02/05 is National Weatherperson's Day
~~ Weatherpersons
I know that a lot of people somewhat rely upon The Old Farmer's Almanac, but, if you ponder a moment you will surely note that there is neither a "Young Farmer's Almanac" nor a "New Farmer's Almanac", which should tell you something. A lot of people complain about the accuracy of weather predictions, but weatherpersons are right more often than politicians and at least try to be truthful and accurate. There is also some confusion as to what such projections mean. There is an explanation here: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf, but it lacks a bit of clarity if not intelligibility.
My interpretation is that if there is a 100% chance of rain in Alameda County, but only a 40% chance it will hit Oakland, then there is a 40% chance of rain in Oakland. Similarly, if there is only an 80% chance or rain in Alameda County, but a 50% chance that any such rain will hit Oakland, then there is also a 40% chance of rain in Oakland. Lastly, I recall an internet posting by a bona fide meteorologist to the effect that a 40% chance of rain in Oakland could mean that there is a 100% chance or rain in Oakland, but that such rain will only hit 40% of the city. Meanwhile, contrary to song and legend, it does rain in California and it is raining right here at my house while I am writing this. I am, fwiw, writing this in early January, so who knows what the weather here will be on February 5.
Everybody is always talking about the weather --
It seems one either gets too much rain --
or not nearly enough
On February 5, 1924, the Royal Greenwich Observatory began broadcasting the Greenwich Time Signal. W00T! Now we all knew what time it was and hence where we were and probably where we were supposed to be. Navigation depends on time and much of our lives is organized around time and yet it's a construct, arbitrary and capricious in this instance or arguably any other. We can note and sense duration, but we cannot move forward or backward in time as we can in any spatial direction or dimension. WTF is time anyway to rule our lives and existence while being so inexplicable and immaterial?
On this day in history:
1849 -- U of Wis. at Madison's first class met at the Madison Female Academy
1852 -- The Hermitage Museum in Saint Petersburg opened
1859 -- Wallachia and Moldavia were united and eventually became Romania
1885 -- King Leopold II of Belgium established the Congo as a personal possession.
1909 -- The creation of Bakelite was announced.
1917 -- Mexico's current constitution was adopted.
1924 -- The Royal Greenwich Observatory began broadcasting the Greenwich Time Signal.
1939 -- Francisco Franco became dictator of Spain and beloved of the US govt.
1945 -- Douglas MacArthur returned to Manila.
1958 -- The USAF lost an H-bomb (the Tybee Bomb) of the coast of Georgia.
1962 -- De Gaulle called for Algerian independence
1985 -- The mayors of Rome and Carthage signed a treaty ending the Third Punic War. **
** Accordingly, it lasted 2,131 years. This, then, is the record which the US had been trying to break with Viet Nam and Afghanistan, and is still trying to break with the GWOT.
Some people who were born on this day:
So the ideology was that: use sounds as instruments, as sounds on tape, without the causality. It was no longer a clarinet or a spring or a piano, but a sound with a form, a development, a life of its own.
~~ Luc Ferrari
1594 -- Biagio Marini, violinist and composer
1626 -- Marie de Rabutin-Chantal, writer
1880 -- Gabriel Voisin, pilot and engineer
1923 -- Claude King, country singer, guitarist and songwriter
1927 -- Robert Allen, pianist and composer
1929 -- Hal Blaine, Wrecking Crew drummer
1929 -- Luc Ferrari, pianist and composer
1941 -- Henson Cargill, country singer
1941 -- Barrett Strong, singer, songwriter, and pianist
1941 -- Cory Wells, singer
1944 -- Al Kooper, singer, songwriter, keyboards player
1952 -- Daniel Balavoine, singer and songwriter
1953 -- Freddie Aguilar, singer, songwriter and guitarist
1954 -- Cliff Martinez, drummer and songwriter
1956 -- Vinnie Colaiuta, drummer
1964 -- Duff McKagan, singer, songwriter and bassist
1965 -- Keith Moseley, bassist and songwriter
1969 -- Bobby Brown, singer, songwriter actor, dancer
1971 -- Sara Evans, country singer
1973 -- Trijntje Oosterhuis, singer and songwriter
Some people who died on this day:
Teach a parrot the terms 'supply and demand' and you've got an economist.
~~ Thomas Carlyle
1881 – Thomas Carlyle, philosopher, historian, and academic
1976 -- Rudy Pompilli, saxophonist
1989 – Joe Raposo, pianist and composer
1998 -- Tim Kelly, guitarist
2012 -- Al De Lory, keyboard player, wrecking company musician, producer
Some Holidays, Holy Days, Festivals, Feast Days, Days of Recognition, and such:
National Weatherperson's Day
California Western Monarch Day
World Nutella Day
National Shower with a Friend Day
TAGS
Today's Tunes
National Weatherperson's Day
Biagio Marini
Robert Allen
Hal Blaine
Luc Ferrari
Henson Cargill
Barrett Strong
Cory Wells
Al Kooper
Freddy Aguilar
Vinnie Colaiuta
Duff McKagan
Rudy Pompilli
Al De Lory
Bonus Kooper (with Bloomfield)
Ok, it's an open thread, so it's up to you folks now. So what's on your mind?
Cross posted from http://caucus99percent.com
Open Thread, weatherpersons, Punic War III, Hal Blaine, Barrett Strong, Cory Wells, Al Kooper, Vinnie Colaiuta, Freddy Aguilar
Comments
Good morning...
The saying in Alabama is: "Don't like the weather? Wait 15 minutes."
That is certainly the case today. The day started with a 40F drizzle, but headed to a sunny 60 by afternoon. Sky is already clearing. https://www.alabamawx.com/ is my go to site for AL weather. Also covers the possible 500 year rain in CA today.
Everyone hang in there, spring is around the corner. Of course that's the start of our busy season on the homestead.
Thanks for the music and OT.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Atmospheric river pounds California
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sounds serious: flooding, mudslides, hurricane force winds, power outages, tornados
good luck Cali
Good morning QMS. All that and more, I decided to post
a stand alone comment below.
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Good morning Lookout. Big storm here, part of a series
of storms/weather events, BUT, the daffodils are blooming.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
California Dreaming - Heh. We've been having a series
of "storms". It was raining in NorCal when we left for Mexico on the 23rd, and had been, off and on for a few days. Much of California was getting some winds and rain, including SoCal. On our homeward leg we were unable to anchor out at Cabo due to high winds, high and rising. Stormy offshore Baja and SoCal with plenty tossing and turning, rocking and rolling, all this in a fairly good sized cruise ship. We disembarked in SF on the 2nd in a light rain and it has rained ever since with some breaks, but also some extended very heavy rains and plenty of high winds. The lights have flickered a lot, but we never lost power, though over a million did. That is not purely a measure of the storm's intensity because the utility company-government symbiotes have played a major role, as always.
I talked with my sis in San Diego yestidday afternoon and they had already seen serious flooding down there with more weather incoming, enough that she wasn't sure that she would be able to get to work today. Some of it was exacerbated by high tides and storm surf generating pushback against flood flows in the exit zones of low lying flooded areas.
I've seen reports of flooding in Napa, Sonoma, and Mendocino counties, to our north; as well as Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Cruz to our south and Merced to the east.
The sun is out at the moment, so I need to sneak out and feed da boids.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
NoHum had
high winds kick in around
7pm local last evening
frequent heavy rains through the night
ya ever feel the wind Slap
a house? only like thirty times
dawgs would jump up
and bark at the wind
funny the first few times
less amusing at 0200
lots of surf at the jetty’s
will try to figure how to post some
pics soon(ish)
sheeting rain presently
Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .
Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .
If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march
House creaks
-
when the winds gust over 50
shiver me timbers
the dancing trees are fun to watch
summer months, although the
bare trees do more like a
funeral dirge
Good morning TBU. 1952 stucco over 2x4 frame house
here, we definitely feel and hear not merely gusts, but also substantial increases and decreases, but, still, nothing like our old travel trailer.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
As I type this I am unaware if it will actually occur but it
certainly getting plenty of hype.
Good for Tucker if he can get a decent story
-
out of the Kremlin and share it with us? The spin masters must be going nuts!
Good afternoon and thanks, humphry.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Now getting back to what the MSM actually considers
important to its viewers. /S
The real question is whether or not he will have as
good of a day as Kittle does.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Who the f*ck cares about a self promoter?
-
Sorry, just don't get it.
Smells like a distraction
dressed up as a psyop.
I couldn't find any weatherperson songs,
but this is pretty close:
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Good evening otc - sure sounds like a weatherperson song
to me. Thanks for reading and dropping in.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
This has not been "VERIFIED" but if true it would blow a lot
of minds in the west.
The rest of the tweet is pretty good also:
Your southern border was better run than that 2020 election
-
heh, got a point there
Monday Monday
Hi all, Hey EL!
Welcome back, to the rain. I trust you got enough cerveza and tacos? Is it dry season there now? Any noseeums? Birds? Hope it was a good trip.
The Tinariwen is great, love it, thanks for that!
Hey has anyone seen an h-bomb, I seem to have misplaced one? ~ U.S. Military
I am a pretty hardcore amateur weather student, since critical to hunting migrant avian objects. I never cease to be amazed at how I can often better predict low temps where I live, than the local NOAA office with a team of pros and super computers. Which after cold front passages are routinely off by a whole category (10f) on lows! The difference between freezing, and not. Which is critical. Best not to get me started on them...
Thanks for the tunes!
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein
Hola, Dysto. Actually, not really enough cerveza and tacos,
but is that even a thing? No noseeums but birds aplenty, though many heard and not seen or barely glimpsed or seen at night and/or when without our binos. All the same, caught a look at a laysan out offshore, also a small flock of almost certainly black vented shearwaters and one brown bobby also offshore. Saw a black skimmer feeding in Manzanillo harbor and a whale frolicking in the harbor mouth. yellow winged caciques ashore in a stand of trees in Puerto Vallarta, assorted grackles, unk swallows and unk hummers. Pellies and frigate birds, of course.
Edit: left out assorted flycatchers in Mazatlan.
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
mexi birds
Wow EL!
Sounds awesome! Amazing to get an alby from shore. There is a small group that in the last 20 years or so has begun breeding behavior annually in the Revilla Gigedos Islands. The only eastern Pacific site such occurs. I think they may have nested recently there.
Caciques are awesome, whaddabird!
It is a whole 'nother ballgame in dense habitat, like anything tropical. Sound is everything. You hear 10 things for every thing you see. Can be very frustrating since I don't know most foreign calls. Hearing things you would love to see and you don't know which...
thanks for the report! sounds awesome!
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein
The alby was from the ship, offshore, port side and
hence seaward side, but not too far out from the ship. Was January 31, we were roughly due west of the Islas San Benito, lattitude 28 degrees 18' and change North longitude, lattitude 115 degrees + west (didn't get minutes) but islands weren't really visible; slightly rough seas (and somewhat overcast iirc).
edit: forgot to mention that the plaza in Mazatlan is simply lousy with White Winged Doves: cue "The Edge of 17":
be well and have a good one
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
weewow!
Hey EL!! Awesome on the alby... too cool! Sounds like it was indeed one of those Revilla Gigedo birds. Amazing. You need permits to land on most of them. And the Soccoro Dove only exists in captivity now, extinct in the wild a couple or few decades now.
I wandered around EL Mercado in downtown Mazatlan for a couple hours one day, what an awesome place!
Funny thing about Stevie's white-winged dove is that I thought her coooing in the song is Mourning Dove type more closely than White-winged Dove. Which sings a good 'who cooks for you', like a Barred Owl. I guess she was just giving individual cooos, with artistic freedom. Always liked the song anyway!
sounds a great trip!
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein