Italy's slow-motion banking system collapse

Few people outside of the financial media are talking about it, but Italy's banks are virtually bankrupt.

Italy is once again in the spotlight. As its banking system undergoes a slow-motion implosion – the country’s banks are weighed down by €360 billion of bad loans, of which €200bn are deemed insolvent – all eyes are now on the Renzi government.

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The inescapable point of Italy's banking crisis is that it can't be contained, only solved. And it can't be solved without fixing Italy's moribund economy.

Much has been said in recent months about the mismanagement of Italian banks: the rampant corruption, fraud, and abuse; the widespread practice of distributing loans to friends and family; the unsavoury ties to politics, etc. There is some truth to this. But it is not the chief cause of the Italian banking crisis, as many commentators have asserted or implied. The crisis is ‘the consequence of the longest and deepest recession in Italy’s history’, as the governor of the Italian central bank, Ignazio Visco, recently stated. As financial journalist Matthew Lynn writes: ‘Italy doesn’t have a banking crisis; it has a euro crisis’.
In macroeconomic terms, Italy has been the hardest hit country in the eurozone after Greece. Its GDP has shrunk by a massive 10 per cent since 2007, regressing to levels of over a decade ago. As a result, around 20 per cent of Italy’s industrial capacity has now been destroyed.

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Banca Monte dei Paschi, founded in 1472, is the oldest lender in the world. BMPS is Italy’s third-largest bank by assets.
It's shares are down 75% on the year, and are now nearly worthless.

Under a stress scenario its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) slumps to negative 2.44%. In other words, the world’s oldest bank is not just insolvent in an adverse scenario; it’s insolvent right now.

BMPS was already bailed out twice.
UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, is in nearly as bad of situation.
The ironic thing is that the destruction of Italy's economy was intentional.

Italy’s endemic structural problems – its supposedly hyper-rigid labour market, its bloated bureaucracy, its excessive tax rates, etc. – are notorious but it’s undeniable that the post-2011 economic collapse is a direct result of the austerity policies implemented by the Monti government in 2011-13 and since, including by the current Renzi government. After all, Monti himself admitted in an interview to CNN that his policies’ aim was ‘to destroy domestic demand through fiscal consolidation’, with the aim of rebalancing Italy’s current account deficit.
On its own terms, the policy worked: private consumption collapsed, imports fell and Italy’s current account deficit was turned into a minor surplus. But in an economy heavily dependent on domestic demand – Italy’s exports account for less than 30 per cent of total output – this was bound to take a very heavy toll. And it did. Just between 2009 and 2013, more than 1.7 million small and medium enterprises (SMEs) were forced to close. This, in turn, inevitably sent shockwaves throughout the banking system, which was and is heavily exposed to SMEs.

The IMF has recently estimated that Italy’s economy will not return to its pre-crisis size until 2025.
Loans aren't performing (i.e. being paid) because no one is making any money.

Italy’s banks are neck-deep in nonperforming loans. Official data puts the total amount of nonperforming loans, or NPLs, at around 200 billion euros ($220.5 billion), or around 8% of total loans (see table above). But some analysts argue that another €160 billion worth of loans could soon be pushed into NPL status, according to Wells Fargo, which would put the NPL ratio at an “eye-popping” 15% of their loan portfolios.

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The critical problem isn't just the danger to Italy needing to exit the Eurozone in order to save itself. The biggest danger is that the rest of the Eurozone banks are barely hanging on themselves, and can't withstand an Italian economic shock.

The market capitalization of Deutsche and Credit Suisse has shrunk so much that they just suffered the ignominy of being ejected from the Euro Stoxx 50, a stock index designed by Deutsche Börse Group that comprises Europe’s 50 largest and most liquid stocks.
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One would think it would behoove all of the Euro countries to do what Iceland did and tell the global bankers to fuck off.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

Handy to have them all in one place.

We need to be talking about a guaranteed minimum living wage. There will continue to be more people than jobs that need doing. This painful ratio will worsen. It's a national and global discussion that urgently needs to happen.

Makes me want to gather a bunch of like-minded people, pool funds, buy fertile land where adequate water isn't likely to be an issue for at least a generation, and work to secure the basics of food, shelter, and camaraderie while that may be possible. Actually, that's all part of the reason I now live in the Willamette Valley.

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"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti

earthling1's picture

are there credit unions in Italy?

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

austerity thing working out? Is it too late to inject stimulus to try to revive? Or are they just gonna let it go? And Then what happens to the rest of Europe? Hang on, it's gonna be a Bumpy ride! Wheeeeeee. . .

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

Brexit isn't helping the economy

The vicious interplay between gathering recession and an enfeebled banking system, then, remains a potent, if arcane, threat to financial and political stability, just as it did a decade ago. The worry is really whether central banks and governments have the capacity to support their weaker banks.

That cannot be assumed.

It is unthinkable, but not impossible, for a major British or European bank to go bust. The £2bn loss reported by majority state-owned RBS last week – a figure that will be largely shouldered by taxpayers – is a stark reminder that the big banks are far from being restored to full strength...

My emphasis.

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.

At this point it's hard to see how the banking system doesn't collapse again. Those of us who said that it would happen again, once we saw the banksters weren't going to jail, will be ignored as usual. The next protests in Zuccotti Park had better bring the guillotine the last ones forgot.

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Please help support caucus99percent!

Dr. Joe is very unhappy his name has become a synonym.

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divineorder's picture

Just stopped over in Switzerland on way back from southern Africa for a few weeks to visit friends.

Swiss consumers, like many others, are probably a bit uneasy about the world we face.

However, they are doing pretty damn well overall in comparison to many.

http://www.reuters.com/article/swiss-economy-consumersentiment-idUSL8N1A...

Markets | Thu Aug 4, 2016 2:59am EDT
Related: Cyclical Consumer Goods, Financials
Swiss consumers stay downbeat despite high worldwide perch
ZURICH | By Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi

The Swiss economy has faced major uncertainty after the Swiss National Bank abandoned an exchange rate cap against the euro in January 2015, causing the Swiss franc to soar and exports to the country's main trading partner to take a hit. But the economy showed unexpected resilience during a "dark year".

Since then, Swiss households have braced for the as-yet unknown impact of Britain's decision to the leave the European Union.

But Swiss households have nonetheless remained some of the world's fittest in financial terms.

In 2015 the World Bank ranked Swiss people second in the world by per capita gross domestic product and third by per capita gross national income, valued at just over $84,000 per head.

In Credit Suisse's 2015 Global Wealth Report, Switzerland held on to its first-place rank and remained the only country whose average adult net worth exceeded $500,000.

While it was also one of the countries with the highest wealth inequality, the report said, median wealth stood at $107,600, making the typical Swiss the sixth best off in the world. Unemployment stood at just 3.3 percent in June.

20160729_073725.jpg Camping on Lake Lucerne by divineorder

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

Hawkfish's picture

That's where my retirement is. They are also one of the few big banks that are profitable without government subsidies (NYT business a few months back).

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Song of the lark's picture

The Italians seem to have a high capacity for muddling thru in much the same way that their neighbors, Spain, Portugal , Cypress and Greece have remain in quasi zombie states, yet still carrying on. I'm not sure how this ends perhaps some combination of a massive loss of faith and some exogenous trigger that panics the populace. Until then the The Euro authorities are buying thru QE something over 100 billion in assets a month. Maybe the central banks just end up owning everything and then they are shut down and the bad debt just vaporizes.

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dervish's picture

that will be the beginning of the end.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

dervish's picture

chasing too little productivity and assets, wouldn't inflation be inevitable, in the real world?

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

My guess is that all the liquidity remains trapped in the financial sector. It doesn't get into the consumer sector where it could cause inflation or even boost demand. I think the result of all the liquidity with no productive place to go is the inflation of equity shares.

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Sandino's picture

Apparently many Italian savers were CONvinced to buy bank bonds with their savings, but the EU requires severe haircuts for these bondholders, leading to the likelihood that many will have their life savings bailed in to cover the banks' debts. That would basically kill the Renzi government chances in the upcoming elections and hand the opposition 5-star movement a victory that would result in an anti-EU referendum and a likely 'Italexit' vote. The threat of an anti-EU vote by Italy may be enough to make the EU soften its rules against state-financed bank bailouts. It would be nuke compared to the brexit firecracker.

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I'm not sure why Italy's banking system is getting all the chicken-little yapping right now, when the US banking system is in far more danger from the far higher debt levels in the US. America now has multiple sub-prime bubble sin car loans, student loans and once again in mortgages. The banks are on the hook for all these loans going bad, and since the US has a ton of public debt along the private debt, the taxpayers won't be able to bail them out.

Whereas Italy has one of the lowest debts of big industrial countries. I was there a couple years ago and it's surprising how thrifty the Italians are overall. The banking problems there are mainly due to inadequate structures to manage liquidity, but that's very fixable because the Italians overall have very low debt. The USA and Britain are in far greater danger because we both have too much debt at too many levels, and no way to bail out the banks.

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Sandino's picture

The EU rules forbid Italy from bailing out its banks with public funds, so the condition of the banks balance sheets represents a real risk of political and financial contagion. US public debt is irrelevant, since we control our own currency, we can pay off anything. Fears of inflation or 'market' reactions against the dollar are, in the current ZIRP climate, completely unrealistic.

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