U.S. alliances in Syria shift as ISIS fades

It wasn't a surprise that Turkey was upset with the Trump Administration's decision to arm the Syrian Kurdish rebels. What they may not have anticipated is just how upset Turkey is.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday inferred the United States would "pay a price" for supporting the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) currently fighting the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria.
"Unfortunately countries we call allies do not find any problem in cooperating with terrorist groups that have set eyes on the wholeness of Turkey," said Erdogan in a meeting with members of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Istanbul.
"Those [the US] who think they have deceived Turkey by telling that they will take back weapons they gave to the terror group will eventually understand they made a fatal mistake. But it will be too late," Erdogan continued, according to Kurdistan24's Istanbul bureau.

What did Erdogan mean by "pay a price"? He means by a crisis in NATO.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened the US on Sunday over its arming of Kurdish forces in Syria, calling for a review of the Nato military alliance in response.
“At one side we will be together in Nato but on the other side you will act together with terror organisations,” he said in reference to the US-led coalition support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is dominated by the Kurdish People's Protection Forces (YPG) Turkey considers terrorists.
...“All of these moves are against Nato,” he said. “In this case, the Nato treaty should be revised.”

Does he really think he can get NATO to align against the U.S.? Probably not.
However, when NATO refuses to do so, this could easily lead to Turkey leaving NATO.
NATO only recently decided to join the fight against ISIS.

The Syrian Kurds have not kept it a secret that they wish to have an autonomous state in Syria.
Turkey has warned that it "would never allow a state founded by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) in Syria".
Turkey appears to be serious about this, and has been building up their military forces along the border. Damascus also opposes the Kurds move toward autonomy.
This is all being exacerbated by the Iraqi Kurds holding a vote on full independence, which is expected to pass in September.

“We think this will represent a terrible mistake,” said the Turkish foreign ministry in a statement. “The maintenance of Iraq’s territorial integrity and political unit is one of the fundamental principles of Turkey’s Iraq policy.”
But in a country that is already rife with sectarian violence, the move is likely to strain already fragile relations between the regional capital Erbil and Baghdad, and risks sparking intra-Kurdish clashes that could spill over into neighbouring countries.
Baghdad has already rejected the referendum call.

Iraq's Shia militias have vowed to go to war with the Kurds if they declare independence.

Robert Ford, who served as envoy to Syria under former President Barack Obama, predicted that this will not end well for the Syrian Kurds.

"[The U.S.] will not defend the Kurds against Assad's forces," the former envoy said. "What we're doing with the Kurds is not only politically stupid, but immoral."
"Syrian Kurds are making their biggest mistake in trusting the Americans," he added.
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CB's picture

Turkey would be a better fit with China and the other members of the SCO than with NATO. The country would also be a natural fit into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with it's extensive economic connections with Germany/EU and China.

China is ready to discuss Turkey's membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Chinese ambassador to Turkey said Friday.
May 12,2017
Yu Hongyang told Anadolu Agency that Beijing would be willing to discuss Turkey joining the six-nation bloc with other member states.

Speaking ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to China, Yu said: "Turkey has reached the position of being a dialogue partner of the organization by attending the activities of the SCO in recent years.

"China, which understands Turkey's intention of becoming a member of the SCO, is ready for Turkey's membership… in consultation with other member countries."

The SCO is made up of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Turkey was approved as one of six "dialogue partners" in 2012.

The Empire is getting more and more ragged at the edges.

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word is ISIS defeated is moving center of operations to Afghanistan and Islamic China. Which will make China's One Belt project that much more difficult to bring to realization. Odd how often the terrorists help US goals, isn't it?

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Orwell: Where's the omelette?

CB's picture

Putin attends the start of Turkish Stream pipe-laying on June 24, 2017. This pipeline is a direct replacement for the US engineered scrapping of South Stream. It's the same pipeline except with a turn to the left towards Turkey at its end. The pipeline will be paired in the future to supply Europe from Turkey. Try as it might, the US cannot box Putin in.

For those that still believe Russia does not have access to advanced technology watch the following.

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Pricknick's picture

@CB
I laughed all through the video. The u.s spends hundreds of billion on war. Russia spends tens of billions on global infrastructure.
No doubt who will win the global economy while we win global ruin.
Not to worry though. One trillion to upgrade our nuclear weapons so everybody's safer.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

CB's picture

@Pricknick
leverage over Erdogen and puts a crimp in the pipeline wars. Russia with Putin at the helm is the Kurds best bet in Syria.

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CB's picture

But Assad may be amenable to the proposed Russian drafted Syrian constitution which will give the Kurds greater autonomy - somewhat similar to what the various ethnic regions within the Russian Federation now have. He has stated that decision will be up to the people of Syria. Splitting up the country by having full independence for the Kurds is non-negotiable.

Assad has temporarily allowed the Kurds in Syria to operate autonomously. They fly their own flag and operate their own courts, jails, police forces, schools with their language. This is a remarkable concession considering the situation prior to the conflict. Some Arabs in the region may object.

Russia is the only country that can negotiate these treacherous waters between Turkey, Syria and the Kurds. Of course, successful negotiations will require the US to stay out and stop meddling.

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@CB
were able somehow to stay out and stop meddling for a change. To voluntarily refrain from being quite so exceptional and indispensable that is. If not, we might just get dispensed with anyway, no matter how exceptional we are.

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native

thanatokephaloides's picture

@native

It would be wonderful if the USA were able somehow to stay out and stop meddling for a change.

And start meddling with our own domestic problems for once?

Wow, man, what a concept!!

Diablo

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

dervish's picture

@native Heck yeah.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

constantly quote Walter Scott.

“Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive.”

FUBAR and yet more FUBAR.

Here's Joe Biden speaking the truth before being forced to apologize for the truth:

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25aDP7io30U]

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Pricknick's picture

@Linda Wood @Linda Wood
The difference between hippocratic oath and a hypocrite oaf.
And to think that he's the leading contender for 2020 on the democratic side if you don't count Bernie.
Which I don't.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

detroitmechworks's picture

America is beautiful, but only because we haven't had centuries of industrial conflict all over it.

Our politicians better wise up or they'll discover that we have lost everything when all we had to do was be content with what we had.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

@detroitmechworks

while we try to relearn Stone Age survival skills.

Although we still have such a beautiful world, so far, despite all the damage we've done to it.

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chuckvw's picture

Still on track to war... Behind the Haaretz firewall:

White House: Syria's Assad appears to be planning another chemical attack

If attack carried out, Assad and Syrian military will pay 'a heavy price,' U.S. says...

Secret memo to al Nusra: Stage chemical attack ASAP!

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You should only listen to both sides when one side isn't totally full of shit. -Jim Jefferies

CB's picture

@chuckvw

White House Appears to Be Planning Attack on Assad
Press Statement Lays Groundwork for US Attack
Jason Ditz Posted on June 26, 2017

Raising speculation that the US is about to attack Syria again, the White House has issued a statement late this evening accusing the Assad government in Syria of conducting “potential preparations for another chemical weapons attack,” claiming that such an attack would involve the “mass murder of civilians, including innocent children.”

The late night report was extremely light on details, but threatened to make Syria’s government and military “pay a heavy price,” suggesting that the statement was only issued to lay the groundwork for a new round of US attacks on Syrian government targets.

The US last attacked Syria in earnest in early April, firing 49 cruise missiles at a Syrian air base. The attack was carried out despite reports ultimately showing that the US intelligence community found no evidence a chemical weapon attack took place.

The White House statement ignored that revelation, and presented the early April incident as a “chemical weapons attack” just like the one they believe to be imminent. Since the administration is very keen to present what they did in April as justified, it would not be surprising if they did so again.

Such a move would be particularly risky now, coming amid Russian warnings that the US needs to stop attacking Syrian government targets. It also comes just hours after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson spoke with Russia’s Foreign Minister about a ceasefire, which seems a particularly inopportune time to attack.

Apparently the DoD knows nothing about this. Maybe Trump thinks he can get another popularity boost by bombing Syria. Trump is fucked in the head.

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@CB
like Trump and Mattis decided to bomb Syria's Shayrat airbase to stop the drumbeat for all out war from Neocon, deep state, and CIA forces? Mattis made the point that it was a one-off attack. If there has been another attempt, this time by Tillerson, to start ceasefire talks with Russia, and the Neocon media are saying Syria is preparing another gas attack, doesn't that sound like the Neocons, once again, trying to obstruct negotiations toward peace by the Trump State Department?

I do agree with all who say Trump has a kind of disorder in which whoever is talking to him at the moment can change his mind completely. He's like a flea. You can't predict what he will do. But I think there are American military people, like the people talking to Seymour Hersh, who DO NOT want to go to war with either Syria or Iran, and I actually put Mattis in that group.

There are clearly nutcase military who party with the Neocons and the CIA and who want perpetual war. And because of Michael Flynn's 2012 report as DIA director that the Gulf States and western powers were building a caliphate in Syria, and because of his struggle with leadership over this, I feel there are definitely American military who oppose all of the treasonous duplicity of supporting ISIS and the Saudi cartel. This is a struggle within the military. It is people in our military who are speaking to Seymour Hersh.

I don't think it's Trump who is diving headlong into war. It's whoever's talking to him from the treasonous side of this divide in our government.

https://levantreport.com/2015/05/19/2012-defense-intelligence-agency-doc...

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@Linda Wood

Sure hope that's it.

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CB's picture

@Linda Wood
the intelligence agencies and the military command within the US government. Sy Hersh used to be able to report on some of these. Unfortunately, he has been ostracized by the corrupt MSM and no longer enjoys much support.

Moon of Alabama is one of the few sites that still gives correct information. They are rarely incorrect.

I'm going to do a quick diary on this subject with some info I have found.

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@CB
I read your essay, Seymour Hersh investigates "gas attack" at Khan Sheikhoun, and your comments, so I can see that you also find a divide between parts of the intelligence community that is similar to the one I see in our military:

https://caucus99percent.com/comment/275989#comment-275989

The CIA and Pentagon are of two minds of what to do in Syria. There are also conflicts within each agency. Even the current "Russia hacked the election" is from cherry picking within the agencies.

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@CB
in this area of research for us. I look forward to your essays and comments, especially as things become more nightmarish.

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CB's picture

@chuckvw
https://twitter.com/nikkihaley/status/879528793135878145?ref_src=twsrc%5...

Nikki Haley ‏Verified account @nikkihaley

Any further attacks done to the people of Syria will be blamed on Assad, but also on Russia & Iran who support him killing his own people.

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lotlizard's picture

@CB  
in American society, of making absolute deference to Israel a key condition of career success in or around government.

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