Two Primaries - Update 9 March

Submitted by WoodsDweller on Wed, 03/09/2016 - 7:58am

Delegate advantage (leader total minus trailer total), data from fivethirtyeight.com through Wednesday, 9 March.

In the South: Clinton +293
Outside the South: Sanders +74

Sanders avoided being shut out in Mississippi. His victory in Michigan only netted him 8 delegates.
Clinton continues to be a regional candidate, but she has only North Carolina and Florida left in her region. I don't expect them to be nearly so lopsided.
As the primary season moves outside the South the narrative will necessarily change as Clinton will not have big victories to celebrate. This should help expand Sanders' margins of victory, which is sorely needed to build his delegate count.

Tags:

2016 Democratic primary

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Comments

Submitted by non-prophet jim on Wed, 03/09/2016 - 8:50am

HRC absolutely appears

to have a very shaky foundation outside the south. Anyone who thinks she's the most electable candidate simply isn't thinking clearly.

It is possible she could gain some traction outside the south in coming weeks. Time will tell. My money (and hope) is with Bernie.

—

"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"

Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 03/09/2016 - 10:21am

Independents matter

It's what I've been saying for months

In Michigan, Sanders benefited from an open primary in which seven in 10 independents voted for him, according to exit polls. They made up 28 percent of voters. Clinton had a 57 percent to 41 percent edge over Sanders among the Democrats who made up 69 percent of those who voted.
Those numbers may not bode well for Clinton next Tuesday, when Ohio and Missouri hold open primaries, and Illinois and North Carolina allow voters to request Democratic ballots on primary day. Only Florida, with 246 delegates to the Democratic convention—the most to be awarded from a single state since the start of primary season—has a closed primary, and Clinton appears poised to win there.

I think I'm gonna make a diary this morning to emphasize this.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 03/09/2016 - 10:55am

Voter turnout

link

But even in relatively high-turnout years such as 2008 – and, so far, 2016 – primaries attract far fewer voters than general elections, even though (barring a contested convention) they determine whom voters get to choose from come November. In 2012, for instance, 129.1 million Americans, or 53.6% of the estimated voting-age population, cast ballots in the presidential election, versus fewer than 28 million in that year’s primaries. In 2008, 131.4 million people (56.9% of the estimated voting-age population) voted for president in the general election, more than twice the “record” number of primary voters that year.