Syrian civil war enters it's final stage

The war in Syria is no longer in the headlines, but that is about to change.
In recent months the Syrian government has taken back all of southern and central Syria from the rebels.
In the east, the Kurdish-led SDF has entered into talks for reconciliation with Damascus. It's widely viewed that the Kurds and Damascus will eventually find common ground.

That leaves just one last break-away region, but it's a big exception.
syria.jpg

The Syrian army dropped leaflets over Idlib province on Thursday, urging people in part of the last big swathe of territory still held by rebels to agree to a return of state rule, telling them the seven year war was nearing its end.

Idlib province has been pivotal in this war.
It's fall to al-Qaeda in 2015 caused Russia to enter the war on the side of Damascus.
Every time the Syrian government took back a region - Aleppo, Douma, etc. - the rebels were allowed to evacuate in order to spare the lives of civilians. Those rebels were bused to Idlib. This has changed the character of the province.

An estimated 2.5 to 3.3 million people – at least 1.2 million of whom are internally displaced – are currently crammed into this largely rural region, which only constitutes 3 to 4 percent of Syria. Before 2011, Idlib was home to no more than 750,000 inhabitants. Syria’s northwest, long a hotbed of armed resistance and the heartland of al-Qaeda-linked operations, has become a real-life dumping ground for defeated opposition fighters and their families from elsewhere in the country. At least 70,000 armed men are currently in Idlib and its surrounding areas, according to one estimate, a sizable minority of whom belong to groups formerly or still linked to al-Qaeda.

70,000 heavily armed, fanatical jihadists is nothing to take lightly. The jihadists, now going under the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, rejected Turkey's demand to disband.
Eventually Damascus will launch an assault on Idlib, and that will cause a humanitarian nightmare.

Having already taken in more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees since 2011, Turkey has firmly shut its border to any more people seeking to flee, so the prospect of conflict in Idlib is truly a nightmare scenario. All other events in Syria would look like drops in the ocean.

HTS is only one power player in Idlib. The other is Turkey, and that's where things get complicated.

As a principal guarantor of the northwestern de-escalation zone, Turkey’s military has also established 12 “observation posts” ringing in opposition territory from western Aleppo south through Idlib, into northern Hama, and back up through western Idlib’s border with Latakia. These posts began as minor lookout points, but have grown to resemble small forward-operating bases, ringed by barbed wire and increasingly by reinforced concrete walls, and housing fleets of armored vehicles and other heavy weaponry.

It's unclear how a regime assault on Idlib can be accomplished without Turkey being involved. To make it even more complicated, HTS and Turkey aren't exactly allies anymore. Recently Turkey has facilitated the assassination of troublesome jihadists, including members of HTS.
Turkey has even used an alarming term.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Idlib a “red line” and vowed to defend any attempt to reclaim the province from Turkey’s sphere of influence, raising the risk of a showdown between his country, which is a NATO ally, and Syria, Russia and Iran.

Turkey's annexation of Idlib is not something that Damascus will simply allow.
All of this is happening in the backdrop of a near complete breakdown of relations between Ankara and Washington.

The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Turkey's interior and justice ministers. Erdogan threatened retaliation and got the support of most of the Turkish opposition. On Wednesday, Stars and Stripes reported that a group of pro-government lawyers in Turkey have filed charges against several U.S. officers at the Incirlik Air Base, accusing them too of ties to terrorist groups. They are demanding all flights leaving the base be temporarily suspended and a search warrant be executed.
...Earlier this year, he threatened American troops with an "Ottoman slap" if the U.S. tried to block Turkey's military incursion into northwest Syria.

Basically there is no telling how this will play out.

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Wink's picture

keep track of who's who
in the M.E. even with a score card?
Especially as "our Government" (joke)
supports both sides, and doesn't give a fuck about either.
Or which side "wins."
Which is why I gave up years ago.
Becuz it isn't about "winning." It's about Perpetual War. And how can it be perpetual if somebody wins? So... Kurds, Turds... I couldn't tell you one from another, and don't much care who "wins."
Becuz it truly does not matter.
The only thing that matters is ending it. By bringing home the Troops™. Or even better yet, no newbs signing up to fight the war(s).
Funny that O'bummer never ended Gitmo or the war(s). Or not. But certainly telling.
Kurds? Turds? Who cares? Becuz there's always somebody's ass to kick. And Americans more than willing to look the other way - just where the Oligarchs and M.I.C. want us looking. War? What war? Didn't we kill O'Sama??

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

dance you monster's picture

@Wink

This attitude right here.

Look, I get it that you don't know who's who, and don't much care, but none of the participants in the factionalism of the Middle East is excrement.

These are peoples whose lands and cultures were divided cavalierly by the Brits and the U.S. a century ago -- after other dominant outsiders (French, Germans, Turks themselves, Mongol hordes, Byzantines, Romans, Persians, etc.) had done the same thing for many centuries before that. If we want to consider a people, a culture or other self-identified grouping, as having any legitimacy anywhere, we need to let all such groupings enjoy the respect we want for ours.

What's at stake in Syria affects not names, not caricatures, not smears, but people, everyday people who want some little measure of peace to raise their families and survive to old age when they can smile at their grandchildren. We can decry the powers that are exploiting the divisions for their own selfish motives without disrespecting the powerless. We'd be less than human ourselves if we didn't.

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dance you monster's picture

@dance you monster

The people who regard those whos as individuals can tell them apart, every time.

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Wink's picture

sides as often as
@dance you monster
the seasons. I lost track a decade ago.
But 'we' won't ever get out becuz... PNAC and perpetual war.
It's all kabuki theater. And while real lives with real names fear for their lives on a nearly weekly basis... if anybody really cared there might just be an anti-war movement.
But we don't becuz... none of our lives or our family's lives or our family's family lives are in danger. I personally don't know one person in the military, haven't bumped into a G.I. Joe in months. So there won't be an anti-war movement any time soon. Becuz nobody can figure out who the "bad guys" are in the M.E. (becuz "our government" supports all sides) and becuz of that we just don't give a fuck. For a very long time now. And the ONLY people I have found that give any kind of fuck are people over 40 who had a glimpse, at least, of how America used to be. The under 40 crowd just considers this b.s. normal, becuz it's the only "reality" they have known. And, whenever I hear something or see a headline about the M.E. my eyes roll to the back of my head, look to another story with a "whatevs... " The PNAC crowd has every intention of "conquering" the M.E. Then China, Russia... and very likely will with that $700 Billion payroll. And I'm s'posed to worry about somebody that this week calls themselves the Kurds. At our monthly MeetUp last night we talked about compost toilets. And bubble wrap. None of us believing the Dims are going to beat dRump. Well, one believer. (not me).

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

They play a big part in the west's outrage. (bless their hearts) /s

To bad this outrage doesn't apply to Yemen.

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QMS's picture

@humphrey are protecting the withdrawal of White Helmets anyway? Could it be they are not 'as portrayed' in the Hollywood version after all? But let's not consider propaganda as playing a part in these conflicts. National security takes precedence, donchya know. /s

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question everything

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

but your warontherocks link conveniently neglects to mention that Russian humantarian corridors have been established and are helping alleviate the refugee issue.

Same thing every time Assad goes on the offensive: a lot of crocodile tears from Empire leaning analysts about the poor Syrian refugees along with a complete lack of admission that those refugees would not be in the shape they are were it not for the actions of the militants the analysts support.

The Idlib operation has been a long time coming, giving the Russians plenty of time to plan for the minimization of civilian casualties and putting into practice a lot of hard won knowledge from similar battles in other parts of Syria (see Palestinian Camp, Daraa area).

You're right that nobody knows what will happen in Idlib, but given the Russian and Syrian track record of minimization and reconciliation in this war, I'm inclined not to believe a civilian bloodbath is the likely outcome.

Now, if the Americans were planning the operation....

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

It worked the first time why not try an encore.

https://southfront.org/bana-2-0-how-militants-exploit-children-in-syria-...

Militant groups operating in the Syrian province of Idlib are actively preparing media infrastructure to carry out a propaganda campaign against the Damascus government and inject fake news fueling the MSM narrative about the “bloody Assad regime”.

While there is little new in this effort, an interesting thing is that Idlib militants appear to be determined to repeat the “little girl blogger” story, which was already used in 2016, during the finalphase of the battle for Aleppo city, a part of which was occupied by militant groups.

Bana
Then, pro-militant propagandists were using account @AlabedBana [created on September 24, 2016] as an important part of their campaign against the Syrian government and in support of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (now Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra – the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda), Nour al-Din al-Zinki (became widely known after filming and posting a boy beheading video) and other “moderate opposition” groups.

The account, which was allegeldy belonging to a 7-yo girl, Bana al-Abed, was used the #HolocaustAleppo, #MassacreInAleppo, #StopAleppoMassacre hashtags and called on the international community to stop the “Assad regime” from killing peaceful people – i.e. members of the aforementioned terrorist groups.

Hala
In 2017, the history seems to repeat itself in the province of Idlib, a part of which is still in the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies. In July [considering the first post, on July 28], an account of another little girl blogger appeared in Twitter. This time the account is allegedly belonging to 6-yo “Hala” from the city of Idlib [controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham].

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Turkey is not in a strong position right now.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/08/how-turkeys-currency-crisis-came-to...

https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1027924007352459264?s=21

Without Turkish support, Idlib will fall quick.

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EdMass's picture

Turkey and Erdogan with their society and currency collapsing will find it hard to justify to its people that we're gonna expend all that money to maintain jihadist in a tiny corner of Syria instead of giving you bread and rice.

It's over. Except for the slaughter of probably millions.

A total waste of a decade and millions of lives lost an immigrants overwhelming Lebanon, Jordan and the EU.

The Kurds have real leverage at this point. Hope they use it with Assad.

Hey! Redline BHO!

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