As someone pointed out to me yesterday, some of my diaries are very short and more like comments- this I will admit is true. I work about 10 to 12 hours a day and visit our site during the workday; therefore, I do not have the time to write well-composed thesis (like many of yours). Moreover, in my role as a project manager, I have been conditioned to write something quick and to the point (ignore the details or the back-story). Therefore, based on this positive feedback, this is my attempt at a truly comprehensive diary.

My background- 48 years old, white middle class working professional, father of 3 sons (18,20,22) born and raised in Indiana (in the freaking deep red part of the state). My grandfather was the president of Indianapolis steel union- so I inherited his liberal philosophy.

I have a master’s degree, ran for public office (county and state) twice and did not win- received the highest portion of democratic votes in both races but was beaten by republican straight ticketing voting. Additionally, I managed the primary congressional campaign for the democratic opponent to the terrible Mike Pence. I was not the campaign manager for the general election because the candidate was not following my advice and I told him he would lose if we did not change course and message but he did not and the rest is history.

My family and I just recently moved to Western Washington to escape the crazy environment of truly conservative state of Indiana to live with other like-minded individuals. The reason I share this background with you is to demonstrate my experience and how this knowledge is used is to shape the following diary.

First, I am still rooting and supporting Bernie, but to be real his chances for the nomination are very slim, but in this campaign season crazy things have happened. Therefore, this diary assumes Hillary Clinton is the democrat nominee. Moreover, this diary assumes that Donald Trump is the republican nominee.

Keep in mind; I predict this will be one of the dirtiest, nastiest and most brutal presidential campaigns in history. However, I believe Hillary will not win the presidency due to the following factors and they are listed in no particular order:

1) “It is the economy stupid”- people in the middle and lower class need help and better jobs. Clinton will embrace Obama’s polices and the economy while Trump will talk about the evils of the wealthy, trade and carry a populous message that will encourage many blue collar and even some white collar voters to vote for him. Please note for me the economy has improved and has gotten better, but there are many that are struggling and need better opportunities.

2) Fear- as stated by someone on this site, this is a big motivator and Trump is the king of Fear. I know the democrats will play this card (Supreme Court, conservative boogieman). However, Trump understands the low information voters (this is a fact for most of American citizens) and because of his reality TV background he will have the upper hand in the Fear factor- “rioting in the streets”, suppression of his voters 1st and 2nd amendment rights, they are against us.

3) Celebrity factor- any time a major TV personality runs for office, the people love it- they associate the TV persona with the real person. Look at Arnold Schwarzenegger (freaking Republican Governor in a deep blue state), Jesse the body Ventura (Independent Governor of a liberal state), and of course the most famous one of all Ronald Reagan (President). Please note our society made the no talent and no value Kardashians famous, so why not elect a reality TV host as president- think about it.

4) Campaigner- Hillary is a terrible campaigner- her team, strategy, and tactics are horrible. For example, they are taking their foot of the gas after Tuesday results. If I would in charge, keep the campaign going strong and finish Bernie off. This partly explains why Obama (1 first term senator from Illinois) and Sanders (an independent “socialist” from a small state) gave her tough times when in both cases she was the clear and easy favorite and should have won. While Trump is a great campaigner- spends very little money, dominates all media, destroys his opponents, and defies all expectations. Remember in July we were all laughing at him, but he is a master campaigner- I give him credit (reluctantly).

5) Clinton staff is stale and non-creativity- they have built an insulated glass wall around their campaign and candidate. They congratulate themselves on hollow victories or blame others for their own problems. Experience is a good thing, but to be a healthy organization you need different peoples’ points of views, values and experiences. Trump team may have a little bit of this same problem, but he thinks outside the box so his ability would negate this potential liability.

6) Old school tactics and approach- okay I am old school and enjoy applying prior approaches and solutions to problems; however, you need new tactics for this new century, i.e. fundraising online, using social media to manage, control and convey your message. Trump is great at balancing and applying new (twitter) and existing tactics. Being a business leader, he can easily adapt and change- Clinton does not adhere to any new style or approach- I would equate her approach to pounding a square peg into a round hole. Think about your experience with government services and business services, which was is easily to work with and always evolving (business- just like Trump).

7) Propaganda/media- Trump is great at this factor, he controls and manipulates the media. He stays on message and can overcome any problem or issue. Watch his interviews, he redirects and controls the discussion. He sucks the oxygen out of the room. Clinton is a gaffe machine- look at the recent statements- Nancy Reagan funeral, no one killed in Libya, health care involvement by Bernie. Clinton will not be able to get a word in edgewise and land any major punches. I think back to Bush senior and Dukakis.

8) Leader vs manager- Clinton is a manager, she understands policy and is a wonk about very specific procedural information. If you need a lawyer or engineer, she is your person. However, she is not a visionary (leader) person, i.e., no ability to explain or articulate a vision; she does not inspire her voters. Think about FDR, Kennedy, Bill Clinton, or Reagan. Voters want and desire a vision. To date Hillary has said she knows how to get practical things done, that will not inspire people to vote for her- look at her “rallies”, biggest one to date maybe several hundred people.

9) No empathy- Clinton is not warm or empathetic to people; she does not understand maybe even care about them. Even though Trump is a jerk, he can talk to people, this week he brought a stranger out of the crowd on stage with him during one of his rallies. I just do not see her having the capability to care about a person and use an empathetic approach to campaign. She uses scripts to talk and does not the ability to easily to talk off the cuff. She is the type of person that approaches you if she needs or wants something- you know the type of people who I am talking about.

10) Demographics- Clinton strength of her voter groups does not play well in the General Election (she will not carry one state in the south and in the blue states she does not need these voters). She needs the Obama coalition to turn out big time to win, but she does not focus on improving upon this weakness. Moreover, she needs to work on smoothing the relationships with the progressive wing of the party and young people. However, since she will be the party nominee and Trump is her opponent in her mind these people will easily vote for her, she feels she does not need to earn their vote.

11) Voter repression (vote ID and voter rolls) - republicans control several states that are needed to win the GE and they have worked very hard to suppress the vote, i.e. - Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, VA.

12) Fatigue- Clinton and Bush, we have been there and done that, people do not want another Clinton or Bush in the White House. I have heard this sentiment numerous times from many different people that I have spoken with regarding the election.

13) Establishment- this is the year of the non-establishment candidate, the voters are tired of only the wealthy making all the money and controlling our political parties. Guess what Clinton is the Queen of the establishment. Trump is a member of the establishment; however, he acknowledges and embraces it. Moreover, he is running as the outsider and cannot be control by them- that is crazy but true.

14) Flip flopper- Trump is a jerk and has crazy ideas, but he embraces them. Clinton cannot be pinned down because she has been on both sides of every major campaign issue.

15) Political correct- Clinton uses polls, consultants, and scripted messages to convey her message, Trump just lets it fly and guess what, people think that is fresh and an ideal communication approach. They understand what they get with Trump, Clinton who really knows.

16) Opponents’ strength- Clinton does not prepare for and plan to take on an opponent especially one she considers weak- looking at her campaign staff and DNC statements this week they want Trump and they think he will be easy to beat. Okay folks you never ever under estimate an opponent- and Clinton’s arrogant attitude will hurt her campaign big time. Trump loves the underdog role, and he knows Clinton will not take him seriously until it is too late (late September or early October- it will be panic mode for Clinton campaign).

17) Us vs them- everyone (major companies, media, heck even foreign leaders/ countries) is against Trump and Clinton embraces the oligarchy. People want change and we do not like being told what to do. Trump will rally and get people to the voting booth.

18) Brutal tactics- never bring a knife to a gunfight. Clinton is a tough person and has managed many scandals, accusations and campaigns, but Trump is the master of these types of barroom tactics. He has said outrageous things and they always end up helping him. Besides, he will destroy her with rumors and attacks (i.e. little Rubio).

19) Baggage- Clinton has more than Trump- they are both flawed candidates, but in my opinion, she has more in her background to cover up, hide, or expose.
With all the above factors in play for the general election, I believe Trump will win this election, it will be very tight and it will be a once in a lifetime event (even more drama then Gore vs Bush).

With the above factors in mind, I predict Trump wins 273 to 265
1) Trump carries all red states and WI, Iowa, Ohio (I believe Kasich will be his VP), NH, MO and Florida (Scott delivers the state)
2) Clinton carries 265 all state blue and wins VA, CO, NM, VA (this one will be very close and Trump could take it).

I hope you enjoyed the diary, and any feedback comments and opinions are welcomed.