USS Fitzgerald 1 month later: haze lifting from the "Crystal ball"

Thirty days ago today the USS Fitzgerald (DDG-62) was rammed by the Japanese-flagged container ship ACX Crystal causing significant damage. This is the third essay about this unmitigated disaster. Unmitigated because no matter how it happened NOTHING GOOD can emerge from this for the USN and USA.

In trying to make sense of this, I have researched half a dozen military YouTube channels, some of them "official" as well as 50+ non-military videos. The first two essays contained many citations to videos, which I will try not to repeat.

Background information:

Fitzgerald essay number 1: Initial skirmish of World War 3: the battle of the Black Sea

Fitzgerald essay number 2: World War 3: a second front opens.

In those prior essays, I described many of the extant theories about the collision. As predicted newer and certainly enticing theories have arisen since then. More about those later.

Question 1: What was the Fitz's mission?

Of course, don't expect any answers from the USN. In fact, I do not expect one shard of truth to be emitted by the USN. It is sad that we KNOW we cannot and will not get truth from the US government.

Where was it? Here is a map of the duty station in April 2017. Smack in the center of this sea map of sea of Japan, off the Korean coast (disregard the arrowhead on this screen shot):

This shows clearly that the ship was roughly equidistant from the coasts of North Korea (NK) and Japan.

Why was it there?

Most likely explanation: electronic listening (spying) (9:49). One juicy target would be a super-sophisticated GPS site in Hamamatsu, the workings of which the Japanese are not sharing with us--and who can blame them?

Another quite plausible explanation was that the Fitz was offshore Korea for anti-ballistic missile purposes. (7:01). The Fitz is (was) one of 6 Navy ships capable of downing an ICBM, all station in or near Japan, apparently serving on rotation. A few days after the F/C (Fitzgerald/Crystal) collision, NK launched a bunch of ballistic missiles. Coincidence?

Implications of fleet depletion: The USN desires a 355 ship fleet. Currently it has about 274, of which only about 240 are service-ready. Here is a report issued 3 days BEFORE the collision about Fleet configuration and expansion (19:23). At present due to the "inadequate" funding (yes, you read that correctly--despite billions of DOD money apportioned to the USN), the poor fellows can only repair existing ships, rather than produce new ones.

Here's a little pre F/C USN propaganda about guided missile destroyers

Question 2: Who dunnit?

I don't think it was Col. Mustard in the drawing room with the silver candelabra. So there are a number of possibilities:
1. Russia--yes, it's always Russia
2. China
3. NK
4. Filipino ISIS members
5. Japan

Let's dispose of choices 4 and 5 first.

Filipino ISIS: Yes, they had a powerful reason to disable anti-ICBM destroyers because of their own impending missile tests. But do they have the means? One scenario has it that Filipino members of ISIS (15:02) may have sabotaged the Fitz when the Fitz was in Subic Bay in April 2017. So how would that work? Possibly a logic bomb set to be remotely triggered, disabling the Fitz. Not a bad theory, really, but too many stretches of credulity and access arise.

Japan: as noted above Japan has secret GPS facility in Hamamatsu which they would like to remain secret. So would they ram the Fitz? Highly unlikely. The would they risk going to war with the US, one of its strongest allies and trading partners?

So what about the suspects with the most to gain? First we'll define what could be gained by such a plot.

NK: reason to destroy Fitz (6:19). As stated above, the ICBM program, which is NK's prime method to dissuade foreign intervention, had to be protected by ridding the Sea of Japan from anti-ICBM weapons.

China: China is aggressively expanding military influence in the South China Sea (SCS). They have constructed a number of islands in the SCS as a defensive perimeter and are zealous in protecting them as well as fleet expansion. In fact, only 1 week before F/C occurred there was a confrontation between the USS Dewey and the Chinese military when it was thought the Dewey was "too close" to the artificial islands.

Russia: the Bear does not like to be bullied. I discussed in a prior essay about the Black Sea defeat of the Donald Cook without a shot being fired. I am not certain at all that the military, and most especially not the homicidal neocons, realized the full implications on an emotional level. Perhaps they didn't "get it" in a cognitive way also.

Here is more documentation about the prior Cook attack, not referenced in essay number 1.

Khibiny (EMP) immobilization of the Cook (4:10) in Russian with English subtitles.

Russia takes credit for EMP paralysis of the Cook.

One thing certain, Comrade Putin does want to send a warning to Trump that he will not be pushed around by bullies, meaning our Exceptional Empire. Briefly, I will refer the reader to some interesting information about the largely useless US tomahawk attack on the al-Sharyat Syrian airbase. Russia shot down 36 tomahawk missiles at Al-Sharyat (9:33). I guarantee that you will never hear a word of this from the MSM.

Intermediate considerations

Before we get to the "how was it done?" question, we need to understand a few things: witness reports, investigation progress, damage assessment.

A. Witness statements

Big problem here. Navy has placed a gag order on all US Naval participants in the entire affair. Here is one citation previously posted in essay 2 about a sailor thinking the Fitz was being attacked (10:01)

Here's a comment from an experience USN sailor with lots of Yokosuka port experience but who was not actually a witness. Yokosuka is the Fitz's home base.

[video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP_DNq5osYQ]

This video is highlighted--because I want you to watch and listen about statements made by Capt Advincula (Crystal) and by Navy spokesperson (10:51). This video will be extremely important in understanding possible mechanisms of attack plus prevarications.

Here is a reference to Fitz crew readiness and the magic belowdecks phone call (8:28)

Here is analysis of Capt. Advincula's three lies about the collision. (10:11).

B. Investigation

This investigation is about as transparent as Comey's investigation of the Clinton emails. In fact, the Navy has blocked Japan from investigating the collision (14:03). This video also details inconsistencies in the proffered USN stories/explanations/fairy tales about why captain was in cabin at 0130 and why general quarters was not called immediately.

Here is a USN lie about the collision proven by ship courses during the episode (11:16).

C. Damage assessment:

This is the most important part of solving the mystery. Before one can postulate the means for execution of the F/C collision, we must have an accurate damage assessment. How severe was it. Where was it located. What mechanism(s) could account for the observable damage.

In addition to damage, the collision courses of the two ships are quite important. Much of that was discussed in essay 2.

In order to understand damage, comparison with other disasters at sea would be very helpful. Unfortunately, since 2014 there have been quite a few, which of course surfaced only briefly in the MSM before being sunk by the USN.

When F/C collision occurred on the open" sea, pictures of both vessels were restricted to areas above the water line. The Crystal was at least partially loaded with containers, while the Fitz had taken on large amounts of water, pushing hull normally above the waterline to below it. Therefore, neither areas of interest regarding lower hull damage to the Fitz were visible.

First consider the Fitzgerald damage compared to the USS Cole. Here is a video showing the Fitzgerald being brought into dry dock at Yokosuka (13:10). Narration begins at ~10:35 explaining the process.

Here is the official Navy version of the dry docking procedures as the Fitzgerald enters dry dock on 7/11/17. Two things of note about this article. Number 1, at the time of rescue, the captain was hanging onto the hull; so evidently he escaped captain's quarters--or perhaps had been on the bridge at the time of collision. Number 2, The incident occurred 6/17 but Fitz didn't reach port until 24 days later. Ostensibly the extra 24 days were required for underwater welding of the damaged hull.

The next video is made by a crusty, curmudgeonly old salt, navythomas8 assessing the heretofore below water line damage (14:54). The videographer explains alterations of the hull and basic ship construction, which begin with the keel. The sound quality is poor at times, but intentionally or unintentionally, this fellow is funny as hell.

A technical question arises about hull scorching (7:26). Scorch marks from the Cole, which was attacked by a small rubber craft containing 700 pounds of high explosives above the waterline are compared to scorch marks below Fitz's waterline. The implication is that scorching would not occur during a simple collision.

Another peculiarity is that the Cole was attacked during daylight with most of the crew awake. Although damage to the Fitz was much more extensive than to the Cole (10:51), only 7 sailors on the Fitz died compared to 17 on the Cole. Worth thinking about but doesn't really prove anything. However the low Fitz mortality count would comport with the theory that the Fitz crew had already assumed battle stations.

In addition to the Cole / Fitz comparison is a comparison to collision with DDG Porter (7:43) involving a much larger oil tanker than the ACX Crystal. The Porter / tanker collision was almost head-on yet damage to the Porter was less than to the Fitz. The Porter did not have significant below waterline damage.

The above-mentioned crusty curmudgeon explains what happens during a real collision (21:09). Unfortunately any bridge conversation around the time of this collision is unavailable or else non-existent. An example of what collision-related communication occurs during collision (16:07). Also ship monitoring occurs even off ship, such as by military satellite. This brings into question how the F/C collision could have occurred without anyone, even not on either ship, knowing. No good explanation forthcoming.

As mentioned in part 2 of this saga, the "bulbous bow" was discussed. It has been posited that the Crystal's bulbous bow caused the extensive below waterline damage to the Fitz. However it is posited by Floria Maquis that the Crystal's bulbous bow was incapable of inflicting such damage (8:45). Below are two pictures of the Crystal's bulbous bow taken the day after collision.

Crystal's bulbous bow port side:

Crystal's bulbous bow starboard side:

Fitzgerald below waterline patch (in dry dock):

Fitzgerald damage above and below waterline:

Note that the above water damage lies somewhat aft of the below waterline damage. How could this oblique damage be inflicted by a cargo container which was not listing? No matter what the angle of collision was, the damaged areas should be one above the other when the striking ship (Crystal) is not listing.

Now that the damage has been more fully, but still incompletely disclosed, we get closer to determine the mechanism of the damage. Simple collision? How does that square with below waterline damage obliquity, lack of bulbous bow damage. Something else underwater must account for the below deck damage.

We will leave the discussion at this time with much still uncovered. We need to determine the weaponry which in turn might aid in identifying the culprit.

More later.

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I will read everything tomorrow.
Thanks.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Another quite plausible explanation was that the Fitz was offshore Korea for anti-ballistic missile purposes. (7:01). The Fitz is (was) one of 6 Navy ships capable of downing an ICBM, all station in or near Japan, apparently serving on rotation. A few days after the F/C (Fitzgerald/Crystal) collision, NK launched a bunch of ballistic missiles. Coincidence?

Seems the most likely explanation for the Fitz' position and activity (or lack thereof) on the night in question.

But I'm still not satisfied about the intentions of the Crystal in this alleged attack.

The most likely scenario IMO is that it was simply an accident.

Think about it: you've got a spy ship with lights completely out sitting in what is one of the most heavily trafficked commercial shipping lane in the world. The super secret warship makes no attempt to contact the freighter except for one brief flash of a spotlight 10 minutes prior to the eventual impact.

It's the middle of the night. The freighter captain's in his bunk (where was the Fitz' captain?) and nobody left on the bridge has any reason to think anything is amiss. "Surely the US Navy warship knows how to avoid a massive commercial ship on a steady speed and course." The freighter continues on its merry, milk run way -

until the current unexpectedly pulls the (drifting?) frigate into its path. Crash.

It's a crowded neighborhood.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Alligator Ed's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger I doubt it.

Two corrections must be made to your comment:

1. The Fitzgerald did not signal the Crystal, it was the other way around.

2. Captain Advincula of the Crystal gave two conflicting stories. The first one was that he was asleep in his quarters. The second, and later version, has him awake on the Crystal's bridge signaling with horn and light their approach.

If I can ever get through all this (part 4), I will give you my opinion supported by my reasoning plus the facts as we know them (discarding some Naval alternative facts along the way).

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed

1. The Fitzgerald did not signal the Crystal, it was the other way around.

So IOW the Fitzgerald completely ignored the freighter, making an accidental collision more likely.

2. Captain Advincula of the Crystal gave two conflicting stories. The first one was that he was asleep in his quarters. The second, and later version, has him awake on the Crystal's bridge signaling with horn and light their approach.

I'd tend to think the first statement is more accurate. That is, before the insurance lawyers and Japanese officials got to him.

And consider this: if it really was some sneak attack by a hostile power, why would the enemy sail the evidence of the crime straight into both the port capital of our staunchest ally and home base for the US 7th fleet?

Seems like a funny place to run to.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Alligator Ed's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger a best guess solution. But I will tell you this, the USN knows exactly what happened and they are not telling. As I said in the essay, there is NO WAY the Navy can come out of this looking good.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed

@Alligator Ed NO WAY the Navy can come out of this looking good.

How does that collision even begin to happen? And especially to a ship with some of the most sophisticated detection and guidance systems on the planet (shooting down missiles takes pretty accurate targeting data after all).

The Captain of the Fitzgerald was severely injured and 'temporarily' relieved of command while he recuperates. Multiple investigations:

Within a day of the collision, investigations were begun by the United States Navy, U.S. Coast Guard, Japanese Coast Guard, Japan Transport Safety Board, and the insurers of the Crystal. The U.S. Navy's Manual of the Judge Advocate General (JAGMAN) investigation concerns the crew's operations, and is led by Rear Adm. Brian Fort, a former commander of USS Gonzalez, who now commands Navy Region Hawaii and Naval Surface Group Middle Pacific.[14][15][16] The U.S. and Japanese coast guards are investigating the cause of the accident.[17]

Gonna be interesting to read the reports.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Alligator Ed's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger as the Warren Committee or the 9/11 Committee. This is a no win situation for the USN--they will try to deodorize this as much as possible.

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earthling1's picture

the above deck damage being slightly aft of the below water line damage.
As I understand that the collision was not a T-bone event but a glancing blow, at an angle. The initial blow, being the "bulbous" bow would have pushed the smaller (less mass) ship reeling to the port side and forward in the water. Judging by the photos of the Crystal and its bulb bow, which extends well in front of the above water bow, seems to me would comport with the slightly aft damage.
But I could be wrong.
I'm seeing human error on both ships, hence the complete silence.
Thanks for keeping us up to date on this debacle. It will be interesting to see how far both sides go to sweep this under the rug.
Reminds me of the USS Forrestal.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Pluto's Republic's picture

Wow, it's fascinating, Ed. You have an interesting mind over at Alligator U. When I first read your Who Dunnit List:

1. Russia--yes, it's always Russia
2. China
3. NK
4. Filipino ISIS members
5. Japan

...I immediately dismissed three of them. I saw no sensible connection. But since then, those three are back in play, and my first picks are out. So many knowledgeable folks are wading in on this. At my stopping point, I found myself leaning toward the thinking of "Rain SilverSplash" who wrote:

I've just got done analyzing the AIS video of the Crystal's course for the time surrounding the collision with the USS Fitzgerald. Please read my analysis, and watch the linked video.

OK, Only an investigation will tell for sure, but from what I have been able to piece together from analyzing the AIS data, I believe I have a fair idea of what happened. At least my hypothetical situation fits the data. I am going to go with the 0130 collision, as it is well supported by the data.[see video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1b58yelh_c ]

Starting at 1600GMT or 0100 local (I will use local time from here on out as local time was used in the reports) ACX Crystal was steaming on a heading of 86 degrees at a speed of 18.1 knots. It was mid-watch, the ship was on auto-pilot. There may or may not have been a helmsman on duty. If there was, he was probably reading, playing a game, or watching a movie. At 0118 Crystal steered 16deg port, heading 70deg. I believe at some point just prior the auto-pilot had been hacked. Crystal continued on this heading at ~18Kn. Possibly, at some point someone recognized the Crystal's course had changed and alerted the Captain. As they approached the Fitzgerald, they would have seen its starboard lights (green) indicating it was transiting their lane to their starboard. I conjecture the Fitzgerald was station keeping (dead in the water, engines at idle), probably conducting surveillance or reconnaissance. I believe the crew of the Fitzgerald was aware of the approaching ship, but was not excessively alarmed. On its heading of 70deg it would have passed to the stern of the ship. At the point you might have expected the Crystal to alter its course to the port to increase the margin of the miss, it did the exact opposite. At 0131 it changed course 18deg starboard coming to a heading of 88deg at 17.3Kn. The drop in speed suggests it may already have reversed engines, preparing to disengage (with an 18deg course change, even though the Crystal slowed, it would have appeared to speed up to anyone watching from the Fitzgerald). I expect this is when all hell broke loose. The Crystal's Captain hit the warning lights, and the Fitzgerald's crew scrambled to get underway, but that would have been hopeless with the Crystal bearing down at better than 17Kn. A 9000ton ship does not just shift into gear and get out of the way. I do not believe the Crystal's crew was in control of the ship at this time. The Crystal struck the Fitzgerald at an oblique angle, reversed engines, and as it disengaged from the wreck came to a heading of ~160deg and left the scene on that heading at 11.2Kn. At 0136, the Crystal steered 25 deg port coming to a heading of 135deg and proceeded at 12Kn. It appears at about this time, the Crystals crew regained control of the ship from the auto-pilot, and at 0137, steered port 97deg coming to a heading of 38deg increasing speed to 15+Kn. The Crystal changed course again, coming to a heading of ~65deg. It is evident the ship was under manual, if inexpert helm control at this time. It proceeded on this course till 0204 when it began its "U turn". The turn was completed at 0209 and the Crystal came to a heading of 260deg increasing speed to ~14Kn.

When the Crystal disengaged the Fitzgerald, the Fitzgerald began drifting in a WNW direction. Had the Fitzgerald been underway at the time it was struck, its drift would have been north-easterly, or approximately 90deg off from what it was. The Crystal had eyes on the Fitzgerald and was proceeding under manual helm control using visual reference. At 0220 - 0225, the Crystal was on this return leg, no where near the Fitzgerald. As the Crystal came into the vicinity of the Fitzgerald, it started decreasing speed. As Crystal turned onto a heading of 241 at 0238 it was making only 10Kn and slowing. By the time it made the final turn at 0256 to investigate the Fitzgerald, it was only making less than 3Kn. It appears Crystal executed a turn around the Fitzgerald, eventually coming to a heading of 353deg. The Crystal never stopped at the Fitzgerald. This is a mystery. Obviously aware they had struck the ship, they should have stopped to render assistance. Instead, they began increasing speed. At 0308 they steered to a heading of 40deg then steered a bizarre, drunken course, eventually at 0357 steering port 90deg and immediately hard starboard 180deg coming to a heading of ~80deg and steaming out of the area.

It is evident the collision occurred at ~1632GMT or 0132 local, and that the Crystal was under control of the auto-pilot. The inexpert seamanship of the Crystal's crew after they regained control of the ship argues against the collision being manually executed. I suspect the USS Fitzgerald was under satellite surveillance by whoever hacked the Crystal. They used the Crystal as a guided munition, attempting to sink her. Even failing to sink the Fitzgerald, the mission was a success, as the Fitzgerald will be out of service for almost a year.

Technically, all five on the list can be placed at the scene of the crime.

It would be nice to know what kind of black op the Fitz was engaged in.

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Alligator Ed's picture

@Pluto's Republic @Pluto's Republic

I do not believe the Crystal's crew was in control of the ship at this time. The Crystal struck the Fitzgerald at an oblique angle, reversed engines, and as it disengaged from the wreck came to a heading of ~160deg and left the scene on that heading at 11.2Kn. At 0136, the Crystal steered 25 deg port coming to a heading of 135deg and proceeded at 12Kn. It appears at about this time, the Crystals crew regained control of the ship from the auto-pilot, and at 0137, steered port 97deg coming to a heading of 38deg increasing speed to 15+Kn. The Crystal changed course again, coming to a heading of ~65deg. It is evident the ship was under manual, if inexpert helm control at this time. It proceeded on this course till 0204 when it began its "U turn". The turn was completed at 0209 and the Crystal came to a heading of 260deg increasing speed to ~14Kn.

The U-turn holds the key to the mystery. See part 4 for my own theories. Thanks for the video transcript.

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enhydra lutris's picture

vertical. If the Crystal's bow and bulb were of exactly equal length, an angled strike would have the above water damage displaced from the below water damage, and with no other factors in play, the upper bow would strike first, indicating that the crystal was overtaking, as if the Fitz was crossing its bow in a forward direction.

Something else that could be at play is last minute evasive action. I don't know about Fitz' characteristics, but the old cans, in a helm hard over turn accompanied by a serious increase in throttle would heel significantly.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Alligator Ed's picture

@enhydra lutris

Something else that could be at play is last minute evasive action. I don't know about Fitz' characteristics, but the old cans, in a helm hard over turn accompanied by a serious increase in throttle would heel significantly.

Again therein lies a problem. I do not deny your observation, which if true would imply the Fitz had gained steerage. If that is true, then most likely the Fitz was on a covert-no radar mission as opposed immobilized by EMP or one of the several other methods yet to be report by me.

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