Mom and Pop investor has total confidence in the stock market

The economy is collapsing and unemployment is expected to soon exceed 15%, but Mr. and Mrs. Joe Blow thinks that this is an excellent time to buy stocks.

Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, points out that through the end of last week, passive equity ETFs had seen a net $20 billion in inflows.
"Obviously selling is big among traders, institutions, computer algorithms ... but the one stabilizing factor in this market has been individual investors," he tells Axios.
"That has never been true before, and it’s a very unique aspect of this downturn."

The contrast between professional and amateur investors could not be more stark. As the pros sold out of risky assets like stocks and oil and even safe havens like gold and Treasury bonds, amateur traders were "maintaining a long-term perspective despite the market turmoil," Vanguard said.
Google Trends data show that throughout the month of March, searches for “how to buy stocks” and "Dow Jones" are soaring.

So let's get this straight. The professionals are selling during a global economic depression, but people that had to Google “how to buy stocks” think that the pros are wrong.
I wonder who's more likely to win this bet?

Over the past 30 years, like clockwork, retail investors have sold as the market hit its floor and a recovery was underway, and bought when the market was at or near its zenith and began to fall.

There's a reason why people on Wall Street use the term "dumb money", but hey, maybe this is the very first time in history that the insiders are wrong.
Joe Blow is bullish, but not as bullish as Asian retail investors.

Crashing markets are driving the biggest rush from Asian retail investors into stocks in a decade or more, brokers say, as bargain-hunting and a fear of missing out prompts a scramble to “buy the dip”.
...Google searches for the bargain-hunter’s catchcry, “buy the dip,” hit an all-time high on Wednesday, Google Trends data shows.

And where Asian indexes have fallen the furthest, interest from mum-and-pop investors has jumped the most as they deploy long-held savings or draw down loans to buy shares.

Ah, yes. FOMO. No bad investment decision has ever been made while under the influence of the fear of missing out. Let's not forget borrowing to buy stocks.

Earlier this year, 31-year-old insurance agent Heng Kai Sheng got advances on three separate credit cards to the tune of $150,000. With the money, he opened a share financing account at a local bank and pledged the lot as collateral.

He was granted leverage of around 3.5 times, a $500,000 kitty that he is ploughing into the stock market.

Yeh, that'll turn out well.

This week is the first real test of this "damn the economic fundamentals, I'm gonna get rich buying stocks" strategy is being tested.
Late last week oil crashed, and the retail investor rushed in to buy with both hands last week.

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But unperturbed, ETF investors continue to pile on despite the fact around 58% of all U.S. oil ETF holdings are positions in June WTI. Now, if June WTI rolls down to end-May WTI levels, i.e. lower teens over the next fortnight, as is appearing likely, investors in ETFs tracking front-month WTI long would lose substantial sums of money, possibly by as much as half of their original position.

This was the news on Monday morning.

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Adam Masten, a freight broker who also grows corn and soybeans, has no formal training in trading oil. But when he started reading headlines this month about the market’s historic plunge, he figured a crash of that magnitude couldn’t last forever. So he pulled up his TD Ameritrade account and spent $2000 buying options on two bullish exchange-traded funds, betting that oil would go up.

“I had never traded oil before and I don’t like to put my money to work until I read about it,” he said.

Then Tuesday happened.

oil2.PNG

On Monday, as oil markets crashed through the floor, the United States Oil Fund LP USO an exchange-traded fund that tracks the futures markets to give investors direct exposure to the oil price, tumbled 12%. On Tuesday at midday, USO was down another 30%, taking its loss over the course of its 14 years in existence to about 96%.

Which brings us to this very appropriate headline.

oil3.PNG

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vtcc73's picture

to get me out of everything. The risk was even higher than I usually accept and it was time to sit on the sidelines. Their system is heavily tilted to capital preservation since their business is managing retirement funds. They have been very good over the years. They're best in a down market at preventing/minimizing losses and good enough when the market is healthy. They had pulled the plug at about an 8% loss but remained minimally invested in what proved to be safe products. I'd usually ride out the storm relying on their really good judgement. Asking him to get me out completely was hard but they had sent out an email to all of their clients saying they were ready to return to the market in a limited, targeted manner. For the first time I baulked. There is too much, way too much, risk for tax advantaged retirement funds.

He's a good guy but he sounded disappointed and let down. I suspect he'd already had this conversation with other clients. I also note that despite the market gains, although with crazy volatility, they haven't announced a reentry strategy or timing. I think they have some money still where they feel it will be safe but for once I feel good that I may have gotten it right. I pay them to protect me from myself and I know what happens when I flail around in the minefield myself. It's money well spent to let the pros do what they do. Mom and pop are a short seller's dream.

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14 users have voted.

"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

@vtcc73
I've got more than a year's worth of income sitting in a savings account, and it's been bugging me.
But I learned a lesson some years back:
Wait for the investment to appear. Don't try to create one.

Now I'm waiting for the retail investor to get burned and give up.

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13 users have voted.
vtcc73's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit Every screw up investing I've made was on emotion or trying to get something out of a wish. Although even that is emotion.

That's why I chose the managers I did. They emphasize a systematic approach and data while ignoring emotion. That was partially why I was surprised they were talking reentry into a volatile market. A bounce was obviously coming but from my perspective a bigger crash was as likely to follow. The old dead cat may bounce but it's still dead, no? It sure looked dead. My first thought was that this was their emotional response trying to capture an uncertain short term gain. That, to me, was too risky and counter to everything they had done in all of the years I'd had a relationship with them. I still don't know but it is something that I'll consider in the future. It's also possibly a data driven decision that went sour. That would explain nothing else about reentry.

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt but right now sitting on cash doesn't hurt. I don't need to capture any upside but I do want to avoid giving any more money back to the house. It's taken decades but I hope I'm more aware of risk than I was when I was younger. I like having my only worry being when to get back in.

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7 users have voted.

"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Hawkfish's picture

@vtcc73

Is that this was a non issue for us. Now I’m wondering if any green energy companies are looking for some capital to expand and hire. One of the strange advantages of the diffuse nature of wind and solar is that installing them naturally incurs social distancing, so maybe we can put some people back to work while stealing a march on the ff industry.

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5 users have voted.

We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Sold everything--first time since 1996 that I didn't hold shares in something.

Even though things have been up and down like crazy lately, I've always been a long-term, buy low, sell high investor (i.e., not a day trader).

I figure things are going to eventually go really low in this Great Depression hitting us. As retail sales drop over the next year as a large percent of the population lose the ability to buy things (like mobile phones, computers, vacation trips, airline tickets, etc.), it'll crash. That's my bet at any rate.

If I'm wrong--so what? I'm not losing a thing in the meanwhile, and I have some cash safely stored away.

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14 users have voted.

@apenultimate

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6 users have voted.

I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

until the entire financial system collapses. Making money on stocks seems a lot like getting a good deal on a steak dinner while enjoying the cruise on the Titanic. And turning stocks into cash means you're fully committed to the dollar. Good luck with that.

I'm at a loss on how to survive the coming years. Maybe just buy rural property with enough land to grow food.

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20 users have voted.

proposition, but now is certainly a better time to buy than a couple of weeks ago. It’s pure speculation whether a recovery will begin or whether we’re not at the bottom yet.

Also, the world of algorithmic trading and large funds is on an entirely other level than retail investors. Retail trading is a small fraction of all trading; I’m skeptical when people claim retail traders (even in aggregate) can significantly influence markets.

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8 users have voted.

Knowing that it didn't matter if HRC or DJT took office, any gains made in this utterly corrupt system would rob more from my soul than it was worth. I would rather die homeless and penniless than have to earn a comfortable retirement with gains made from such a vulturous and parasitic system.
As the market soared there were times when I questioned making a decision made on morality and integrity. Of course now with the crash those questions go away.
I heard a saying once, "it is hard to be a revolutionary when you have a mortgage to pay". My adaptation is "it is hard to fight for true systemic change when you have your retirement in the system you want to overthrow".

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15 users have voted.

to the effect that by the time Joe/Jane Average hear about "this really good stock you should buy" it is already far too late?

I'm sure there are savvy private small investors who do their due diligence and research and do well with it, but it seems like most of the people are working on tips little better than "Seabiscuit in the third race, it is a sure thing!"

We watched actual saved money go "poof" at the Wall St. casinos, once burned, twice shy.

For many people (who aren't in the elite Masters of the Universe group with the platinum-plated "get out of jail/debt free" card), getting greedy is a good way to end up broke.

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12 users have voted.

Wait for the crash to bottom out if you want to purchase any stocks or commodities.
Hint, it's not here at this time.
Look for the dow to be stable at well below 12000 for at least a month.
Everything is way over valued at this time.
Rule # 1 don't be greedy.
Rule # 2 always set an automatic sell price or "stop loss order" when you buy.
My 2 cents worth.

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5 users have voted.
The Liberal Moonbat's picture

It's certainly worth it if you haven't; your stock-market fixation reminds me of it.

As to whether "maybe this is the very first time in history that the insiders are wrong", my first question would be: How much real gravity, relative to the insiders, do pedestrian investors exert on the market? If it's secretly a lot, then maybe that could actually happen.

The way the stock market was always explained to me was, put tersely, "when people are confident, the market is good; when people lose confidence, it's bad" - this, of course, always perplexed me: If public confidence is all it takes to keep the market good, then why don't people just maintain confidence all the time (more broadly, the whole concept of "morale" has always struck me as illogical; who needs to do better when things are already looking good, and why would anyone artificially further handicap themselves when the situation is already dire and you need your best performance most?)? It's all just more fiat politics; society/the economy/etc is all nothing but a giant game of make-believe (and yes, getting back to π, I suppose that thesis does make me the anti-Max Cohen).

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4 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!