The only qualifying poll that matters....and why.

Today The MSM is claiming that Biden has a 2-1 lead over Sanders.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 2-to-1 lead nationally over the next closest Democratic presidential contender after the second round of debates, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. The new survey finds Biden with 34 percent support among Democrats, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 17 percent.

Which seems kind of, well, NOT FUCKING BELIEVABLE considering that a new survey has actual facts showing us that Sanders dominates the entire nation in donations:

That, folks, is the only qualifying poll that matters. And in every region where Bernie didn't come in first, he came in second. The polls the MSM is feeding the public? Well, we've heard that story before:

In the poll released April 30, Biden is shown with an impressive 24-point edge over Sanders, with 39% of voters saying they supported him, compared to just 15% for the Vermont senator. However, a Grit Post analysis of the results found that the poll largely excluded voters under the age of 50 in coming to that conclusion.

Also, the poll didn’t give respondents the option to offer their approval or disapproval of Sen. Sanders, even though the poll did ask respondents to give their approval or disapproval of lesser-known candidates like Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Massachusetts), Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), and Eric Swalwell (D-California), and even Miramar, Florida mayor Wayne Messam.

“We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people – or if you have never heard of them. How about Joe Biden?” the poll asked. “How about Pete Buttigieg? … How about Kirsten Gillibrand? … How about Tim Ryan? … How about Eric Swalwell? … How about Seth Moulton?”

The phrase “How about Bernie Sanders?” does not appear in the poll.

In the overall breakdown of how the CNN/SSRS poll arrived at the conclusion that Biden had 39% support to Sanders’ 15%, the age breakdown of respondents shows that the only data available was for ages 50 to 65+. The columns for ages 18-34 and 35-49 all read “N/A,” meaning there weren’t at least 125 people who were part of those age groups participating in the poll to provide an adequate enough representation of the greater U.S. population.

One has to ask oneself: should I trust a poll when the pollsters have already been caught lying or should I use my own two eyes and see that Biden is barely drawing 100 people to his rallies and Sanders is drawing 10,000? That Bidens donor base comes from DC and Bernie leads donors across the entire nation?

Why should I believe that despite every bit of evidence visible to my own two eyes that Biden is somehow magically ahead 2-1 because corporate owned polls say so? The same pollsters who had Hillary ahead of Trump by 18% btw and we saw how that turned out.

Those are called Suppression polls to make voters believe it's a waste of time to vote for who they want, thus suppressing the vote.

And people think Russia is manipulating our elections.

But to be fair, the polls are an archaic thing of the past and it's been nearly half a decade since this fact was exposed:

In an unprecedented internal report on its 2012 Romney blunder, Gallup says it made mistakes in its core samples, including its racial makeup and political ideology, as well as its overall methodology.

Gallup's audit, however, also says the entire industry is due for an overhaul, with some of the leading firms using analog, black-and-white methods in a digital, multicultural world. Case in point: the rise of the cell phone and the fall of public engagement in opinion surveys.

Besides not being tied to a fixed address – it's not unusual for owners to have a different area code than where they actually live, and the numbers usually aren't listed in the white pages – cell phones provide more control over its users' privacy than a landline. It's likely, analysts say, that the ability to screen or block incoming calls has accelerated the public's unwillingness to take part in what used to be considered a civic duty.

Another key factor is polling firms' methodologies, the "secret sauce" of the industry, Traugott says. Put simply, if you ask the right sampling of people the wrong thing – questioning disengaged Virginia residents in 2014, for example, whether they prefer Rep. Eric Cantor, a veteran politician with wide name recognition, or Dave Brat, his unknown but more radical challenger, without determining if they'll actually show up to vote – you'll get a bad result.

That was written in 2015. As we all know, in 2016 the polls said Hillary would win and come election day, the people polled didn't actually show up to vote.

Well, 100 people show up for Biden rallies. 10,000 show up for Sanders rallies. Who do you think is actually going to show up to vote?

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to know they are going to screw us 7 ways to Sunday.

Does anyone after 2016 have any doubt about this other than 3030 Joe?

The guy who is astounded that there was flack over ‘90%’ Dem approval rated Obama?

Clearly they are pulling numbers out of where the sun don’t shine.

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I just don't have any words that aren't obscenities to describe how angry I am after reading your essay.

The phrase “How about Bernie Sanders?” does not appear in the poll.

I'm lost for words.

Thank you for saying this as well:

And people think Russia is manipulating our elections.

We're so pure. And Russia is not. And Assad is a murderer. And we're not, even though we killed everyone in Mosul and everyone in Raqqa trying to eradicate ISIS. Bombs away.

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@Linda Wood

CNN uses cops to stage manage debate crowds.

Jordan gives the scoop on how CNN made it appear Warren had a mob of enthusiastic supporters at debate with Bernie not so much.

angry doesn't cover it.

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snoopydawg's picture

Or that he knows how to text? Or what the hell a text is? lol..

Of course the DNC is rigging the primary against Bernie. That he gets so many people who go to listen to him, but then decide not to bother to vote is ridiculous. This is what the kids said last time. "Large crowds don't mean that people automatically will vote for him."

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Umm I thought that there is a contractual responsibility to do things by the book?

This is a bannable comment on ToP. Of course it is. He didn't actually say that. He just said that they 'could' do it.

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There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.

karl pearson's picture

In the summer of 2015, Jeb Bush led in the polls for the 2016 Republican nomination for president and Trump was at 1%. When Republican primary voters were asked if they could see themselves supporting this candidate or not, here were the results:
Bush: 75% yes-22% no (+53) Trump 32% yes-66% no (-34)
Something sure happened on the way to the White House. The Democratic elites are really working overtime to prop up Jo Biden, just as the Republican elites did for Jeb Bush. After the 2016 presidential election, I don't think people are as influenced by poll results.

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@karl pearson polling methods/pollsters/polling companies have reached the same post mortem conclusions as the DNC. There was nothing wrong with them or their methods and they should obviously do exactly the same as last time.

I look at it as similar to the Nielsen ratings. Their old methods (which were rooted in the same era as political polling) weren’t working but they were actually losing them money. They couldn’t sell the results as the were missing a large number of viewers using methods from the 1950s. Losing money is why they changed.

The current polling methods isn’t costing them anything and has the added benefit of getting the results TPTB want. Has there been anywhere in the MSM looking at why the polls all incorrectly showed HER winning that don’t try to explain it away with a bs excuse?

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Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.

k9disc's picture

They are now holograms that shape the public mood. These polls are not interpreting reality they are creating it.

So the way to make money now is to skew the polls. Give the money men that answer that will allow them to shape the narrative.

This is another place where we, the Voting Public, should pull our heads out of our asses and see reality as the game it is. The goal is to elect corporate apparatchiks to de-Govern the United States.

When money and labor come back onshore it will be very important to have colonial era government protections, create the polls to shape a public opinion that fosters that. Biden is the Man. Give me polling reports that support the Man and we'll broadcast them over the loudspeaker.

This is a similar disconnect to the real goal of Politicians. GW Bush was HIGHLY successful in his presidency; he got everything he wanted save social security. Obama delivered EXACTLY what he was supposed to. The problem is we thought they were supposed to represent the American People. What were we thinking?

The job of the Corporate News is to sell human attention to corporate programming that is intended to SHAPE reality.

The job of politicians is to represent Big Corporate & the Oligarchs. They only serve humans to the gaping maw of the economy and help citizens by emasculating government protections.

The job of the military is to create, shape, and regulate markets and the marketplace for Big Corporate & the Oligarchs under the threat of mass violence and civil disintegration.

The job of polling companies is to create data for corporate media and politicians to use to craft a narrative that serves their corporate customers and sponsors.

FDA, USDA, FED, FCC, FEC, DoD, etc - ALL have their stated job that never seems to get done while any and all errors harm the People - not unlike Hillary's stellar coin flipping luck.

Believing the stated goals of these institutions is not only insane at this point in time, but it makes you insane. "Why!!!!?"

Answering,"Why?" is no problem at all when you realize that the stated job of our governing institutions is not the real job - not any more. Once you realize the real job, and there is a pattern within these real jobs; they don't call Big Corporate & the Oligarchs "job makers" for nothing.

Once you catch the pattern, the job descriptions nearly always match anticipated actions and ALWAYS serve the boss.

Pollsters are now about creating reality rather than reflecting it.

@karl pearson

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

an act of terrorism. Your “conspiracy theory” (that the polls are rigged and that we are lied to on a regular basis) is now considered a “threat to our democracy” (an act of terrorism).

So sayeth the FBI.(Groupspeak)

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“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024

k9disc's picture

@ovals49

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

the "super" delegates came in last election. If they can't push the voters to the chosen candidate the SD's will make sure the parties candidate is the last one standing. That's one thing I don't understand about ToP, the absolute loyalty to the party and their leaders. Donkey uber alles, even though the democratic party rejects democracy for its own members.

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"That, folks, is the only qualifying poll that matters." What poll, what link? Your title lacks any information to back up your premise.
Does anyone know of a poll that might truly reflect the voting public? That might be one that matters. Otherwise, it seems like click-bait to me.

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snoopydawg's picture

@mark.dierking

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-holds-two-to-one-lead-over...

Links here in the body of essays show up in blue.

BTW the top line of the comment section is for a header as described in the instructions so that it doesn't just come out as a bunch of numbers.

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There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.

Bernie leading

A general election Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading President Trump by 1 percentage point in a hypothetical 2020 head-to-head, within the survey's margin of error.

In the hypothetical match-up, Sanders had support from 46 percent of likely voters while Trump had support from 45 percent, according to the Rasmussen poll. In a previous poll from the conservative-leaning Rasmussen in April, Trump was leading Sanders, 47 percent to 44 percent.

In the latest match-up, Sanders would have 75 percent of the Democratic vote, up one point from the April survey, while Trump would bring in 80 percent of the Republican vote, down from 83 percent in the past poll.

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yellopig's picture

The MSM isn't quite lying.

The new survey finds Biden with 34 percent support among Democrats, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 17 percent.

Since the 2016 election, the Democratic Party lost a lot of supporters. (Me, for one!) So the poll is showing 34% for Biden, among the small group of people still willing to call themselves Democrats.

Remember, statistics are right next to lies. If you choose your sample small enough, you can demonstrate anything.

YMMV, of course…

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“We may not be able to change the system, but we can make the system irrelevant in our lives and in the lives of those around us.”—John Beckett