@Anja Geitz @Anja Geitz has not yet emerged. None will appear until the infection has affected more people--as proven by reliable tests. Estimates I have seen on medical sites such as MedCram and Peak Prosperity estimate that at least 60% of the public needs to be immune ignorer to reduce R0 below 1.0. With R0

Of herd immunity for covid-19, or are we suppose to die first to get that answered?

@CB will be the best estimate of coronavirus mortality. But even this won't be accurate on a 1 to 1 correlation. For instance, how many alcoholic cirrhotics will be tipped over the edge by increased imbibing? How many frail, elderly will fail to get adequate nutrition and die because of lack of funds and family? How many chronic bronchitics will poison their already compromised airways through excess smoking. Simply saying that excess deaths are ALL relate to SARS2 is incorrect. Because this plandemic (yes, I still believe this is a plandemic) has induced massive collateral damage including economic, family-based, stress-based. Consider myocardial infarctions which always increase during stressful times. People during prolonged stress have lowered immune function, thus permitting infections other than SARS2 to kill them.

for the deaths in excess of normal levels during this period if they have not been caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analyzed by the FT.

BTW, Sweden's economy will be affected just as much as their neighbors. The majority of Swedes actually self-quarantined to a large extent in spite of having no quarantine due to the fear factor. But a significant number did not. The country had 2,300 (28%) excess deaths. Norway, which had a strict quarantine had zero excess deaths.

Is there anything in their reports that estimate the number of deaths if there were absolutely no quarantines in the world (w/ or w/o the Wuhan lock-down)? What would the economies of the world be now if there were no quarantines?

@CB There were > 1800 such pertinent articles. Naturally I didn't read them all. But I did read the following article:

Model the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 propagation with public health intervention as published without peer-review on MedRxiv.

In the process of COVID-19 spreading, the spreading among these seven
states is governed by the following assumptions. It is assumed that β is the con-
tact rate of susceptible individuals with spreaders and the disease transmission
follows the mass action principle. A researcher assume that susceptible individ-
uals home quarantine or stay at home at the rate θ. And at a rate θ0 staying at
home is not fully protected from the virus due to ineffectiveness of home quar-
antine. The one who completed incubation period becomes to infected at a rate
of σ, that means 1 is the average duration of incubation. According to clinical σ
examination, the exposed and infected individuals becomes isolated at a rate of η and α respectively. It is assumed that the infectious infected individuals, leading to disease prevalence. The average duration of infectiousness is 1 , when
γ
γ is the transmission rate from infected to recovery or death. In my assumption recovery from isolated infected is better than and infected class due to clinical treatment. Infected and isolated infected are recover with a probability of κ1 and κ2, and also they will becomes to death with a probability of (1 − κ1) and (1−κ2) respectively. The parameter Λ is the recruitment, while μ natural birth and death rate of each state individuals. The parameters are all non-negative.
Based on the above considerations, COVID-19 spreading leads to dynamic transitions among these states, shown in figure 1. The model can be described by the following system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations:
dS
dI =σE−(γ+α+μ)I, dt
dQ =ηE+αI−(γ+μ)Q, dt
dR =κ1γI+κ2γQ−μR, dt
dD = (1−κ1)γI +(1−κ2)γQ−μD, dt
dH =θS−(μ+θ0)H, dt
= Λ − βSI − (μ + θ)S + θ0Q, N
= βSI −(σ+η+μ)E, dt N
dt dE
(1)
N(t) = S(t) + H(t) + E(t) + I(t) + Q(t) + R(t) + D(t).

Each line of this MODEL represents a supposition based upon assumptions which may or may not be applicable to the current SARS2 epidemic. Yes, the variables inserted representing the various population groups might be reasonable and proper, but assumptions are made in the field--not by pathology / autopsy confirmation of total members in each class, as represented in figure 1. We have discussed this issue in multiple essays and comments before.

Populations S, H, I, Q, E, R are all based upon incomplete knowledge.

I distrust models because they are purported to be real-world related, which is what CNN purports to be. The Central California area is having a light go of it. But the model I see does not take into account population density, personal hygiene, economic status, occupation/employment, etc.

already done that could answer some of the questions I had. Do you know if the doctors have cited any?

https://www.medrxiv.org/search/Epidemiology%252Band%252BTransmission%252... 1,799 Results for term "Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19"

@CB This is not "the flu". The mortality is much higher as judged from excess death statistics. As I have mentioned in the essay and comments above this one, excess deaths is not a simple matter of parsing. Other factors as I alluded to are obvious confounders. My opinion is that SARS2 is quite deadly for the high risk groups, which contain many members, including myself.

Covid-19 just "another flu". We already have vaccines for the winter flu and they are in widespread use in the country. These vaccines will cover two of the most dangerous aspects of Covid-19: 1) asymptomatic spread by young, healthy people and 2) higher death rate in elders with comorbidity.

Another VERY important factor is that there is already a very high herd immunity with the winter flu. That's why we don't have to worry about a pandemic developing.

Once herd immunity and vaccines are developed THEN we can say Covid-19 is just like the flu.

@Linda Wood Perhaps this autoimmune-like inflammatory disease, resembling Kawasaki syndrome, is due to SARS2 but was not apparent until overall pediatric-adolescent caseload increased to a certain point.

In drug trials, the concept of Phase 4 evaluation is well-known. This is also called after-market experience. Such information cannot be obtained until a certain informational critical mass has been achieved. For drugs, this might require millions of doses of a particular medicine.

But the same concept can be applied to the emergence of of more case information. One example is Alzheimer's Disease. Dr. Alzheimer's did not discover the disease named for him but he was the first to comprehensively describe a disorder which was never well-enough represented in populations prior to the advent of the revolutions in technology and hygiene. These permitted greater numbers of patients to survive longer than the 65 year old age at which AD cases become progressively more common.

So, now with SARS2 we may be seeing an inflammatory disorder in younger patients due to multiple mechanisms, all of which have been described in adults:
conjunctivitis
cough
sore throat
pneumonia
cytokine storm
anti-phospholipid antibody disorders (of which there is a large spectrum, many of which target the nervous system both central and peripheral)
intravascular thrombosis-->disseminated intravascular coagulation-->micro emboli-->multi-organ involvement, also including brain and heart.

with those who point out the clear difference in outcomes between Wuhan and New York City, both with 11 million people, but where Wuhan closed all transportation into, out of, and around the province, but which New York still hasn't done, I hate to be the one who brings up the terrifying news of possible new problems. We're not aware of what we're dealing with yet.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/07/851725443/mystery-i...

Mystery Inflammatory Syndrome In Kids And Teens Likely Linked To COVID-19

May 7, 20208:00 AM ET

MARIA GODOY

The serious inflammatory syndrome sending some children and teens to the hospital remains extremely uncommon, doctors say. But if your child spikes a high, persistent fever, and has severe abdominal pain with vomiting that doesn't make them feel better, call your doctor as a precaution.

Sixty-four children and teens in New York State are suspected of having a mysterious inflammatory syndrome that is believed to be linked to COVID-19, the New York Department of Health said in an alert issued Wednesday. A growing number of similar cases — including at least one death — have been reported in other parts of the U.S. and Europe, though the phenomenon is still not well-understood...