A way forward from the Pandemic
Call this newest plague what you will: COVID-19, SARS2, Chinese Virus, Wu Flu, certain facts are emerging clearly from rapidly accumulating medical evidence.
Should I try educating you about latest theories about pathophysiology, such as anti-phospholipid disorders, endothelial dysfunction, microemboli, compliant versus non-compliant lungs? Would that make a difference to anyone but medical scientists? These niceties are lost upon the general public, now thoroughly petrified of the great outdoors, of sunlight, of hugs and kisses, of handshakes, of social interactions of most any description.
There are several principles which must provide guidance for our future. We are rapidly learning specific disease-related facts at an astonishing rate, never before seen in medical science. But how do we utilize these facts to guide our behavior?
The answer(s) to this question depend upon belief systems composed of principles and desires. When we apply the facts to an underlying structure, themes emerge, clarified by subjecting them to principled scrutiny.
Basically, the principles reduce to "what is the value of human life?" Different resolutions to that question are shaped by the underpinning understanding of what constitutes value. My values are not your values--or perhaps they are. Certainly there are many gradations in the scenario.
Give two artists palettes with the same hues and tones, allow them to place their brushes, even if identical, onto the canvas (or paper or metal or wood, etc.) and certainly the results will be different.
Tell Monet to paint a tree and you get a much different rendering than Kandinsky would produce. Same paint. Same canvas. Same theme. Different expressivity.
But society must have some underlying sense of purpose or of desirability in order to function with semblances of cohesiveness. Cohesiveness allows for non-uniformity, so long as that differing sensibility does not tear the social fabric, at least when society works for the mutual good. Stretching the social fabric is called change or perhaps evolution. Tearing is rupture, revolution, destruction.
A fractionated society can function if respect for difference is allowed to persist despite those differences and so long as those differences are not in the whole destructive. No partisan claim of supposed moral superiority can be allowed to denigrate those not holding views adhering to those claimed superior values but who also desire that every person be allowed to freely express and act in their own principled manners. The proviso is always that such beliefs cause no harm to others.
What is written here subtly reflects my personal anti-authoritarian view of humanity: live and let live. On the converse I believe that live and let die is appropriate and humane.
How does one in good conscience condemn a person who wishes to end his/her life due to unbearable pain, whether physical or emotional? Live and let live is compatible with live and let die.
Strictures against suicide are almost universal, but not immutable. In Japanese society sepaku was and perhaps is still considered socially acceptable. Was Dr. Kevorkian entirely wrong? Consider yourself in the frame. Suppose you had a slowly progressive malignancy, which not only physically debilitated you but caused immense pain. Would you then not think perhaps it appropriate that continuation of such life bore no semblance of justification?
In this nation, allegedly, according to our Founding Charter, we hold that the pursuit of life and liberty are sacred. Is this what we believe now? If such is no longer the case, when did the new creed become extant? Was such a change in the concept of personal freedom a generally agreed upon alteration of the way things were to be? Who makes that choice? Is choosing to devalue personal freedom, when such never conflicts with the value of any other, the desirable path forward?
Who decides? You? Your family? Your clan? Your religion? Your government?
When you have answered this series of questions, then you may be content with a way forward which is perhaps the original one or a newly considered one.
Who decides the path forward?
Here is my underlying thesis: personal liberty involves personal choice. Of course limitations are necessary such as for children or those too infirm to think rationally (such as during acute drug intoxication or dementia).
Will anybody here contradict the following several considerations?
1. We all die. Speak of rapture if you will but those resurrected have already died to be later reborn.
2. Life is not fair.
3. Life is a gamble. You don't have to throw the dice. Someone or something may do that for you.
4. The only assured outcome--refer back to 1.
During the course of life, there are two possible ways in its progression: active or passive. One may switch at varying times between the two manners, but this is all there is. One may be trying to lead or to actively follow a course of action through life. One may simply default to be swept along, almost helplessly by passivity.
There is no third way of life progress. Contemplation is passive, even if it later leads to action. Action can be mindless. But action can be mindful. I contend that action must be mindful if one wishes to have any choice in the direction of one's life. True enough, external forces may preclude meaningful activity of self-volition, but even then one may attempt swimming against the tide.
Success is never guaranteed. Furthermore, there is no agreed upon measure of success for others than oneself. But each person, consciously or not, has internal measures of personal success, even when unable to verbalize it.
Pandemic: an almost universal experience of infectious process. More figuratively, this idea could be about ideas or other non-health related constructs. But here we discuss health, maintenance or surrender.
Facts: SARS2 is not an indiscriminate killer. It kills those susceptible as well as a few random victims of opportunity. This is true of all infectious diseases. Think of a fisherman casting his line. His aim is to catch a fish. He/she goes to where fish are most likely to swim. Then casting the line and lures, a fish may be retrieved. In fact many fish may be retrieved. But the fisher does not seek to catch a particular fish, he seeks to catch a fish of a certain type. A bass fisherman seeks bass of course, but not any one bass.
SARS2 seeks out victims, if such an anthropomorphism may be allowed, but not particular victims. The typical victim escapes the "hook" (viral spike protein) with little more than a small cut on the mouth or not even that much. In other words, for most of those exposed to line and lure, the consequences are mild to none. The majority of victims are:
1. Older than 65
2. possessing at least one co-morbidity
3. recipients of high initial viral load (e.g., city dwellers on subway cars)
The majority of deaths in Italy had average age 83. Yes, adolescents died. People die in drive-by shootings. It's the same principle. This doesn't mean we should excuse drive-by shootings or not mourn the loss of the young. How many people fear being killed during a drive-by shooting? Not many, unless perhaps you live in blighted sections of Chicago for instance.
Throughout civilization, since the days of the Black Plague, and even prior, citizens avoided the obviously ill but they did not cower in their homes. Life went on. For some, life ceased due to pestilence, but even during the Plague Years, the majority of the population survived.
SARS2 has nowhere near the virulence of bubonic plague. One-fourth of the population is not dying from it. Perhaps 2% are dying of SARS2, but this figure will be modified downward as more testing confirms the truer number of those infected.
Principles of contagion have been, until now: quarantine the sick; allow the healthy to be free.
Free.
Allow the healthy to be free.
Those at risk should be allowed to quarantine themselves out of simple self-interest. If they choose not to do so, the responsibility and the consequences are theirs.
But, you retort, what about spreading the contagion to those who meet such risk takers? True, that is a consideration. In the calculus of life, does one not almost automatically gauge risk? Consider crossing several lanes of traffic in the car you drive when there is oncoming traffic. Some decide to cross too soon. The most cautious wait until all oncoming traffic has passed. But most will apply judgement, borne of experience, in deciding when it is "safe" to cross those traffic lanes.
Consider that your objection fails to consider the vast majority of the infected have minor symptoms and a large proportion of those infected know not that they have been infected. Is the chance of disease spread any greater coming from an at risk person who has no or minor symptoms any greater than than a non-at risk individual with no or minor symptoms? The answer is obvious but if you haven't grasped this truth then here it is:
Any person can give you the RONA even if neither you nor they think they are involved. This is true of the yearly influenza. People pass on the flu without knowing if they have it. Of course, if one is obviously symptomatic, social contact should be avoided.
How is herd immunity developed? There is only one proven way--and vaccines in general are not the way. That way is to have infected herd members mingle with the rest. This insures passage of the disease and building up new immunities provoked by the new organism.
Sheltering in place for the healthy defeats the principle of developing herd immunity. In the early SARS2 phase, we didn't know the true virulence. Outlandish estimates of 2,000,000 U.S. deaths were made as if this were a reprise of the 1917-18 Spanish Flu. It is now quite well understood that this is NOT the case.
Analogizing the infectious consequences of influenza and SARS2, the vast majority recover uneventfully. Repeat: the vast majority recover uneventfully. Are we going to shut down society during the next flu wave, even though we can reasonably expect up to 60,000 people will die of it? Suppose for argument sake, that the final SARS2 death toll in 2019-2020 is 100,000. This is less than an order of magnitude higher. In fact such mortality would be 2/3rds greater than the 2009 swine flu. Not an insignificant number.
But are we to forbid activities with known even higher mortality such as driving, smoking, alcohol?
Where is the line of demarcation?
Back to principles: which do you value more: walking freely in sunshine or cowering in homes afraid of all human contact?
The essence is freedom versus fear. The choice is not health versus safety. Return to theorem number 1 above. The end is inevitable. No one gets out of here alive. This is Hotel California.
Do you want to live in a suite or in the basement?
Choose life. And choose freedom.
The choice is yours.
Comments
Remember, people life is a gamble
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3H6pH78euU]
I spend time in now open Georgia
...living here on the AL border. Had to go to the parts store this week and was appalled to see groups of folks hanging out, shaking hands and hugging, and few to none wearing masks.
So I'm all for your general premise. Those ready to go out should be able to do so. I just say wear a mask to protect others, and if you've not been infected a mask will reduce your initial viral load. I would also add that social distancing remains a good strategy to reduce spread. I'm willing to bet there will be a second wave in GA based on the way in which people are re-entering here.
On a positive note, the planet is celebrating the break from its human infection with cleaner air and water.
Be well.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Lower vibrational thinking
is what I'm reading. The universe is in charge, which doesn't seem to sink in, but will eventually. There is something bigger than any of us going on here. I have a great respect for the intelligence of the virus. It could mutate and change into something else. The universe is asking us to respect the higher intelligence at play here because anything that can stop the world, which this virus has done, has got to have some kind of higher intelligence. (I know that is a difficult concept for some here - especially those rooted in science.)
We need to be more discerning about information and learn what is fake, what is lies, what the different opinions are. We must embrace that we are one together - we are all breathing the Covid air - imagine that - only a higher being could make that happen.
It's time to be adaptable. It's time to appreciate our immediate environment. People whining about wanting to be out and eating out and hugging others are not learning the lessons being brought forth. They will suffer so that we can all learn together. We've got to watch that we don't jump the gun. There is something big gong on and we need to be humble (hard for Americans) and cautious and careful. How are we taking care of one another? ARE we taking care of one another? We have to make sure we have correct data and basing our actions on good data and to admit if we don't know. This is a time for honesty.
Let's all live in the present moment, and embrace it. Let's all live in love and care for one another. Raise your vibrational thinking to one for a greater humanity.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
And in the end
[video:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=12R4FzIhdoQ]
cheat the hangman
Thank you for this beautiful Doobie Bros song!
I’ve too been posting and messaging their songs such as Minute by Minute to dear friends and family lately, it takes all of us back to a sweeter time.
So, I have to ask do we know each other, or are we just universal kindred spirits?
Not to hopefully sidetrack this thread but people clearly do relate in different ways.
Some by facts and figures, others on a different level.
So here goes.
Hope you don’t mind another throw back and enjoy it too.
S
[video:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jKM5dIANXE8]
yes we are kindred
mayhaps in a parallel universe
probably bumped into you at some jam
a flash of recognition
too soon forgotten
yet still alive
thanks for remembering
Oh man
From beneath the starry sky, somewhere out there, someone’s thinking of you and me, all of us and loving us tonight.
The Highwaymen
Yep.
[video:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aFkcAH-m9W0]
we will remain after all the pain
like being on the road again
thank you for being here
good sentiment
Your remarks lately are remarkable.
Don't stop. They have active ingredients.
By your estimation, what would be the death
rate in the US if State imposed quarantine and isolation had not taken place? How about China? The rest of the world? I do note that in places where prompt and severe actions to quarantine/test took affect earlier, the better the outcome has been - especially if such action was done immediately and forcefully - as China, Vietnam, Singapore and Korea did by Jan 20, 2020. BTW, these facts put the lie to China's hiding information or lying as being the cause of the current US predicament.
These countries were able to start developing test kits due to China's sequencing the virus on Jan 10.
EDIT: Added text to following:
The economies of countries that responded in a timely manner to curtail the coronavirus have fared much better. Fortunately, these countries were in a better position to produce materiel in support of those in worse shape.
There is a tremendous difference in the demographics of today versus 1918. There are now many, many more elderly people living with comorbidities who have survived to that age due to advances in health care. How would we protect these vulnerable people who are still living productive lives? How about the millions of young people with diabetes and other diseases that are controllable today but not in 1918?
What about health services being overwhelmed? How would we decide who would get hospital care, ventilators and other essential treatment and who would be put on sedatives and allowed to die as was done in Italy and other countries. How would that affect the normal death rate if accident victims, poisoning and all the other normal day-to-day afflictions could not be dealt with in a timely manner? What about cross contamination at hospitals - go in get a broken bone set and come out with SARS infection?
Do you think, with a massive unchecked outbreak of this SARS-like virus, it would get better odds to mutate to a more virulent form? In the past, if a more virulent form evolved, the chance of it migrating further afield was hundreds of times lower. One of the main reasons the 1918 was severe was because of the massive global movement of people at the end of WWI. Global movement is now many orders of magnitude greater than 100 years ago.
What's your thoughts on this?
It would be an interesting project to do commuter simulations of the different outcomes given the myriad input data. But this would require an artificial intelligence-based big data system to do the calculations. Maybe by that time the PTB would put our
namegenome sequence and current health/financial situation in the computer to do a cost-benefit analysis........Thank goddess I had the freedom of a Huckleberry Finn childhood - raft and all. It was rough living in my house all the time due to how dismal regular and decent my mom was; so when I couldn't stand it no more I lit out.
do a cost-benefit analysis
the insurance / finance / policy institutions are already running the numbers
the loss to cost ratios would seem to favor mass extinction
going by the present modeling of pandemic response in the US
Not to get all "testy" about it, but you don't need
a basement full of computers and databases and stuff to develop a qRT-PCR test for some random novel genome. Pretty much all the necessary tools are available on public websites (e.g., at NCBI) or for download onto a decent desktop, which could easily handle the necessary computations.
Christian Drosten's group at Germany's Charite research institute had their fully-designed prototype ready in 6 days after the Chinese released the genome (they're really good at this stuff, and were already coronavirus experts). They published about a week later, after conducting surprisingly exhaustive tests (I've read their paper, including the gory details of their design). However, if you weren't quite as concerned as they were with the specificity and sensitivity, well -- a Malaysian group produced a design for a test in ONE DAY, which incidentally, I bragged in a comment here that I could have done. (And I could have. Because I used to do that sort of thing for a living. To the extent that it's rocket science, it is largely automatable rocket science, and the scale of the computations are not daunting.)
If you think I'm exaggerating, you can look up the SARS-Cov-2 genome at NCBI. If you do, you'll notice there is a link (among several others) to "Pick Primers". If you click on that, you'll be taken to a page where you can start designing primers to amplify some target subsequence of the genome. If you knew what you were doing, you could pretty much design the entire assay just using that utility.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
The Chinese published full info on diagnostic RT-PCR
for SARS-CoV-2. I think it was on Jan. 7. Primers, temperatures, criteria for positive results, criteria for negative results. Designing a test kit is pretty trivial, but it had already been done. The delay in this country was criminal.
Haven't seen that.
Odd that they'd publish that before the genome, since the genome itself is a necessary component of "proving" (to an outside party) that the PCR test is valid.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
China published the genome on Jan 10
They had already been working on it since late December. A partial genome sequence that showed it was SARS-like was published Dec 27, 2019.
Prof Mikhail Shchelkanov (FEFU Scientists' Council on 17-MAR-2020) said he knew sequence of the novel coronavirus genome by 7 January.
Nobody seems to read the links I have posted a number of times over the last three months so I'll post the details here.
I don't know whether other people do or don't
read your links, but I don't, not because I don't respect your efforts, but because I get most of the information I want/need directly from the primary sources. I'm not actually all that interested in the question of "who was first with which test," precisely because, as I've noted, it would have been quite easy for anyone with the sequence to develop one in very short order -- so the only question I've ever had was, why weren't there a hundred of them being publicized by the end of January? (BTW, I didn't see anything in your blockquotes about the Chinese releasing a qRT-PCR test before they published the genome. But of course they had one, they would've developed it even as they were assembling the genome.)
On the other hand, I read up on the German test because, A, it was "properly" published, meaning it contained the information I really wanted about how they tested it for sensitivity and specificity, and B. because everybody was yakkety-yakking about tests, and overall infection rates, and yadda yadda, so I wanted to know more about the test that was being talked about the most (at least in the places I was reading).
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
From my knowledge the answer to your question
The first kits required lab backup to perform the tests. This limited the production to countries which had sufficient facilities as well as financing. In Germany all the private labs worked together unlike in the US where the CDC wanted to control every aspect. Possibly this was because they wanted to direct the flow of cash to special interests?
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I could opine that the US government actually wanted to delay testing for some nefarious reason - like getting rid of the expensive deadwood clogging up the health and pension systems. They did everything possible to affect that end. Just think how much money that would free up to make highly profitable items like bombs and missiles.
I am a little off on the date
The virus was isolated on the 7th. The sequence was available on the 12th and the RT-PCR diagnostic protocol was available very shortly after that. 2-3 days I think, they would have had access to the sequence shortly before the release. Primer sequences were listed, reverse transcriptase temperature, PCR temperature and criteria for positives and negatives (appearance in 37 cycles positive as I recall).
this is why we can't have nice things.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Just to follow up
The sequence is variously listed as being released from Jan. 10-Jan. 12. However, an English group had developed an RT-PCR test by Jan. 10 so they must have had sequence data early on the 10th or earlier. A German, Dutch and English group published preliminary data with several PCR primer sets on Jan. 13 including tests on other Corona viruses. By Jan. 25, there was robust, validated data by a German and Dutch group.
I discovered this report from the Chinese CDC
It shows that COVID19 was first sequenced on January 3, 2020 and sent to GISAD which is accessbile by anyone.
Note that the report (published online on Jan 21) does
not give the date(s) when genome sequences were submitted to GISAID, only that the first genome had been assembled as of the 3rd.
I just tried to access the original record at GISAID so I could check on when it was submitted, and when GISAID released it (there is a curation process, I don't know anything about it), but to do so I would have to register, and their Terms of Use are professionally problematic.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
At least we now know two facts
1. The virus was sequenced by ChinaCDC Jan 3, 2020
2. Sequence directly received by CIDRAP(US) Jan 10, 2020
If Trump had not removed Dr. Linda Quick from ChinaCDC July 2019, the USCDC would have been in a much better position to have known the genetic sequencing was done by Jan 3, 2020.
China should be more proactive in rebutting false claims and have ChinaCDC itself post a timeline. In any event, it is ludicrous to say that it was China's fault for the US delay in addressing the situation for 6-8 weeks. To add insult to injury, Trump actually downplayed it's danger during this period. Trump is personally responsible for the extent of the damage the COVID19 pandemic created in the country. He consistently kneecapped the USCDC.
You may find this site of use:
You do get that I'm not really arguing with you
about the general timelines right? I would just like to get all the dates nailed down precisely, so I know what I'm talking about when discussing with others.
I already have access to most of ScienceDirect, and about 95% of all journals of any serious interest. Maybe I'm not being clear, but this is what I do for a living.
Folks can also access a lot non-ScienceDirect stuff through PubMed, which already provided free access to a bajillion journal articles, but I believe is also now acting as a clearinghouse database for covid-19 stuff that would normally have been subscription-only (you'll find links to all of the ScienceDirect stuff there as well). And the NIH maintains a page with links to all manner of covid-19 information. Like, for example, this link to a database search for clinical trials around the world related to Covid-19. (When I tried it just now, it returned 1133 hits, about half of which are in the "Recruiting" phase.)
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
What is it that you do for a living UR?
i hunt alligators
down on the bayou
BTW, the entire, complete and only reason I mentioned Mengele was in the hopes that I would have the chance to type this:
I'm sorry that you were insulted by my suggestion that Joseph Mengele was a worse doctor than you are. I take it back. mea culpa
In the end, I'm all about the comedy. So thanks for that.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Thanks for the apology
Don't shoot any two-legged gators in the bayou, okay.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvqqzMRoEqI]
Yes
I would also like to get the timeline set down correct. That's why I have been poking around since the outbreak, especially on how China has been handling the outbreak. They have been considerably more transparent this time around. Unfortunately the Trump administration has been fomenting a lot FUD against China and it has taken root in the US.
I hadn't realized just how much more knowledgeable you were in these matters.
What I really want to emphasize is this:
What I mostly know is how much is not known, by me or anyone else. Or at least, anyone who's sharing it in a way we can clearly see and have faith in.
Most of what I have posted about Covid-19, I hope anyway, has emphasized uncertainty.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Why did the Trump administration
eliminate a US held position at China's CDC last July?
This effectively blinded the US to inside information from China when it came to dangerous infectious diseases of which many were raging in the country at that very time.
No idea
except that administrations have been getting stupider and more political for decades. The Trump administration reaches new levels for both. I am guessing the Trump administration's action were stupid and colored by their negative view of China. Ultimately, there is value in having intelligent people in administrations.
Reddit was talking about it in Dec, '19
I read about it back then, and I watched YouTube videos about it back then. I knew it was just a matter of time before it hit us too.
I'm not convinced that a medical expert in China would have been believed by the idiots in charge here, any more than the ones in Italy or anywhere else were, or are. Douchebag in chief said it would go away like a miracle, and then suggested bright light through the skin and injecting bleach. Even my mom, a staunch Trump supporter, was shocked at the latter, and she still thinks that antibiotics should be prescribed for any sniffles she might get.
I'm disgusted by the way this has been mishandled and mismanaged, and how we waited for a public-private partnership regarding testing. It's flat out disgusting and criminally negligent imo. It's HIV.2 We let people die so we could say we developed our own test, when one already existed, back then too. Similar is happening with the newest drug being touted as being so promising, but it's not (at least not according to the data -- ours and in China too). But, somebody has money to make, so we'll pretend it works.
So what caused the CDC test to take so long
and how did the it get so screwed up (contamination) in the first place? Why are so few test kits available in the US almost four months after the genome was originally sequenced?
FDA Approves First At-Home COVID-19 Test Kit, Available for $119 Out of Pocket
04/22/20
Take note that China started at ground zero. They had no idea of what they were dealing with nor the extent of the problem for the first several weeks. But, once they fully realized the situation, they jumped on it like two tons of bricks. They literally went to a war footing and pulled out all the stops. On Jan 23, 2020 they sealed off the epicenter completely. They even closed side roads with truckloads of rocks and dirt. Within 24 hrs the streets were empty.
Every country that followed suit flat-lined new cases within two months or less. They can now test and treat w/o getting overwhelmed.
How accurate would these home brew tests be w/o at least a few weeks of field testing? Maybe that's why several companies, both here and abroad, had batches of faulty kits.
BTW, the Chinese government gets blamed for shipping faulty materiel's when they had no control of foreign purchases from some private Chinese companies. Some of the purchases were for ordinary dust masks. Some buyers in Europe saw the cheap price and bought them instead as export papers have proved.
Now that the Chinese government has put their foot down and banned the export of ALL masks and tests unless they are certified for a specific use noted on bill of lading, it is being blamed for "hoarding" them. Each shipment of these goods must now be certified to the standards set by EACH different country. This has added time and expense.
I really don't know what went wrong with the US attempt
to develop a test, and it will probably be a good long while before anyone puts that whole story together. Again -- by Jan 25 or 26th (I'd have to go back and check) the German group had published, not only the test protocol, but a comprehensive explanation of its workings, including comparative analysis of other coronaviruses that needed to be designed "around". They hadn't just designed the primers, they had tested them quite extensively in vitro, which took up most of the "development time" (though maybe not, if they also had access to the sequence on Jan 7, rather than Jan 10).
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
As to the "quality" of a given test -- that's what I was
getting at when I mentioned the Malaysian primer set that was designed in one day. It's one thing to design some primers, and it's something else to validate them -- and in particular to prove that they don't flag close relatives of the target (which is a MUCH bigger problem with the antibody tests). And in the context of something like SARS-Cov-2 it's pretty much impossible to do that validation if you don't have a BSL3 (I think ... might need BSL4) lab and samples of those other coronaviruses.
But the information-processing part -- searching the new genome for sequences that don't appear in other organisms, and that have satisfactory "kinetics" -- is pretty straightforward.
It's possible that poor design may have caused some cases of faulty kits, but (pure opinion here) more likely it was poor quality control in the manufacturing process, as folks were rushing to cash in. Also, BTW, it's possible that some kits had high false negatives because they depended on priming off a sequence that had mutated in a regional outbreak. The thermodynamics of these things are pretty sensitive, and if you have a one-base mismatch within 3 or 4 bases of the end of the primer, it can fail. Now, that might be considered "poor design", if the designer failed to target parts of the genome likely to be "highly conserved", ie., resistant to mutation because it makes the virus less successful.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
My understanding of the CDC screwup
Rather than go with the validated Qiagen (German) kit, the CDC decided to make their own. As far as I can tell, this was just a bad decision. I don't know their motivation. They then assembled the kits in a lab at the CDC that was working with SARS-CoV-2, and they got them contaminated. This was criminal stupidity. When they started to use the kits, they began to run into problems with negative controls, not surprisingly. In addition, my understanding is that the CDC stuck to the influenza model in which samples are collected around the country and sent to the CDC for analysis. This is OK for flu, but indicates a failure to perceive the danger with SARS-CoV-2. All this set back response to the virus for weeks. On top of this, one has the profound ignorance and stupidity of the Trump administration, who did not see the danger and had no idea how to respond. If we had had diagnostic kits and appropriate procedures in place in late Jan or early Feb, tens of thousands of lives would have been saved. I am not a virologist, but it is my opinion, and that of a colleague that worked on SARS-CoV that the response amounts to involuntary manslaughter or negligent homicide.
the brilliance of the top echelon
could very well be described as
it would seem these are our esteemed leaders in a nutshell
boy howdy do we ever pay for it
Another reason,
a major one, why Trump is a dangerous person to have in the WH at this time or any other time.
He doesn't care. He doesn't bother to come up to speed on the science bc science is for sissies and losers and Demo wimps. Only cares about himself -- he is always putting his narcissistic tendencies on display -- and whether the situation will affect his re-election chances.
Dismissing a chief scientist at CDS or cutting their budget -- it's just another gov't bureaucrat and bureaucracy.
What a great analysis.
I read these details before, especially on the face mask issue. But you put it together well. The US media view of Red China exports is — If it comes from China it is sent by China's Communist Dictatorship. "China is not supposed to have private businesses acting like capitalists. Sending out products that were privately manufactured. Why aren't the communists regulating these sellers. Why aren't they closing them down and putting them in prison camps? China is pretending they are part of some kind of free market."
Wait until the US right wing finds out that the Chinese don't pay income taxes. The Chinese people get to keep all the money they make. Republicans will be sooooo confused. This years' Credit Suisse Wealth Survey found that China has overtaken the US for the first time. China ranks as the number one nation with the world's richest people. Before long, China will be paying UBI.
Who's a communist now, taxpayer?
I realized that I stopped reading your comment
to respond to the one particular point on which I have deep knowledge, and never even attempted to address your concluding points/question:
These sorts of problems are already studied extensively. When limited to the realms of living organisms, they come under the umbrella of "Systems Biology". When limited to the realms of fanciful political ideology masquerading as science, they come under the umbrella of "Economics". That was a joke. Sort of.
Anyway, the big problem you're going to encounter is a lack of solid, unbiased real-world data from which to extract or infer important parameters of the simulations. People certainly do model disease epidemiology, including stuff like mutation and competitive virulence. I don't read those papers, so I can't speak to the state of the art.
Also, I don't get very excited about terms like "artificial intelligence" and "big data" and "supercomputer", because that's the realm in which I operate. It's a bit mundane to me. I work on servers with terabytes of RAM. No, that's not a typo -- I have 24/7 access to machines that have 1,000 Gigs of RAM each. Some have more. (BTW, if the S Koreans had been developing an antibody test, that might warrant big data and supercomputers. There's a project at the University of Washington that is crowd-sourcing such an effort.)
I think there's something vaguely hilarious about Americans getting up in arms (literally, in some cases) over the concept that some unknown but possibly large number of folks are currently dying because they can't get (or are avoiding) medical care due to the stay-at-home system. For some reason, most of those same people have been rather less concerned about the phenomenon in the past -- we know that every year tens of millions of americans can't get (or avoid getting) medical care due to the fuck-you-if-you-aren't-rich healthcare system.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
So, I should die because you have a "right"
To exercise your freedom. Life's a gamble, a crap shoot. We all die? I gotta say, that sounds peculiarly reckless coming from someone who purports to be in the profession of healing.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Could be worse.
After all, even Mengele purported to be in the profession of healing.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
First Do No Harm
Judging from the rationale in this essay, I guess it's become a quaint idea. Mengele, notwithstanding.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Can I do just a little harm?
Please?
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Have at it, Dude
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Reckless? How so?
A physician can not force any person to do anything (within certain limitations, as expressed in the essay). Anja, are you going to live forever? Do you want to do so? Do you want to live "in splendid isolation" in your fear cave? Risks and benefits, this is what health education is all about. If you surmise that your health status is fit, without known co-morbidities, you then realize from the massive cases material that your chance of death is minimal. Maybe you didn't understand the wording of my essay.
What is your view of that? You believe that no one should be allowed to express their freedom if by so doing, they put no one at risk except themselves. You are authoritarian if you do so. We must bend to Anja's conception of safety. Oh, not my conception of safety says Anja. Whose conception of safety is that then? Big Brothers or Big Sisters.
The impugned smear of my message is disgusting. You likely do not wish to understand the message. The healthy should be free to be out and out about--unless, as I wrote in the essay, they are symptomatic.
With imputations of Dr. Mengele by the other noble scientists and workers with supercomputers, their formulas and artificial intelligence busy posting in this thread, is there a single one who has cared for the sick and dying, other than perhaps family?
So brave you are to condemn the thought of freedom. You surrender yours when you think like the sheeple. You know little about the responsibility for life and death on the battlefield, nor do any of the knowledgeable savants opining about test materials and Chinese timelines.
Who makes your personal health decisions? Do you? Or do you allow those whom you have not chosen to be your own personal health-care advisors? Why, yes, that Fauci, that Birx, they are all-knowing and wise and beneficent to boot! By all means, we hear and obey their orders to sequester ourselves.
Much of this comment thread is made up of discussions of testing material and genomic sequencing. Does that confirm or deny my theses that life is a gamble and that people not infected should be allowed their privilege of chance to encounter whatever life's risks present? Do you have a problem with "live and and let live combined with the corollary of live and let die?
What are your views, eminent preacher of morality? A single sentence of condemnation? Surely you can do better than that.
This essay was designed to promote my feelings on the matter. Simply retorting with a cruel insinuation (which is indeed cruel) is not a discussion. Was this essay not worthy of greater consideration than your one-line condemnation? Maybe not. Maybe you have a better idea.
Let's hear your brave contribution to the public health debate, Anja. I'm waiting.
But, I doubt you have either the fortitude or the knowledge to contest my6 essay. Contest it with reason and with fact.
The problem withe your argument . . .
in thus specific case is that people can be shedding the virus without showing symptoms. Why should we assume that a healthy person infected by a person not showing symptoms wants to die or is indifferent to death?
More generally in a country where illness often produces such draconian financial consequences do we accept that a decision to die rather than destroy the future of your family is not a coerced choice. A highwayman gave travelers a choice. Your money or your life.
You still miss the point.
The fatality rate (as opposed to a still undetermined Case Fatality Rate) is minuscule for those with no comorbidities. I have said this several times. What is so difficult for you to understand?
If you have comorbidities, beware. If not, live your life knowing, yes, that life is a gamble.
So, here a second time is a little reminder of this major issue. Listen. It might yet sink in.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3H6pH78euU]
@ Alligator Ed - Kawasaki-Syndrome
Have you read something in your American sourced literature about the Kawasaki-Syndrome? It is more often seen in small children who are in corona-quartantaine lockdown, it seems. Read a short piece about it in the German press.
https://www.euronews.com/live
My take
For what it is worth. In my own state, Florida, nearly 60% of all cases statewide are confined to the three most populous counties in the state which lie contiguous to one another along the southeast coast. These three counties have just under 30% of the state's population but nearly 60% of the cases. I am not sure why that is except it does appear that areas with greater population densities are getting hit harder than smaller cities or rural communities.
My own county is out performing the statewide averages of infection and I cannot explain that reason either since our city is the seventh largest in the state. Nearly one third of our local cases all originated in an adult living facility for developmentally disabled people with half of those cases being residents and half being employees. What I gather from anecdotal information is that the virus is highly contagious in close quarters.
While mortality appears to be mostly confined to elderly and those with compromised immune systems, it still concerns me that as a member of the first group, my life may not be considered as valuable as that of someone younger than me even though as of my last physical in February, my doctor pronounced me as being very healthy. Still this virus does scare me because I seem to be susceptible to upper respiratory infections despite the fact that I do not smoke, nor suffer from asthma or similar breathing condition.
One of the reasons that shelter in place orders have been given is that many communities are fearful that their medical facilities may be taxed beyond their capacity if COVID-19 were to hit a group facility such as a nursing home or the living facility for the developmentally disabled like the one in my city. In the course of three days, 72 cases (or about 1/3 of the cases countywide)came from that one facility. Fortunately the hospitals in my town were able to handle those cases and only one death occurred as a result.
As of this week, our governor will be lifting some of the restrictions and easing some others, but I personally will continue to limit my public contact until I see the number of new cases systematically abate. For others here, your state may not have been as hard hit as Florida and your choice may be different.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy