involved with virology. He is well experienced with testing, statistical analysis, and scientific methodology. He has been reliable and accurate so far on the few occasions he's written about the pandemic and the virus. His post was an opinion of the work of a respected European doctor who thinks, like BoBM, that the virus may indeed be beginning to decline. (No, the doctor's position has nothing to do with a supposed decline in deaths or death rate. Instead it has everything to do with infection rates.) The doctor cites the incredible unreliability and lack of useful sampling methodologies in testing. He also states that the still unsolved issue of immunity is a source of many big ifs. The doctor's position is that there is a much higher percentage of the population infected, at least in parts of Europe, than is suggested by testing and that the virus may burn through the population sooner than later. The Swede offered that until anything definitive is learned about immunity there is no possible way to know if this is happening. The best he offered was that it is a remote possibility in his mind.

Take it for what it is. I don't know is about the best answer although I'd go with the Swede. The smart money will continue to follow the suggested precautions. Getting this thing later rather than sooner, if we have a choice, is almost certainly less risky.

Something shocked me yesterday in the BoBM kerfuffle. How did BoBM and others not seem to be aware much less understand that there have been relapse and serious long term effects on those recovering from an infection reported and studied since the beginning of the year?

My first hint was a documentary I saw in late March about a leading ID in India. One of the featured patients was an elderly Sikh gentleman with 30% oxygen saturation levels. He was more or less alert, desperately ill and near death, but did survive a lengthy intubation and coma. The doctor couldn't understand how this was possible. Sats below 90% are a cause for concern but the patient should have been in a coma or, likely, dead at 30%. That and reports from critical care docs in the US of similar experiences were the first hints that this thing wasn't a respiratory disease after all.

The current consensus is that it is a blood disease. The extreme respiratory distress is a symptom not a primary cause of death. The likely culprit is a hyperactive immune system causing clotting in the blood. Organ failure from lotting and fluid in the lungs, pneumonia, are the causes of death. The first MSM article on the subject was from the Washington Post on April 22. The information was several weeks old at that point. I'd seen and had sent to me by a friend indications of these concerns in late March, early April. Doctors in Seattle, Boston, and other cities were seeing the sats phenomenon and had autopsy reports of extensive micro clotting in the major organs: heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, brain. All were seeing significant organ damage and probable long term health consequences for those who were recovering even if they hadn't been intubated.

It doesn't take a doctor to understand the potential long term effects from damage to any or several of these organs. The number of those who recover from a serious infection are many times the death rate. Which do you expect to be the larger long term life issue - death or chronic organ damage?

I've seen dozens of similar stories (including one from a couple I know here who had minor cases of Covid) like this one that showed up this morning in CHL (primary source CNN): The 'long tail' of Covid-19 This is one possible explanation of the reports of relapses in supposed recovered patients. It may be short term or not. Now please explain to me again why death rate is so freakin' important?

Sorting through sources of reliable information is incredibly difficult these days. But how do people not catch on to this stuff? That one April 22 article was a big find. What minimal knowledge I have of medicine, pandemics, and the like was still sufficient for me to know this made more sense than anything I'd seen from several primary sources or the idiot media. Maybe reading about the Spanish Flu pandemic a hundred years ago and having an ID to answer my silly questions and a wife and friend who love this stuff provided me with enough clues to put together a possible explanation. I don't know but this MSM article kicked off my search for understanding. That's exactly what we need to do when we read or hear anything. Bitching about the media, predatory capitalism, and the ignorance isn't enough. We have to look for our own answers and not just scream "Fake news!" That BS makes each of us no less ignorant than the typical Trumpista.

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10 users have voted.

@vtcc73 It wasn't pertinent to the study of whether the virus is going away or not.

And don't misunderstand me, I don't believe this virus will ever permanently go away. I don't think there is any immunity. It's a coronavirus. Like the common cold. There's not going to be a cure IMO. It will be back.

I'm only saying it's going away RIGHT NOW so take a sigh of relief. The first wave is over. How bad subsequent waves may be we are yet to see.

But we're going to have to live with this forever.

Forever.

And we can't stay in quarantine that long can we? So we're just going to have to live - and die - with it.

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2 users have voted.

@Battle of Blair Mountain @Battle of Blair Mountain There are some indications that the first wave ended here in Ecuador but it is unclear on a national level. Locally in places where it was so bad, Guayaquil, it is clearly ended. The likely percentage of infected people in the hardest hit areas, poor and crowded in primitive living conditions, may be high enough to minimize a second wave. It's unclear due to no definitive answer on immunity and a near total lack of accurate testing targeted to discover how many were infected in those areas. The serious deficiencies of testing accuracy further cast doubt on all of the data. It's all a guess here and not really much better in the US. Testing at this point is more or less useless for making informed decisions.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

I'm only saying it's going away RIGHT NOW so take a sigh of relief. The first wave is over.

When the numbers are going up? If it was going away wouldn’t you think that they would be going down? And since many states opened up even before they met the qualifications to do it then how can the 1st wave have ended?

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10 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@vtcc73 @vtcc73

How did BoBM and others not seem to be aware much less understand that there have been relapse and serious long term effects on those recovering from an infection reported and studied since the beginning of the year?

The relapse is part of the initial disease. I'll use my own case as an example.

I got the bad stuff first (headache, fever, cough, etc.) for about two weeks. That receded and then the 'malaise' (fatigue, disorientation, etc.) kicked in which lasted another month or so. I was relatively OK for about another month and then symptoms came back, although as not as strong or for as long as the first bout. All told 4+ months. Been fine ever since.

That's what they SHOULD mean by relapse: your system doesn't always kick the bug the first time and it may take battling further symptoms to develop effective immunity.

The point being is that relapse is part of the normal course of the disease that lasts a fairly long time if you get it bad enough, but that should not be misinterpreted to suggest that just because people may suffer a relapse the thing never goes away.

As far as long term effects go, nobody is able to determine what those are because we are still in the short term, as nearly all the articles discussing that topic are quick to qualify. What people are actually doing is conflating the short term effects of a long lasting disease with the long term effects of what they are told is a shorter lasting disease.

Of course, if you really get it bad and are admitted to ICU, then there may be other longer term problems - many related to comorbidity issues or even the treatment itself (like the use of ventilators), but any definitive claim about specific long term effects without those factors is simply illogical on its face since nobody has had this thing long enough to really know.

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6 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger I hope it is at least. I've yet to see enough data to make a definitive statement. What's more telling is I've yet to see any major player in the world step up with an answer. My sense is that you are spot on that what you experienced is normal for the virus and not an indication that there will be no medium to long term immunity from being infected. A two to three year immunity would be far from ideal but there are plenty of the experts who fear that may be the best we can hope for.

As far as long term effects go I agree that it is too early to know what, if any, long term effects may occur. Again, my feeling is that it depends on how much damage was done and the individual's overall health prior to infection. I hope there are minimal long term effects. But we just don't know. The potential is plenty enough reason to avoid catching the damn thing though.

From my personal viewpoint something is going to kill me. I'm in good health with no known risk factors except age. Life is really good, great actually, and a chronic organic health issue would really suck. I could drop dead before I finish this post and have no reason to complain. What I'd prefer to avoid is being a burden to my family, declining health, and a lingering end.

Two stories:
Not Covid but a nightmare.
Acquaintances' Covid saga.

Thanks for the personal story and take care mate.

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9 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@vtcc73

Again, my feeling is that it depends on how much damage was done and the individual's overall health prior to infection. I hope there are minimal long term effects. But we just don't know. The potential is plenty enough reason to avoid catching the damn thing though.

You don't want to get this thing. It's really no fun.

But as bad as it is, people are still being fed a lot of distorting propaganda that makes it seem much worse.

I find a lot the messaging on COVID eerily reminiscent of the yellowcake scaremongering leading up Iraq. Lots of vague 'may be linked to' connections - all with journalistically necessary disclaimers buried six graphs in.

Which is why we all really need to be much more discriminating in our sourcing and methods before making definitive claims about COVID. Otherwise all we may be doing is needlessly scaring people as well as catapulting the corporate disinformation agenda.

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4 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger in the media lately except the "nothing to see here" type from the usual suspects. I do see sensationalism, terrible oversimplifications and overstatements, and plenty of schmucks looking for fame and grifting some bucks. Then, I avoid the US media like the plague. I've seen enough lies and bullshit from the media my whole life that I'm mostly immune to sensational and know how to look into a topic through other sources. It didn't take too many times seeing a story that was completely wrong on subjects I knew well to start to wonder what crap was I buying on what I didn't understand. I get caught on occasion but not often anymore. The key for me is to question everything, especially if I agree, and to recognize and be very, very careful when the appeal is emotional. I've said it here many times, Charles Pierce's Three Great Premises are a great lense through which to view almost any subject in modern life in the US.

I see more danger in dismissing everything that I don't already believe to be true and seeing malice behind every blade of grass. People don't know what to think or how to resolve discrepancies and contradictions. I'm very disheartened by so many who demand certainty and answers to every question. Life isn't right/wrong or black/white and seldom has just one answer yet so many are severely discomfited by not knowing. That's one reason this Covid pandemic in general and this series of essays by BoBM has been maddening. I don't blame or have hard feelings for the person.

One set of fatally flawed data on one questionable metric to make a broad statement that goes against everything else we see is a result of demanding certainty and surrendering to our own beliefs and biases. "I don't know" and being OK with that state of affairs isn't even an option although for most of life's questions that is the only answer. I really couldn't care less about the topic du jour. It's trivial (on the level of trying to separate fly shit from pepper) although how we approach the question is not. I do care about process and how we learn to think and understand the world. The more I see the more concerned I am of the effect on most people. The state of America is not an encouraging sign.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@vtcc73

Plenty of overconfident, misinformed people on both sides of the debate - many with agendas that have little to do with the actual disease.

And all while we're in the middle of an even crazier silly season than the last one. UGH.

Finding any truth at all about COVID in this environment is a constant exercise in picking peanuts out of poop.

And I don't like to eat poop.

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4 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger looking for truth in chaotic situations is masterbation without the fun part. My focus is what can I do to help bring those I care about and myself to the other side safely. With Covid I have a plan that I will adapt as I get new data. The silly season plan is to be grateful my wife wanted to live in this paradise in another hemisphere ~2000 NM away from the poo flinging monkey house. I can choose what to look at, when. When I do look it's usually out of morbid curiosity.

The key is that all I can hope to control is myself and my actions. Everybody and everything else is beyond my control. The results will be what they will be.

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k9disc's picture

reportage.

The papers that are reported on in the media are milquetoast propaganda - hcq not working, press releases for big pharma, "new" vectors of transmission that were known about in Jan, mask stuff, is it aerosolized (known in Jan)... It's almost as if they are trying to confuse us and stir the pot for a lack of sensemaking.

The real disturbing stuff that should concern us all is not broadcast on the media and has had the well poisoned by the Mikowitz', Buttars, and Andrew Kaufmanns.

It is not known if it ever goes away. It is not known how long it can hang out in the brain. It is not known what the neurological effects are and whether they are persistent, recurrent, or permanent.

The media is shit and much of the science is skewed, but if you read a lot of white papers, there is much to be concerned about. The brain stuff starting to come out, which has been public for months and is ramping up in seriousness over the last month, is highly disturbing.

It is known that it passes the blood brain barrier, rather easily most likely via the olfactory bulb and moves throughout the brain efficiently - neuron to neuron. It is infecting the nucleus accumbens, the medulla, and the basal ganglia - deep areas of the brain and limbic system that are responsible for autonomic and base level executive function. It is known to move up the spinal column. It is known that it has a novel method of filopodial transfection where it grows tentacles from cell to cell - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.10.144642v1.full (go for the pics). It is known that it has great homology with rabies, cobra toxin, and HIV.

The transfection area within the brain and the transfection path does not look good for long term, healthy brain and autonomic function of those who have been infected.

Much of this has been known for months, via peer reviewed literature. And all we've been hearing about in the media are masks, respiratory ailments, droplet and fomite transmission, and that HCQ doesn't work (although the papers with actual science in them say that it does - quite well).

I'm on the lookout for disinhibition and dysexecutive syndrome. I think it's running rampant, driving much of our anti-social and political interactions and is the symptom of the asymptomatic. I'm also thinking of trying to reassemble and breadcrumb my science paper dives. It's a lot of work and organization, and the papers themselves are rather exhausting to comb through as a laymen with college science background.

I hope you stay healthy,
@Not Henry Kissinger

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@k9disc @k9disc

It is not known if it ever goes away. It is not known how long it can hang out in the brain. It is not known what the neurological effects are and whether they are persistent, recurrent, or permanent.

This is what I'm talking about when I say this sounds like Iraq War redux.

No, we don't know if any of those things happen, just like we didn't know if Saddam really had WMD, until we invaded and realized that all the overblown reports with the scary headlines we were fed were simply disinformation designed by people with a financial interest in frightening the bejeezus out of all of us.

IMO, calls for draconian 'action' based on nothing more than speculation about what MIGHT, MAY, COULD happen in the future leads us down an even more dangerous path where long term societal damage from 'the cure' is likely to be far worse than the disease.

We need to stop reading from the neocon playbook that says major policy decisions should be based on unsubstantiated conjecture. If there was indeed peer reviewed evidence (based on something more than simply anecdotal reports) about the prevalence of long term damage in a statistically significant cohort, I would be more supportive of the current policies.

But from where I sit, the people in charge appear to know no more than the rest of us (less really) and are making up a lot of grim, murky fairy tales to try to keep us scared and pliable as they pass edict after edict to enrich themselves.

That's not to say there isn't a danger, but IMO Rahm Emmanuel's advice to never let a crisis go to waste seems guiding the process here far more than concern over the true impact of the disease itself.

[FYI: I also appreciate your cite to primary literature. Not sure that you can reach any conclusion about long term impacts from those findings, but I'd be interested in hearing more. I'd also point out, however, that even allegedly peer reviewed papers from top publications have suffered from the COVIDganda syndrome.]

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@vtcc73

The doctor's position is that there is a much higher percentage of the population infected, at least in parts of Europe, than is suggested by testing and that the virus may burn through the population sooner than later.

It seems to go along with the speculation that this multiple of confirmed cases are/were asymptomatic and are/were infectious. (The dodge used by public health officials when they can't identify the index case for clusters.) It's also being used by those arguing that 'herd immunity' will be achieved swiftly and relatively painlessly. Yet, if this were true, why are the negative test results 90+% of all tests? Granted there's not been transparency as to who is being tested. It's possible that the people tested is a fraction of the total tests -- that there a lots and lots of VIPs like Trump who are tested daily. And far too many tests are being administered before the incubation period and after the virus has been cleared.

It's interesting that S. Korea (that has been more transparent and timely in its reporting than most countries) had yet to report any long-tailed illness among its recovered cases. They did report on a few hundred cases that re-tested positive after being cleared by two negative tests. Further investigations of these cases revealed that they were still shedding dead viruses. Possible that S. Korea isn't disclosing further health condesequences for those considered recovered. Also possible that the treatment protocol in S. Korea prevented such consequences. For now it's another unknown.

The answer to the question as to whether it's a respiratory or circulatory virus may be that it can be either. Could depend on how quickly the person clears the virus in the lungs and the longer that takes or the weaker the lungs are to begin with, the easier it is for the virus to migrate. Exercise may be dangerous to those exposed to this virus.

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6 users have voted.

@Marie @Marie are extensive. There is still not a sufficiently reliable accurate test for anything. A lot of the data comes from a time when the tests were far less accurate. Not enough people are being tested. Those tested tend to be given in a clinical setting to confirm a diagnosis and given to only to people who can afford the test. The worst hotspots are in very poor communities. These people are seldom tested. Healthy people are only now beginning to be tested without suspicion and those usually are not people who are the most vulnerable. There is not enough data to make more than a semi-educated guess what the percentage of the population has been infected. I've seen what should be reliable sources say that actual infections are from 2 to more then 20 times what has been confirmed. Confirmed by wildly unreliable testing used in ways that can't supply the best data. Add in the unresolved question of immunity and it's all a guess. I do think the experts can make good enough guesses to guide policy makers and frontline medical personnel towards practices most likely to be effective but they can't make them take the advice. Everything comes down to a probability.

All of that means we're still in a reactive posture grasping for more knowledge, effective prevention and treatment, and a vaccine/cure. Those are only going to be solved in time.

Looking to South Korea and applying their methods would be ideal but we all know that's never going to happen. That leaves us with taking the best preventive measures each of us is able to do.

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4 users have voted.

@vtcc73 The lab test for COVID-19 is good enough (low false pos/neg) for its intended purpose, confirmation of active COVID-19. Clinically that could be enormously helpful in managing the care of a patient and putting the known contacts of that patient on notice that they may have been exposed to the virus. However, the test is worthless for those contacts if they have yet to develop COVID-19 and the time period from infection to active COVID-19 is some variable number of days. That lag time period appears to be as short as two days and as long as twenty-one days. The average appears to be two to seven days. That makes it challenging.

If there were an adequate resource of competent doctors and nurses and contact registry, the virus in a population could be extinguished within a manageable period of weeks. The test is a poor substitute for those resources. Possibly a dangerous substitute in test happy populations for a couple of reasons. First, widespread, unmanaged testing among those that haven't been infected consumes test resources and healthcare dollars. Second, it's human nature for asymptomatic people that test negative to assume that they're in the clear when it only means that they haven't been infected or infected but not yet infectious.

Within three months, China virtually extinguished the virus in its population and that was without any lead time in tackling it, before and after it was already endemic in Wuhan/Hubei. It did so by using every tool available and could be constructed to contain it. The differences between what China and the US did are dramatic; a conservative "we have to get rid of it" versus an "oh well, it'll go away."

The nationalized, quasi-lockdown in the US did no more than give NY, NJ, MA, CT, PA,and RI hospitals a bit of breathing space. High national cost and low value. The initial step of designating a single hospital for COVID-19 patients in Wuhan wasn't done in any US 'hotspot,' and when that hospital was inadequate to the need China converted local spaces to use as hospitals and built more hospitals. In China, those in lockdown were monitored by volunteers and did the best it could do in isolating those with symptoms but not sick enough to require hospitalization. China locked in and locked out by location. IOW - from the lockdown, there was no viral migration out of Wuhan or into Wuhan. Wealthy Manhattan residents fled the city in droves and some of them carried the virus with them.

The worst hotspots are in very poor communities. These people are seldom tested.

Those in poor communities didn't introduce the virus from abroad. (Fear of poor people infecting wealthy people is a very old meme in the US.) Santa Clara County in CA was an initial hotspot and it's hardly a 'poor community.' No US hotspots are being managed. What good is a test for poorer people who can't afford to get sick? Can't change their live/work conditions if they are sick. Must work if employed by an 'essential' business that more likely than not doesn't provide sick pay (but probably got PPP money for themselves). What does "seldom tested" mean? Few have been tested or few have been regularly tested? As of yesterday, total tests administered are less than 11.9% of the US population. Number of tests (a gross number and the only one that's being released) does not equal number of people tested. Trump alone may account for a hundred tests. Technically and at a minimum,, every case requires two additional negative tests to confirm viral recovery. At the most only 10% of the US population has been tested; so I suppose we could say that Americans are "seldom tested." But it's early days and perhaps we'll squander another 300 million tests.

(China recently did 60 million tests in Wuhan within a ten day period and found practically no infections. The labs processed those tests in batches and only drilled down to individuals if the batch tested positive.)

The antibody tests are not ready for prime time and aren't of much medical value in the midst of an epidemic anyway.

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3 users have voted.

@Marie @Marie @Marie I don't see anything you said, far better than I ever could, as being contrarian. I suspect you have a far better knowledge of the issues and medical side than I do. Everything you say tracks pretty well with my understanding.

I will grant that even a 85-90% accurate test to determine if one is infected is clinically useful despite the problems false positives and negatives create. Accuracy is great in a clinical setting but can be dealt with. What it does to all the data so many people take for gospel and obsess on is another matter.

There is nothing I can think of that recommends what has been done in the US to address the pandemic. It's a dog's breakfast that any self respecting dog would reject on sight. The Korean and later Chinese responses, especially the Korean, are textbook examples of how to go to war effectively on a virus outbreak. Managed testing and contact tracing go hand in hand and are the best tools available for breaking the infection chain. They are also the last things the US would ever do because cost and "Free-dumb!".

The one disagreement I have is with respect to the poor being an epicenter of infection as well as the hardest hit and least tested/treated. What you say from a US perspective may be accurate but not here. There are few places in the US that compare with most of South America and the world. I have close neighbors, farmers, who live in little better than glorified chicken coops. (These folks are the nicest, friendliest, and hardest working people I've ever known. It's humbling to be new to an area and have very poor people come to your aid. It's what they, now we, do for each other.) The centers of the highest percentage of infection, cases, and deaths were the slums in Guayaquil, Quito, and the farm worker settlements on the coast. The rest of South America has followed this trend. I still find it amazing that the US tops Brazil simply due to the far higher concentration of slums in Brazil. (Hang on the US is well on the way to #1 in slums too.) Chile, Columbia, and Peru aren't far behind. I can't believe Argentina isn't worse still. Absent the fire storm that swept through Guayaquil and the slow, poor government response, Ecuador would have done spectacularly at limiting the number of infections and deaths. These are failures readily acknowledged by the government and medical communities. Several sources have claimed that poverty is an equal risk factor to advanced age. Of course, that may not be accurate everywhere.

The first cases here were a woman returning from Italy, IIRC, who gave it to several family members. Ecuadorians who can afford to vacation in Europe all have workers in their homes who live in difficult conditions. Guayaquil is the tropics, March is still summer. The disease goes straight into the heart of their communities where it races around but it isn't recognized until it's impossible to ignore. Those conditions are perfect for a long incubation but quickly infectious agent like Covid.

Again, thanks for a well written comment. I can always learn and I especially appreciate another perspective.

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4 users have voted.

@vtcc73 It's the live/work conditions in poorer communities that more easily spreads a virus, but they aren't responsible for either the introduction of the virus into their communities or for their live/work conditions. Wealthier people everyone depend on low wage workers to do all the hard labor that wealthier people can avoid and never take any responsibility for the health and welfare of those they exploit and this instance have infected.

During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, I read as widely as I could. The most fascinating element is that people in the poorest affected country, Liberia, got in under control and eliminated before the slightly wealthier countries that had more help from western med intervention. They did so with quickly trained ordinary people that employed simple and effective means to identify those infected at the earliest stage before they infected others and moved them to rudimentary treatment locations.

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3 users have voted.

@Marie When elephants fight only the grass suffers. applies to the poor.

These people certainly didn't bring their illness on themselves. Just working to get by was their only sin. It's not right how they're treated.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

for ANY of this?

Yesterday, also, Florida recorded more than 10,000 new covid-19 cases for the first time ever, and California recorded over 9,000 new cases for the first time ever in a single day. Yes, increased testing is undoubtedly a part of that. However, testing has been at very high levels for at least the past couple of weeks, and positive cases have been increasing every single day.

Hospitals in southern California are now at max capacity for covid-19 cases, and they are now shipping patients up to San Francisco to handle the overflow. Florida hospitals are maxed out. I heard from a friend two days ago that Milwaukee hospitals are now maxed out again, whereas about 2 weeks ago the covid-19 areas were relatively empty.

Seriously, when did we declare COVID essays to be link free zones?

Apparently the statement about Milwaukee has already been shown to be non-operative. So maybe an edit might be the responsible move?

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2 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

Updated the original post with receipts. Easy google/duckduckgo search to find, really . . .

Not changing the Milwaukee one because I haven't seen proof either way. Siding with my friend for now . . .

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@apenultimate

I was interested in your CA link:

According to the California Emergency Medical Services Authority, at least 15 people have been moved from Imperial to hospitals in the Bay Area. UCSF — which has relatively low numbers of coronavirus patients and can offer highly specialized care — said this week it had received at least three. Stanford has also accepted patients.

That gives me a better perspective on the scale of the problem.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

polkageist's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger
I live in Santa Cruz, on the coast about 70 miles south of San Francisco, and this is what we are seeing:

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2020/07/07/coronavirus-continues-to-su... .

Perhaps this info sheds some light on the situation for you.

It's stories like this that make me upset by people who are so sure of their point-of-view. Even in a backwater like ours we can see something really bad happening. I'm 84 and am a poster child for dying from this stuff. I really have to bite my tongue not to lose my temper with people who blithely tell me they have all the answers when it's obvious that no one does. Not even people who are trained to cope with stuff like this. I watch John Campbell on YouTube daily because he explains some of the physiology and chemistry that goes on with this disease. He also makes sure his viewers know he doesn't have the answers. But he is knowledgeable enough to understand the problem. That's what I like.

I'm glad you got over this disease. It appears to be one of the most capricious viruses we have come up against. The symptoms are not child's play obviously.

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-Greed is not a virtue.
-Socialism: the radical idea of sharing.
-Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962

ovals49's picture

It sure seems so to me.

Read more here courtesy of MoA’s “b”. “ The U.S. Has Surrendered To The Pandemic. Protect Yourself.

Please also visit rt.live for running updates on state by state changes in infectivity ratios as states “open up” with more business as usual activities. Plenty of data pointing at a rough ride ahead.

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12 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

snoopydawg's picture

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams