How to kill a $400 million project and not break a sweat.
I had a good laugh today when HenryWallace questioned the veracity of my statement, "It is very exhilarating to be involved with shutting down multimillion dollar projects." Noting "that people sometimes sincerely mistake correlation for causation.", and opined "I would trust your sincere belief in anything that you posted and would never assume intentional deceit on your part."
As HenryWallace was never (as far as I know) a student in any of my classes I can forgive the insult inherent in his words and ascribe no malice aforethought to to his query. I am however still laughing my ass off with respect to his choice of words (for edification check out "passive-aggressive" or "Visit Nebraska, Visit Nice" sigh, do they even know ‽). Ah!, but now for the serious stuff.
Have any of you ever had the experience of crushing the dreams of a petty bureaucrat bent on environmental mayhem just because he wants to built a legacy project?
In the mid 1970s a group of farmers formed the Save Our Land Organization (SOLO) and later collaborated with the newly created BBAS:
1975 – Water projects that would have further drained vital flows needed by sandhill cranes, whooping cranes, and other migratory waterfowl were being proposed for the Platte River. Led by Audubon, the Midstate Project, the largest and most threatening of the proposed diversions, is defeated in a local referendum. This effort led directly to the formation of the Big Bend Audubon Society in Kearney, as well as chapters in Grand Island and Hastings.
I showed up in 1979, ta da, and hit the ground running as I became a board member of BBAS and joined other volunteers doing restoration work on the recently created sanctuary 12 miles east of Kearney very near the "P" of Platte River.
Soon after I arrived Ron Bishop the director of the Central Platte Natural Resources District started promoting a variation on the recently scuttled Midstate Project. It's price tag of $400,000,000 was in part responsible for some people becoming a bit concerned. The BBAS took a lead role once again as the threat to the riparian habitat in the Big Bend Reach of the Platte River due to this project would have been extreme.
A decade earlier support the Midstate Project was stronger, but the developing crises in farm financing helped soften that support as more farmers were becoming skeptical of government projects. But Ronny had a plan. He and his staff developed several alternative versions of the project so that they were able to de-clarify the actual details presented at any one meeting.
I was able to obtain a pamphlet with sketches that included water elevations for a set of reservoirs in one version of the project. I bought a set of USGS quadrangle maps covering the project area. Using trivial cartographic techniques, I indicated in readable detail one version of the project.
At an open meeting in Amherst, NE I set up a display at the back of the Grange Hall. As the room filled with people, studiously ignoring me, I quietly waited for the inevitable explosion. As Ron entered from the inner sanctum behind the podium he spotted me in the back of the room and with an exaggerated Shakespearian gesture pointed toward me and shouted, "That man doesn't know what he is talking about, he know nothing!" Several of the locals then converged on my location to check out my lack of knowledge. I showed them the pamphlet with Ron's name on it, and they looked at the large maps I had prepared. One farmer, pointed at a spot on the map saying, in anger, "That's my farm!, Underwater?" Ron Bishop did not have a good evening that evening.
Please understand that my contribution was a small bit mixed in with a very large campaign to inform the farmers in the area as to the truth of the project. We found out: The farmers on the hills to the north thought the farmers in the valley were getting a better deal as removing water from the river would allow them to farm more of the river bottom. The farmer in the valley thought the farmers on the hills were getting a better deal because they would be able to use the water to increase their yields on their "dry land" crops. Funny things happened when we got them talking together.
As it became obvious that the project in its new incarnation was on the verge of collapse, the farmers were starting to talk like us liberal environmentalist, well almost.
Ron hired a particularly well educated hydrologist to testify that by removing water up river from the project and accounting for the fact that all the removed water would only be able to return to the river via ground water routes, the Big Bend Reach of the Platte River would become a gaining stream. Further this rather well educated hydrologist doubled down by testifying that a gaining reach of stream was a good thing as that indicated the project could be counted as increasing its flow in the environmental impact documents and the EPA would like to see enhanced flows in this reach of the river. Think about that for a moment ... yep that's what he said.
Most farmers still (three decades later) don't like us much. The exception to that rule: The farmers near the Sanctuary like us just fine, but that is a different story.
Comments
A gaining stream? In 40-50 years, maybe, but not.
I live on a hillside of Marcellus shale. My woodland is considered "recharge" for the stream 300' below. Ooooh yessss. Lucky now, we are still under a flood warning here, ground is saturated now and more rain is predicted, but it's still virga here.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
The recharge time scale is very short here.
On the order of months at most. So, the hydrologist did that part of the calculation correctly. The part that he had so very wrong is that systemically the system would be carrying less water (evaporation would have been enhanced), the flow reading along that reach of the river would have been lowered at every metered station. But as he pointed out the values from one station to the next would show increases from the upstream stations to the downstream stations.
So by removing water the normal flow rate non-gaining stream would be transformed into a very small flow rate gaining stream. And, bonus!, we would be able to document this "progressive" transformation over about one year, or maybe two. Wow, ain't science fun.
This is one of those systems were hydrological modeling is particularly simple. I was not allowed to testify because our lawyer was not willing to go through the "expert witness qualification" procedure. The hydrologist's testimony was not challenged because our lawyer would not ask him the questions I suggested. So, as all of us of the cognoscenti sat there in stunned silence all this fake science was transcribed into the record.
Your so-called advocate was a sell-out.
1. Establish you as an expert witness
2. Ask some hard hitting questions of the hydrologist
There might have been a little of the $400 M finding its way into his/her pocket.
Could be that's true.
I didn't much care for him when we met him at the restaurant at the top of the tall building in Downtown Lincoln. He just seemed too "at home" in them fancy digs.
I said as much to the others of our "delegation" and, as I had not other suggestions we-all retained him, sigh. Lesson learned, in the future rely on the ol' spidey sense when it is tingling.
The most difficult part for me was the total lack of understanding, on the part of the lawyers, of academic/scientific protocol. A significant portion of "establishing the expertise" of the hydrologist involve testimony about his GPA as a graduate student in Colorado. A significant potion of his expert testimony included the insertion of the nonsensical phrase, "within reasonable scientific certainty", WTF does that mean. I deal with real data, and stochastic processes in the real world. That phrase just never even appears on the far distant horizon. But during that formal hearing that phrase impressed those present to an inordinate degree.
In medical-legal trials the term of art is
You have already gleaned the average scientific knowledge level of most attorneys, which is close to nil.
Thanks for this bit of insight.
From time to time my daughter "brings me up to speed" on some aspects of her profession. Fortunately for my sanity, she was one of those kids that felt comfortable correcting her H.S. science teacher. He didn't like it but she really benefited from those interactions.
As a professor I have never been able to understand why my "peers" didn't like to be corrected. I suppose some are just too insecure.
Kick-ass, PriceRip.
Love the image of the district director discovering you with a display in the back of the room. Inspiring!
Have not had good experiences at our local community board. Reminded me of a 16th century Italian fiefdom. Was all a charade, both times the issues being discussed were fait accompli, though the majority audience was not in favor. No wonder everything in NYC is a boondoggle to real estate developers. They own the place.
From the Intercept, here's Naomi Klein with “FEAR CITY” EXPLORES HOW DONALD TRUMP EXPLOITED THE NEW YORK DEBT CRISIS TO BOOST HIS OWN FORTUNE (sorry for the block letters, copied and pasted).
"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:
THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"
- Kurt Vonnegut
16th century Italian fiefdom
I love the mental image and think of it as a Monty Python sketch ...
Kearney has transformed from a small town to a moderately sized city during the past 37 years. Surprisingly, the city council has become more rather than less responsive to the majority and the "good ol' boys" network has diminished in value somewhat. This trend will reverse in the future, of this I am certain.
As a measure of this change I can contrast the councils actions regarding the Sports Center mentioned in this comment with the way they handled a proposal to create a waste recycling center more recently. Maybe I should write up an article about that process.
Years ago, for some reason, I went to a Town Board meeting
And had near-downhill neighbors asking for a speed limit reduction on the stretch of a county highway in front of them. Wrong Board. Months later, the entire family of 4 was murdered in the house. Right around Christmas.
Paranoia around here, turns out I had seen the murderer on his way on a bicyle, snow and subzero. I still have PTSD, things got worse.
edit for misspleddings.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.