@gjohnsit revolving around "deals". Just winging it.

#1 link

In his first call as president with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump denounced a treaty that caps U.S. and Russian deployment of nuclear warheads as a bad deal for the United States, according to two U.S. officials and one former U.S. official with knowledge of the call.

When Putin raised the possibility of extending the 2010 treaty, known as New START, Trump paused to ask his aides in an aside what the treaty was, these sources said.

Trump then told Putin the treaty was one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration, saying that New START favored Russia

@PriceRip Although the math escapes me (my calculus skills having evaporated into the ether > 50 years ago), the outcome and pre-conditions are clearly stated. I suppose the scale of n must be much greater than required for traffic-flow analysis.

One practical issue arises in my reptilian brain.

While it is impossible to predict the motion of a single molecule in a gas, it is easy to predict the mass action of a gas to a high level of accuracy.

The provocateurs of social actions may, contrary to the level of impossibility to predict the motion of a single molecule (i.e., human), have a directed plan in place to in a goal-directed manner, individual humans in a specific purposeful motion. What, then, would this do the hypothesis you proferred?

By the way, elements of cultural ideational transmission I think do represent an application of the paradigm you outlined.

By the way, would the aforementioned "mule" refer to our typical DemonRATs?

#2
Quoting from Psychohistory_(fictional)
          Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events.

          Developed by Hari Seldon, Psychohistory is analogous to the Kinetic Theory of Gasses: While it is impossible to predict the motion of a single molecule in a gas, it is easy to predict the mass action of a gas to a high level of accuracy. To apply this technique to a human population two conditions must be met:

1. The population whose behavior is modeled must be sufficiently large.
2. The population must be ignorance of the application of psychohistorical analyses.

          It has (over the years) become increasingly clear that these conflicts are not really about definable objectives or fundamental principles. These conflicts are about "egos" and "perception" in their most debased incarnations. The initiators (instigators ?) have no real interest in the various conflicts, and merely skim profits when the opportunity arises. They individually and collectively play the role of the Mule as the Seldon Plan experiences deviations in excess of .5 through 10 sigma. Like the Mule's actions current conditions suggest a chaotic regime has been entered and future oscillations will become even more nonlinear. Stochastic we can deal with, chaotic, not so much. I suggest direct intervention is required.

          End Trans: and remember condition (2): no one must know we are watching · · ·

@PriceRip

          I suppose the scale of n must be much greater than required for traffic-flow analysis.

          This I think is most certainly the case if for no other reason than the goals and objectives of the "subjects" in the Traffic-Flow case are few and very specific. The Computational Complexity Class for the Political / Conflict Outcomes case is in the power polynomial range. This is the primary reason Isaac Asimov's foundation series is still science fiction.

          The provocateurs of social actions may, contrary to the level of impossibility to predict the motion of a single molecule (i.e., human), have a directed plan in place to in a goal-directed manner, individual humans in a specific purposeful motion. What, then, would this do the hypothesis you proferred?

          Manipulating individuals to commit specific acts is relatively trivial and subject to the usual constraints and uncertainties. The response of the population at the mesoscale represents the "small number" problem for the technique, the calculational complexity (as stated above) is the barrier to implementation for the entire system.

          By the way, would the aforementioned "mule" refer to our typical DemonRATs?

          "The Mule" refers to those consciously manipulating the system. "Our typical DemonRATs" are the "atoms" in the model.

          As mentioned above this is all science fiction except for one glaring exception. · · · In the world of finance, Computational Capacity has reached the point that sub-second trading is quite easy. This disastrous development has provided new avenues for exploiting the system during a time regulatory agents have neither the authority nor the hardware to properly monitor this sort of activity.

#2
Quoting from Psychohistory_(fictional)
          Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events.

          Developed by Hari Seldon, Psychohistory is analogous to the Kinetic Theory of Gasses: While it is impossible to predict the motion of a single molecule in a gas, it is easy to predict the mass action of a gas to a high level of accuracy. To apply this technique to a human population two conditions must be met:

1. The population whose behavior is modeled must be sufficiently large.
2. The population must be ignorance of the application of psychohistorical analyses.

          It has (over the years) become increasingly clear that these conflicts are not really about definable objectives or fundamental principles. These conflicts are about "egos" and "perception" in their most debased incarnations. The initiators (instigators ?) have no real interest in the various conflicts, and merely skim profits when the opportunity arises. They individually and collectively play the role of the Mule as the Seldon Plan experiences deviations in excess of .5 through 10 sigma. Like the Mule's actions current conditions suggest a chaotic regime has been entered and future oscillations will become even more nonlinear. Stochastic we can deal with, chaotic, not so much. I suggest direct intervention is required.

          End Trans: and remember condition (2): no one must know we are watching · · ·