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CARTOON: and for a long time.
Submitted by pearldive on Sun, 03/06/2016 - 2:13pm
My personal unskewing shifts 5% over to Bernie for low coverage of cellphone users in the polls. Just my feeling and given the great turnouts in the last few days I don't think we are getting checked into the glass unawares. Florida is still a southern state but Ohio is looking good.
according to Wikipedia anyway, so Bernie should outperform expectations, though perhaps not enough to win.
The Southern Primary is over after the 15th and Primary Phase 3 (PP3) starts. Unfortunately, Bernie will be down around 250ish delegates at the start of PP3, but he should be able to make up much of that and even take the lead going into the convention.
My real concern is that neither campaign will have 2383 pledged delegates to win outright on the first ballot, and that the super delegates will make the choice. If Clinton has the majority and they vote with her they have cover. If Bernie has the majority of pledged delegates and they pick Clinton anyway (you know they would) it would be a huge scandal, and might be enough to throw the election to Trump (probably not enough to throw it to Cruz).
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Irish politics is entering a new phase after a sensational general election result which turned much of conventional political wisdom on its head.
The parties are all entering uncharted waters and the ultimate result could well be a rebalancing of the entire political system rather than the novelty of a grand coalition between the two Civil War parties.
The big election winner was Fianna Fáil. The party has come back from the near- death experience of 2011 to more than double its number of seats and come within just one percentage point of Fine Gael in the share of the vote.
The big loser was the Labour Party, which was almost wiped out in the worst election performance in its history. Fine Gael had a deeply disappointing election, losing much more support than it had expected.
On Instagram, Sanders saw the greatest overall gain in followers, adding a whopping 85,580 new followers, according to the photo sharing app. He also overcame Clinton to become the most followed Democratic candidate, and second overall to Donald Trump’s 1.11 million followers. Sanders now has 927,240 followers compared to Clinton’s 896,980.
Sanders also had the most liked post of the week compared to all presidential candidates with more than 102,000 likes.
....
Of course, the social media king Donald Trump dominated absolutely all the other candidates on social media this week, sucking up about 60 percent of the conversation on Twitter and Facebook among all the candidates — some of his highest shares of the entire campaign. On Friday, Trump had a full 70 percent of the Facebook conversation.
Comments
The Polls don't look good
Bernie should win Maine today, but it doesn't look good after that.
He's 20 points down in Tuesday Michigan primary.
And then comes March 15.
Florida 25 points down
North Carolina 19 points down
Illinois 19 points down (although the poll is old)
The only place where Bernie can realistically score a big win is Ohio, 8 points down
Ugh. So sad.
adjustments
My personal unskewing shifts 5% over to Bernie for low coverage of cellphone users in the polls. Just my feeling and given the great turnouts in the last few days I don't think we are getting checked into the glass unawares. Florida is still a southern state but Ohio is looking good.
Michigan is an open primary
according to Wikipedia anyway, so Bernie should outperform expectations, though perhaps not enough to win.
The Southern Primary is over after the 15th and Primary Phase 3 (PP3) starts. Unfortunately, Bernie will be down around 250ish delegates at the start of PP3, but he should be able to make up much of that and even take the lead going into the convention.
My real concern is that neither campaign will have 2383 pledged delegates to win outright on the first ballot, and that the super delegates will make the choice. If Clinton has the majority and they vote with her they have cover. If Bernie has the majority of pledged delegates and they pick Clinton anyway (you know they would) it would be a huge scandal, and might be enough to throw the election to Trump (probably not enough to throw it to Cruz).
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Irish elections
another center-left party falls
Sanders is winning social media
too bad it doesn't mean much