The Real Reason the Dem Establishment wants Bernie to get out of the race
People love narratives. And the media love narratives. So lets compare two possible narratives going into the next Dem primary (either 2020 if HRC loses to Trump or 2024 if she becomes the president (keep in mind that these are political narratives, they are not necessarily true)
Narrative 1:
Bernie drops out of the race today after failing to win Arizona and gives an impassioned speech imploring his followers to vote for HRC in the primaries moving forward. Given HRC’s current lead in elected delegates of 58% to 42%, we could realistically expect her to further expand that margin in the back half of the primary to maybe 25% of elected delegates, throw in the superdelegates (15% of total delegates) and she ends up winning the nomination by about 40%.
In this scenario, the establishment will have the narrative that a progressive candidate is simply not viable in the next primary. And they will be able to point to the 40 pt blowout that Bernie suffered at the hands of HRC as evidence for why this narrative is self-evident. And sadly, a great many people will believe the narrative simply because they believe the authority figures that tell it. In a similar way that Bernie has been crushed by the false narrative that he is “radical” when his positions are right smack dab in the center of the 1960’s\70’s Dem party platform (his policy positions are also supported by majorities when looking at the polling on Medicare for all, raising taxes on .1%, eliminating student debt servitude, reigning in Wall st, and investing in infrastructure). He’s also been hurt by the false narrative that HRC is more electable when no objective measures support that story. But again, truth is not the purpose of political narratives, politics is the purpose. So even though the narrative of progressive Dem candidates not being credible would be objectively false, the story would be easy to tell, and easy to believe if HRC wins the nomination by 40 pts. And this is exactly the story that Corporate Dem establishment would like to tell.
Now narrative 2:
Bernie stays in the race, fighting tooth and nail all the way til the convention and ends up losing the elected delegate count by 5%, throw in a more split superdelegate count (maybe 80-20) and HRC would end up winning the nomination by just 15%. In this scenario, the narrative would favor our progressive side and it would go a little something like this… HRC was the most well known Dem candidate in decades, had the most universal support of the establishment of any recent Dem candidate, had the largest and best funded organization of any Dem primary candidate. And even with all those hugely powerful elements in her corner, she still only managed to beat by 5 pts a largely unknown, self described socialist, old white Jew from uber-liberal snowy white Vermont.
In my mind, the political narrative possibilities of the two above scenarios are extremely powerful and important moving forward. And scenario 2 would be just as extremely unwelcome by the corporate Dem shills that support the status quo and HRC, as it would be a boon to progressives moving forward. And I think this is the primary reason why TPTB want Bernie to drop out of the race right now, its in their best interest interest.
Comments
Bernie isn't dropping out
(1) Bernie isn't dropping out, but if he did nobody would have to vote for Hillary in the remaining primaries and caucuses.
(2) In 2008 I recall Hillary campaigned all the way to Puerto Rico(!) in June. If she can go all the way, Bernie can too. I still think he can win. The results of the FBI e-mail investigation will be released in May.
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
That would be another good reason would it not?
"results of the FBI e-mail investigations will be released in May" If that is true, heaven forbid if we would have a fallback candidate in place-a viable one- instead of pushing through with "Her Royal Highness."
T & R at TOP
Nice work in the thread too. Let's hope there's no Bojo.
We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.
Yeah, that comment thread for
Yeah, that comment thread for this at TOP is a complete crap-storm.
Injustice is relatively easy to bear; what stings is justice. -H. L. Mencken
A country without a memory is a country of madmen.-George Santayana
An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailments of all republics. --Plutarch
From here out: TOP = Youtube
As far as the comment sections go. Except imagine the Youtube comment sections only allowed ONE group of people to be complete assholes.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
comment sections
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, dmw, but I think you just insulted the commenters at YT!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Wait, A Messenger?
Well, what's the proper thing to do with messengers? Thinking...
Oh Right! Thank you for your information, and head down to the kitchen for something to eat, you must be starving and exhausted.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
I remember when Bush "won" in 2000
The political narrative at the time was that he was going to have to govern from "the middle" because of the way he "won".
Obviously that isn't what happened. He governed like he had a mandate.
Reason why we will NEVER hear about
this election except in the same terms used to talk about McGovern or Dean IF Bernie is not the nominee.
What will get played over and over? The BLM speech crash. "Crazy" Bernie Supporters. Anything but the issues. It will be about the narrative the MSM wants us to remember.
The older I get, the less my memory of history matches the official story.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
McGovern? they always forget Mondale
Nixon 520 electoral votes, McGovern 17. Reagan 525, Mondale 13.
So the moral could be "don't nominate a boring candidate" but, of course, that doesn't fit what "they" want. Alternatives to Mondale were Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson, both of whom were superior on issues.
Bernie is not borinig
he is entertaining and has a good sense of humor. The truth is not boring. On the other had Hillary the Hun is not boring either. She's scary, mean as hell, and a proud bad ass. Interesting as Trump and Killary seem to be two sides of the same coin. A scary hateful insane maniac clown Hairball vs. A scary, bad ass Mad Bomber. We came we saw we killed and it's worth it.
Yeah...NO
Narrative #3
TPTB KNOW the doo-doo from the FBI investigation is going to hit the fan before the convention, and the sooner Bernie drops out, the fewer of his delegates they'll have to contend with when Joe Biden is parachuted in to save the day.
It's a big club...and you ain't in it!
This is a really
good diary. Thanks Auburn Parks. Your analysis is right on. #2 is about another way of moving it forward even if the Democratic machine wins by their obvious fix. The movement Bernie is engendering is empowering to people who see and know what's going on. It's not going to go away as things are not going to get better under the anti-democratic duopoly offering puppet heads of a donkey or an elephant. The powerful interests the owners of the place have gone too far and more and more people are aware of what's going down.
If a Clinton Administration
is a disaster (war in the Middle East, financial sector running amuck, increased unemployment thanks to TPP and other trade deals, etc.), I could see a primary challenge from the Left in 2020, the way Carter faced Ted Kennedy in 1980. And with lessons learned from this election combined with continued decline of traditional media (there's thought that Twitch TV might spin out a News channel on their streaming site, which would make independent broadcasts an actual reality), progressives could actually win.
I have chimed in a lot about this...I don't think she would
run for a second term. It is---for her, about her--- getting to be the first female Prez and into the history books. Also, if she did not run for a second-term she would not have to defend ANYTHING she did during her Administration in the first four years. After having run this country into the ground she, Bill, and Kissinger would be sunning themselves on a beach somewhere with a batch of margaritas....that is my prediction.
I think you're right
except I can't see Hillary retiring EVER. She and Bill are power mad. Period. She will be giving speeches and keeping her money network in shape for her continuing control of the Democratic (ha) Party and Chelsea's future run.
Twain Disciple
Great essay. It rings true to me.
Kudos!
" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "
Yup
Also, if she loses to Trump, in scenario #1 they get to call everybody who didn't vote for her stupid or crazy or lazy, whereas with scenario #2 they get to target Sanders supporters for refusing to vote for a candidate they don't trust. So what you need there is lots and lots of Sanders supporters, as this position becomes weaker and weaker the more support Sanders gets, and more illustrative of the general failure of the Democratic Party to get seriously behind a candidate who isn't a conservative. It was one thing to scapegoat Nader, but quite another to do it to a much more popular candidate with a much stronger background.
It's also really important to get rid of that meme about Sanders being a socialist. He hasn't proposed nationalizing anything, he's politically a Democrat. The Democrats aren't what they used to be and people are figuring it out. They're pissed off about the economy, they increasingly understand the problem with NAFTA. They are sick of permanent war, though unfortunately there is still a lot of xenophobia. I'm increasingly starting to see how people think Trump could beat Clinton, so I can't see the point of voting for her under any circumstances. Vote for the candidate who best represents your interests, and it ain't Trump either.
Stay on track. Stay in lane. Don't throw rocks.
Looking at some actual FDR quotes
many of them could have come straight from a Sanders speech.
Statement on the National Industrial Recovery Act, June 1933
Message to Congress on Tax Revision, June 1935
How far has the Democratic Party fallen from the days of FDR?
my friend Jason from Cali just puts down Bernie
and as a dedicated US communist, he is saying that "...he[Bernie Sanders] is just another right wing Gompersite labor fakir."
OK but you can't run any further to the left as Bernie is going, and still expect to get in with a nomination at the Dem convention. And championing min. wage @ $15/hr., that's not labort fakery IMHO. No one else is going there, nada, zilch, no one.
Seriously, the number of people who have no clue to tell the difference between Democratic Socialism, Socialism,
or a living, breathing Communist Party (like in Cuba, which has real, democratic elections known as the National Assembly of People's Power -- I simply refer you to the Canadian Arnold August for all those well-researched details, mp3s, books, YT videos, ect) -- the amount of ignorance in the US about relatively simple political concepts, well, to me it's so depressing and then, in the case closer to home, to ignore 50 years of state-sponsored terrorism against the Republic of Cuba (bio-terrorism, hotel bombs in tourist areas, you count them, it's all documented), and to not think that it would have adverse consequences for a country's right to have an open and free society, personally it almost maddening and unbearable. I almost want to give up on the masses sometimes.
And when good honest people of Bernie's calibre, when someone like him comes along, to see all the hostility and attacks within his own Democratic Party itself, you have no choice but to plan for long term strategies, because we the people can't win when the game is rigged this way. It's bad enough just to deal with the stupidity and lack of an informed public.
Bernie Didn't Drop Out
I'd like to remind everyone that the liberal candidate Obama turned hard right immediately after the 2008 electoral victory party in Grant Park, when he announced that he was retaining certain Bush advisors and Cabinet members. I have no reason to doubt that Hillary will basically do the same. She will pose as liberal as she dares long enough to beat Drumpf or any of the other GOP dolts who escapes the Cleveland Convention with the nomination, for she will need our votes. Then once it's hers, she reverts to form, praises TPP, and rules as a Goldwater Girl should - from the far right.
Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.