Russia Is an Emerging Superpower in Global Food Supply

Russia is often seen as a country that produces little that the world wants except energy commodities. The oil export dependence looks like a major time bomb under the country's future, given the current focus in the West and in China on reducing the use of hydrocarbon fuels. By an ironic quirk, however, Russia appears to be benefiting from the climate change its energy resources are helping to fuel: Its prospects as the world's biggest wheat exporter and a grain superpower are bright, not least because of the rise in global temperatures.

In the last marketing year, which ran from July 2016 through June 2017, Russia exported 27.8 million metric tons of wheat, more than the entire European Union, to claim first place in the world for the first time since the EU has been counted as a unit. In the current marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts, Russia will export 31.5 million metric tons, increasing its global lead; it's already facing infrastructure constraints because of the fast growth. It's also a leading exporter of corn, barley and oats. Along with Ukraine and Kazakhstan, it's part of the force increasingly shaping global grain markets -- RUK, as it is known to market experts.

Alexander Tkachev, Russia's agriculture minister, has repeatedly said that he sees grain eventually displacing oil as the country's biggest export revenue source. That's not a view the Kremlin likes to entertain -- it would rather hope for a technology boom -- but Tkachev's prophecy may be more realistic for a number of reasons.

The first two of these are outside of Russia's purview: The growing global population and climate change. Global grain consumption grew, on average, 2.8 percent a year in 2011-2016, and the International Grains Council predicts 1.4 percent annual increases through 2021. At the same time, climate studies show that, compared to the late 1980s, the time of the Soviet Union's demise, which depressed Eurasian agriculture for more than a decade, the temperature in Eurasia's grain-producing areas will increase by up to 1.8 degrees by the 2020s and by up to 3.9 degrees by the 2050s, with the greatest increase in winter. This means a longer growing season and better crop yields. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is also good for crops.

The climate factor may already be helping Russia grab new export markets in Asia as U.S., Canadian and Australian rivals suffer from droughts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-04/russia-is-an-emerging...

How an Oil Giant (Russia) Came to Dominate Wheat

By Anatoly Medetsky
November 13, 2017, 12:00 AM EST From

Russia, a leading exporter of crude oil for decades now, is increasingly dominating another critical global commodity. Its output of wheat has surged in recent years as good growing conditions boost farmers’ profits, allowing them to reinvest in better seeds and equipment. As low oil prices hurt the ruble, making grain more alluring for overseas buyers, Russia grabbed more of the wheat-export market from major shippers like the U.S. This is particularly welcome news for Russia as it tries to cut its dependence on agricultural imports, after it banned imports of some western foods in retaliation to sanctions imposed over the annexation of Crimea.

1. Who’s buying Russian wheat?

About half the countries in the world import wheat from Russia. Some of the biggest buyers are situated a short distance away, in the Middle East and North Africa, but demand comes from as far away as Mexico and Indonesia. Russia’s top customer, Egypt, depends on Russian wheat to feed its people, while No. 2 buyer Turkey uses the grain to make flour it then exports. This season’s shipments are expected to be up more than 40 percent from just three years ago.

2. What’s the allure of Russian grain?

It’s cheap. Gluts from years of bumper harvests depressed prices, which are also kept down by the short shipping routes from the Black Sea -- the hub for the bulk of Russia’s supply -- to Middle Eastern and African buyers. More recently, poor crops made grain from North America and Australia less attractive to some of their traditional markets in Asia, opening up the door for Russian wheat.

3. How did Russia become a wheat export king?

Russia’s wheat exports began to surge at the start of this century, after Soviet-era collective farms gave way to private ownership of rich soils and farmers gained access to the latest international technology. Now, tractors made by U.S. firm Deere & Co. and Germany’s Claas KGaA roll across Russian farms, and crops are sprayed with pesticides made by Monsanto Co. and Syngenta AG. Helped by state support, farmers’ costs can be as little as half those of major competitors, so Russia can afford to keep planting even when prices tumble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/how-an-oil-giant-russ...

THIS is one of many reasons why BRICS will soon be calling the shots in the global financial marketplace.

UNLESS we can figure out a way to make this all part of the reason the Clinton Creature lost the election, that is. Maybe those sneaky RUSSIAns! are hacking the ‘clouds’ and stealing all our rainwater and good weather! Now we’ll have to start a war with them to put them back in their place for sure. A nation of dull, humourless, corrupt commies couldn’t possibly be as strong, industrious, or intelligent as we are. And if they don’t believe that then we’ll have NATO circle Russia and demonstrate how tough we are with war games right on their borders.

Oh wait. We’re already doing the war game thing. Then I guess we should just nuke ‘em. I know the Clinton Creature and the DNC would approve.