FiveThirtyEight Predictions--3 Weeks Until First Contest

Well, a mere 3 weeks until Iowa, DNC establishment tool FiveThirtyEight has some primary/caucus predictions, and you simply *won't believe* what they are predicting!

They have forecast the result of every state and territory in the US of A, and the results are:

Sanders wins: New Hampshire, Vermont, California

Warren wins: Massachusetts

Biden wins: Every other of the 46 states, all 5 territories, Democrats Abroad, and Washington DC

Iowa, where the latest polls show Sanders ahead or at least even? Nope--that'll be Biden. States where Sanders won against Hillary in 2016 (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma, Alaska, Maine???)--nope all will go Biden. Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, North Dakota, and Montana, where Sanders also won in 2016? Those are so Biden states!

Hawaii, where Sanders also won in 2016, not to mention the home state of Tulsi--Biden will win that one for sure.

Did I mention Indiana, West Virginia, Utah, and Rhode Island where Sanders also won 2016? Forget about those--Biden will win 'em all!

American Samoa, where Tulsi is an actual Samoan? Biden, of course.

Virgin Islands--well . . . ummm, actually they probably will vote for Biden (*cough*).

I find it very improbable that Sanders wins California, the largest and most delegate-rich state in the Union, and that doesn't supercharge his campaign into additional wins. FiveThirtyEight does have Biden a very close second in the state--Sanders winning 133 delegates to Biden's 123.

Now, to be fair, they actually do *not* have Biden walking away with enough delegates to win the first round of voting at the convention. A candidate needs 1,990 delegates to win the first round, and FiveThirtyEight actually has Biden and Sanders close in most races, and shows Biden gaining only 1,503 delegates, with Sanders at 1,022 (Warren at 737 and Buttigieg at 506).

Let's see how FiveThirtyEight fares in 2020. I'm thinking they'll be in for some big surprises!

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Comments

Pricknick's picture

538 is bunk as are most all polls.
I believe in you. I believe in love.

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13 users have voted.

Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

mimi's picture

@Pricknick

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5 users have voted.

“Trauma is not what happens to you.
Trauma is what happens inside you,
as a result of what happens to you.”
— Dr. Gabor Maté

Pluto's Republic's picture

I reminded myself that 538 is merely aggregating poll results and collecting averages.

Their particular schtick is to give each poll a credibility weight, based on how representative the polled group is to the voting demographic, bias in the way the question is asked, the track record of the polster, and other variations that might affect the outcome.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination?

It worked out so well the last time. What could possible go wrong? Dirol

.
Meanwhile, the visual data for each state are great and easy to understand. It's a link you can keep handy to check out the continuously updated odds unitl election day. I intend to use it.
__________________________________
** I predict they tweak the numbers to match their own biases and to influence their audience. I shall read their predictions through that lens.

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14 users have voted.

Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

Cassiodorus's picture

@Pluto's Republic Actually predicting the election is completely beyond them. Joe Biden will win all these states despite being in initial-stage dementia, right.

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21 users have voted.

"Scab of a nation, driven insane" -- Frank Zappa

Pluto's Republic's picture

@Cassiodorus

...with Biden sweeping all the states.

Their real audience and fan base have always been the insider bubble folks. The only thing pre-Iowa polls measure is name recognition from the past. Predictably, the runoffs against Trump are as close to 50-50 as they can get them. They probably should have held off on their debut until reality started to peek through. Or maybe it is a psyop launch. All their projections end up with a brokered convention.

Biden is going to walk a weird path to the finish line. The candidates who haven't dropped out yet should probably stick around. Bloomberg is convinced he can buy the Presidency, and I hope he does. Americans need to see their payola democracy in action.

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8 users have voted.

Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Cassiodorus @Cassiodorus

attain those results...

by the way, there's a lot fewer videos about the 2016 primary election fraud now...you have to wade through acres of Trump Says Voter Fraud! videos to get to one about the *election* fraud (not voter fraud) in the Democratic primaries.

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11 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

The Nate's liver stuff is par for the course, but . . .

Yea. The banality of evil in those videos.

Anger. Sadness. Outrage. It's Deja Vu all over again.

I was gonna wait 'til all four early primaries and Super Tuesday played out, but I'll donate some more bucks to Bernie tonight during the debate.

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9 users have voted.
boriscleto's picture

@Wally

The Nate's liver stuff is par for the course, but . . .
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4 users have voted.

" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

Wally's picture

@boriscleto

Now that even Morning Joe is ridiculing so much as the suggestion that Bernie would say such a thing especially to Liz Warren ... and Al Sharpton agreed while Mika nods along:

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6 users have voted.
Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@boriscleto

Priceless.

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1 user has voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Situational Lefty's picture

Tulsi Gabbard will resign as co-chair of the Democratic Party to protest the actions of the DNC in favor of Hillary and against Bernie?

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12 users have voted.

The United States of America is the birthplace of Martin Luther King Jr., Harriet Tubman, Cesar Chavez and Emma Lazarus.

mimi's picture

@Situational Lefty

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4 users have voted.

“Trauma is not what happens to you.
Trauma is what happens inside you,
as a result of what happens to you.”
— Dr. Gabor Maté

Shahryar's picture

I don't think it'll be close. Warren was strong in mid-summer, not so much now.

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16 users have voted.
Hawkfish's picture

@Shahryar

I see lots of Bernie, moderate Warren and some Yang. I don’t think I’ve seen a single Biden sticker.

I also get lots of positive comments when I wear my Bernie shirt - usually from service industry workers, but sometimes just random people on the street.

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9 users have voted.

We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Residents of Nursing Homes? Or lunch time at Senior Centers?

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12 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

Who did they poll?

and their parents.

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16 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

Not the ones capable of telling the DNC to fuck off.

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9 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

They (Nate Silver) have jumped the shark.

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12 users have voted.
ovals49's picture

of this Nate Silver wishful thinking prediction will be evidence of the demise of democracy in the US more egregious Russian meddling in our elections.

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16 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

@ovals49

... Nate Silver wishful thinking prediction ...

Because nowadays much of neoliberal strategy is based on gaslighting voters with their wishful thinking poorly disguised as expert prognostication.

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3 users have voted.

I don't want Trump to win, but I do want the establishment Dems to lose due to their cheating and undemocratic practices in the primary. And I will do whatever I can to help that happen.

ggersh's picture

iow's he's a fact free stenographer

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13 users have voted.

“Awesome! I always wondered what it was like to live during the times of the Civil War, Spanish Flu, Great Depression, Civil Rights Movement, Watergate, & the Dust Bowl. Not all at once mind you, but ya know, ‘beggars/choosers” and all.”

for corruption, and it sold out to the DNC 10 milliseconds later.

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10 users have voted.

I don't want Trump to win, but I do want the establishment Dems to lose due to their cheating and undemocratic practices in the primary. And I will do whatever I can to help that happen.

RantingRooster's picture

in business? I mean, everybody, every pundit, major MSM talking head, Dem/DNC surrogate, pollster etc, blabber mouth moron, EVERYBODY (on the dem's side), said Trump couldn't win! But gee, if you are 100% wrong, and still keep your job, the "system" is truly fucked (rigged), no?

America seems to double down on being wrong, like 99.99% of the time.

Of course we have the Yang PAC Founder: The polls are wrong, Andrew Yang can win Iowa. (Really?, I seriously doubt it...)

#BernieOrBust2020

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4 users have voted.

"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Mark from Queens's picture

Give me the Chapo boys...

Here's Virgil Texas,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/05/09/our-fictiona...

He went from being a hostage of Russian security forces to predicting the exact results of the Iowa presidential caucuses, right down to the third- and fourth-place finishers. He called Bernie Sanders’s upset win in this past week’s Indiana primary, when his competitors all said Hillary Clinton had it locked down. He has correctly predicted the results of 77 out of 87 races in this year’s primaries, an 89 percent accuracy rating that equals that of FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver while tackling nearly twice as many contests.

And he’s a fictional character.

Carl “The Dig” Diggler is a parody of political pundits written by Felix Biederman and me for CAFE. Carl exists to satirize all that is vacuous, elitist and ridiculous about the media class. From his sycophantic love of candidates in uniform to his hatred of Bernie Bros, from his reverence for “the discourse” to his constant threats of suing the people who troll him on Twitter, Carl is predicated on being myopic, vain and — frankly — wrong.

But something funny happened along the way. Biederman and I, who are neither statisticians nor political scientists, started making educated guesses for our parody about the results of the primaries. And we were right. A lot.

We beat the hacks at their own game by predicting every Democratic winner on Super Tuesday. We told readers who would win in the unpredictable caucuses that FiveThirtyEight didn’t even try to forecast, such as those in Minnesota, Wyoming and even American Samoa. We called 19 out of the past 19 contests. FiveThirtyEight, whose model cannot work without polling, accurately predicted 13.

I'm so sick of that Neoliberal putz Nate Silver. He should have been exposed for all he is in 2016, just another Dem operative who gives the DNC what they need. He's far outlived any gravitas he had in 2008 and gotta be on the payroll, the scab.

Here's another guy who thinks so too:

Why FiveThirtyEight doesn’t beat prediction markets

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6 users have voted.

"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:

THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"

- Kurt Vonnegut