I don't think Turkey is bluffing

From the late 16th Century to the early 20th Century, Ottomans and Russia fought 12 wars, of which Ottomans only won two of them outright. Three were fought to draws, while Russia won all the rest.
Starting with the rise of the Safavid Empire in Iran in 1501, the Sunni Ottomans and Shia Safavids fought eleven bitter wars, of which the Ottomans won five.

Given that history, it's hard to imagine Turkey building alliances with Russia and Iran.
Yet that is exactly what appears to be happening.
Yesterday it was Turkey and Russia.

Turkey has called on Russia to carry out joint operations against Islamic State (IS) militants in Syria, after crucial talks between President Vladimir Putin and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan aimed at ending the crisis.

Today it was Turkey and Iran.

At a joint news conference on Friday in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said the two neighbouring nations have agreed to "keep closer contact" on the issue of the "territorial integrity of Syria".

Also yesterday, Turkey has decided to do the unforgiveable - go "off-dollar" (google translate)

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, revitalize Russia relations St. On his return visit to St. Petersburg, Putin's interview date it assessed the implications for Turkey. Erdogan stated that the positive results of the Let 's reach agreement, "of course will have positive repercussions. You know, the dollar fell below three. Only now it dropped below three dollars for the trip. We talked about something today. We said; So shopping is even more useful if we make the ruble and Turkish lira. It's a case such as dollar falls further. The currency printing, we can get rid of the currency printing.

Without a doubt, Turkey has gone "off script", so much so that NATO allies are starting to get nervous.
Turkey is edging away from NATO

Turkey may seek other options outside NATO for defense industry cooperation, although its first option is always cooperation with its NATO allies, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday.

Consider these recent headlines.
Air Force relationships with Turkey a concern in wake of coup attempt

Erdogan also accused Army Gen. Joseph Votel, the head of U.S. Central Command, of "siding with coup plotters," a charge Votel denied

Why would Erdogan say that? Because coup planes took off from Incirlik.
Turkey Is No Longer a Reliable Ally

These days, however, the U.S. and Turkey see eye to eye on very little. The two countries are at odds over Syria and the urgency of removing Syrian President Bashar Assad; over support for Syrian Kurds who, in contrast to the Turks, have proved to be reliable U.S. partners in the fight against Islamic State; over the territorial sovereignty of Iraq; and over continuing sanctions on Iran.

Op-Ed Let's get our nuclear weapons out of Turkey

There are no do-overs in history, but there are lessons. The 1979 hostage crisis should have taught us the importance of proactively responding to obvious threats and removing vulnerable targets — a lesson that should be applied now if there are U.S. nuclear weapons based in Turkey.

EU rift with Turkey deepens

Austria has threatened to use its veto to block further talks on Turkish membership of the European Union, deepening the stand-off with Ankara over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on democratic freedoms.
The move could jeopardise the EU’s controversial migrant deal. Turkey has already threatened to pull out of the agreement, potentially sending hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers to Europe.

Does everyone see a pattern forming here?
The elites in the press and in Washington are taking this seriously, as well they should.
Without Turkey, overthrowing Assad will be nearly impossible.
Without Turkey, isolating and threatening Russia will be much harder.
Without Turkey, NATO stops at Europe.
Without Turkey, the U.S. Empire is put in a tough spot.

That's not to say Turkey can just reject its subordinate role without serious consequences.

The biggest threat from an escalation of conflict with the West would be a blow to Turkey's extremely fragile balance of payments.
Adding its $30bn current account deficit and $180bn foreign currency debt which comes due within a year, Turkey needs new foreign capital equal to roughly 28 percent of its GDP - one of the highest ratios among developing nations. That means it needs to borrow roughly $210bn a year to stay solvent.
That foreign capital comes almost entirely as loans, short-term bonds or "hot money", which is capital invested in Turkish lira denominated bonds and equities. And almost all of these funds originate from Western banks or funds.
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proclaiming, "Turkey has invaded again" to much hoopla. Yes, it was a real danger for a couple of centuries.

I think Turkey, for whatever reason, leaving NATO is a plus for efforts at world peace. Forming a mutual aid pact with Russia would also probably be positive in this regard too.

Not so long ago an American president promised Russia that NATO would not organize up to Russia's borders. That promise didn't last 5 years and Russia is trying to keep neutral, if not friendly, countries as neighbors.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

genocide and with this in mind I fear for the Kurds.

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the Kurds have consolidated much of their territory and Turkey will be making a mistake to engage them.

The Kurds were sold out by Kissinger and then sold out again by another administration if memory serves.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

"Nice country you got there.Be a shame if something happened to it."

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Solidarity

...is that if they need loans or foreign direct investment, I'm sure China, and to a lesser extent Russia would be more than happy to seize the opportunity to help out. Western banks do not have the virtually monopoly on international lending they did maybe 30 years ago...

The thing for Turkey was they wanted into the EU quite earnestly but kept getting the message that the Northerners didn't want them.

After a while the insults start to get rather tiresome.

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James Kroeger

Would the Chinese risk destabilizing export trade with the EU at approx. 430B euros for the sake of Turkey at 25B dollars or even Russia at 50B dollars.Not to mention exports to the US at another 430B.(2014 numbers)

There's no question that China is an emerging alternative center of gravity financially but the Chinese have traditionally pursued a conservative,low profile foreign policy outside their immediate sphere of influence.Would it really serve Chinese interests to support financially needy and apparently politically unstable Turkey?The only real beneficiary would be Russia,and a more influential Russia might not be seen as a positive outcome in Beijing.

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Solidarity

If the corporate masters of the US government/military are setting up for a 'limited' nuclear 'war' with Russia and China, doesn't it behoove them to band together with other non-corporate-captured countries to protect themselves against the global hostile corporate takeover in process and cheating like crazy to get their puppets in place to enact this, using the military and resources of involved countries corporate assets to invade/attack those refusing to be economically subjugated and drained?

Why should still-free countries wait to be picked off one at a time by psychopathic corporate managers such as the Clintons or ignorant and greedy psychopathic billionaires such as Trump, who will do whatever he figures will further enrich himself?

Yet people are refusing to vote Green against both evils because 'they aren't well organized/experienced' - as are the political mafia...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

...that what you describe did exist.The Soviet union,Warsaw Pact nations,Red China,and the non-aligned nations including India and many countries,often newly liberated colonies,in Africa and Latin America served as a counterbalance to US imperialism.Of course that all fell apart with the collapse of the Soviet Union and China's adoption of state sponsored capitalism.

If China's economic fortunes continue to rise in the future perhaps a new alternative will arise but for the immediate future I think they're still dependent on trade relationships with the US,EU axis.

There's no question that just about everyone is fed up with US bullying hegemony.Unfortunately without some overarching principle like international socialism to bind them together too many countries are consumed with their own regional rivalries.

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Solidarity

Sandino's picture

do they need the export markets more than the export markets, whose manufacturing centers have been slowly gutted and offshored, need them? Swapping some of Turkey's foreign debt from dollars to yuan would be a good way to reduce their dependence on the dollar exchange rate, and give them some leverage in case the Clinton 'October surprise' should land in the South China Sea.

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...which could make Turkey a major entry point of Chinese goods into Europe.

A new twist to the Great Game with China as the dealer?

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Solidarity

own currencies was discussed but not yet agreed to. Turkey still backs the jihadis formerly called al-Nusra, so all in all I'd be reluctant to guess where Turkey ends up.

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Orwell: Where's the omelette?

is a close observer of all things Kremlin, and has this to say:

"Officials on the Russian and Turkish sides, and their staffs, have already made clear there are four strategic points on the agenda of Russian-Turkish negotiations; one political corollary; and several commercial payoffs.

"...The priority is the commitment from Turkey to stop attempts at regime change in Syria, the Russian Caucasus, and the CIS states, including Armenia and Tajikistan. This means the expulsion of Chechen fighters from their havens in Turkey and areas under Turkish control; closure of the Turkish-Syrian border for ISIS and other jihadis; and an end to Turkish support for the Azeri war against Armenia and for Islamic oppositionists in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Crimea.

"In return, the Turks want a Russian commitment not to support Kurdish groups to establish territorial autonomies or statelets along Turkey’s borders with Syria and Iraq, nor encourage the Kurds to fight their way back into Turkey to establish an independent Kurdistan."

There's much more of interest at the site.

I don't know, but in lieu of stronger evidence to the contrary, I'm inclined to assume that bluffing is exactly what Erdogan is doing. He is after all very good at it. Even after his meeting with Putin, he reiterated strongly that Turkey will never accept an Assad-ruled Syria. That's a deal-breaker for Putin. I see Tayyip's latest ploy as being simply another attempt to extort more concessions from the EU/US/NATO axis. And I' be very surprised if Putin takes the bait. All he's done so far is nibble at it.

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native

dervish's picture

just to squeeze more compliance out of the EU and the US. I can't see a complete realignment, although it would be welcome if it occurred... it might mean peace, for a change.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

seems extreme, and stands squarely in the way of any near-term realignment vis a vis Russia and Iran. I have no idea how & why & where this hatred originated... maybe someone here can enlighten me about that?

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native

This has puzzled me. I know that in the early stages of the uprising/coup/shitstorm Erdogan was not on board. He did a 180 after about 6 months. I'm pretty sure Gulf State money was involved. Then once it started, and Turkey pretty much stole half of northern Syria, it was impossible to contemplate a return. Every factory in Aleppo was ripped apart with the equipment going to Turkey. Erdogan's son ran the illicit oil trade.

So how things go forward is going to be interesting. But the Middle East is full of people that can forgive and forget a lot quicker than Washington.

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seems extreme, and stands squarely in the way of any near-term realignment vis a vis Russia and Iran. But yah I agree, it would be good for the cause of world peace if it happened. I have no idea how & why & where this hatred originated... maybe someone here can enlighten me about that?

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native

dervish's picture

Historically there was the Ottoman Caliphate, of which Syria was a part, those memories aren't always fond. Religiously, you have a Sunni majority in Syria, ruled by a secular Alawite, so religious Turks (Erdogan's base) take issue with that. Politically you have the larger KSA vs. Iran power struggle, with Turkey and Syria being on opposite sides due to their alliances.

Most importantly, I think Turkey buys into the neo-con idea of re-shaping Syria, and believes that it will benefit from regime change... pipelines, trade, a friendly Sunni government, cheap oil, etc.

It would be interesting to know what their personal motivations are, beyond what I've mentioned, but of course that's very difficult information to come by.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

to explain it properly. But who talks with Turks these days?

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native

dervish's picture

that he was going to end up like Qaddafi and Hitler, if he didn't step down? There definitely seems to be some personal, visceral conflict there.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Shockwave's picture

But things have changed radically.

Kemal Ataturk must be spinning in his grave

 photo FRANSIZ-GAZETES-LE-MONDEDAN-TAYYP-KARKATUumlRUuml_zpsdtdmncls.jpg

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The political revolution continues

the area was cut up in pieces by the colonial powers

one of the cuts was to put the Kurds in 3 countries

In Afghanistan / Pakistan, there are millions of Pashtuns whose tribes cross the borders between the two countries and were never properly handles and continued to be a source of trouble. As climate change continues, the climate crisis in areas like this will make them even more unstable

The colonial project, in recent years led by the US military with there almost 1,000 bases in the world, and special operations troops in over 130 countries, ... the colonial project has failed, but there is still enough money and power to keep up arms sales and media to hype the threat of terrorism and by the way, did you know that Hillary is running against the crazy Trump?

the grand plan of control of the middle east, and of south Asia, isn't going well

it has failed

but, since we are number 1, we cannot fail!

so we can try harder, send in more drones, pass the TPP for "trade" and continue the empire

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dervish's picture

We won't be able to afford to keep bases open here, let alone abroad.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

If Hillary is elected, she aims to be a "war president". She will ratchet up conflicts everywhere around the world and get into outright shooting wars with a brand new set of enemies. She will use war as the pretext to put in the DLC anti-New Deal policies of Clinton administration version 1. Americans will need to accept austerity to ensure the security of the United States. Right after 9-11, Krugman when he was actually a liberal counter voice to the Bush regime, pointed out that the gop was using 9-11 as an excuse to implement their agenda. Need tax cuts. Why? 9-11.

The Dem lawmakers will not oppose Clinton after they saw what Clinton did to Sanders. I understand Bernie's reason for endorsing her, but at the same time, Bernie's political capitulation will not encourage Dem lawmakers to oppose Clinton.

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Or get a trade-tied loan from China. I'd love to see what Putin does with China in the mix.

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Pluto's Republic's picture

…and complete the Gazprom Blue Stream pipeline that will eclipse Ukraine's role as the primary transit hub supplying gas and oil to Europe. The Blue Stream hub puts Greece back in play, which also enjoys China's partnership in expanding Greece's strategically located ports. The Russian oil pipeline will rebalance the geopolitics of oil to some degree, and start the unwind of the Middle East stranglehold on Europe. It's likely that Blue Stream oil sales will be denominated in Euros, in line with Iran's non-dollar oil borse. Dedollarization of the world economy to modest levels of regional trade is the key to neutralizing American's violent reach for Empire and global supremacy. Eschewing the use of Dollars in non-US trade can also thwart weaponized trade agreements like the TPP and TTIP, that are little more than a two-prong strategy to block the rise of Eurasia and the natural evolution to a more balanced multipolar world order.

greek-pipeline.jpg

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato

From your lips to FSM's cauliflower-garnished ears!

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.