Democratic voters who 'Feel The Bern' turnout; otherwise they don't

primaryTurnout.png
All the way back to last summer there was talk about how Sanders fans were so much more enthusiastic. Now that we are well into the primaries, this has gone from an observation to a fact.

So far in the Democratic primary, there's only one set of circumstances in which the party is producing strong voter turnout: When Bernie Sanders wins a state, tons of voters are showing up.
In Colorado, Kansas and Maine, Democrats have actually surpassed the turnout of the 2008 primary contests, while the caucuses in Minnesota and Nebraska only narrowly missed. Sanders won all five states.
...
In every state that Hillary Clinton has won -- which is most states -- the party is seeing a significant decline in voter turnout from the 2008 election. Half as many Texas Democrats came out to vote this year than in 2008. In South Carolina, turnout was down by a third. Virginia? Down by one-fifth.

This trend can be seen on a micro-level in Michigan, where Bernie engineered his most dramatic upset.

Consider the voter turnout shattered records when more than 2.5 million people cast ballots. Sanders won big just about everywhere, except in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties. And while a big showing in Wayne County and its city of Detroit often spells victories for many candidates, the turnout was 25% in Detroit and 31% in Wayne County, while the statewide total was closer to 40%.

It must be acknowledged that heavy turnout in primaries does not mean heavy turnout for the general election.
Nevertheless, primary turn out is still a good measurement of enthusiasm.

But it's still a meaningful way to gauge the excitement among a party's base. Ask anyone at the Democratic National Committee whether they'd like to see good turnout numbers in the primary, and they'll tell you that, yes, of course they would.

As for electability in the general election, it's time to look at demographics in a more realistic sense. The NY Times hints at it.

And despite the seemingly inexorable demographic rise of Hispanic voters, the American electorate is still overwhelmingly white. Some analysts said they believed Mr. Trump could even exceed Mitt Romney’s 59 percent share of the white vote — winning over disaffected Republicans and even working-class Democratic men, and putting Democratic-leaning swing states like Michigan, and potentially Pennsylvania, in play...

The Democrats can't afford to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania. Not when the South is a solid Republican lock. Ohio has a smaller percentage of black voters than Michigan.
Someone needs to be able to sell to working-class whites in swing state.

The New Hampshire primary provided some encouragement for Democrats. Among white voters without a college degree, Mr. Sanders won more votes than Mr. Trump....In another contest, the Massachusetts primary on Super Tuesday, Mr. Sanders won 36 percent of that group’s votes, in contrast to 27 percent for Mr. Trump. Not far behind, Mrs. Clinton received 24 percent of that vote.

Democrats are going to need the base to turn out because independent voters are a hopeless cause for the Clinton campaign. They flat out do not like her.

Between March 2015 and December, Clinton's net favorability -- those viewing her favorably minus those viewing her unfavorably -- sank from plus-3 among all voters to negative-8, an 11-point change. But among independents, that figure went from +4 to -27, a swing of 31 points.

As an example, Sanders won Michigan almost exclusively because of the independent vote.

YouGov expected Sanders to beat Clinton by 38 percentage points among independent voters participating in the open Democratic primary. He won those voters by 43 percentage points. But no one expected independents to make up 27 percent of voters; YouGov expected about 12 percent.

All general elections are "open primaries".

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Nice post. I am getting to be optimistic about the Ohio, Missouri, and Illinois primaries. Hopefully Bernie can keep it close in N.C. and Florida. Hopefully, HRC's Reagan AIDS mistake will help.

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"The working class mind is strange and unpredictable." -- Ty Lookwell

Borkrom's picture

I thought this was an interesting piece about voter information and predictions

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

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if Michigan was a one-off or not.
Ohio has a very similar economy and demographics to Michigan (although slightly whiter), so that the real test.
Since Bernie took Kansas and Nebraska, then Missouri should also be in play.

Florida is a lost cause, but it won't matter if Bernie can take the Rust Belt.

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detroitmechworks's picture

She and her surrogates are in full damage control mode, because they know how badly she fucked up.

This is a Let them Eat Cake Moment, today.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

SnappleBC's picture

How'd she "lose a lot of votes"?

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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

detroitmechworks's picture

Essay on the front page about it.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

SnappleBC's picture

OK, normally I try not to make tempests in a teapot over all these "insults" (that each team accuses the other of making), but in this case, doesn't this go well beyond "insult"? I'm the first to admit that I don't have the whole timeline in my head but didn't Reagan basically do nothing about AIDS for at least 3 or 4 years? If so, isn't this kind of like her snuggling up to Kissinger from an LGBT standpoint?

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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

detroitmechworks's picture

While talking about how he started the conversation on population control.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

Reading gjohnsits essay, i guess I am an abandoned Democrat turned Independent because I absolutely cannot stomach Hillary. While I hate Obama for selling us out, he at least has personal redeeming values. Hillary is a big pit full of snakes for me.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

MichiganGirl's picture

He did nothing the until halfway into his first term, and then it wasn't much, and still couched in very offensive language. He was a prick from start to finish on the issue. Wouldn't even help his friend who asked him to pull a string so he could get into a French doctor for treatment.

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"It is through disobedience that progress has been made, through disobedience and through rebellion." Oscar Wilde, 1891"

TheOtherMaven's picture

It's not only #BLM who should have a "Say Their Names!" campaign going.

(The list of sacrifices to Reagan's willful blindness and malice is at least 50,000 names long.)

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

-- to use the language of Catch-22 in regard to how badly she fucked up -- let 'em eat their own livers.

Yeah, intense language, I know. It's a military thing.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Borkrom's picture

Thank you for posting this very informative diary- I really appreciate it.

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Azazello's picture

I see that LL is right there to give you some love, what a tool.

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We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.

B. Joe King's picture

between primary turnout of the incumbent party's members and the party seeking to regain the whitehouse.
On a somewhat related note regarding coattails. I would argue that Bernie has a much greater likelihood of getting more dems elected should he secure the nomination. While not testable, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that a lot of the otherwise enthusiastic about Sanders young voters would likely not vote at all if HRC secures the nomination.

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Gold is the wealth of kings; silver is the wealth of commoners; barter is the wealth of peasants; and debt is the wealth of slaves.

Big Al's picture

you know there's a problem. Consider that of that 25-40 percent, it is fairly evenly split among Republicans and Democrats, varying by State. Which means that only 12/13 to 20 percent of voters are choosing each party's candidate.

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every state in the general election we just need to get to 270 and we will have no problem doing that with the turn Bernie will generate in the states we need.

Thanks gjhonsit!

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Cassiodorus's picture

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"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati

link

And so, from the moment that they realized that people were “feeling the Bern,” Team Hillary started promoting a truly mind-boggling notion: that while peoples’ hearts may be with Bernie, their heads are, or ought to be, with Hillary — because she is on their side and she knows how to get things done.
Never mind that even their cleverest pitchmen would have a hard time coming up with examples of anything worthwhile that Hillary Clinton has ever gotten done.
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detroitmechworks's picture

They would probably have a LOT of input into what Hillary has done for them. We can't really ask the guys who are in the military about that because they're still out of the country for the foreseeable future...

What kind of leadership HAS she shown?

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj563ViG7Qg]

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

I know a left-leaning independent who despises Trump but nevertheless says he's "this close" to voting for Trump if Clinton wins "Just to wipe that smirk off her face."

Seriously, guys, she is not more electable.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

MichiganGirl's picture

I don't think she can win Michigan. She has to get indies to do it, and she simply can't. There are Dems in Michigan that won't vote for her, because of the trade agreements. I'm not talking "kind of sort of" Dems either, I'm talking dues paying, card carrying, multi-decades long, active members of the Democratic Parties all over the state of Michigan.

I've tried to tell people for years, tried to explain just how deep the hatred, and bitterness over those trade deals goes here in Michigan, but no one would listen. It's a real thing, and I don't think fear of trump is enough, because there are a lot of Michiganders that believe they know for a fact that the Clintons can't be trusted to do right by Michiganders. They're willing to toss the dice on trump, because he might screw them, but he might not, too. They figure they already know what she would do though, they're still living with the consequences of trusting her husband.

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"It is through disobedience that progress has been made, through disobedience and through rebellion." Oscar Wilde, 1891"

CambridgePulsar1919's picture

I think it's not just MI, it's all the 'rusty' parts of the U.S. that have been abandoned by the puppets of the wealthy in both parties. I think this is the tug o' war that you're going to see in many blue states when you look at who wins, county by county. Get nearer to the cities where the big money is, and things will likely go Hillary's way, but in the vast, abandoned expanse of industrial America, Bernie is going to rule.
If Hillary manages to eke out the win, she may or may not lose in the general, depending on who is on the other side, but she will have hamstrung the Dems for decades. I'm sure the DNC thinks they can utter sweet nothings in the ears of Berniecrats and lure them towards some sort of reconciliation, but they are so very, very mistaken.

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If there is no Bernie, they will vote for Trump. They are not the Green Party type. They'll support Bernie because he's a tough old dude. They will never vote for Hillary or Jill Stein.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Cassiodorus's picture

Sanders campaign tells me:

Here we come!
Fort Hays St. University 3/11 (MO) Quinnipiac 3/8 (OH)
Clinton: 47% Clinton: 52%
Sanders: 40% Sanders: 43%

At this point last week, we were down more than 20 points in Michigan. But we scored the greatest upset in modern political history because our supporters stepped up in record numbers in the final days before the primary.

Once upon a time we were down 20, 30 points or more in ALL FIVE STATES voting next Tuesday. Not any more.

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"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati

"The Editorial Board" at the NYT (and I use that title loosely) issued an article today (March 12, 2016) titled "The Bernie Sanders Revolution". Unsurprisingly, perhaps, it is one more of a litany of scurrilously biased efforts on the part of the newspaper to undermine this man, and the movement associated with him. I find the kind of political pandering exemplified by the article to be offensive. So, in response I wrote the following as a comment, and submitted it to the times (I'm using lower case deliberately, because newspaper itself is no longer The Times):
The NYT is, apparently, intent on humiliating itself with facile rag journalism so nakedly biased as to be almost laughable... and it would be, except that it's supposed to be a newspaper of record. It was once... in fact, admirably so. However, it, along with the established political structures, is so grotesquely out of step with the genuine concerns that press upon the lives of Americans, that it seems content to foolishly bray its ignorance in so transparent a manner. This is either because it holds its readers in such contempt as to presume we know no better, or its cadre of writers have become drunk on establishment cool-aid. I don't rely on the times for news or analysis anymore, let alone information that has even a passing relationship with what might be called a fact. Other sources are available to those individuals still interested in news from sources with some commitment to journalistic integrity. You can hardly blame them for occupying abandoned territory.
...the times chose not to publish my comment. My anger comes from the belief that newspapers that hold privileged positions, as the times does, have a responsibility to uphold certain standards of integrity in journalism. When instead, they present readers with articles such as this, they should be subject to the derision of readers that deserve much better. Principles and journalistic ethics demand it. Shame on the times!

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