Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller has filed a Grand Jury indictment against Paul Manafort, Trump's 2016 campaign manager, for various violations of US law, including money laundering, tax evasion, etc. in connection with work done for a former Ukrainian President and alleged Pro-Russia Oligarch.

Manafort Indictment

Here's a copy of the indictment against Manafort and his partner, Richard Gates. All of the violations of law are based on Manafort's work coordinating a lobbying campaign for Viktor Yanukovych, former President for the Ukraine. Yanukovych was removed from office as a result of the 2014 Euromaiden Revolution, in large part engineered by Obama administration officials, in particular Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, Victoria Nuland, because then Ukrainian President Yanukovych had rejected a deal with the EU in favor of one with Russia.

The charges against Manafort are based on the following alleged actions set forth in paragraph 1 of the indictment:

Defendants PAUL J. MANAFORT, JR., (MANAFORT) and RICHARD W. GATES III (GATES) served for years as political consultants and lobbyists. Between at least 2006 and 2015, MANAFORT and GATES acted as unregistered agents of the Government of Ukraine, the Party of Regions (a Ukrainian political party whose leader Viktor Yanukovych was President from 2010 to 2014), Yanukovych, and the Opposition Bloc (a successor to the Party of Regions that formed in 2014 when Yanukovych fled to Russia). MANAFORT and GATES generated tens of millions of dollars in income as a result of their Ukraine work. In order to hide Ukraine payments from United States authorities, from approximately 2006 through at least 2016, MANAFORT and GATES laundered the money through scores of United States and foreign corporations, partnerships and bank accounts.

The crimes charged consist of tax fraud and evasion, bank fraud, money laundering, hiding the existence of foreign bank accounts, failure to register as an agent for a foreign government and/or principal in connection with lobbying the US government, and Conspiracy against the United States regarding the aforementioned alleged scheme to evade taxes, violate laws regarding disclosure of their activities as a lobbyist for a foreign actor, and lying to US investigators about said scheme.

Although not named in the indictment, it's clear that one of the lobbying firms Manafort was working with to represent Viktor Yanukovych and lobby the Obama administration on his behalf was The Podesta Group. That firm is owned by John and Tony Podesta. Tony Podesta, brother to John Podesta, Hillary's 2016 campaign manager, has stepped down as head of that lobbying organization after it was revealed that Mueller was also investigating him and the Podesta firm.

None of the charges involve actions taken by Manafort while serving as Trump's campaign manager. So what has this to do with collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia? On its face, nothing at all. These are standard Tax fraud, money laundering and obstruction of justice claims based on Manafort's alleged scheme to hide his involvement in lobbying for Viktor Yanukovych and his political party from 2006 until 2014. However, Mueller, when he was appointed as Special Prosecutor to look into possible Russian collusion with the Trump campaign, was given a broad mandate as to the scope of his investigation. Not only can Mueller look into claims of collusion between the campaign and Russia but he is also pursuing any potential crimes by individuals he might come across during his probe, whether or not they are related to said collusion.

Manafort was Trump's campaign manager for a brief time, from June 9, 2016 until August 19, 2016, when he resigned as a result of information about his work for the former Ukrainian President and his Party of the Unions. Politico reported the Trump family forced Manafort's to resign because they did not believe he had been forthright with them about his ties to Viktor Yanukovych, who was viewed in the aftermath of the Euromaiden Revolution as a Pro-Russian Oligarch.

If Mueller had found evidence of collusion between Manafort and Russia during the campaign that might have pointed to violations of US law, he would have included that in his indictment, but there is nothing in there that points to such collusion. However, since his portfolio as Special Prosecutor allows him free rein as to alleged crimes with which can charge people, Mueller obtained a Grand Jury indictment against Manafort for his pre-Trump lobbying activities. The question as to why he would bother to do this is neatly summarized by the New York Times article on the indictment:

The charges against Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates center on a series of criminal allegations related to their lobbying for a pro-Russia government of Ukraine, not to Mr. Trump or the campaign. It is widely believed that Mr. Mueller is hoping to pressure Mr. Manafort into providing information about the central subject of his investigation.

In short, Mueller is using this indictment to gain leverage over Manafort in the hope that Manafort will "flip" and provide Mueller with evidence of actual collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. This is not an uncommon practice by prosecutors. They often bring charges against lower level associates of the main target of their investigation. They hope to use the threat of jail time and asset forfeiture to convince the defendant to plea to a lesser crime in order to testify against the main target of the investigation. In this case the primary target is Donald Trump, so Mueller wants something from Manfort to tie Trump to Russia, or at the least provide evidence of crimes that can be charged against other Trump associates. And Mueller is playing that game to the hilt:

As part of the pressure Mr. Mueller and his team is putting on Mr. Manafort, they are signaling in this indictment that if he is convicted of various charges, the government will seek to seize various properties and a life insurance policy linked to those charges — or any other assets he may have, if those are no longer available. This gives Mr. Manafort an additional incentive to cooperate as part of a plea deal that could allow his family to keep some of those assets.

Manafort at present is pleading not guilty. However, if push comes to shove, and his attorneys advise that it looks likely will be convicted on these charges, he may very well try to cut a deal with Mueller for less jail time and for non-foreiture of his assets. The big question out there is what of anything Manafort could provide Mueller that would demonstrate collusion between Russia and Trump's campaign, and who in the campaign was involved in said collusion or had knowledge of it. Considering Manafort spent such a short time as Trump's campaign manager, and he was fired at the first sign that he had been involved with a Ukrainian oligarch and former Ukrainian President, because of the optics of having a campaign manager who appeared to have Russian connections (if only through his work for a Ukrainian), I wonder what if anything Manafort has to offer Mueller for a plea deal.

The media is making a big deal about the fact that Manafort has been charged under 18 USC Section 371, entitled "Conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud United States." Many mainstream media hacks have falsely suggested this charge against Manafort proves Trump's campaign violated US law. They are conflating this garden variety conspiracy charge against Manafort with an alleged conspiracy between Trump and Russia to meddle in the US elections to disadvantage Trump's opponent, Hillary Clinton. That is simply not the case whatsoever.

The federal conspiracy statute is usually employed to target money laundering by drug traffickers and/or terrorist organizations. Here, however, as even the NY Times notes, Mueller is using statute to essentially charge Manafort and his partner for the underlying crimes of failing to register as foreign agents working on behalf of Ukraine, to conceal assets held in foreign banks and to evade paying taxes on monies received for their efforts. Calling Manafort and his partner's alleged actions a conspiracy to defraud the United States is technically correct under the terms of the statute, but it has nothing to do with anything regarding collusion by Trump with Russia.

However, media outlets have never let the truth get in the way of a good political scandal that attracts eyeballs to the story they wish to tell. And the narrative they are pushing is that Trump was in bed with Putin. Labeling the charges against Trump's former campaign manager a "Conspiracy against the United States" is in essence throwing chum in the water to attract media hacks already convinced that Trump is guilty of treason for working with Putin to deny Hillary the Presidency. Many are claiming this proves Trump or his campaign likely conspired with Putin. They are lying when they say that.

So what's it all mean, Alfie? Not all that much, unless and until we hear that Manafort is willing to cut a deal with Mueller that actually provides real evidence of collusion and shady dealing between the Russian government and Trump's campaign. I don't see that happening anytime soon. The Manafort indictment so far is a big nothing-burger and a distraction. It certainly isn't evidence of collusion, which is arguably supposed to be the focus of the Mueller probe. Whether in the future it becomes anything more than Mueller showing he can indict a Trump associate for crimes unrelated to the 2016 campaign is impossible to predict at this point.

However, there was another recent indictment that may prove more troublesome to Trump that is less well known and much less reported on in the media. An alleged Trump campaign volunteer, "former intern and researcher at the conservative Hudson Institute" and part of Trump's "foreign policy advisory team", George Papadopoulos, has struck a plea deal with Mueller on charges of lying to the FBI about contacts with Russian individuals. One was a "professor with contacts in the Kremlin" and the other a woman who claimed to be variously Putin's niece and or someone related to Putin with connections to Kremlin officials.

Mr. Papadopoulos stated in a legal document entitled "Statement of the Offense" that he lied to the FBI about these contacts. Tomorrow I will post about the Papadopoulos plea agreement, his unsuccessful communications with vagarious Russians that he passed on to senior Trump campaign officials in a failed attempt to set up a meeting between Trump and Putin, and what it means for the Mueller investigation going forward.