After March 22 races and revisions on earlier races, Hillary’s lead is now 294. There might be a couple more pickups in states where the multi-level county/state conventions are underway.

There are 1889 pledged delegates available as of tonight. The current deficit of 294 represents 15.56% of available delegates. For the three caucuses tomorrow, here are the targets:

My target for tomorrow is 91 delegates. That would result in a split of 91-51, and a net gain of 40 delegates, bringing the deficit close to 250.

Torilahure ran his delegate math model to estimate popular vote targets Bernie would need to achieve to reach my targets (last column above). If Bernie does hit 64.3% in Washington, we think he may have a chance to pick up 2 more, giving him 68 delegates there.

Demosten’s analysis has a tail scenario for an even bigger win in WA, partly based on extrapolating the very good results in ID and UT (but there are big IFs here, at multiple levels). A big thank you to both these amazing, generous Kossacks for sharing their detailed analysis on these races with me!

For the post March 22 primaries/caucuses held thus far (Abroad, AZ, UT, ID) my target was 90, and 538’s “tied nationally demographic model” had 80.5. With 85 delegates, Bernie split the difference, but we are 5 delegates behind the pace we need to be at to pass Hillary.

Okay, that’s it. Let’s GOTV and hit those targets!!!

It might put as big a smile on Bernie as #BirdieSanders did!