Wha' Happened? 538, Bubble Thinking, and Polls
For those of us who have been dismayed by our poll-obsessed political discourse, the elevation of 538 into Oz-like prestige has been...let's say irritating. But now the curtain has been rather rudely pulled aside. The live blog thread from 538 made for very interesting reading last night (and into the a.m.). What particularly jumped out was a comment made by Carl Bialik at 12:28 a.m. He wrote,
Here’s another possible explanation: The most recent Michigan polls in our database stopped contacting voters Sunday, the night of the last debate, held in Flint, Michigan. Although many thought Clinton performed better than Sanders in the debate, perhaps voters felt differently.
I'll say. Who do you think was among this "many" that thought the debate was won by Hillary? So it looks like some real insular thinking led to complacency and that led to trusting polls more than they ever should be trusted.
One last point. Much of 538's frenzied search for an answer has been instructive to watch. Perhaps, they say, Hillary voters thought it was a lock and stayed home, or voted for Bernie because of "heartstrings" (?). They have embarked on this wild speculative hunt to track down something that might be right in front of their eyes. Maybe, just maybe, Bernie won because he persuaded voters that his values were their values. Maybe, just maybe, he had a better case.
For those of you who don't know the source of my title, here:
Comments
w00t! A timely puncture in the stats bubble of 538
You're right on. I also followed their thread and enjoyed a bit of schadenfreude over their cluelessness. I kept thinking, "If numbers are all you have, you've got a bit of a problem seeing the forest for the trees when an insurgency upends your lovely spreadsheets"
Harry Enten in particular has been a cock-sure little cheerleader for the Clinton numbers; smugly pronouncing Bernie dead at every turn in the road because numbers rule his mind. I appreciated his honesty today in admitting his myopia. Although it doesn't change the fact that he's been exposed as a lousy prognosticator, along with Nate Silver. Aggregating polls is fine in a static universe as 2012 had been, but if that's all you have, a fast-changing terrain is gonna expose your lack of even a lick of common sense. I appreciated Silver's quick climbdown as well. He showed some humility and I hope he learns from this to add more tools to his toolbox and quit blindly trusting numbers - numbers are not the only trees in the forest
Lotsa pundits should follow 538's quick admission of error and review their blind spots and myopic thinking. Much humble pie to share with pundits today. In homage to Sinclair Lewis, it's too bad their salaries often depend on them not seeing what's obvious to us.
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Oh yes, darkmatter, I love your avatar - the 10th bull,
if I'm not mistaken. The 10 bulls is one of the gems of ancient Toaism. It sure makes for a wunnerful avatar!
Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.
Why thank you!
Yes, it's the sixth of the Ten Bulls ("Riding the Bull Home"). I see it as representing the acquisition of control, balance, and direction.
More on the Ten Bulls, please?
At least a link or two . . ..
The Ten Bulls, or The Ox-Herding Pictures
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ox+herding+pictures&t=ffsb&ia=images
https://friederishi.wordpress.com/2013/09/24/the-nine-stages-of-mental-d...
Ten Bulls
There are a number of artists who have created their own personal versions of the 10-stage story of Zen. The one that I used here I first came across years ago in a lovely book edited by Paul Reps called *Zen Flesh, Zen Bones*. Highly recommended.
Last night while watching chuckle-heads on CNN
(I wanted to see the returns come in) it confirmed to me again and again that these drones really have no clue. I'll offer just one example:
One of the white-haired newsreaders presented one of the exit poll questions, and it went something like this:
Does concern about international trade drive your voting choices?
(I know that ain't it exactly, but close enough for this example)
I live in rustbelt Wisconsin in an old automotive factory town, so not too different than many parts of Michigan. I know not a single person that would frame their trade concerns as (either for or against) international trade. Here everyone wants to trade with other countries. We did that for decades and decades and decades. It's the "free" trade scams we're all against, and the framing of their exit poll question, to me, reflects their ignorance or their desire to paint midwesterners as somehow against trade - kind of a lame attempt at a strawman.
Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor.
"Trade" straw man
There was a Hillary surrogate on MSNBC today bad-mouthing Bernie supporters for being "against trade." IIRC Debbie Stabenow.
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
MI polls were trending
The Michigan polls were trending toward Bernie even before the debate. Hillary's lead dropped precipitously from 30 to 17 points. Maybe 538 could have factored in the trend. The polls always look good for Hillary initially because of name recognition. Then Bernie delivers his message and wins lots of voters.
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
MI polls were trending
I have to wonder if Hillary is experiencing Deja Vu from 2008 as her "inevitability" melted away in the face of Obama. All of the forces of the DNC/DLC and the MSM have been mobilized to create the meme that Hillary is, again, "inevitable". Again, her inevitability has been shattered by someone who actually makes sense of what the country is going through. Obama managed to paint a picture of a more progressive future, without really being a progressive. He, single handedly drove down Democratic support in subsequent years with his cozy relationship with the Republicans. Eight years later, we have a real progressive, with a real record who is upsetting Hillary's apple cart. People are even more angry than they were when they put Obama in office; and, I hope, a little smarter for having been hoodwinked again as the neocon/lib war machine marches on. Bernie has changed the conversation to a message that working people have been waiting to hear.