The pipelines will RAISE gasoline prices - best argument to use?

Turns out the pipelines will actually raise gasoline prices 10 to 20 cents per gallon in the Midwest and Rockies, according to both Bloomberg and CNN - maybe that's the best argument to make to Trump? It would give him political cover to do the right thing, plus save us another expense in the short run.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/why-keystone-pipeline-will-actu...

The reasoning is laid out in the article. Interesting. I remember one environmentalist (but alas not his name, Peter xxx) who was very successful and said the key was to always put it in monetary terms, how the environmental good was financially beneficial - to us, not to Canada.

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riverlover's picture

products from Canada go to the US. That was never the intent. Ship to refineries near ports and ship it off to China. Or somewhere petro-product poor. All the ME wars and Squabbles, since we cannot talk of multiple wars are pipeline-related and also flaming the fans of centuries-old tribal squabbles.

Trudeau has morphed into Harper with approval of the Trans-Canada pipeline. Owners are only interested in ROI.

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CB's picture

@riverlover
refineries running at full capacity (refineries can only run either full on or full off). Most of the American refineries have coker units and do not perform well with the lighter domestic oils and very poorly with the light distillates that come from fracking. This is a legacy of the pre-fracking years when the world oil supplies were getting heavier. Tens of billions (a large percentage of which was taxpayers money) had been invested in these coking refineries to prepare for that. Then the fracking boom hit the US oil market and completely fucked with the industry. Lucky for them they had prepared the tar sands which were coming on line at the time.

First and foremost you have to understand oil is a fungible product but only to a certain extent as shown above.

The US is still a net importer of oil. On a per capita basis world wide, it is a pig. Its consumption is about 20 million bbl/day followed by China at 12 million bbl/day. The US population is 325 million compared to 1,400 million Chinese. Do the math. In addition, the US consumes 20% of the Chinese exports. This crap takes a lot of hydrocarbons to manufacture.

There are many souls out there still who think the petro products from Canada go to the US. That was never the intent. Ship to refineries near ports and ship it off to China.

The US is still a net importer of crude oil at 4.7MMb/d. Here's the breakdown:

Oil imports:

  1. Canada - 2.81MMb/d
  2. Saudi Arabia - 1.06MMb/d
  3. Venezuela - 0.75MMb/d
  4. Mexico 0.07MMb/d
  5. Columbia 0.22MMb/d

Oil exports:

  1. Canada - 0.96MMb/d
  2. Mexico - 0.69MMb/d
  3. Netherlands - 0.23MMb/d
  4. China - 0.19MMb/d
  5. Brazil - 0.19MMb/d

Much of the oil sold to Canada are the light distillates. The US has an oversupply, produced from fracking natural gas. These distillates then come back to the US mixed at 30% with the heavy Canadian oil to allow it to be pumped and refined in coker units.

This is a cocktail made in hades. Two shitty products that can be mixed to make a fortune and destroy the earth. The massive amounts of leftover petcoke are exported:

  1. India 6.2 million bbl/month
  2. China 2 million bbl/month
  3. Japan 1.8 million bbl/month
  4. Spain 1.6 million bbl/month

This shit is the world's dirtiest CO2 producer and the US produces 20 million bbl/month of petcoke and ships the crap all over the world. The Koch Brothers make a fortune selling it to foreign nations because it is illegal to burn in US coal plants. The US simply moves it offshore to pass the buck to someone else. Maybe the coker refineries should be required to sequester their poisons and not make a profit?

Now, where does all this oil going to the Gulf Refineries go to? The US is the world's largest exporter of refined oil exports at $74.7 billion, 12.3% of world total.

U.S. Exports Record Level Of Refined Products

U.S. refiners continue to expand their footprint, exporting record volumes of product abroad. The U.S. refining complex exported nearly 4 million barrels per day of gasoline, distillates and propane, helped by operational issues in refineries in Latin America.
...
It is not clear that the situation will last. China is increasing its exports to Latin America, a level of competition that could make it difficult for U.S. refiners. “As they process more crude and they saturate the Asian markets, I expect that some of their products will make their way over to Central and South America,” Lipow told Bloomberg. Also, Mexico just moved to liberalize gasoline prices, which will necessarily lead to price increases. Higher prices at the pump will likely put a dent in demand.

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effects already yet this scientific fact gains you nothing in an argument to keep the biosphere healthy for living things. We are in the 6th great extinction event in the earth's history but zilch is the response from Obama & Trump down through the political ranks to the media.

So if the argument that these pipelines is going to cost people 25 cents more per gallon gets their attention, let's use it.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

riverlover's picture

@duckpin
formulations co$t more, because the ratio of EtOH to petrol has to change, seasonally, at least that has been the propaganda in the NE. See how one can be sucked inside, feeling virtue that all this is envioronmentally-negative, 'cause we are all drive not-gas-guzzlers and turn off our LEDs at night.

There will be many dissappointeds. But mostly the virtuous ones who had no Power to gain any knowledge other than government propadanga. I am attempting to greet all my friends who fall off that bounds. But we must engage the 99%.

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@riverlover I'll take your word on the gasoline seasonal formula - I was unaware it had to change.

We do need to keep talking about this. I was told once by someone in the advertising industry that usually a person needs to hear/see a message 7 times before he/she will act on it. I wonder how many times a message has to be repeated to overcome lies from Big Petro and their allies in the power structure?

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

riverlover's picture

@duckpin
Who relies on people for food. And obeying to be approved. The shit is about to hit the fan. I am semi-prepared, but need more dog food.

My 900' driveway was plowed this AM. Not frozen so stone base moves. But I got an escape, in my dirty car to buy more Na.

We sense that millions person marches will not be enough now.

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CB's picture

It even comes before the Second Amendment.

The US has the 3rd cheapest gasoline in the world based on percentage of daily wages:
1 Venezuela - 0.95%
2 Kuwait - 1.27%
3 USA - 1.64%
9 Canada - 2.96%
10 Norway - 3.40%

Here's the least affordable:
1 India - 80.20%
2 Pakistan - 56.71%

The whole fucking world subsidizes the American way of life. It will take 5 earths for everyone in the world to live like an American.

The US floods the world with its dollars created entirely out of thin air and receives most of the world's resources (per capita) in return. The only thing that keeps the game going is the massive US military. That is why the US has to spend over half of its discretionary budget spending on the world's largest killing machine. Meanwhile, the US is slowly rotting from the inside. Trump is just a pustule on the rotting carcass.

The world isn't pissed off at us for our 'freedoms'. It's pissed off at us for our greed. For our homes and pockets filled with the valuable resources we traded our green paper trinkets for. I cannot think of one single major violent altercation going on in the world not primarily created and fueled by socioeconomic disparity. We have reached a new low where 8 people now have more of the world's wealth than the bottom 50%.

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Bisbonian's picture

Well said. The question is...where on the carcass?

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

CB's picture

@Bisbonian

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CB's picture

ZeroHedge link and found a large number of anomalies. Slocums ideas have not proved correct historically.

There's an error that is important because the entire article is based on the disparity between WTI oil prices at Cushing and world prices as represented by Brent oil.

Obama fast tracked the southern portion of the Keystone pipeline that went from Cushing to the Gulf in his first term. This immediately relieved the Cushing backlog and the price of WTI rose closer to Brent almost immediately.

From the link:

as prices hinged on the price of U.S. crude oil, set daily in a small town in Cushing, Oklahoma – the largest oil-storage hub in the country. Today, gasoline prices instead track the price of a type of oil found in the North Sea called Brent crude. And Brent crude, it so happens, trades at a premium to U.S. oil by around $20 a barrel.

Here's the current figures. You can see them merging. The difference will be the cost of pumping to the coast.
2015 2016 2017 2018
WTI
48.67 43.33 52.50 55.18
Brent
52.32 43.74 53.50 56.18

Brent stopped trading at a large premium to WTI the moment the Keystone south went into operation as you can see. At the same time, American production started to skyrocket and light oil imports from world markets fell off the cliff. This, plus other factors such as the world economy and higher production from other countries caused oil prices to drop drastically. The cost of gasoline in the US is now about what it was in 2005.

I would suggest not using the cost of gasoline as the reason to stop the tar sands. Cheap gasoline is what got us into this predicament in the first place. The public has to fully understand what the true cost of hydrocarbons are.

The US needs to increase taxes on fuels to pay for the infrastructure that these fuels are expended on. Or, like the majority of the oil rich countries in the world, are state owned and use the money for the common good (some in better ways than others). Why should the country's inherent wealth such as clean water, wind, solar and minerals be abused or owned by a few wealthy individuals? The US is capitalism on steroids and it will eventually destroy the country unless brought under control.

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@CB

not our (powerless and abused) public. If an argument would make sense to him, I think we should use it.

This one fits into his America First theme, too. We don't benefit (except for a few temporary jobs) and we risk our aquifers and land - and on top of that, WE PAY MORE, all for a Canadian company's profits.

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CB's picture

@Sunspots
Most of the money for the initial development of the tar sands came from US corporations and investors. Due to US government policy in the expectation of the world's oil supply getting heavier, tens of billions were invested in coking refineries. Now, the heavy Canadian oil is absolutely required to keep most US refineries working at maximum efficiency.

The massive amount of new fracked oil and gas was unexpected. This has created an overabundant supply of condensates which can be used as diluent to the tar sands. Every barrel of tar sands oil coming into the US contains 30% of this American diluent.

American companies like the Koch brothers own most of the tar sands.

Majority of oil sands ownership and profits are foreign, says analysis
More than two-thirds of all oil sands production in Canada is owned by foreign entities, sending a majority of the industry’s profits out of the country, says a new analysis released Thursday by a British Columbia-based conservation group.

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mhagle's picture

UPDATE 1-Magellan Midstream shuts Iowa pipeline after 3,300-bbls diesel spill

http://www.reuters.com/article/pipeline-operations-magellan-mids-iowa-id...

This is less than 10 miles from my family farm in Iowa. The reports say it is in Hanlontown, but if you link to the map below you can see it is really right next to Joice, Iowa. And you can see it is next to the Hanlontown Slough Waterfowl Protection area and Willow Creek. Willow Creek Runs into the Winnebago River, which runs into the Shell Rock River, which flows into the Iowa River, which runs into the Mississippi River. They might be masking the true location because this part of Iowa is where Governor Terry Branstad grew up. He was my next door neighbor when I was a teenager. I have not read any articles that talk about the farmer who has been totally fucked by this. They are removing the oil and the contaminated soil. Wow. Spring crops? Governor Branstad might know this farmer. He was our local attorney before he went into politics.

http://www.openscreenshot.com/rkhbGaUvx

There is no way that this is not causing major ecological damage.

Ironically, this is in the middle of the Top of Iowa Wind Farm.

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

CB's picture

@mhagle
There are 2.4 million miles of energy (gas,oil) pipelines in the US, 72,000 miles of it for crude oil.
http://www.pipeline101.com/where-are-pipelines-located

During Obama's two terms, the equivalent of 10 Keystone XL pipelines have been built, some of them even crossing the US/CAN border.

The problem is NOT pipelines. The problem is the US slurping up more and more oil every year. A new record was set last summer. 9.7 million barrels per day - over 1 gallon for every man, woman and child in the country. When is that going to stop? It will only stop when Americans start paying what the rest of the world does.

The American lifestyle is killing the earth. It would take 5 earths for everyone in the world to live like an American.

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