once upon a time we gave Peace a Chance

(Pershing II missiles being transported away from a US base in Heilbronn)

Will John Bolton rescind it?  By all accounts he was the maniac who’s convinced his Boss Tweet to pull out of the INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty).  Bolton will be in Moscow today and tomorrow and will discuss (cough) the issue with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, National Security Advisor Nikolay Patrushev,  FM Sergei Lavrov, and possibly Vladamir Putin on Tuesday.

The INF was negotiated between Reagan and Gorbachev on December 8 1987, ratified by Congress in May 1988, and came into force on June 1, 1988.  Hence, the above photo.

But in his Oct. 22  ‘Trump says US will withdraw from Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty’, Alex Lantier writes that:

“Admiral Harry Harris, who recently stepped down as commander of the US Pacific Fleet to become the US Ambassador to South Korea, became an aggressive proponent of renegotiating or scrapping the INF treaty. Last year, Harris said that he considered arms control “problematic,” as the INF treaty limits “our ability to counter Chinese and other countries’ cruise missiles, land-based missiles.”

Testifying to the US Senate this March, Harris made clear that scrapping the INF treaty was critical to trying to re-establish full US military dominance of the Pacific Ocean. “We are at a disadvantage with regard to China today in the sense that China has ground-based ballistic missiles that threaten our basing in the western Pacific and our ships,” he said. “We have no ground-based capability that can threaten China because of, among other things, our rigid adherence … to the INF treaty.”

He references Obama’s ‘Pivot to China’ military doctrine having caused China to build intermediate-range missiles to hit aircraft carriers in the South China Sea where ‘maneuvers’ are afoot nearly constantly.  He mentions Obomba’s pledging a cool trillion bucks to modernize the US nuclear arsenal, and so on.

Trump has trumpeted that Russia has been abrogating the treaty for a long time, and wonders on Twitter why Obomba hadn’t pulled out of the INF when he was prez, as has China had been building similar missiles.

“Trump’s attempt to blame Moscow and Beijing for his decision is a transparent political fraud. The US repudiation of nuclear arms control treaties is part of a longstanding, aggressive foreign policy aiming to exploit US military supremacy in the aftermath of the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union to counterbalance the effects of its accelerating economic decline in world affairs. The 2001 repudiation of the ABM treaty was part of the Bush administration’s turn to war, including the illegal invasions and occupations of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, to dominate the Eurasian landmass.”

That pullout resulted in the creation of the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) which the Wiki notes had its  “its origins in the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) which was established in 1983 by Ronald Reagan”  (Star Wars)

Now according to RT today, these are The Rules:

“For nearly two decades the two states have taken turns claiming the other is violating the treaty, which bars both of them from producing all land-based ballistic and cruise missiles – not just nuclear-tipped ones – with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km. The Pentagon – citing its classified intelligence –claims that Russia has developed an intermediate range missile for the Iskander-M launcher, the existence of which Moscow has never acknowledged. In turn, Russia insists that the launchers that form the US missile defense shield in eastern Europe are themselves capable of firing intermediate range missiles, and should be destroyed under the terms of the agreement.”

“Appointed only in March, Bolton has become arguably the most influential US foreign policy architect, and is a long-time critic of arms control treaties. According to senior staff sources who spoke to the Guardian and the Washington Post last week, he personally persuaded Trump to quit INF. Stateside reports indicate that despite Trump’s customarily hazy pronouncements, Bolton will definitively signal US intentions to leave – a six-month notice is required to leave the indefinite-term agreement – during the Russian visit.

Trump has also been quoted as having said: “We are going to terminate the agreement and then we are going to develop the weapons” unless Russia and China agree to a new deal” at a campaign stop in Elko, Nevada, and “Unless Russia comes to us and China comes to us and they all come to us and they say, ‘Let’s all of us get smart and let’s none of us develop those weapons,’” Trump said, “but if Russia’s doing it and if China’s doing it and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s unacceptable. So we have a tremendous amount of money to play with our military.”

Adding a hella lot of irony and abject hypocrisy into the mix, Trump’s Nuclear Posture Review had plans for the same missiles…and a lot more nukes (not that the HuffPo exposé doesn’t include plenty of bullshit).

Ah well, here it is: breaking:

‘Trump threatens to build up US nuclear arsenal until Russia, China ‘come to their senses’, via RT

““Russia has not adhered to the agreement,” neither in form or in spirit, Trump told reporters outside the White House on Monday, before departing for a campaign rally in Texas.  The US has “more money than anyone else by far,” Trump added, implying an arms race wouldn’t come as a burden. “You can’t play that game on me.”

The treaty, which went into effect in June 1988, was a major achievement of Cold War detente and helped defuse nuclear fears in Europe. If Trump goes ahead and withdraws from the INF, that would leave the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) as the last obstacle to uncontrolled nuclear proliferation. The treaty will expire in 2021, and Washington has not yet decided on renewing it, Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton said during his visit to Moscow.”

When else was Peace given a chance recently?  When Herr Trump wanted rapprochement with North Korea by way of denuclearization, of course.  Who tried hardest to derail that?  Elected Democrats, of course, plus whichever version of the deep state one imagines.  So the sanctions are still on because: not fast enough progress?  Never mind that Moon Jae-in was elected on the basis of his platform for possible reunification with North Korea, and desiring that the US declare the war on DRPK over.

But of course there was the D team squawking about the #Treason Summit at which Putin and Boss Tweet met to defuse tensions because: #RussiaGate.  The summit prompted loads of gay porn (at the link), remember?

Ha, I’d included ‘‘Detente Bad, Cold War Good’ former UK ambassador Craig Murray, July 17’, and a host of other similar essays plus an interview with Prof. Stephen Cohen (‘Putin apologist’).  But this took the cake:

“Mega-Lulz for Bernie Sanders who’d Tweeted: “Yesterday was a good day for Putin and the oligarchs in Russia. But it was a bad day for people in the United States and all over the world who believe in democracy and who are trying to understand what world our idiot president lives in.”  Gawd bless him, The Bern knows who he is, and he ain’t ashamed to show it.  Nossir.  Not being in Putin’s Pocket takes precedence over deconflicting nuclear war, discussing nuclear weapons reductions…

What will be the next moves on the Devil’s Chessboard, and will they be in concert with Trump, his generals, and Wall Street’s weapons manufacturers?  Perpetual War fills their coffers; a multi-polar world will not be permitted by Amerika, even as many posit Amerikan Hegemony is in its death throes, thus, at its most dangerous.

Please feel free to toss in any of the things I’ve omitted in (by now) lethargy and nausea.  I expect we’ll hear more on Joltin’ Bolton’s trip to Moscow soon.

@AmbJohnBolton Oct 11  “On October 20th I’ll be travelling to Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia to meet with my counterparts and other senior officials to advance American interests on a range of security issues.”

Just in three hours ago: ‘EU warns Trump of nuclear arms race risk after INF withdrawal move’ The Guardian; Some European leaders oppose US withdrawal as John Bolton visits Moscow to discuss treaty

Oh, lord luv a duck:

“The decision to withdraw from the INF has been widely criticised as a mistake by US nuclear experts, who say it will benefit Russia more than the US, arguing that Russia will now be unshackled in its development of short- and medium-range ground-launched nuclear missiles, while the US is unlikely to find allies willing to host such missiles on their soil.

They say the same goes for the Pacific, where China’s development of medium-range missiles has been cited as one justification for freeing the US from the INF’s constraints.”

Sorry if this diary ain’t ready for Prime Time’ I don’t have time to make it so...

(cross-posted from Café Babylon)

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arendt's picture

“Mega-Lulz for Bernie Sanders who’d Tweeted: “Yesterday was a good day for Putin and the oligarchs in Russia. But it was a bad day for people in the United States and all over the world who believe in democracy and who are trying to understand what world our idiot president lives in.” Gawd bless him, The Bern knows who he is, and he ain’t ashamed to show it. Nossir. Not being in Putin’s Pocket takes precedence over deconflicting nuclear war, discussing nuclear weapons reductions…

Just another fucking warmonger. Another sheepdog.

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WaterLily's picture

@arendt WTELF.

(EL = "ever-loving").

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wendy davis's picture

@WaterLily

WTELF? do i need to hit the urban dictionary?

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@wendy davis

while not directed to me...

WTELF? do i need to hit the urban dictionary?

What The Ever-Loving Fuck.

Wink

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

wendy davis's picture

@thanatokephaloides

i appreciate your decoding, deadus headus. saved me a trip to the urban dictionary decoder ring.

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wendy davis's picture

@arendt

make bit of sport about DSA ocasio 2018 (or whatever) ruining the socialist brand, but you may get boot out of this one. i'd had to go back a few blogging word documents to get it again. how often have we hear deaner stryker, whazzisnane zizek solemnly proclaim: "socialism has come to america" featuring this one? i'll embed it as it's too precious to link to so you can make it stand alone to grasp it; it's that hilarious:

thanks for reading and commenting, arendt.

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Big Al's picture

or imperialism. That's what it's come down to with the deficit soon to reach one trillion and the national debt topping 21 trillion. Signs indicate each is going to get significantly worse while Trump and the duopoly, actually led by the democratic party, are strengthening their positions that the imperialism budget must continue to rise. Something's got to give.

This goes directly to this next election showing that the democrats overall strategy of attacking Trump and the republicans positions on social and domestic programs is nothing but bullshit and it doesn't matter which party controls the house.

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wendy davis's picture

@Big Al

what's left of the social safety net, plus this: "actually led by the democratic party, are strengthening their positions that the imperialism budget must continue to rise"

there is also the danger that the current iteration of the cold war against china ("our competitors" could become hot war. hot war with russia...i don't think so, but iran, vis a vis israel and wahabbist saudi arabia/qatar? who can say?

sorry if i'm a bit incoherent; i should turn my laptop off and eat bonbons and breathe some cbd cannabis; we'll see.if i don't get back, let santee sioux AIM founder john trudell be tonight's closing lullaby (not his mix tape). damn he got it right all the time:

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igvhvsj7oKg]

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Big Al's picture

@wendy davis @wendy davis [video:https://youtu.be/pafY6sZt0FE]

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wendy davis's picture

@Big Al

thanks. as per your thesis, this a.m. we have at wsws:

Republicans and Democrats prepare bipartisan agenda of social cuts and warpatrick martin

it'll happen as night follows day, but he hasn't made the case for his title. he even notes that the Ds are outraged!!! or close.

Trump’s threat to tear up nuclear pact with Russia met with alarm in Europe, silence from Democrats; The sole criticism from the Democratic Party is that Trump has failed to articulate a clear strategy for confrontation between the world’s two major nuclear powers’, bill van auken

...and of course two US battleships sailing thru the straits of taiwan. i checked jane's defense weekly, US navy, tra la la...but there used to be a go-to site for US military misadventures. any clues? veterans today is like all media: all khashoggi, alla time. posturing, red lines, rat lines...what.a.circus.

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@wendy davis

Project on Government Oversight, also known as, the Center for Defense Information, CDI, is a watchdog group of long standing. My laptop's operating system is too out of date to see their website now, but I receive a newsletter from them through the mail.

http://pogobuild.pub30.convio.net/blog/2018/08/pogo-identifies-defense-c...

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wendy davis's picture

@Linda Wood

estimable oversight content and crime-busting, but i was looking for a couple with almost daily 'defense' maneuvers sorts. see where all the branches of the US military are, what's new in weaponry, what the creepy names of the Ops are like: 'operation trident' in the arctic circle, as the battles for supremacy are heating up anew there. russia and amerika, of course.

for the south china sea and taiwan maneuvers i tried southcom, us navy, marines, on twitter, for instance. but they're all virtue signaling Delivering Help operations just now.

but thanks, i'll try to remember POGO ('we have met the enemy...and he is US'), wasn't it?

oh, and for ALL: nothing new at wikileaks about the lawsuit assange and his attorneys have brought again the ecuadorian FM valencia yet. can't think it'll go well, but i'd love to be wrong.

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divineorder's picture

The war profiteers are prevailing 9ver peace, seemingly leaving Europe in the lurch.

Or maybe they are all about
creating new markets.

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

wendy davis's picture

@divineorder

from the FT, yes? pretty grisly comments under the FT tweet, though. but pulling out of the INF would obviously lead to an increase in the nuclear arms race. hasn't mutti merkel given mixed signals on increasing germany's defense buildup, though? first not wanting to be dependent on NATO, next month, something different.

but the military alliances and trade alliances seem to be shifting sands, often almost too pragmatic/realpolitik, less....what's that other thing no one speaks to? ethical? i saw a headline yesterday close to: 'sanctions would cause KSA toward increased trade with russia and china'. when i see putin hug thug narendra modi i want to toss my cookies. 'pragmatism'.

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wendy davis's picture

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that his meeting with US President Donald Trump in Helsinki was tough, but useful, which is why Moscow is surprised at Washington’s recent unfriendly steps toward Russia.

Professor Warns New 'Nuclear Iron Curtain' May Be Created if INF Treaty Scrapped’, also at sputnik

“US plans to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) have been slammed by its European allies. Meanwhile, Moscow has warned that it would do what it takes to preserve strategic parity. Non-proliferation specialist Gotz Neuneck told Sputnik why the US and Russia could easily resolve their differences, but probably won't.”

'Harmful for Europe': Macron Slams Trump’s Plan to Quit INF Treaty With Russia, France joins Germany in speaking out against Trump tearing up the historic Reagan-Gorbachev deal from 1987, russia insider

odd sort of aggregator site, but this is what i'd meant by putin's (and others') pragmatism, if t. durden's piece is correct.

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wendy davis's picture

US sticking to INF Treaty withdrawal, to be filed in due course – Bolton after Moscow visit’ RT, 23 Oct, 2018 17:42

bluster, bellicosity, extortion?

"Washington is determined to withdraw from the INF arms control treaty no matter what, but has not done so yet, US national security adviser John Bolton said after meetings with the Russian leadership in Moscow.

“There’s a new strategic reality out there,” Bolton told reporters, describing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty as a “bilateral treaty in a multipolar ballistic missile world,” that does not apply to countries like China, Iran or North Korea.

The US estimates that anywhere from a third to a half of all Chinese missile capability would be in violation of the INF, were Beijing a party to the treaty, Bolton added.

He argued that, with Russia in violation and other countries not bound by the INF, only the US remains limited by the treaty.

“On the conceptual possibility on universalizing the treaty, that’s something we’ve thought of as far back as 2004,” Bolton said. There were attempts to do so, but “they all failed.”

Bolton was scheduled to fly to Moscow on September 11, 2001, to give notice that the US was withdrawing from the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty, he reminded reporters. At the time, he joked, all the media would call it “the cornerstone of international strategic stability.” Yet there was no collapse of international stability, he argued.

“It was not true then, and it will not be true now, with this treaty,” he said.

He maintained that Russia was in violation of the treaty going back to missile tests in 2008, and that the US has struggled to resolve the issue since 2013, without success. Moscow has rejected US accusations, saying instead that US missile defense systems deployed in Poland and Romania were in violation. Those systems would’ve been banned under the ABM treaty.

Commenting on a statement by the government in Beijing that China wants the US to remain in the INF, Bolton said, “If I were living in Beijing, I would probably want the same thing. But I’m not.”

Earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked Bolton if the eagle on the US seal had eaten all the olives from the branches it was holding in one talon, and the arrows it was holding in the other were all that was left.

“I didn’t bring any more olives,” Bolton replied." #Asshole

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wendy davis's picture

Bonanza For Weapons Industry: Trump Withdraws From Reagan/Gorbachev Nuke Treaty’, strategic-culture.org

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=93&v=-VOXKmnZ-lo]

US Withdrawal from INF Treaty: Implications for Asia Pacific’, Arkady savitsky, 23.10.2018; strategic-culture.org

money quote, so to speak:

“Moreover, with the arms race escalating in the Asia Pacific region, the US could involve itself in some lucrative deals selling conventional intermediate-range missile systems to the countries in that area, such as Japan. A conventional version of some of these weapons will be in high demand, bringing in substantial profits and spurring US economic growth.
So, the US is encouraging an arms race in the Asia Pacific region. It has adopted a policy of encirclement with its potential enemies in the crosshairs of its intermediate-range weapons.

It will have the option of destroying key sites with conventional warheads. This policy will inevitably force Russia and China closer together. The militarization of the region will further accelerate. Those targeted by the US will be incentivized to develop weapons systems that can reach the continental US. No one will win and everyone will lose. There is still time to reverse the US decision to leave the INF Treaty.”

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wendy davis's picture

Trump's missile treaty withdrawal: “Prepare for nuclear war”, andre damon, wsws.org, 24 October 2018

including:

"In the foreign policy press and the publications of think tanks, however, nuclear war is a preeminent issue. Even before the White House’s announcement, Foreign Affairs dedicated its current issue to a discussion of nuclear war, with its cover featuring a missile launch.

The issue features a column by Elbridge A. Colby, one of the principal authors of the National Defense Strategy published by the Pentagon in January, which proclaimed the effective end of the “war on terror” and the beginning of “great-power competition.”

Colby, the former deputy assistant secretary for strategy and force development, titled his article, “If You Want Peace, Prepare for Nuclear War.” He writes: “The risks of nuclear brinkmanship may be enormous, but so is the payoff from gaining a nuclear advantage over an opponent.”

“Any future confrontation with Russia or China could go nuclear,” Colby warns. “In a harder-fought, more uncertain struggle, each combatant may be tempted to reach for the nuclear saber to up the ante and test the other side’s resolve, or even just to keep fighting.”

my, how times have changed...

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHylQRVN2Qs]

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