Who Killed The Shorts?
Wall St seems a bit too comfortable with “the Redditors did it” narrative. Somewhat, but on a much smaller scale, like the '08-'09 narrative that ordinary scofflaws took out mortgages they couldn't possibly afford and that tanked the housing market and by extension banks and Wall St. It wasn't that their was no truth in over-extended housing buyers, but they were the bit players and had been played as suckers.
The GameStop financial market mess didn't begin with Redditors moving in mass to take down the shorts. They were late entrants (aka the “dumb money”), except in this instance, the “big boys” (ie Blackstone) were already engaged in squeezing the shorts; GameStop stock sellers were fewer than buyers. As the aggregate available supply, in the short run, couldn't increase, price was the sole variable. Redditors increased the buyers.
Here's the market price of GameStop at various points in the past year:
1/31/20 - $3.84
4/29/20 - $5.83 (day after the release of the 1/31/20 FYE financial statements)
6/10/20 - $5.07 (day after the release of 1st quarter (4/30) F/S
8/27/20 - $5.25 (day after 2nd quarter (7/31) F/S)
11/25/20 -$14.75 (day after 3rd quarter (1031) F/S)
In the 2017, 2018, and 2019 calendar years, GameStop revenues, etc began to decline. Prior to that they were more stable but not growing consistently. The stock price during the period ranged in the mid twenties, sliding to $16.55 as of 2/1/18 and $11.24 as of 2/1/19.
By January 2020, investors weren't keen on GameStop. For good reasons, primarily more competition for internet download video games and net losses. So, why the uptick in share price in the spring of 2020? Also good reasons as GameStop had done a significant amount of restructuring during 2018 and 2019. Its balance sheet was cleaner than it had ever been, but there was also an acknowledgment that the best case, near term scenario would be flat. Worst case more like Blockbuster video in its rather rapid decline.
What the financials don't reveal is the loyalty of its customer base. (Were there any loyal Blockbuster customers?) 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter results (respectively here, here, and and here) weren't stellar, but better than many “brick and mortar” retailers in the Covid-19 era.
Worth $14.75/share? Probably not. Is that what attracted the shorts or were they in there before then? Intermittently from February on and throughout 2020, the volume of trading activity increased, the price increased, and both subsequently declined for a few days. Volume peaked in mid-April, early June, early August, and mid-August at over 10 million, up from normal volume of two to four million. Late August it peaked much further at 38 million and after that generally remained well in excess of five million until October 8 and 9 when it hit 76 million and 77 million. (The outstanding shares of GameStop are only 69.25 million.) Suggests to me that the shorts and longs were engaged in battles scooping up pennies, nickles, and dimes months before the Redditors entered the fray, but in total the longs were winning and won bigger in January 2021.
It's going to take some time and collecting a huge volume of data to sort out the relative blame or credit, depending on your perspective, for who killed the shorts. Still, the principal blame rests with the shorts (like most gamblers they didn't know when to fold) and secondarily the brokers that allowed naked short selling (neither of whom deserve any empathy and should face legal repercussions). The Redditors were more like the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back, but that straw will singe most of them based on how late they were to the party. (There are reasons to be concerned that the Redditors could be too analogous to the MAGA Capitol rioters. Reveling in breaking through the house doors until they discover the cost to them for doing so.)
OTOH, wouldn't discount this possibility (arby #70):
Was talking to my son about this and I have to give his thinking a plus. He thinks that a couple of big funds that have been accumulating gamestock planned to get these redditers/robnhooders on side and bull raid the stock.
It's one way to reduce the competition and earn a profit in the process. (Was already mulling over this possibility before checking out the MOA thread.) And we know who holds large stakes in GameStop.
Comments
I hope
gamestop was just a precursory testing of the weakness of market transactions. Fighting the algorithms.
All stock exchanges are nothing but a play on play doe money. Push the right handle and something squeezes out.
Now the squeeze is on silver. A limited supply exists. If you have some, save it.
The market is being tested by many who think exposing corruption is more important than making money.
The Moneychangers comes to mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moneychangers
Even better yet, as how much I hate religious text:
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Those who bought at the high
We have a decent idea of the range the stock will fall to once the shorts clear up their mess, but it's less clear how long that will take.
Who is this "we" you talk about?
No "we" don't.
You're loss is their gain. It's our mess.
The markets of "free" capitalism have driven the ordinary human to believe that markets are driven by supply and demand. It could not be further from the truth.
The cost of gasoline is a prime example. Demand is low, yet prices are rising. Food is not considered an inflationary index, yet it is rising but not considered an issue.
Have your taxes gone down? Nope. Houses have appreciated in value while less own homes.
Please don't tell me you have any idea of what will happen in any market when the market is unexplainable.
Onward we go. May peace find you and all.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
I always thought about a strike back when gas prices
were above $3 and especially when they went over $5 in California.
I noticed gas prices last week when I went to Nevada and they were around $2.20 there and here, but now they’ve gone up to $2.40 in 10 days. Traffic was light both ways so demand isn’t up much here.
Edit
I didn’t finish my thought. I thought that we should do roving strikes. One week no one buys any gas. Next week another business. Something like that. Don’t know if it’d work. Don’t buy Black Friday doesn’t seem to.
Well, in this short squeeze,
Not surprising that grocery store food prices have increased. Demand increased as people ate fewer meals in restaurants and that demand outstretched the usual supply chain for stores.
Housing in the US is a chronic problem. In part because far too much of the housing stock is privatized and therefore, the competition for the rentiers is almost non-existent and that's combined with the American home ownership fetish.
Gasoline prices January 2020 - $2.636; January 2021 - $2.420. Demand isn't back to where it was 1/20, but perhaps cutting off the supply from Venezuela in 2019 is finally beginning to bite us.
Gasoline prices
are not included in inflationary prices.
But when they go up who pays? Those with the least to afford and can not afford.
Only a capitalistic regime discounts that which cost the most for ordinary people.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Did you mean to say that
Health insurance
My 2021 net pension is lower than 2020. Gross pension increased by 1.2% but health insurance increased more for a slight net loss. At least SS and Medicare are "hold harmless".
Re gasoline. AFAIK, Venezuela production did not go to US refineries being heavier or something. Real cause of the gas price increase IMO is the end of the price war between Russia and KSA as each tried to out produce the other. Don't know who blinked or if KSA just realized that the Nordstream deal meant that KSA couldn't bankrupt Russia,
In my limited experience, playing chicken with Russians is a VERY foolish game. I never met such fatalistic people.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
US oil refiners that
Main problem with Gamestop AFAIK
is the private information I was given that the hedge funds sold 110% of the outstanding shares short. Meaning that they were engaging in illegal "naked shorts". Like the 2007-2008 illegal housing foreclosures on forged documents, there will be no prosecution. the same team is back in charge!
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
The number I saw was
It's possible that that 140% is the sum of short purchases over some period of time -- say three months -- and doesn't deduct the interim settlements/rollovers. For example, A borrows from B for 30 days, the price is up at the margin call date, A buys another 30 day borrow and ponies up more in his/her margin account, rinse, repeat. Double down and then triple down which is what some reports on this indicated. These margin accounts are totally inadequate in a volatile market.
Of course it's been made much more complicated than I suggested. See the article that eyo posted below. In the short run it's perfectly legal for major brokers to create phantom stock to facilitate shorts, etc.
I'll accept 140%
Although it seems huge, even 110% is huge. Even 40% of the shorts being naked is huge.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
It's not known what
percentage were naked. Perhaps that information will be collected and reported on sometime in the future.
The exact number is not important
The fact that more shares were sold short than were issued is important. It shows that someone, on a grand scale was cheating. I look at the usual suspects, GS, Citibank, vary dark pools ...
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Important to non-Wall Streeters
Apparently this isn't uncommon. Difference being that it all gets settled by the end of the day and before any outside prying eyes notice; whereas the GameStop manipulators got caught short.
More like, the same team is STILL in charge.
Team refers to the DNC inner circle
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Timely Essay, a good one too!
I've been a bit skeptical of this GameStop frenzy and the people vs wall street narrative.
First, the guy behind the WallStreetBets GameStop play, user DeepFuckingValue, aka Roaring Kitty on youtube and Keith Gill for those who have looked a bit further, he holds multiple, high level securities trading licensee, and doesn't indicate anywhere he has these stock broker licenses.
From WallStreetOnParade.com:
Snip
This video from his Youtube channel, he makes his case (thesis) for why GameStop. (it's pretty long so...)
[video:https://youtu.be/GZTr1-Gp74U]
There is this also from WallStreetonParade.com about Dark Pools trading in these stocks for some time now.
But this sticks out to me
There this from none other than CNBC from Oct. 10th 2020, The Rise and Fall of GameStop
[video:https://youtu.be/dX6xBdcdUCg]
It's like they are making the case, GameStop is over.
Then there's this from Reuters.com about BlackRock
And speaking of "Dumb Money", i.e. retail investors, we can't leave out JPMorgan Chase, more from WallStreetOnParade.com:
(bold mine)
Think for a moment, equity capital and hedge funds invested in a company (Robinhood) to sell them the trade data of their (Robinhood's) retail investors. What on earth would they do with all that trade data before it reaches the ETF clearing houses?
Hmmm I wonder....
I'll wager $10 bucks Keith Gill gets prosecuted for Market Manipulation and the hedge funds walk free, at least legally...
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
Very worthy comment, thank you.
If the regulators do their freaking job, Gill and all the associated brokers will be in hot water. Those who want to play in this rigged game mustn't forget that it's a "Great Vampire Squid" (h/t Matt Taibbi) and they have more money and more insurance (Congress and WH) than ordinary people. And they spend 24/7 figuring out new scams to steal from ordinary people.
This more than anything
On one hand I can understand the ire of the WallStreetBets people for Robinhood stopping their trades, but on the other hand, they should have know Robinhood was front selling their trade data. It's always in the fine print just how they intended to screw you over.
Not to mention if it is FREE, then YOU are the product being sold. But I won't deny I wish I had a few hundred thousand shares of GameStop stock...
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
It's now being reported
that Robinhood had no choice. The amount required in their margin account to continue buying was increased by $3 billion. (Don't know all the mechanics on that because I'm not an investment pro or even an amateur. It's games that I find boring and not worth the headache to understand beyond a superficial level. Don't like gambling either.)
Wonder if some of the wealthy hedge fund customers are upset to learn that the major brokers get their information. After all they pay high fees for their privacy.
No way I’d take that bet
If he is who they say he is then I couldn’t serve on his jury.
Damn,
C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote
wrt the CNBC GameStop profile --
Objectively (once I set aside my disinterest in video games), GameStop should be around for a while. "A while" in the tech sector often isn't long, but GameStop has already hit the speed bumps and can see the ones ahead.
Counterfeiting Stock 2.0
I also read HackerNews frequently, the Silicon Valley venture capital news blog. Today was posted this link to a page of 'splainations that will take me some time to digest. The psychology is profound.
http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html
Enjoy one of the rare moments of enlightenment when the public can see Wall Street picking their pockets, but don't catch any hope the system might change before that same public hits the snooze button and goes back to sleep. During Obama's terms I learned most citizens read and comprehend text at an 8th grade level, the masses are not college educated. I just want to live in peace, for once in my life please.
Peace and Love
Our currency and our Stock Market are complete fictions.
Disclaimers aside, the Counterfeiting Stock 2.0 piece you linked describes a multigenerational criminal enterprise that answers to no law, hiding in plain sight. The days of owning actual Common Stock paper certificates of a known and certified quantity are long gone. Digital forgeries may well outnumber the actual number issued, for all we know, since the numbers “in play” are never tallied or reconciled by any meaningful accounting standard.
It is little wonder that market “crashes” inevitably benefit those who run the show, hidden behind the iconic scenery of Bulls and Bears, stripping the assets of the credulous who have entrusted their small fortunes expecting their small share of the prosperity and wealth.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
"bespoke tranche opportunity."
Nothing surprises me anymore, it just makes me sicker. Oh well.
Peace and Love
Yes, Robinhood front runs the trades.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
The movie “The Big Short” might be good background material here
Want to know what’s at the core of our financial system? Watch the movie or perhaps even better for still-in-the-Gutenberg-era, print-oriented people like myself, read the screenplay.
I forgot Michael Burry was an Aspie
...
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry blasts Reddit-fueled GameStop rally as 'unnatural, insane, and dangerous'
LOL and sheesh! How would he know? never mind
Woo! That was so last week. Another chapter, another book? Endless possibility.
Peace and Love
I read that Burry
Recall that Burry
What most likely lies ahead? Layman here I need simple terms
Predicting the future is hard.
However, when you say, "lies ahead," perhaps you had a narrow question in mind that could be intelligibly discussed.