Trump increased his share of black vote as compared with 2016
The exit polls are likely going to be adjusted as more results come in, but for now the snapshot painted is pretty interesting.
In key states WI, MI and PA, only in PA did Biden improve over Hillary with respect to the black vote.
In Nevada, Trump improved (17% of the black vote in 2020 compared with 12% in 2016).
In Georgia, Trump improved (11% in 2020, compared with 8% in 2016).
The voters who put Biden over in these key states were white voters, not black voters. If Biden had not improved with whites in just one or two of those states, we'd be looking at Trump's second presidency.
Identity politics is dumb and it doesn't yield good results. Trump lost the election because of his poor handling of COVID and white voter guilt from lower turnout in 2016.
This doesn't mean the black vote isn't important (to either party); of course it is critical to democratic victories. But it's not the vote that really tips the scales, as a result of identity politics, in the final analysis. Black voters are people, not paint swatches. They have real needs that aren't addressed by badgering non-blacks about identity issues, or by pandering to black voters about their plight. And if the democratic party continues to ignore their real needs and instead tries to continue pandering to the superficial issue of identity, they will cede to the Republicans a crucial group of voters they absolutely need to win.
The politics that keeps black voters motivated to vote is the same politics that motivated those crucial white voters this time around: speaking to their basic needs of health, safety, and stability.
(Addendum: obviously, the democratic party doesn't actually give a damn about anything but their own power; none of the above should be considered as suggesting otherwise.)
Comments
I am surrounded by blacks who are republicans.
They are typically those who had a military career, or inherited a family farm. They made money, want to keep it, do not think their black brethren are working hard enough. They do not want their tax dollars to go to "lazy" fellow blacks. At all.
It is not a novelty. It is everyday.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
Do I finally detect the Dems' brilliant strategy?
Is it possible that what seems to us to be insanity is a party elite who want to become the sane conservative party? It seems we were deluding ourselves that they were simply inept at winning elections and pursuing policies that help real people when that was never their plan. It looked like they were simply abandoning FDR's accomplishments. Herding all those who think retaining their status and lifestyle depends on backing their masters' interests into a big enough group that they need neither the left nor the mouth breathing right is positively brilliant. Have the bastards moved far enough right that they've staked out the middle leaving the left and right, who will never work together, completely outflanked - from the middle.
I haven't stated this idea very well. Those who voted for Biden seem to be those who are hanging onto a decent existence and those in relative comfort who don't want to lose any more ground. All it took was four years of scaring the shit out of them with a madman. Anything and any president looks better than what has happened the past four years. These are also people who haven't lost hope and quit voting plus those who still think anything Biden can do is better for them than trump. It's Obama's hope plan with lowered expectations and it doesn't upset the oligarch's sweet deal.
It looks like they lost the blacks who understand they're expendable and those like most of us here who don't want what the Dems are selling. The "sane" conservatives they picked up far outnumbered those they lost.
If someone can figure out what I'm trying to say please take a shot. To me it does look like the left has been replaced with the center right that have figured out that the Dems have become acceptable when the alternative is the whackos and the reds. And the whole time most of us have been trying to understand WTF the Dems were thinking.
It's going to be interesting to see the demographics of who voted for who but I bet it works out that the Dems finally took enough of the middle to win at least the presidency. It also doesn't seem to have gone so well on the state and local levels. They were murdered in congress. That might be a "won a battle but will lose the war" type of pyrrhic victory.
Seriously. I need to refine my thoughts on this idea. I appreciate any help.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Dems gained the Presidency but lost eveything else.
Well not everything but lost much else. Congress counts down, local offices down. Not sure about Governors. Still didn't get the Senate. All with massive cheating. No I don;t have proof. But Trump is comfortably ahead all election night in PA, then over DAYS, new ballots are miraculously "found" and they just happen to be overwhelmingly Biden. state after state, supposedly incompetent vote counting and ballot counting.
It smells. In fact, it smells like Richard J Daley's Chicago. Or Boss Tweed's NY.
You don't need Putin Puppets when you own the ballot making and counting machinery.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
No -- new ballots weren't 'found' in PA
Those were the absentee ballots. From the initial returns by county I had no difficulty spotting the counties that hadn't counted the VbM ballots -- and it was regardless of the political orientation of the county. The absentee ballots in heavily Republican counties ended up breaking significantly for Biden.
Unlike IL where all absentee ballots postmarked on or before election day and delivered within fourteen days are counted, the PA legislature passed a bill that only ballots received on or before election day would be counted, but the PA SC ruled that delivered within 3 days would count. At this point I know that those delivered after election day have been segregated and officials may count them, but I don't know if those counts have been added to the reported totals. I suspect not or Philadelphia's total wouldn't be down so much from 2016 when the totals for all but the very tiny counties are up and many by a hefty amount.
You do appreciate the rigging that the Postmaster General attempted to pull don't you? May have succeeded in a couple of states, but for thwarted by a DC federal judge in other jurisdictions.
Oh, yes, I surely do.
The usually ham-handed Trump approach. Democrats have more finesse.
Mystery ballots appear to have saved Kim Foxx as well, but not Lauren Underwood. But Underwood was running in a district that's been Republican pretty much as long as I've been alive. Oberweis couldn't cheat a blind dog at cards. But republicans have electoral machines too. My standard comment on Oberweis is "Great ice cream, lousy politics"). When running for state-wide office, Oberweis used to offer free ice cream at his chain of dairy stores to anyone who came in with an "I voted" sticker on Election day. It gave me great pleasure to vote against him then go to his store and have my free $5 Sundae.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
I like a good fantasy novel.
And this reads like one. A couple of holes in the plot, though. If Dems engineered widespread cheating, why didn't that cheating include taking the Senate and extending majority in the House? It would be very stupid to cheat for Biden only, leaving him with a Republican Senate and reduced clout in the House.
BTW, there were no "mysterious" sudden ballots. Ballots are counted by category and order of receipt and reported on a schedule. Reported totals go up in spurts. Every election has been the same.
Trump lost. Republicans need to get over it.
Yep. I am skeptical our vote counting machines
are legitimate or secure, and given this country's history of ballot-box stuffing and other related fraud I find it far from credible that we should assume mail-in voting is secure. However, that doesn't mean fraud has actually occurred.
The Greens in Germany are steering that course.
In many ways, particularly foreign policy, they’ve stealthily morphed into a “hip capitalist” party, center-right for the veneer-of-woke PMC.
In today’s e-mail: the German polling organization Civey reports that 57% (at the moment, now approaching 59%) of their respondents think continued German military deployment in Afghanistan is wrong.
Among the parties with the biggest proportion of supporters favoring continued Afghanistan military involvement: Merkel’s CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats + the Bavaria-only Christian Social Union) at 37% and the Greens at 31%.
Supporters of both the Left Party and the AfD, i.e. democratic socialists / ex-communists and “right-wing populists” alike, are strongly against.
https://civey.com/umfragen/4802/finden-sie-es-grundsatzlich-eher-richtig...
Left-Right
In the interest of refinement...
Try throwing out the confusing and ultimately non-sensical left-right paradigm.
In the 1971 mother of all conspiracy works None Dare Call it Conspiracy, author Gary Allen proposes that 'Left' and 'Right' as popularly portrayed are contradictory and confuse far more than they illuminate. He suggests that ideologies are more meaningfully classified on a continuum of centralized/authoritarian to decentralized anarchic/libertarian (#2 on the chart):
Hate to link to Amazon, but many good reviews of None Dare there
Bonus track - Trump voting black man's pitch to another black man (an acquaintance, apparently) planning on voting for Biden:
I agree that the left-right paradigm is non-functional.
Since the demise of the USSR it has made less and less sense but it is what most Americans think they understand about politics. That most Americans think that Europe, Oz, and any country that invests in its citizens is socialist pretty much says Americans don't know what they're talking about beyond buzzwords and vague, usually dead wrong, ideas. Still, it loosely serves when dividing between those who think government should benefit everybody and those who want it to serve themselves and the rich and powerful. Even then it's hard to pigeonhole people's ideas because we are often all over the place in how we think.
How they choose to vote is even harder to understand. I doubt many get beyond "I like this guy." or "Not him/her!". This all but issue free election is probably some un-reasoned mash up of what people think is best for them. Everyone I've know came down on either trump is the greatest ever or he's a plague and has to go. In that regard it is a case of trump lost, not Biden won. I can't really say I know anyone who thought Biden was the best choice but was the best choice available. The operative word is available which is most of what is wrong with our two party system behind the money in politics. I guess wearing masks in the voting booth made voting easier since we didn't have to hold our noses when choosing Biden.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
You didn't have to chose Biden
I'm sure there was an alternative even just leaving it blank.
No Green? no lib? No lizard people party?
That's for voting to destroy my Social Security and Medicare. Want some Cat Food?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
I didn't.
As I made clear here some time ago. "None of the above" was my choice this year as it was in 2016.
While I appreciate and am sympathetic to the positions of the alternatives available in third parties, I also don't consider anyone on the ballot for president to be qualified or suitable for the office. Besides, my home for voting in the US went the way it did since I moved there in 1988 - they went for the other candidate by an insurmountable number. 60.7% to 37.4% to be exact. Jorgensen got 1%. Congressional and local races went pretty much exactly like the big one. Voting was, and is, a waste of my time there. I understand from a good friend (Republican who voted Dem for only the second time in his life and is appalled by both parties) most of our mutual friends we thought were sane have become rabid trumpsters during the past four years. There's nothing there for me anymore. So I'm not.
I read that the US Embassy reported that 15,000 of the estimated 35,000 US expats in Ecuador voted through the embassy. That's not a bad turnout considering how much effort it takes.
I have some choices to make in the next couple of years. I can vote here in two more years IIRC. A permanent resident with 5 years is eligible to vote. I also have to decide if I want to go through the process of obtaining citizenship. I won't renounce my US citizenship, nor do I have to, but I am eligible in 3 or 5 years. I'm not sure which. Either way it's quite a process. I may do it because it will force me to get more serious about learning spoken Spanish and I feel obligated to my hosts. Following this election cycle in the US, I'm more interested than I was even though it doesn't offer much except another passport.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
We are in agreement here!
Another thing that sticks in my craw. NPR commenters saying Trump should give up because AP declared Biden the winner. I guess I misread my constitution, I thought the EC declared, not AP. I don't recall the Associated Press mentioned anywhere in that document, so who appointed them God?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Because that's how it works --
by tradition -- not every i is dotted or t crossed in the constitution, and you damn well know it. In 2016 when the media called the election for Trump, Hillary called and congratulated him. She was too distraught to greet her supporters who were at what was supposed to be her victory party, and she received harsh criticism for that. Maybe by you? What you didn't do is raise any objection to the media call on the election.
BTW, my Realtor is from Ecuador
What's it like there?
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
We live in Cuenca which is in the Andes.
I'm rather biased so get another opinion but we love it here. I've been on six continents during the past 45 years since finishing college and this is where I choose to be. Life is both simpler and a bit more complicated. It's like living in the '60s with bits and pieces of modern. The Spanish have been here almost 500 years, the Incas much, much longer, so the city is a modern in an old shell. The city is very progressive and constantly improves infrastructure. People, my favorite feature, are just awesome. The have fun in life, are friendly, accepting, and very easy to get to know. Cost of living is very low but the standard of living is good. Housing is inexpensive as is food, utilities, public transportation and most things not imported or high tech. The monthly standard wage is $400 but many people live quite well on less. Even expats live decently here on Social Security. A monthly income of $1500-2000 easily lets you enjoy life here and travel if you're careful.
The climate is as my wife says, "perfect." We've seen two days over 82F/28C in three years and nothing below 37F/3C. Most days it starts at about 50-55F with highs right around 70F. The weather is impossible to predict. There are only really three seasons although it's possible to have all three in one day. There are two wetter seasons. Average rainfall is somewhere around 45"/year and is spread around. We get a few frog strangler rains but usually it's a few tenths or less of an inch at times throughout the day. It's often cloudy for days at a time but the equatorial sun is brutal when it's out and still bright enough on most cloudy days.
As you would expect, plants grow like crazy. Every type of fruit and vegetable is easily available and inexpensive. Animal life is plentiful and very diverse. We have about four types of hummingbird that visit our feeders and plants every day. They nest in the trees close by. We've identified eight different hummingbirds on our feeders. We have a pair of kestrels and another pair of hawks currently working over the farmers' fields around us. Strangely, Tarantual October was pretty meager this year. It was colder and drier than the past winters which may explain why. The food is less fatty and most is pesticide, hormone, and antibiotic free. Living at 9100' (we're on a side of a mountain that goes to 13,000'+) over looking the city is spectacular. The water and air are clean. Our water comes out of the Cajas Mountains and is still clean enough for trout (not native). The biggest air quality issue is the diesel busses and Sanguay volcano gas on an odd occasion.
Like I said the people were my reason for deciding to move. Live and let live, we're all in this together, and an attitude of just finding a way to get by is very strong. There's a lot that just isn't right at times but nobody complains. They just find a way to make life work and they have friends and neighbors who will always help. Politically they have a strong revolutionary and civic spirit.
The government is not what we hoped. The current president really screwed people over but most are pissed and I hope they elect someone more like Correa. These rightwing rich fucks need to hold up their side of the social contract with appropriate taxes on the benefits they derive from the country and people's work. The good thing from an expat's view is that we have the full rights of a citizen, can vote after a time, and a permanent residency visa is about the easiest to get anywhere. Coming here with a few suitcases and starting life anew or dragging everything that fits into an overseas shipping crate isn't that expensive. I spent more moving across town in 1988 than I did moving here with everything that would fit in a 40'x8'x9' shipping container. I'd have left half of it had I known what I learned not long after getting here.
Living here is not for everyone. There are a lot of things that people used to the first world don't seem to be able to deal with. Anyone who can go with the flow, accept and give help to friends and neighbors, and love nature can fit in pretty well. One of my big concerns was how I would break the Amazon habit. It was easy and I absolutely love it except when, like soon, I'll need to build another top end computer. That's a trip 2500 miles north and a run through the customs gauntlet in Ecuador. It's a small price for paradise. We're trying to put together a Galapagos trip in the next couple weeks. I should be totally over the moon after that.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Definately turning into Republicans
The leadership of the Democratic Party wants to convert it to a party of Reagan Republicans or, at least, Nixon Republicans. Look at the number of ex military, ex CIA, ex Republican, etc. candidates they have recruited. However, they are also incompetent because these candidates have mostly lost. I do think we will see some pretty right wing Republicans in the Biden cabinet.
Kind of Disagree ...
... with your analysis given that you are looking at percentages versus actual votes cast. It's well known that turnout, especially Black turnout, was down in 2016 versus the Obama elections in 2008 and 2012, plus you've also got to consider that there were stronger 3d Party candidates in 2016 (notably Gary Johnson in the Libertarian Party) that would tend to lower Trump's vote % across all areas.* Consider these stats: total votes cast in GA this year were over 4.9 million compared to 4.1 MM in 2016, and in MI it was 5.4 MM this time versus 4.8 MM in '16. So, if you took the differential of actual votes 2020 versus 2016, my guess is the higher turnout in 2020 would show Biden's margin over Trump among black voters would be greater than that of HRC vs Trump in 2016, even if Trump gained in % as you cite.
Finally, you seem to be relying on exit polls -- I'm thinking that, with the high % of mail-in ballots this time, relying on exit polls for 2020 may be way off. See discussion at https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/exit-polls-2020-pandemic/index.html which goes into how the media conducted exit polls this time around, which seems to me that it's likely to be less accurate than in past years.
I DO agree with the statement that the reason Biden won was because of COVID 19. I believe this pandemic had two important effects: (1) it was Trump's poor handling of the pandemic that drove many to go with Biden and the Dems but, perhaps even more importantly, (2) the move to an emphasis on a more convenient method of voting, i.e., mail in ballots (primarily, in my view, a direct result of health concerns about in-person voting due to the pandemic) enabled turnout to increase across the board, which benefited Biden and Democratic candidates, particularly in states like GA and PA which turned from Red to Blue this time.
*In fact, I checked the CNN exit poll data for GA from 2016 and it actually had a slightly higher % (9% versus the 8% number cited) for the Black vote for Trump plus there was 2% for Johnson and, if you added that in, you get to the 11% number from 2020.
Bottom line, had it not been for the pandemic, I think it's likely that Trump would be celebrating a second term instead of anticipating a move out of the WH in January.
Percentages matter, absolute
numbers don’t when comparing in these contexts. In fact, if more blacks were a share of the total vote in Georgia this time than last, then Trump’s improvement makes the case even more strongly (he got a larger share of even more voters as compared with last time—not merely that he got a larger share of the same number).
But you are right about the exit polls having accuracy considerations this year that just didn’t apply in 2016. I kinda hedged a little on that in fact. And it certainly may be that his gain came from the weaker libertarian candidate. In that case the analysis isn’t too different: focusing on shallow identity certainly didn’t help Biden.
Sorry, but Your Math is Off.
... as my second favorite Presidential candidate this year (Andrew Yang, whom I wrote in for VP) might say, it's all about the Math. Let me throw out some rough numbers, using GA (which exit polls for 2016 and 2020 had as 30% of their universe) as an example:
2016, assume 1 MM voters, 90% for Dems, 10% for Rs
versus
2020, assume 1.2 MM voters (a 20% increase), but 88-12 split (i.e., a 2% increase for the R):
then you get a margin of 800,000 in 2016 but over 900,000 (1056K versus 144K) in 2020, so a net gain of over 100,000 votes in a State where the total margin was ~ 10,000. So, I gotta believe increased Black votes was a factor in helping Biden carry the state, if indeed that is the final result.
Keep in mind, I'm not really taking issue with some of the premises in your essay, I just think that the math you are using is off, not to mention the fact that the exit polls may be screwy (after all, we saw how far off the polls were for this election as also was the case in 2016).
I don't think that's right
in the context of this analysis. Using your raw numbers, Biden gained 156k votes (of the new voters) instead of 180k. It doesn't matter whether fewer or more voters were involved in the election: Trump got a greater fraction in either case than he did in 2016. My point isn't that increased turnout didn't benefit Biden, it's that Biden didn't benefit as much from increased turnout, assuming the hypothesis is that an identity politics play is a good strategy. He effectively lost ground.
Or, looking at it this way: Biden's margins for other groups (i.e. whites) were even bigger gains; it's arguable they helped more.
Agree that it's too soon to
analyze this, but I'm beginning to suspect that Covid-19 had a smaller direct impact than what I would have expected. Indirectly it led to a much higher level of early voting and VbM. In AZ in prior presidential elections there were always reports of very long (two to twelve hours) wait times at polls in low income/minority communities. That depresses turnout.
Maricopa County (,000s)
2012: 750 (R) and 602 (D)
2016: 747 (R) and 703 (D) (plus 158 lib, grn, other; no breakdown)
2020: 977 (R) and 1,024 (D) (plus 31 lib) (as of latest report)
We shall see more in the coming days.