CNN Exit Poll Takeaways
Here's the exit poll, chock full of sundry demographic results:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire?xid=ec_btn_nh
You gotta scroll down and click on "Exit Polls."
Here's one positive development off the bat:
With all of Nashua in, Sanders has won the 7 largest cities in NH
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 12, 2020
Otherwise, off the top of my head coz I'm still groggy:
1. Bernie is having a problem reaching older bourgeois women, a very big and impactful voting bloc.
2. Never underestimate the power of mass media.
3. Most people love shiny new things.
4. The results of the primaries up the road are very uncertain. Lots depend on who drops out and who doesn't. This one ended up with a 1.5% pt. difference. Do the math.
Otherwise, lots to digest. Thoughts?
Comments
chuckles
oh, don't be such a boor
So after Klobuchar and Buttigieg drop out
. . . they will migrate en masse to Bloomberg?
There's no way Bernie can appeal to this group if the race evolves into a one-on-one vs Bloomberg?
Or if either or both Klobuchar and Buttigieg stay in the race past Super Tuesday?
We're at a point now where there's LESS THAN a month to get strategically situated to carry the struggle on after that date (March 3rd).
NH exit polls
Top lines
While turnout was similar to that of 2016, there was a significant difference in who showed up.
2016:
HRC 37.7%
Sanders 60.1%
other 2.2%
2020 (self-report as to 2016 voting)
HRC 50%
Sanders 30%
Neither 18%
2020 1st time voters: 13%; counted as 2016 neither?
So, half of Sanders 2016 voters simply vanished? How to explain this?
Do you have a link for this specific demographic?
I'm having difficulty figuring it out from what you've posted for 2020.
Of the people voting in 2020, 50% identified themselves as Hillary supporters in 2016?\
And 30% identified themselves as having been Bernie supporters.
If so, that is odd. Maybe it has something to do with independent voters? I noted up above that something like 45% of voters this time around identified as independents according to the CNN exit poll. I don't know how many independents voted in 2016 and if so, how many for Bernie. It gets complicated.
NH exit polls
The link in the essay and then scroll down and click on exist poll. The following may take you directly to the exit poll:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire?xid=ec_btn_nh
Of course that's weird. But I tried out every scenario I could think of that would make it true and not mean that 50% of Sanders 2016 voters disappeared.
Recap -- for historical comparison
2004:
Kerry 84
Dean 58
Clark 27
Edwards 26
Lieberman 19
Kucinich 3
other ?
Total 217 (approximate b/c full list not readily available)
2008:
HRC 112
Obama 105
Edwards 49
Rich/son 13
Kucinich 3
other 5
Total 288
2016:
Sanders 152
HRC 95
other 6
Total 253
2020
Sanders 76
Buttig 72
Klob 58
Warren 27
Biden 25
Steyer 11
Gabbard 10
Yang 8
other 7 (incl write-ins)
Total 294
On reduced turn-out in 2016, HRC was down by 17. We can assume that Sanders vote was a mix of his support and "not HRC," (another 18 fewer from 2018 bothered to do even that much), but was Sanders "not HRC" 50% his voters and also voters that didn't bother to vote in 2020? Something off with this, imho.
Turnout was actually
comparable to 2008 HRC v BHO, the record setting year. In actual numbers it might equal or exceed, but as there are more voters today, percentage wise it may be a little lower than 2008. Still pretty good.
Beyond that, turnout in primaries doesn't always predict turnout in the general. And in a contest with so many choices, sometimes people just shut down from feeling overwhelmed with too many choices.
That's what I experience anyway when I visit the cereal aisle in my local grocery store.
With the huge 2020 field
of candidates, I don't view and the voter increase from 253M to 294M as significant.
While not a strong factor, primary turnout and results have some predictive value for the general election. For example in NH:
2008 - Obama 54% (D - primary turnout 288M; R primary turnout235M )
2012 - Obama 52% (D primary n/a; R primary 248M)
2016 -HRC 47.6 (Trump 47.3 (D primary 253M; R primary 286)
This was one reason that NH remained on my watch throughout the 2016 general election; it really could have gone either way. A more robust predictor in 2016 was the Senate races. Unfortunately that factor in NH never moved from too close to call. FL and NC were easy. The polling on the WI Senate race were the worst.
We'll have to agree to
disagree. I don't think primary turnout, which is always a small fraction of the overall voter turnout, has much to say about fall general election TO.
And you want to correct your numbers to express them in thousands (k), not millions (M).
thousands
Old school -- and I'm old - M (Roman numeral) is thousand and MM is million (or thousand thousands). Plus: "Traditionally, M is used as the symbol for thousands and MM for millions in the business world, particularly in accounting." Finance and accounting were my professional fields. (I also still buy quarts and not liters of milk, measure things in inches, feet, and yards and not centimeters, etc, # instead of kilogram, and F instead of C.)
Presidential primary turnout in NH isn't a "small fraction" of the general election turnout. In 2016 it was 72.5% of the general election. In MA it was 56.8%. OTOH, general election turnout doesn't much matter in most states.
It would be interesting . . .
to compare the # of votes cast in the college towns in 2016 and 2020. NH put significant obstacles in the way of students who wanted to vote between 2016 & 2020.
This looks good for McCain
lol
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Hahaha!
I was waiting for the right moment to use a “good news for John McCain” and you found it!
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
After the yellin' an shoutin' died down
I thought Bernie showed some real class tweeting out to Yang thanking him for running and putting forth some good ideas.
And indicating he looked forward to working with him in the future.
This is what a leader looks like. Drawing people together, not driving them apart.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
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