After Super Tuesday
Let's hope that Bernie cleans up on Tuesday, because the schedule isn't friendly afterwards.
In case Bernie underperforms tomorrow, here is what to look forward to.
Tue, Mar 10 Idaho primary 20 Open
Tue, Mar 10 Michigan primary 125 Open
Tue, Mar 10 Mississippi primary 36 Open
Tue, Mar 10 Missouri primary 68 Open
Tue, Mar 10 North Dakota Democratic 14 Open
Tue, Mar 10 Washington primary 89 Mixed
Michigan is the big one and Sanders leads by +9 as of two weeks ago.
Washington is also big, and Sanders leads by +6 as of last week.
Bernie is getting killed in Missouri, and you can probably expect him to lose the rest for that day.
Tue, Mar 17 Arizona Democratic primary 67 Closed
Tue, Mar 17 Florida primary 219 Closed
Tue, Mar 17 Illinois primary 155 Open
Tue, Mar 17 Ohio primary 136 Mixed
Illinois has a recent poll and Bernie is +2.
Bernie is getting destroyed in Florida.
Ohio and Arizona only have older polls that show Bernie is losing.
Tue, Mar 24 Georgia primary 105 Open
Sun, Mar 29 Puerto Rico Democratic primary 51 Open
Bernie is losing badly in Georgia.
There are no polls for Puerto Rico.
States further out usually don't have any polls yet.
Comments
The wait and see approach
is best used here. Until we see what happens tomorrow, everything can spin on a dime.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Exactly -- one day at a time
at least until Wednesday or Thursday or later if the ST states are also too incompetent to count the ballots.
The conservodems have launched a Hail Mary pass; it could be caught, land with a thud, or be intercepted.
More likely
out of bounds
We can hope --
(and by not including "out of bounds" as a possible outcome, I inadvertently disclosed that I haven't watched a football game in thirty years and not so often before then.)
The blood sport analogy
seemed appropriate. Time is running out. Basically, when the offense (centrists) have no options left, they send all their receivers (candidates) way down field and lob the ball (psy-ops advertising) close to the goal line (nomination). The defense (progressives) anticipate this, so we put in the tallest, highest jumping, best ball handling player (Bernie) to prevent a reception. Fortunately, the passer (name your favorite billionaire) clutches under pressure when seeing the futility of a catchable pass and opts to throw the ball close to the sidelines as to keep it out of the hands of a potential run back. Out of bounds. All they can hope for is a crooked referee. Game over.
Hope that makes sense.
Made me smile. n/t
CA might be slow
to report. 2/3 of voters possibly will be voting by mail, and the in-person machines are new and flawed. They only display 4 choices for an office at a time. To see more names, voters must know to hit the MORE button.
For president, there are 20 -- twenty -- candidates listed. In my county (each county displays a rotating different order of names) Bernie is listed last in the field of 20, which includes many who've dropped out and a handful of unknown vanity candidates that clutter the process.
For someone voting in person on the new machines, they would need to hit MORE 5 times in order to see Bernie's name.
Also L.A. county has eliminated several thousand polling places in favor of larger polling centers that can handle all the new machines.
I mailed in my ballot Friday, but it's 6 pages total (3 double-sided sheets), and that's a lot of paperwork to process for the hand counters.
Just saying, don't count on speedy election results from CA, least of all the delegate allocation, which is complex of course. For instance, only 1/3 of pledged delegates will come from statewide results. The rest of the pledged come from congressional district counts; 15% threshold, as with the statewide, in order to earn delegates.
With all the mail-in votes (m/be postmarked by ElectionDay) and new machine counting (doubtful this will be a completely smooth process), we can expect final results, especially in the delegate allocation, only weeks from now.
Now that Buttigieg and Klobuchar are out
it's pretty much a race between Sanders, Bloomberg, Warren, and Biden. Biden is, well, I'll let him speak for himself:
Bloomberg can be exposed as a Republican billionaire. Warren is in it for herself.
Biden has dementia.
There it is, in a nutshell. The neoliberal cultural stock, as I argued in a previous diary, is disintegrating. It's basically a question of how fast.
“One of the things I love about the American people is that we can hold many thoughts at once” - Kamala Harris
Not fast enough
To prevent a Trump dictatorship.
" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "
Warren voters will probably go to Bernie
So she'll stay in until the end.
Pete's and Amy's voters are more likely to go to Biden.
Promises have been made to Pete and Amy, eventhough Biden is sure to lose against Trump.
If they succeed, what are our alternatives for the GE?
I think #'s 3 or 4 could be doable if the other parties agreed. Both the Greens and the People's Party share our goals and they might be thrilled to run Bernie.
He's already an independent, not a Democrat, so he shouldn't have to worry over much about his immediate future. He might lose some Senate perks but would he want them at this point?
This is about the people vs. the corporate elite. This about democracy. I know our nation's founders would be with us here. The stakes are very high for this country and for the world.
Any ideas?
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
If they succeed
Then Trump gets re-elected. Simple as that.
If they stop Bernie then a lot of people will be looking at 3rd parties.
@gjohnsit If Biden is the nominee
If Biden is the nominee, I can just hear Trump saying Biden is illegitimate; the product of the coup. Think he would love to call another standard bearer illegitimate
He had the chance
four years ago to start a third party. He instead chose to support those who cheated him.
He will do so again if he loses. It's good that he has some principles. Few in the party do and that's why I demexited.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Let the Democratic Party know in advance that
...you are going to actively fuck them over on Election Day. Give them a chance to reverse their sabotage.
If they persist, then crush them on Election Day. Teach them that we control their elections — and the Democrats will not win another election until the Corrupt Corporate-Controlled Centrist Party Bosses stand down. Force them to stop accepting corporate money and run a clean campaign.
Everything else is surrender.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
In other words, Occupy the Democratic Party.
Let the Centrists go off and form a third Party.
We outnumber them.
That's how Democracies work.
IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
If they stop Bernie ~
a lot of people won't bother voting POTUS.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
as to your #3:
why would they? cash on hand might be an incentive to get him on the ballot, but the democrat party has made it all but impossible to get on the ballot. too tired to bring radical green (RIPower) bruce dixon's analysis.
this list is quite out-dated, but at the very least, they are anti-imperialist and eco-socialist:
https://www.gp.org/2020
myself, i like howie hawkins' 'which sectors to socialize', including all banks to start with. thought the bloke calling for an end to the US military is intriguing, if not pie in the sky.
You forgot the other option
5: A vest
I like that,
. It could happen here.
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
Jill Stein
personally invited Bernie to run on the Green ticket in 2016. She even offered to step aside and run as Bernie's VP if he accepted.
He did not. I don't know that we can expect anything different this time around.
[ETA: Clarifying year]
Chris Matthews is "retiring" - last show tonight
What a day, hey?
Wonder why
It's not as if he crossed any MSM red lines.
Is he heading for his bug-out compound in case
Bernie wins? /s
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
After Super Tuesday will be better than that
Sanders is set to win North Dakota and Idaho, similar to how he bested Clinton in those states in 2016. FiveThirtyEight shows Sanders winning those two.
And guess what? With Klobuchar out, Sanders also wins Minnesota on SuperTuesday! By a decent amount.
However, Texas has now reverted to Biden. The California race has narrowed considerably. And Virginia went from a tie to a Biden win.
It's a mix. Don't worry yet.
People are reporting that their votes don't count
They are giving lots of reasons. Their signature doesn't match what's on record even though they have been voting by mail for years. Their choice for president wasn't clear and lots of other reasons. If you voted by mail you should check to see if it got counted correctly.
Texas has closed over 700 voting places since 2012 and are still closing more. Any shenanigans that can be done are being done to keep the sociopaths in power. From 25 candidates running for president to this latest play by Pete and Amy and Liz refusing to drop out. I don't think anyone should have dropped out until after tomorrow because no one knows what could happen. But it's obvious why Warren is still in. Tulsi is still giving great speeches and I'd drop dead laughing if she pulled out a win somewhere. Centrist's heads would explode all over the country! Lmao.
A leftist is someone with morally correct politics. A liberal is someone who wants to feel morally correct w/o ever putting themselves at odds with power or costing themselves opportunities or experiencing the uncomfortable emotions that truth causes.
FiveThirtyEight
For the first time, 538 is showing Tulsi winning 2 delegates. She's never been on the delegate board before.
It doesn't seem to be Hawaii. I wonder where she is expected to win them?!?
Tulsi Delegates
American Samoa? After all, that's where she was born.
Doesn't seem so
It looks like one delegate is from Hawaii, and one from Colorado.
Of course, she won't reach the 15% needed to get either one of those. Interesting that Colorado is trending her way.
Just to follow up
So, 538, with all the changes accounted for (removing Klobuchar, Steyer, and Buttigieg), is showing the contests on March 10, immediately after SuperTuesday as falling out as follows:
Sanders wins--143 delegates total
Biden wins--126 delegates total
Sanders wins:
Michigan
Washington (state)
Idaho
North Dakota
Democrats Abroad
Biden wins:
Missouri
Mississippi
Not exactly a blowout. But definitely not Sanders unfriendly by any means. The election map is gonna look a lot more Bernie's color than Biden's color.
Awkward
.
Thanks, Pete. I'm sure that you will be rewarded for taking one for the team. He is not going away any time soon.
A leftist is someone with morally correct politics. A liberal is someone who wants to feel morally correct w/o ever putting themselves at odds with power or costing themselves opportunities or experiencing the uncomfortable emotions that truth causes.
Take this Warren
.
Okay, Liz it's your turn. What bills have you gotten passed? The cfb thingy doesn't count because it's been neutered. I'll wait...
A leftist is someone with morally correct politics. A liberal is someone who wants to feel morally correct w/o ever putting themselves at odds with power or costing themselves opportunities or experiencing the uncomfortable emotions that truth causes.
"Dad! Bernie's supporters are being mean to me!"
.
I won't say what I want to say to not only Megan, but especially to Whoopie. But here she is complaining about how mean Bernie supporters are whilst she turns around and calls them dirty thugs. Stay classy, Megan. And Whoopie, I remember when you were in our shoes. Funny how getting some $$$$ made you forget about that.
A leftist is someone with morally correct politics. A liberal is someone who wants to feel morally correct w/o ever putting themselves at odds with power or costing themselves opportunities or experiencing the uncomfortable emotions that truth causes.
Bernie crushed Hillary in Washington in 16
Hard to believe Biden could possibly pull within 6 of Bernie this time around.
Idaho and Washington?
That makes little sense. Bernie won Washington big last time.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
And North Dakota?
Bernie should do well there. He usually does well with the indigenous vote.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver