The future if Hillary wins
The nomination is far from over, but as a thought experiment, I thought it useful to think about a Clinton victory in November. So, in no particular order:
1. The House will remain GOP, and probably the Senate as well
If the candidates are Clinton and Trump, this will be a pretty depressed electorate. Neither is liked: and their primary political strategy will be to destroy each other. These are not campaigns likely to generate significant turnout - and without that turnout winning the House is impossible, and the Senate difficult. It is possible that Trump is such a disaster that a landslide results, but the idea that this is going to lead to a large scale down ticket disaster strikes me as wishful thinking.
The problem is Clinton has little positive agenda.
2. We will become more involved in the Middle East
This is pretty clear from the Atlantic article. Clinton is much more of an interventionist that Obama.
3. Stalemate will likely make it impossible to get anything done around the edges.
A Democratic Senate will help - but that Senate includes blue dog Democrats like Manchin from West Virginia. In any event we will see a continuation of budget negotiations.
4. A recession will likely occur
This isn't a prediction based on policy change so much as probability. The current expansion, such that it is, has gone on longer one would expect. With little fiscal stimulus likely, a recession before the 2018 elections becomes a probability.
5. The GOP control of states and the House will continue
See number 4. The forces driving Trump are going to continue: wage growth and economic security are simply insufficient to address the increasing anger among working Americans.
6. The logic for a budget deal will become increasingly difficult to resist.
Absent health care reform, the fiscal picture will look increasingly bleak. With Clinton unlikely to touch defense for fear of accused of being weak, the discussion will shift to entitlements. The GOP will pressure her to accept a "grand bargian". If the GOP holds the House in '18, my guess is that there will be one. Look for a chained CPI and an increase in the retirement age to be on the table.
7. Minority Rights, Civil Rights will be protected
The only good news here. The replacement of Scalia will cement Gay Marriage, will protect abortion rights, and allow the overturning of Citizens United. Not small accomplishments.
Comments
What a Hillary presidency might look like
Syria here we come....
Come on all you big strong men, Auntie Hill needs your help...
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W7-ngmO_p8]
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
If you don't use your weapons platform, they go stale
And if you don't keep building the most expensive kinds, this unfortunate peace may breakout.
nuclear war round the corner
this might be the last chance for a peaceful direction, we'll lose it if bernie goes down. no one will realize the consequences until the atomic radiation lingers on, like it is already going on in iraq with the depleted uranium ammo, and we're already partially acclimated to plutonium in the pacific from fukushima. no one outside of west coast thinks it's a big deal. nuclear energy is cheap, oil is cheap, ect.
it is not a scare tactic to imagine this scenario. it's the logical outcome of the direction where we may be heading very soon.
Not very confident of HRC's abilities, are we?
Yikes!!
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
I am for one, confident of her war mongering
not really convinced she can put peace on the agenda, she's sold out for way too long, at least since the Iraq war vote. Peace doesn't pay enough private ROI as you could get in the war business. OTOH In the public sector, a hospital is a better long term investment than a modern battle tank, although basic costs to build either one are appox. the same.
Minority and civil rights don't cost Wall Street anything
Therefore there's no downside to "protecting" them. (But don't get overconfident about abortion rights, since Her Royal Highness has expressed a willingness to weaken them still further, as long as "the health of the mother" isn't affected.)
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Cost of "Doing Business"
Seeing as they can pass off the violations of both minority and civil rights to "Independent Contractors", there's no real reason to waste time fighting.
Besides, by paying lip service they totally sew up the vote of ethnic group leaders, so Win, Win, Win...
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
I feel the same
Minority rights not only don't cost anything, but it also doesn't threaten the power of the ruling elite.
So it's not a coincidence that this is the only areas our society has been making progress in recent decades.
Except
Establishment Dems have been paying lip service to civil rights for a long time. Why do you think BLM arose? It wasn't just because of one unarmed man getting shot by the police. That was only the catalyst. Dem policies, especially Clinton policies, such as mass incarceration, the Drug War, etc. conrtibuted a lot to what we are seeing now in the New Civil Rights Movement.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Privatised prisons require
a continuing stream of "clients"; hence tough drug laws, 3 strikes policies. and criminalising adolescent and even childish behaviour via the "school-to-prison pipeline" (STPP?)
With Hillary as Prez, with $$ support from the private prison "industry". I shouldn't expect this to change.
As well, I understand that prisoners are expected to work for their "room and board". Is this really so? What then differs the USA prison system from, say, that of the, well, DPRK?
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
True
But if you are gay, or you want to overturn Citizen's United, this is not trivial.
I think for upscale Democrats social issues are defining and Bernie populism is unsettling.
Window dressing social issues, that is.
Window dressing social issues, that is. Anything that mere lip service overlaid on existing policy would cover.
Real social issues, on the other hand, like the restoration of the ability of a single high school graduate to win all the bread necessary for a family of four on one reasonable job, that kind of social issues send the limousiners screaming into the night!
And frankly, I really don't understand that. Most upscalers' income depends on folks throughout the economic spectrum having discretionary cash to spend. So, under Bernie's program, they, too, would be better off. (Customers, remember those?) So I really don't understand why anyone would work for candidates who promise "more of the same" at best.
??
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
And the Republicans will wheel in the giant shoe tree
with dozens of shoes hanging precariously by a frayed lace and then they will begin shaking the tree violently and shoes will begin dropping everywhere.
I don't see how that doesn't happen.
" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "
Luckily, it's all just a thought experiment
and Clinton can never be our POTUS. Bernie still has a very real chance, and Trump'll trounce Clinton.
Bernie v. Trump is THE conversation our nation needs to have. When the people choose, that's our zeitgeist, love it or leave it.
There's always Canada. I could go back to Newfoundland.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I'm deathly allergic to cod.
Corner Brook is quite nice ... nt
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Canada won't take me
because I'm retired. Canada wants people who will work, especially as entrepreneurs starting their own business, or in service trades.
⍢
Clinton costs us redistricting
We have to stop Trump, he really is that bad. But that loses us the states in 2020, if not the presidency too.
This really has the makings of a shit storm cluster f*ck. Either Sanders gets the nomination or we have to drag Clinton to legislate on his issues. Even just getting the Public Option of medicare on the exchange (even if the premium is cost +5% or something) - that would be enough to mobilise enough progressives in 2018 and beyond.
If Clinton appoints another Goldman Sachs cabinet we are all, well and truly fucked.
There is no alternative to
a political revolution. It sounds a but strange, but it really is true.
And something the Clinton people just don't get.
None indeed.
Time to swell the ranks of the progressive caucus in congress.
No doubt in my mind
that she will appoint another GS cabinet. She owes them millions of $$$ worth of favors. It's odd to me that the Hillbots (I feel free to call them that on here) don't let this bother them. That and her willingness to compromise on abortion, SS, healthcare, etc., etc. etc. WTF is going on with these people. I was just checking out OPOLs new diary on DKos (sure miss being able to recommend) and the usual DHonigs, etc., were on there changing the topic, hijacking the diary, refusing to address any actual issues, etc. I don't understand these people, not at all.
Comments on OPOL's DK Diary
Wow, if he's not careful OPOL will be here and not on DKOS. The Hillbot Patrol is out in full force and talking about how he can post this, is this still allowed, what can we do about this, etc. At this point I hope Markos reaps what he has sown.
I just hope the Hillary Battalion doesn't start showing up over here and, instead, volunteers for the actual army where they can enjoy fighting her wars for her.
Wow. The stunning failure to hear
demonstrated in those comments.
It's almost as if the Clinton supporters are ok with the millennial vote sitting home because they'll have a good reason to blame them for losing? Instead of trying to figure out how to get them on board and excited by fighting for some of the issues that are important to them.
a couple of good new diaries there
by Bernie supporters if you're curious, but I wouldn't even look at the comments if you value your health.
If your computer is okay with parsing 1000 comments.
MASS SOUTHPAW
Democrats, We Hardly Knew Ye
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/17/1497378/-Oh-Democrats-We-Hardl...
DoctorBeast68
Five Reasons to be Depressed about Hillary Clinton
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/03/16/1502144/-Five-Reasons-to-be-Dep...
But I've been there, not here, so for all I know they have both been posted here as well.
Now that I think about it, everyone here is probably all too aware already of the content of those diaries, so... er, never mind.
⍢
I know this sounds CT ish but I think they
really and truly are brainwashed.
That, and they've totally misappropriated "liberal" and "progressive." They REALLY and TRULY believe they are progressives. That's what keeps getting me intro trouble, I keep saying to them, no, you CANNOT support Clinton and still get to call yourself "progressive." But they do it anyway.
They are victims of the mass media, advertising and consumerism. They worship pundits like Rachel Maddow even though Maddow is clearly a corporate puppet.
Then there are those who actually KNOW what they are supporting. Those are the traitors, their betrayal to the principles of the Democratic Party is their goal. They are the Republicans of yesteryear.
They are brainwashed and/or they simply do. not. care. They are not "liberals," they have no compassion, no sense of honor, and they feel that dirty money is great and lies are just what politicians do.
They are morally corrupt and some are not even aware of it.
None of those Clinton people at DKOS deserve your pity or your contempt.
I hope that explains it.
They have rested on their
They have rested on their laurels believing that as supporters of those willing to at least talk about things like gun control and abortion rights they have the moral high ground. Bernie had demonstrated that their high ground is a foothill to actual progressive thinking. And they're mighty pissed.
Stockholm Syndrome
GS cabinet costs us 2018
Just as Obama's GS cabinet cost us 2010.
I'm glad you brought up redistricting
Because that's the elephant in the room no one is talking about, and will probably get you banned from the Orange Place if you bring it up there. We know what happens to us in midterms. With another President Clinton, 2018 has the makings of a bloodbath that will make 2010 or 2014 look like photo finishes. We'll be lucky to hold a dozen state legislatures after 2018, and when we lose the White House in 2020, we'll end up with even fewer.
And then after the census, the Republicans will gerrymander us out of existence. And all this for what? Another neoliberal incrementalist? Can someone explain how this is worth it?
"The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." --Noam Chomsky
We're overdue for a recession
The NBER says Bush's Great Recession ended in June 2009. Recessions come around every 5 years on average - we're overdue. The next President can pretty much count on a recession. How bad will it be, and will there be a better government response this time?
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
The initial phases of an oncoming recession/depression
would be the perfect time for Bernie to have the bully pulpit and the media to push the Republicans into a corner if they don't support reforming the system. Hillary will just try to bail out the banks again because she and all her friends are surrounded by metaphorical and financial moats with drawbridges.
With our luck
The recession will hit right after Clinton gets the nomination but well before the general election.
All the economic underpinnings have been crashing
for some time, according to the economics websites (the real economy, that is, not Wall Street gambling or Fed free money for the already rich). Check out naked capitalism.com or zerohedge.com (sort out the rabid opinions from the latter).
Think depression, more than just recession this time. Unemployment and inflation are calculated differently now than they used to be. They look better than the old ones would have.
We've never gotten out of the Recession of 2008.
To my way of thinking, a recession isn't over until labor has regained all it lost, i.e., all jobs restored at pre-recession compensation levels.
I don't give a flying fuck at a rolling doughnut what major capital might think. Wall Street and all its friends can kiss my ass.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
I was thinking the same thing ...
A recession or some foreign military crisis.
I started reading Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" back in ... I don't know, 2008 or 2009 maybe? As soon as I realized that's what's going on HERE AND NOW, I stopped reading it. It was like a horror novel that was so scary, I couldn't sleep in the same room as the book.
I feel the same way about Shock Doctrine
once you see it, you can't unsee it. When I give book gifts, sometimes I give The Shock Doctrine and A People's History of the United States together. That's pretty much all you need to know about how things work.
" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "
That's the truth
n/t
It will be Benghazi on
It will be Benghazi on steroids for Hillary.
Go Bernie !!
Clinton destroys the Democratic Party
Investigations and endless Impeachment hearings and then trial. Only this it time won't be for a blow job and lying about it, it will be for substantial illegal activities. The Republicans missed last time, they won't repeat that mistake.
Can you even imagine what the interim 2018 elections will do to the Democratic Party?
With Clinton's election, the party stays as it is, decayed, decrepit and and unattractive to young voters. There will still be the Neocon/Neolibs, Wall Street/MIC Cabinet. It would be the final gasp of Bill Clinton's strategy to be POTUS and the hell with the future of the Democratic Party. It will certainly bring a massive revolt in 2020, but will there be any party left?
Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.
At this point, I don't think I care what happens to "the party"
My only thought, at this moment, is fuck the party.
Destroys == opening for progressives!
I disagree about Citizen's United
being overturned on Hillary's watch. She benefits far too much from that system (as do all the DLC/Third Way thugs) and I cannot see her appointing anyone she knows in advance would vote to overturn it.
Call me cynical.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
OK, you are cynical...
...that you are also absolutely correct is superfluous.
cynical about Clinton in this regard is also absolutely correct!
Whatever she says or doesn't say on the subject is made moot by how much butter has been applied to her chosen side of her giant slice of The Bread.
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth.-Lucy Parsons
I'd call you "realistic"
No cynical!
The assumption that any Supreme Court
nominee by either of the establishment candidates would do anything to erode the power of the establishment parties assumes good will on the part of those doing the nominating.
In other words, I don't trust her to do the right thing, on ANYTHING, if she doesn't get her nose wet from it.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
The future if Hillary wins....
will be bad. However I think this will be the Democratic Party's Alamo, which is long overdue.
Progressive to the bone.
fladem, would you provide
fladem, would you provide the link for the Atlantic article you mentioned under #2? Clinton's promotion of military intervention is the foremost reason I oppose her candidacy. Be assure there are many, many other reason, but that is primary to me.
~ Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle. ~
Articles
This blames Obama from failing to act in Syria:
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/hillary-clinton...
This covers Obama's view of Syria, and how mad he was at Clinton
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/4...
Crash II
The fact that the behavior that caused the last crash has not been reigned in and regulated and the criminals that caused it have not had to face prosecution and are still in full control means we will have another crash of greater magnitude caused by the same bunch. I don't know that American democracy could survive that. We might see a demagogue worse then Trump arise from the ensuing disaster and the Democrats will be left holding the bag this time.
Oddly enough, I think Crash II would be better
managed by tRump. Clinton will just let Wall Street walk away with our Treasury again.
Not sure what Trump would do, to be honest, but we already know what it'll look like under Clinton. Another reason not to vote for her under any circumstance.
The economy will be much,
The economy will be much, much worse under Trump. There is not a government agency that can deport 11 million people, so he will turn to his white supremacist base. We will see local vigilante's hunting down undocumented workers across the country. Mass demonstartions will arise to defend people from the Trump brown shirts. The violence of the Trump rallies will spill into the streets, led by armed White Nationalists who will see the opportunity to start the race war they have been dreaming about. Agriculture, meat packing and dozens of industries dependent on migrant labor will collapse.
Hillary is a Wall Street shill. Trump is something much, much worse and much more evil.
At least one will inspire OPEN resistance.
The other will tell the folks on her side to shut up, relax and think of America while her pals take what they want from us.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
That's probably what they
That's probably what they said when Hitler took power. How did that work out for the left in Germany?
If we're going with that...
The big industrialists were all FOR Hitler being installed because it was believe he would shut down the Communist party. He was their weapon.
Not a choice between Hitler and Not Hitler this election. Choice is between Mussolini's. One of whom will pretend she likes us, and we better give Wall Street what they want, or we get the Hose again.
Fuck that, Bernie, or Jill.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
Not even close. I'm Hispanic
Not even close. I'm Hispanic as is my family and most of my friends and daughters friends. Most of whom are immigrants and some are undocumented. If Trump wins my wife and daughter are for the first time concerned about their physical safety. They are freaking out at what they are seeing locally and in school. Don't tell me there is some kind of equivilance between Hillary and Trump. Maybe in some rhetorical abstract world, not in the real world.
So the solution is?
Vote Hillary or the Hispanics get it?
That's hostage taking right there. Same crap they've been pulling for years. Vote for us or the Supreme Court gets it. Vote for us or the African Americans get it. Vote for us or the LGBT folks get it.
It's a shallow, manipulative tactic that divides us. The Hairball's playing the same game, only he's playing bad cop.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
Well as long as the gun is
Well as long as the gun is pointed at your head.
Don't count on Hillary being nice
She was all in favor of shipping those unaccompanied children back to "send a message." Some of those kids have been killed already, soon after they got back.