Elections to watch in 2018

This is my list of important election between now and November.

March 4, Italy

An opinion poll by EMG Acqua from early December suggested that no one party would gain a majority of the votes, creating a "hung parliament" situation.

If the polls are correct then nothing much will be decided in March.
The most likely winner is the center-right coalition. Although if the populist Five Star Movement (which is the most popular party in Italy) does better than expected, then anything is possible. The reason being is that the far-right Northern League and Five Star are Euro-skeptics.
Any move away from the Euro currency could cause a panic in the financial markets.

July 1, Mexico

Unlike the Italian elections, the likely results of the Mexico elections could be earth-shattering.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador's campaign rhetoric can make him sound like a Mexican Donald Trump.
The left-leaning front-runner in Mexico’s presidential race is overtly nationalistic, pushes “Mexican people first” policies and peppers his speeches with anti-establishment slogans that thrill the working-class Mexicans who flock to his rallies.
But while his style might be distinctly Trumpian, his policy prescriptions could not be more different. Indeed, the election of the former mayor of Mexico City could be disastrous for Trump and his administration, creating an even more charged relationship between the two countries that could reduce cooperation on border security, trade and immigration.

Socialist Obrador, who has made fighting corruption central to his campaign, leads in the polls by as much as 11 points. If his lead holds it is likely that Trump's diplomatic relations with Mexico would virtually collapse, with unknown consequences for NAFTA negotiations.
As if to underscore how serious the establishment is taking this election, the U.S. is already blaming Russia.

May 27, Colombia

Colombian presidential elections used to be about defending the country from leftists, not bringing them to the threshold of power.
Next year’s vote, the first since the end of a five-decade civil war, may be different. Ahead in recent opinion polls is Gustavo Petro, ex-mayor of the capital Bogota and a former guerrilla who’s promising to tax wealthy landowners and stock investors. He’s battling for pole position with two pro-business candidates, while other left-wingers also feature among the early frontrunners.

Colombia is a relatively small nation, so it's impact will be marginal but symbolic.

Various Democratic Party primaries

The sheer, historic volume of candidates, particularly among Democrats, tells part of the tale. The surge is most apparent in contests for the House of Representatives, where, through the end of September, 455 Democratic challengers had already registered with the Federal Election Commission — more than twice as many than at any other point in the last 15 years, according to an analysis by the Campaign Finance Institute. By comparison, only 111 Republican challengers had filed to raise money.

This year will be the first real test of the ability of the progressive left to knock off establishment incumbents.
Unfortunately, most of the races, especially in the House and state level races, haven't had any polls done yet. Even the polls that have been done often exclude first-time challengers.
So it's impossible to guess which might flip at this point.
However, there is an exception.

No state democratic party is a bigger enemy of progressives than Florida, but with the influx of refugees from Puerto Rico that could change at the governor's mansion.

The Democratic primary has no clear frontrunner but no shortage of candidates, with a field that already includes former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, businessman Chris King, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, an African-American who's running from the left by backing Medicare for All and action on climate change. Personal injury lawyer, medical marijuana advocate, and living-wage proponent John Morgan is considering running as well.

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Just as Hillary Clinton and her aides told some lies but weren’t ultimately to blame in the Benghazi tragedy, President Trump and his campaign did not collude with the Russians. Too bad for the Democrats that they can’t learn from how Republicans mishandled and overplayed the Benghazi affair. In the same way Benghazi became an obsession for many in the GOP, the idea of collusion between the Trump campaign and Vladimir Putin is now baked into the Democratic psyche. No matter what special counsel Robert S. Mueller III finds, Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media will never accept that Trump didn’t collude with the Russians.

Democrats are already operating on the basis that collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia is a foregone conclusion — but not because they believe it. Just as it would have been heresy for a Republican to admit that Hillary was not to blame for Benghazi, Democrats are now in a position where they will draw the ire of the party’s most zealous members and risk primary challenges from the left if they question the certainty of Trump’s collusion with Russia. Democrats who want to avoid intra-party trouble are relying on dishonest hyperbole and tangential facts to build their defenses.

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@gjohnsit "Obama Kenyan birth certificate." Both party's loyalists have given themselves lobotomies and are unable to function as adults.

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Orwell: Where's the omelette?

Lookout's picture

...and I guess he might, but according to wiki -

The next general election in the United Kingdom is scheduled to be held on 5 May 2022 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. The election may be held at an earlier date in the event of an early election motion being passed by a super-majority of two-thirds in the House of Commons, or a vote of no confidence in the government which is not followed by a vote of confidence within 14 days.

Under the current Brexit timetable, and should no earlier election be called, it is scheduled to be the first general election since 1970 to be held with the United Kingdom outside the European Union and its predecessor the European Communities.

Guess we'll have to wait and see. The Mexican election is interesting too. Of course the outcome of the election in Honduras is still up in the air - the likely stolen election is supported by the US but almost no other countries.
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/12/04/apparent-election-theft-in-honduras/
It is also interesting how the fair election in Venezuela last fall has been so under-reported.

Thanks for the international perspective on elections!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout
and trigger a snap election in the next year or so, but it's impossible to know when.

Maybe if the Tories do poorly in local election in May, it might cause the government to collapse.

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@gjohnsit @Lookout . Thank you for your interesting posts, I read them every day. The local election results will not have any effect on the parliamentary elections. Because the Tories do not have a working majority, if many of their own members vote against or fail to support a major piece of legislation, it could signal the end; not just Tory rule but also Theresa May's time as leader of her party. She is holding on to power only with the help of a small Northern Ireland right wing party.

On the Labour front, Momentum is giving heartburn to the establishment. According to Owen Jones, at The Guardian, they have successfully forced out some old timers from the local councils. Momentum activists were trained by veterans of the Sanders campaign.

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It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan

riverlover's picture

Let's hope a few more convert to woke. I am still not sure whether that is something to vote for. Still in the cynical stage of grief.

Do you think that there is a general isolationist shift worldwide (China being the outlier)? How many foreign bases do we own and not lease?

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

gulfgal98's picture

I know of three of the Democratic party candidates. First, I have to point out that the Democratic party in Florida sucks big time. Nevertheless, below are my takes on the three Democratic party candidates that I know something about.

Gwen Graham is the daughter of former governor/US senator Bob Graham. I was a big fan of Bob Graham, but I would never vote for Gwen Graham again. She was my representative in the House and she was horrible. There were very few Democrats who voted more often with the Republicans than Gwen Graham including her vote for the Keystone XL pipeline. I have heard that she is the Democratic party front runner.

I know Andrew Gillum very well. I worked for the city of Tallahassee when he was first elected to the city commission. He is extremely bright and a very impressive person. He voted the right way on most issues when I was still working and he was always knowledgeable and prepared. However the city of Tallahassee has had some scandals (including an FBI probe) lately involving it administration of a CRA (Community Redevelopment District) district which have tainted Gillum. I hate this because I really like Gillum personally, but it appears that he is in too deep with Democratic party machine which is not a good thing in Florida. I actually would prefer that Gillum run for the House.

Like most Floridians, I know of John Morgan. He is a wild card in so many ways. Rumors are that Morgan will not be running. However, if he does run, he would have a good chance to win because he would shake up the good ole boy network that is Florida. And I might just vote for him myself.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

snoopydawg's picture

Russia Gate has gotten way out of hand. After a year of it we still haven't seen any evidence that Putin had anything to do with the election and the Trump campaign. Fusion GPS is a very shady group that itself had/has connections with Russian people as well as connections in other countries such as Venezuela.

I'm reading a couple articles about Fusion and its shenanigans in congress' investigations. When the information in the articles became known to some republicans they decided there was enough problems with it to warrant investigation into Fusion instead of staying with the Mueller investigations. I'm thinking of doing an essay on it, but not sure how much interest people here have in this. The fact that the DNC and Hillary's campaign paid for Steele to get some Opposition Research on Trump and then it was used to get a FISA warrant to spy on Trump is the bigger story. An outgoing president's intelligence agencies working with the campaign of someone in his party should still be a big deal in this country. Nixon and his plumbers sequel?

I'm interested in this because I hoping that when all the information comes out about this propaganda that has the country divided, people will see how much they have been manipulated by the government. This has distracted the country long enough, IMO.

ETA- sorry my rant came after reading the article that was linked.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@snoopydawg

... I'm thinking of doing an essay on it, but not sure how much interest people here have in this. ...

Who wouldn't be interested? This is a very important issue, even among the flood of so many others!

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

hecate's picture

is that more of the Americans donate to charity, than vote. This indicates to me that the Americans do want to help people. They're just not sure the voting will do that.

Also, and over several election cycles, more of the Americans would vote for American Idol, than for the president. That is why The Hairball was the winner. He was the more exciting contestant.

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TheLeftistheCenter's picture

@hecate @hecate

Though it made me chuckle im not sure this is true. I think fundamentally Trump won because he ran against the only person more people would vote against than himself. She was the devil they knew and he was the wild card and many asked "how much worse can he be?". O'Malley would have done better, because Hillary is by far the most hated woman in American politics, i'm not even sure anyone even gets close.

I'd bet my last dollar there were as many nos to Hillary as yeses to Trump in his victory.

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snoopydawg's picture

@TheLeftistheCenter

I've heard from people saying that they either didn't vote because of Hillary or that they voted for Trump because of her. Or that people held their noses and voted for her because of Trump. She was known for being crooked going back decades. There was a reason why she and Bill were investigated so many times, and just because no charges stuck to them doesn't mean that they weren't crooks. It just means that no one could prove it. The worst candidate in a long time and the democrats knew how people felt about her, but they'd rather Trump won then Bernie.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@snoopydawg

Sorry, half-finished dupe somehow appeared, I'm guessing after the comment I was working on suddenly vanished and announced that the site had timed out, even though I hadn't even pressed preview again... getting a lot of weirdness still, drat it.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

@snoopydawg

Even The Mad Bomber's supporters were telling people to hold their noses and vote for Her - and I still think that we'd never have survived this long with Her, as Her was set to go-go-go- with Russia (and everyone else on the US PTB long-standing hit list) and we wouldn't have had this delay in the MAD which TPTB evidently have their heartlessness also set on, believing that they'll somehow survive that 'limited nuclear war' to be inflicted upon so very much of the world that they'd much rather for-profit destroy (incidentally, along with the global life support system) than simply 'allow' free sovereign nations their individual self-chosen destinies - and the good of their own natural resources.

Hell, the Neos are still stuck way back in the freaking decades-gone paranoid propaganda of the Cold War, for the love of nukes, with the long-defunct (due to the US PTB's habit of chronic electoral meddling also in other people's countries, as well their own, of course,) Communist Soviet Union, they certainly aren't about to accept modern studies accounting for more, previously missed, essential factors displayed in modern computer projections of actual effects, especially when these studies have not been designed by their industry backers with maximized profits and kick-backs to their representatives.

I still find it hard to believe that anyone could be conned into actually believing this nonsense...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

hecate's picture

@TheLeftistheCenter
Clinton woman had been on the show longer than many of the Americans had been alive. Her act was tired, stupid, and boring, and no one wanted to look at it any more.

Like Schopenhauer says:

Whoever lives two or three generations, feels like the spectator who, during the fair, sees the performances of all kinds of jugglers and, if he remains seated in the booth, sees them repeated two or three times. As the tricks were meant only for one performance, they no longer make any impression after the illusion and novelty have vanished.

She needed to go out there and sing "I Dreamed A Dream," like Susan Boyle. But she could not.

Other contestants would drone on about a bill that had something to do with farms. Then The Hairball would volubly discourse on his penis. Also, he said that after he won, he would put the other contestants in jail! It was all very exciting. The Americans couldn't get enough of it.

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janis b's picture

@hecate

[video:https://youtu.be/TnkjOHVK-H4]

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hecate's picture

@janis b
on the Presidential Idol show? He would not get many votes. His hair is too scary. It looks like it would leap right out of the tubes!

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janis b's picture

@hecate

at one time he would have been, had president's been idols.

And, his hair is not nearly as scary as someone else I know of.

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hecate's picture

@janis b
daughter Lolita says in that new Wolff book, that is not hair, but an alien life-form rbkt4.jpgthat escaped from a galactic prison ship as it was passing through the Oort Cloud. It drifted to earth, and settled in Roy Cohn's office. Then it attached itself to The Hairball, the day Cohn brokered with the Five Families that first big real-estate deal of The Hairball's. Cohn to this day continues to communicate with The Hairball, from within that alien mass.

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janis b's picture

@hecate

The outer Oort cloud is only loosely bound to the Solar System, and thus is easily affected by the gravitational pull both of passing stars and of the Milky Way itself. These forces occasionally dislodge comets from their orbits within the cloud and send them toward the inner Solar System.

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Thanks gjohnsit, I think? Feels like I should stand first and announce "Hi, I'm me and I'm addicted to electoral politics", like it is unhealthy behavior or something. Money.

The news that AMLO is leading is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. I follow Mexico News Daily, it is a horror of headlines but I read it because we are neighbors, they're my brothers and sisters. There is nothing about the election on the front pages, no section, I guess most articles are under Opinion.

Nov, 2017: https://mexiconewsdaily.com/opinion/2018-presidential-race-is-growing-chaotic/

López Obrador, who is now making his third presidential run – this time as leader of the left-leaning Morena Party, which he founded after splitting from the Democratic Revolutionary Party in 2014 – is also angling for the anti-PRI vote. With the election still nine months away, this consummate insider rebranded as a disruptive outsider is currently favored to win.

Doh! Bernie passed on the perfect moment in 2016 to create a path forward, it will not come again for years, if ever. Relying on demographics and the plutocracy seems to still be "the plan", just keep peddling as the wheels fall off. It's all "throwing good money after bad" from here on, I think. Tough beans.

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You'd think that, as a crony capitalist, Putin would be magically - (edit: as well as) somehow invariably in this consistently evidence-free manner, or at least which (edit: evidence) can only be seen in the light of 'national security' apparently otherwise not an issue for politicians/spies - manipulating all of the world's elections on the side of other crony capitalists, rather than for socialists. But I suppose that those only capable of looking up their own butts can still see nothing but 1950's McCathyist Red Scares... which I suspect would be related to blood loss from their brains.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.