This really could be over by next Tuesday
Bernie is either tied for first, or has a slim lead in all the big states of Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia. Which puts Bernie in a very good place.
However, it's in California where a good night could turn into a tidal wave that would effectively end the primaries.
Under the terms set by the national party, candidates can only win delegates — the partisan electors sent to the Democratic National Convention to secure the Democratic nomination — if they nab at least 15% of the popular vote. Those with vote totals under that all-important threshold get a grand total of zilch.
As candidates scramble to rack up support in the lead-up to the California primary on March 3, the latest polls here are likely to send all candidates not named “Bernie Sanders” scrambling especially hard.
A Public Policy Institute of California survey last week gave the Vermont senator at 32% of the likely Democratic vote statewide. No other candidate reached the 15% threshold — though it was within the margin of error for Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg. And that was before Sander’s decisive victory in Nevada.
The good news for Sanders (and bad news for everyone else in the field) is reflected in the California current polling average from FiveThirtyEight. Sanders hovers near 30%, while Bloomberg, Biden, Warren and Buttigieg come in just under 15%.
If current trends hold, Sanders stands to win a huge share — if not an outright majority — of California’s 415 delegates (that doesn’t include “superdelegates” who aren’t elected and whose influence over the nomination process is more limited).
Theoretically, Sanders is positioned to win ALL of California's 415 delegates.
ALL. OF. THEM.
Of course it's extremely unlikely that this would happen.
But if trends hold California is looking to end this race.