What could happen this week

Submitted by gjohnsit on Sat, 04/22/2017 - 4:29pm

Five weeks ago Jean-Luc Mélenchon was in fifth place and polling at 12%.
Today's he's what The Economist calls "The nightmare option".

In economic terms, investors would be faced with an unpalatable choice. Ms Le Pen has talked of reviving the French franc, and redenominating government bonds in that currency; an effective default. Mr Mélenchon wants a salary cap, a 32-hour working week, a retirement age of 60, nationalisation, to leave NATO and renegotiate EU treaties. Polls suggest Mr Mélenchon would beat Ms Le Pen (one poll has him winning 57% to 43%), not least because he lacks her racist views. Success for either candidate would immediately lead to another EU crisis that might be even greater than 2011-2012; France is a core member of the union.

Ack! Socialism! How horrifying!
Of course there is another way of looking at it.

The French presidential election is not just about France. It’s an expression of the deep crisis of European politics, the possibility of the Left to represent discontent with the status quo, and the real deficiencies of socialist strategy today...
Mélenchon is obviously a candidacy “out of the framework” of mainstream politics. The dynamic of his campaign is based exactly on the social and political dynamics that the other candidates failed to pay attention to. On the one hand, he has managed to represent the widespread rejection of the aggressive neoliberalism that has been the leitmotif of both the Hollande government, the center-right, and the Macron campaign...It is important to stress that the dynamic of the Mélenchon campaign has also stopped the far right from presenting itself as a protest vote.

Imagine that. An answer to the failures of neoliberalism that isn't from a fake, racist, right-wing populist.
Melenchon has the same advantage that Bernie Sanders had: a big following from the younger generation that makes his campaign seem cool and hip. In Melenchon's case they developed a arcade video game.
Melenchon has benefited more than anyone else from the complete implosion of the center-left Socialist Party.
Melenchon is still a long-shot for tomorrow's election, but nearly 40% of voters have yet to decide on a candidate, so anything is possible.
When in doubt, Blame Russia.
Not surprisingly, TOP likes the neoliberal Macron.

At the end of the week another important event could happen - a federal government shutdown.

The White House ordered federal agencies Friday to began preparations for a potential partial government shutdown after signaling President Donald Trump would demand money for key priorities in legislation to continue funding the government beyond April 29...
The push to reach an agreement on spending is complicated by White House efforts to try again for a House vote on replacing Obamacare next week, crowding the congressional schedule with two politically thorny measures the same week.
House approval of an Obamacare repeal would give the president a legislative victory to boast about before his 100th day in office April 29. But failure to reach an agreement on spending legislation would risk marring the anniversary with a government shutdown.

Some say the chances of a government shutdown are 50/50.
I wouldn't give it that high of odds, but the markets have priced in near zero chances of a shutdown, and that's far too low.

U.S. stocks have struggled since the timeline for the Trump administration's pro-growth agenda came into question, but investors appear confident that next week's deadline that could shut down the federal government will not become another market hurdle...
Investors have worried of late that a shift in the Trump administration's focus to foreign policy could further delay legislation already in doubt after a much-heralded healthcare bill sank in Congress a month ago. However, options activity shows little concern that legislation could suffer even more over a shutdown.
The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, an options-based measure of how much traders are willing to pay for protection against a sudden drop in the S&P 500 .SPX, shows little fear over a near-term shock to stocks.

A Melenchon win, or a government shutdown will leave the market open to panic selling.

Tags:

France

melenchon

Vote

Comments

Submitted by Strife Delivery on Sat, 04/22/2017 - 4:35pm

Tapering Off?

Just looking at the graph...

No sorry, had to zoom in. I was wondering if the graph was starting to taper off or not for Melenchon. Still seems to be a positive, upward slant, so that is good to me.

Cause as mentioned, you have a leftist insurgence trying to break from the status quo, the status quo itself, and then a right insurgence trying to break from the status quo. History shows that people will take one of the two, they will move from the status quo, and sometimes to disastrous effect.

Submitted by Steven D on Sat, 04/22/2017 - 7:38pm

I have only one question

@Strife Delivery Do they use electronic voting machines in France. If so, he has no shot.

If not ....

—

"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Submitted by divineorder on Sat, 04/22/2017 - 9:40pm

Heh.

@Steven D

I think this is the French candidates compared to the American ones.
Le Pen=Trump
Melenchon=Stein
Macron=Clinton
Fillon=Cruz
Hamon=Sanders

— ABC Roosevelt (@ABCRoosevelt) April 23, 2017

—

A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 11:58am

The neoliberal center-left could simply vanish

@divineorder link

There are no certainties, but barring all other candidates “dropping from a nasty virus”, as one political analyst put it, Benoît Hamon is facing a crushing defeat in the first round, ending his leadership dreams and putting the future of the country’s Socialist party (PS) in question.
In a decline that mirrors that of Britain’s Labour party, the PS is facing years in a political desert, if it survives. If Hamon finishes last among the leading candidates, as polls predict, the party’s only hope of salvaging a thread of power will lie in winning enough parliamentary seats in the legislative elections that follow to form an influential group in the national assembly. Even then it will most likely be part of a coalition rather than a fully functioning opposition.
Even worse, and even more unthinkable, if leftwing voters turn en masse to Jean-Luc Mélenchon as their best hope of a place in the second round against the frontrunners – independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen or the conservative François Fillon – and Hamon polls less than 5%, none of Hamon’s campaign expenses will be reimbursed, bankrupting the PS.

“Under 5% and the situation is really catastrophic,” Marc-Olivier Padis, of the Paris-based thinktank Terra Nova, told the Observer. “And it’s possible. We are hearing many socialists wondering if they should vote Mélenchon or Macron. The only thing that can save the party in this election is if enough socialists vote for Hamon out of loyalty.”

Submitted by Arrow on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 11:41am

Paper ballots

@Steven D Hey Steven D. The French use paper ballots exclusively. They are cast in a clear plastic ballot box so everyone can see that a vote is properly cast. There is a paper trail for every vote.

—

I want a Pony!

Submitted by Song of the lark on Sat, 04/22/2017 - 7:58pm

Ahhh Paris...

City of light....Not what it used to be. As for the Markets, eh.. Shorts have been getting killed for 3 years most recently the TRUMP monkey hammer...and yet I thought I saw that the Smart Money was record short of late. We are headed for a bonfire for sure. Between theory and practice it's the timing? Has the long in tooth bull market since 2009 about to be slain. We surely have a crazy, ragged old bull elephant trampling the veld grass up and down Pennsylvannia ave. Oh, the humanity!

Submitted by divineorder on Sat, 04/22/2017 - 10:36pm

Interesting....

Mélenchon's Plan B shows that he has learned from Syriza's capitulation - and offers hope for Europe's left. https://t.co/ADajYnr5JI

— Jacobin (@jacobinmag) April 22, 2017

—

A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 12:19am

Very nice essay

I have two questions:

1. Is the French mainstream media, if they have one which is controlled by neoliberal, screaming about "The RUSSIANS" 24/7?

2. Where can I buy an Obama is a douchebag T-shirt?

Mercí

Submitted by Ellen North on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 3:22am

@Alligator Ed

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed

If you can't find any Obama is a douchebag t-shirts, there's a promising cottage industry opportunity for some small businessperson! He was still better than Clinton would have been, though. As still is Trump. FSM help the world... Edit: preferably while it and we are still here.

—

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Submitted by eyo on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 4:13am

Who determines French elections, the voters?

Do they still have a functioning democracy, or is it same all over? I wonder what difference it makes. There I go again with "what's the point?" I should probably have a handy link to my existential nihilism comment and vid, it's a valid philosophy in my view. Also, that French documentary about Goldman Sachs that was eye opening. ai yi yi.

another EU crisis

Isn't the EU under control of the oligarchy? I thought they were the ones to be rid of, but maybe it is simply the content that needs to change, and not the framework itself. Huh! That sounds familiar. Never mind, please proceed.

Thanks

Submitted by gjohnsit on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 10:37am

Philippe Poutou

@eyo link

He left the corruption scandal-plagued Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front speechless. He made the nepotism-tarred center-right candidate, François Fillon, grin frigidly, murmuring about a lawsuit. And from the immaculately groomed television anchors he drew only condescending fixed smiles.
It took barely over a minute for Philippe Poutou, a balding and unkempt Ford factory mechanic from Bordeaux running as a fringe candidate in France’s presidential election, to puncture the mutually protective world of the race’s mainstream. Afterward television commentators tut-tutted about his “lack of respect.” That was exactly Mr. Poutou’s point.
...
Ms. Le Pen, a supposed “outsider” candidate from a populist party, has refused to answer a police summons, invoking “parliamentary immunity.”

That angered Mr. Poutou. He didn’t bother with honorifics or first names — another sore point for the offended television commentators.

“And then we’ve got Le Pen, next to me, Le Pen, dipping into the public purse,” Mr. Poutou said. “It’s not here, it’s Europe, and now for somebody who is anti-European, the worst is that the National Front, which calls itself anti-system, it doesn’t give a damn. It protects itself thanks to the laws of the system, thanks to parliamentary immunity, and so refuses to answer a police summons.”

Then he scored what was acknowledged as the evening’s bull’s-eye, aimed squarely at Ms. Le Pen: “When we workers are summoned by the police, we don’t have worker’s immunity. Sorry about that. There it is. Here we go,” Mr. Poutou said.

He didn’t look as if he was joking. The studio audience burst into applause. Ms. Le Pen, visibly flustered, was left uncharacteristically silent.
..
Revelations that a political fixer recently bought him two fine suits for over $13,000 at one of Paris’s fanciest tailors have not helped. Mr. Fillon’s image of probity has been shattered, and his platform of austerity for France is the object of ridicule.

“Fillon. Right. He’s sitting across the room from me,” Mr. Poutou began. His target shifted uneasily in his seat, a tight smile on his face. “Nothing but revelations,” Mr. Poutou continued. “The more one digs, the more one smells corruption and cheating, and then, it’s these fine folk who explain to us that we need rigor, austerity, and all the while dipping into the public purse.”

Le Monde heard Mr. Fillon mutter furiously, “I’m going to sock you with a damn lawsuit, you.”

Afterward, the television commentators in Paris sniffed. “I don’t think Philippe Poutou deserves any honors,” said Anna Cabana, an analyst on BFMTV. “He acted very disrespectfully.”

Submitted by Strife Delivery on Sun, 04/23/2017 - 1:57pm

Medal

@gjohnsit Give that man a medal.

Also, guess it is now between Le Pen and Macron? Bleh

#5 link He left the corruption scandal-plagued Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front speechless. He made the nepotism-tarred center-right candidate, François Fillon, grin frigidly, murmuring about a lawsuit. And from the immaculately groomed television anchors he drew only condescending fixed smiles. It took barely over a minute for Philippe Poutou, a balding and unkempt Ford factory mechanic from Bordeaux running as a fringe candidate in France’s presidential election, to puncture the mutually protective world of the race’s mainstream. Afterward television commentators tut-tutted about his “lack of respect.” That was exactly Mr. Poutou’s point. ... Ms. Le Pen, a supposed “outsider” candidate from a populist party, has refused to answer a police summons, invoking “parliamentary immunity.” That angered Mr. Poutou. He didn’t bother with honorifics or first names — another sore point for the offended television commentators. “And then we’ve got Le Pen, next to me, Le Pen, dipping into the public purse,” Mr. Poutou said. “It’s not here, it’s Europe, and now for somebody who is anti-European, the worst is that the National Front, which calls itself anti-system, it doesn’t give a damn. It protects itself thanks to the laws of the system, thanks to parliamentary immunity, and so refuses to answer a police summons.” Then he scored what was acknowledged as the evening’s bull’s-eye, aimed squarely at Ms. Le Pen: “When we workers are summoned by the police, we don’t have worker’s immunity. Sorry about that. There it is. Here we go,” Mr. Poutou said. He didn’t look as if he was joking. The studio audience burst into applause. Ms. Le Pen, visibly flustered, was left uncharacteristically silent. .. Revelations that a political fixer recently bought him two fine suits for over $13,000 at one of Paris’s fanciest tailors have not helped. Mr. Fillon’s image of probity has been shattered, and his platform of austerity for France is the object of ridicule. “Fillon. Right. He’s sitting across the room from me,” Mr. Poutou began. His target shifted uneasily in his seat, a tight smile on his face. “Nothing but revelations,” Mr. Poutou continued. “The more one digs, the more one smells corruption and cheating, and then, it’s these fine folk who explain to us that we need rigor, austerity, and all the while dipping into the public purse.” Le Monde heard Mr. Fillon mutter furiously, “I’m going to sock you with a damn lawsuit, you.” Afterward, the television commentators in Paris sniffed. “I don’t think Philippe Poutou deserves any honors,” said Anna Cabana, an analyst on BFMTV. “He acted very disrespectfully.”