Three competing armies converging on one Syrian city

The Syrian city of al-Bab is not very large. It's not very pretty. It's not particularly noteworthy in any way, but one - it happens to be strategically located in late 2016.
al-bab.jpg

First of all, there is Turkey and it's al-Qaeda linked allies.

Turkey-backed rebels are just 2 km (1.25 miles) from the northern Syrian city of al Bab and are expected to take it from Islamic State quickly despite some resistance, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.
The rebels said on Tuesday they had taken Qabasin, several km (miles) northeast of al Bab, setting the stage for an assault on the last urban stronghold of Islamic State in the northern Aleppo countryside.
Al Bab is of particular strategic importance to Turkey because Kurdish-dominated militias have also been pursuing a drive to seize it. Ankara is determined to prevent Kurdish forces from joining up cantons they control along the Turkish border, for fear it will stoke Kurdish separatism at home.

A Pentagon spokesman has said that the U.S. coalition is not supporting Turkey's offensive.
Meanwhile, it was only yesterday the Kurds said they were pulling back East. The YPG had other plans.

Despite U.S. pledges that YPG, the military branch of the PYD which is the Syrian offshoot of PKK, is leaving Manbij and the territories west of the Euphrates River, the terrorist group is still advancing on the towards the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, a key point to link its cantons against Turkey's warnings.
PYD forces moved westwards from Manbij area and occupied eight villages on Wednesday, cutting off the Daesh-held village of Arimah from the rest of Daesh-occupied areas.

The Kurds are less than 10 kilometers from al-Bab.

Meanwhile, from the opposite direction, Syria and it's Iran-linked allies prepare to move on al-Bab.

The Syrian army troops and their allies are prepared to attack terrorists' positions in al-Bab in Northeastern Aleppo, a military official said on Wednesday, adding that the army will not allow Turkey-affiliated forces to attack the strategic city.
"The Syrian air force has dropped thousands of leaflets over al-Bab city and called on people to leave the city as the Syrian army and its allies are preparing to start military operations to liberate the city from ISIL control," the official told FNA.
The official said that while the Turkey-affiliated terrorists of the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) have reached to regions 1km from al-Bab and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are also stationed in the Eastern parts of al-Bab, the Syrian army and its allies have deployed their forces at the air force college.
"The Syrian army and its allies will not allow the Turkey-affiliated forces to attack al-Bab," he stressed.

So three different armies have sworn that they "will not allow" any other army in al-Bab.
Two of them are going to be wrong.
Maybe we should invade and "liberate" al-Bab?

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tourniquet's picture

the fuck out of syria?

mr. jimmy dore has an idea.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjOr2YzrZDY&t=702s]

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GIANT ALL-CAPS SIG

I knew watching this video (and reading this thread) was going to sicken me. It's a sad state of affairs when you wind up being so grateful to have access to information which makes you feel so terrible.

And the Saudis et al are essentially funding US military war-crimes? Not to mention all of the bribes undoubtedly paid out... how very interesting - I hadn't known that part. Both corporate 'political' parties must fall, in order to clean out the corruption embedded in the fibre of their soulless and mindless pathologically greedy group-think.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Pricknick's picture

Maybe we should invade and "liberate" al-Bab?

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

featheredsprite's picture

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Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.

Wink's picture

bothered to keep track of the M.E. since 2012. There's no keeping track of who's who without a scorecard, and there is no scorecard. This ony ends badly (as many predicted), with the U.S. bearing the load of all those refugees. What a prize.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

FOUR armies are converging on al-Bab: I forgot ISIS

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Alex Ocana's picture

The Revolution in Rojava

https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/the-revolution-in-rojava

1. The Rojava revolution is the only one in the region that is supportable with enthusiasm and no shame. They are willing to work with the legitimate government of Syria and form a federation. We need to gain knowledge of the Rojava Revolution and IMO give major support to it.

2. The Turks and their Al-Qaedah and ISIS allies should be kicked the fuck out of Syria. ASAP. They funded the damn ISIS by allowing smuggling of oil out through Turkey's port to Israel. Turkey has no right whatsoever to invade Syria. I hope their damn army gets sent back to Turkey where they can eventually behead Erdogan.

3. The legitimate government of Syria, supported by the people of Syria have a legitimate right to protect its people from Turks, invading mercenaries and violent religious fanatics

If you want to learn about the Rojava Revolution you can freely download the book Revolution in Rojava: Democratic Autonomy and Women's Liberation in the Syrian Kurdistan by Michael Knapp at:

http://forum.mobilism.org/search.php?keywords=Rojava&sr=topics&sf=titleonly

Please do, its one liberation movement not many people know or care about.

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From the Light House.

How they can do what they do in the midst of all that turmoil and violence is extraordinary. I suspect it has something to do with "breathing the air of equality" as Orwell put it.

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Alex Ocana's picture

Bookchin: "The overriding problem is to change the structure of society so that people gain power. The best arena to do that is the municipality—the city, town, and village—where we have an opportunity to create a face-to-face democracy."

In 1980 Bookchin used the term "libertarian municipalism", to describe a system in which libertarian institutions of directly democratic assemblies would oppose and replace the state with a confederation of free municipalities." (Wikipedia).

Bookchin spent decades in Vermont and wrote many articles from the left critical of Sanders. Collected articles here:

http://dwardmac.pitzer.edu/Anarchist_Archives/bookchin/BookchinCW.html

In this article by Bookchin we can see antecedents which I think make Sander's support of the Clinton campaign clear.

Murray Bookchin, “The Bernie Sanders Paradox: When Socialism Grows Old”

http://mosquitocloud.net/murray-bookchin-the-bernie-sanders-paradox-when...

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From the Light House.

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by the the effectiveness of the Kurdish fighting forces.

As a final note, I hope that the DOD plans to do a thorough study of the YPG/YPJ. There are valuable lessons to be learned here. This a remarkably successful, self-trained and self-organized force. Although it possesses a small number of mortars, armored vehicles and other supporting arms, it is overwhelmingly a very lightly armed infantry force that can move rapidly on foot or in their fleet of light pickup trucks. The individual units enjoy tremendous freedom of action and display remarkable battlefield initiative down to the company equivalent sized force. The all female YPJ units seem to be far more than some new age publicity gimmick. Unencumbered by 100 pounds of equipment, they are effective against an enemy that is apparently terrified of dying at the hands of a woman. The YPJ fighters are also very effective in handling refugees and civilians in liberated villages. The Kurds may be on to something with their approach to the military art.

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native

dervish's picture

is a false one, and this is coming from a guy who's had dinner with the Taliban.

They are an effective force, no doubt, and the contributions of Kurdish women have been invaluable. What we have to place in context is the relative position of the Kurds regarding their neighbors. Right or wrong, the Kurds are distrusted by those around them, and if there is one thing that various states can agree upon, it's that a Kurdish state can't be allowed. This is not to say that one can't occur, but if it does, expect major pushback from every other player.

I like them myself, but I think that they'll play the same role that they always have in this tragic opera. Once they are no longer useful to either side, they'll be discarded.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

from several sources. Maybe the guy who's had dinner with the Taliban is right, but it's hard to know for sure.

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native

dervish's picture

Amazingly in fact, the very day that Trump first met with Obama, our Syrian policy may begin to make some sense. I also heard that Clapper resigned today, but haven't confirmed it.

Rather than running rat-lines to Wahhabi terrorists, it's my hope that we can now work with global partners to shut down those who would behead bishops, terrorize nuns, and slaughter everyone that doesn't conform to their narrow beliefs. The nascent jihadi terrorist state in eastern Syria looks like it's not going to happen after all.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

dervish's picture

and so are Sheikh al-Thani and the Saudi king.

Syria's not their playground, apparently, and they won't profit from it.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

President-elect Donald Trump has offered retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn a job in his cabinet as national security adviser.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3948000/Senior-official-Trump-of...

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native

dervish's picture

so to speak.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Alex Ocana's picture

This video is a sight for weary eyes and has been repeated now since the Battle of Kobane. Hundreds and thousands of refugees returning home. I am not there obviously but from nearly all reports, most people feel safe in the Kurdish controlled areas. If it is propaganda, its the kind I like: secular libertarian socialism, all religions and ethnicities welcome, strong verified women's liberation. . . Anyway, this video is something I love to see. Refugees feeling safe and going home.

https://twitter.com/WeWillWin_Kurds/status/798634258784919552

I have so much craved seeing some gentleness and caring. This simple video makes tears come to my eyes. YPG fighter combs girls hair.:

https://twitter.com/DefenceUnits/status/796851380183068672

#WrathOfEuphrates at https://twitter.com/hashtag/WrathOfEuphrates?src=hash

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From the Light House.

Alex Ocana's picture

Here is what is going on up to an hour ago, as far as I can tell:

The Turks and their Al Qaedah allies: AKA Al-Nusra, AKA "Moderate Rebels" AKA FSA, are stalled without air support on the outskirts north of ISIL controlled Al Bab.

The YPG (Rojava Kurds) have advanced about 12 km in the south of Al Bab since the essay map here was published, and are short about 12 km from joining the two sectors of Rojava. When they cut the main road, and they soon will, that will completely choke the ISIL oil smuggling route through Turkey and keep the ISIL rats from escaping. The Kurds are receiving air support.

The Syrian Army is far to the south but, as I mentioned, the Rojava Kurds and Assad Syrian Army have not been enemies and it appears as if post ISIL/post Al Qaeda Syria will likely become a confederation with an autonomous Rojava region.

One of the reasons is that the Kurds are considered safety by the people in the north, they are fighting often on foot with light weapons, and taking time to help refugees and protect them. Part of the strength is that women are enraged by the treatment of women by ISIL and joining the YPG/YPJ and SDF (northern Rojavan Kurds, Yazidi, other allies) in droves. They also have some very smart tacticians and propagandists.

Note: I hope I got the alphabet soup right. I will add the updated situation map as soon as I find it again.

sitmap  2016-11-17_224307.jpg
sitmap.jpg

Note in edit: I am certainly the least of people when it comes to military tactics (the little I learned was from reading extensively about the tactics of the USA civil war some decades ago). But it appears to me as if the Kurds are going to leave ISIL block the Turks on the north boundary of Al Bab and join to the south to surround ISIL in Al Bab , then, with their supply lines joined, move south joining the Syrian army to blast the last of the Al Qaedah rats out of Aleppo. Like I said, this can be considered a fantasy for now.

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From the Light House.

dervish's picture

The rats aren't getting nearly as much support. I won't feel good about it until Raqqa is liberated, at a minimum.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Alex Ocana's picture

Thousands of people are escaping from Daesh occupied Raqqa to the north behind Rojava Kurdish front lines. Video here:

https://twitter.com/Herekol_Kurd/status/796622529779666945?lang=en

#WrathOfEuphrates #Raqqa. More than 5000 civilians returned to Hisha town after the expulsion of #ISIS rats.

https://twitter.com/DefenceUnits/status/798690542875971584?lang=en

As you probably know, these areas in the north are generally a mixed multi-ethnic population. The area is the breadbasket of Syria, used to have huge wheat production, although over production, drought and war haven't helped. I have the population figures for the different Rojava cantones from the Revolution in Rojava book linked earlier. In my opinion the only way this will work is if all ethnicities and religions can work and live together. That can only occur IMO under the secular mult-iethnic community based Rojava model.

To me, the biggest problem now are the Turks and that maniac Erdogan who has the dream of a new Turkish Ottoman Empire built on the bodies of the Kurds, Yazidis, Syriacs, Druze, Arabs and other people of the region.

I am busy thinking of how the Rojava revolution could be applied to Palestine/Holy Land: Hand in Hand Schools seem to hold the seed of a multi-ethnic state in the "Holy Land".

Added in edit: The Turks and their Al-Qaedah allies are busier attacking Rojavans than Daesh. USA and Europe seem to want the Turks to stall, not giving air support. Has someone in Washington grown a brain suddenly?

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From the Light House.

Alex Ocana's picture

I haven't seen this on MSM, but it certainly as a lot of play im ME media. This appears to be from a French Agency. If anyone with better access sees this from a valid USA or European source, please post???

Col. Davis memo.jpg
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From the Light House.

Bisbonian's picture

What the heck is that?

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

Alex Ocana's picture

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From the Light House.

This seems heartening news, but one wonders about suspicions being temporarily lulled both in America and internationally while the corporate coups are snuck through or waiting in abeyance until protest weakens and trust falsely gained.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.