Tulsi's Frustrating Polls

Tulsi's debate performance continues to make waves, and as of yesterday she had more than 153,000 unique donors, with a stated goal of reaching 160,000 by this upcoming Sunday. Her rate of gain has gone from 12,000-15,000 per day in the 3 days after the debate, to 3,000 per day a few days ago, to 2,000 per day yesterday. This is still above the 500 per day average gain she had prior to the second debate.

New polls are coming in, but they are interesting in a number of ways (and not all are good).

First, there has been only 1 single qualifying poll since the second debate--a Quinnipiac national poll. Tulsi scored 1%:

Quinnipiac Poll

This is interesting because within 4 days after the first round of debates in June, just about every qualifying pollster had released post-debate polls (Quinnipiac, CBS, ABC, CNN, Fox, NBC, etc.).

A non-qualifying Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll for New Hampshire has Tulsi polling at a fantastic 3.2%:

Suffolk/Globe Poll

It looks like the advertising and billboards Tulsi has taken out in New Hampshire is paying off.

In more questionnable polling techniques, YouGov, which feeds into many non-qualifying polls, but at least one qualifying poll, has in some instances not been including Tulsi's name (or Yang's) in their polling (but I suppose "Someone Else" counts?).

One such example.

Very interestingly, in just about all the post-debate polling, Kamala Harris is down sharply. In the Quinnipiac poll above, I believe she is down 5% from earlier polls. I think Tulsi landed a heavy hit in the debates.

So, the real question is, where are all the qualifying polls?!? Maybe their plan is to delay taking them for a couple weeks hoping that people forget about the debates?

There is also unconfirmed word that if Tulsi does not qualify for the next debates, she will probably be hanging it up and withdraw from the race. We're not there yet, but it might be wise to mentally prepare yourself if you're a supporter and think about who your next choice would be (whether that be Sanders or Warren or the Green Party, or whoever).

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Azazello's picture

We missed a debate qualifying poll by one person—here’s how you can help
Aloha Azazello —

Due to your efforts and Tulsi's amazing debate performance, we blew past our first goal of 130,000 donors to meet one of two qualifications for the DNC Debate Stage in September.

First, we want to hear your thoughts on the last debate! Click here to take our survey.

Now we need three more qualifying polls of 2% or more to land Tulsi on that debate stage. To ensure our voice and message is heard, please take the time to answer if you receive a call from a pollster or are presented with an online poll. As a reminder only YouGov and SurveyMonkey online polls are qualifying.

Here’s the full list of ways you can increase your chances of being selected for a debate-qualifying poll:

1)Take our debate survey now and be sure to keep answering additional surveys if prompted afterwards
2)Sign up for YouGov and take a few surveys with them
3)If you are called from an unknown number, remember that it could be a pollster. If you are selected to participate in a poll, make sure to specify if you're a registered Democrat or leaning Democrat and that you plan to vote for Tulsi in the primary election

Remember, the more online polls you take, the higher chance you have of being selected to take a poll on the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary. So whenever you're asked to take a poll, take it! We have thousands of supporters in every state—if only a handful of us are selected for a poll, it can make the difference.

We missed qualifying for one poll by being short just one person—so make sure you have the opportunity to make your voice heard. Let’s reflect the true grassroots strength of TULSI2020 and send Tulsi to the Houston debate stage in September!

Thank you for everything you do.

TULSI 2020

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CS in AZ's picture

@Azazello

I can only hope that email did not come from the official campaign, because it’s not true that ANY online polls count. Not anything on survey monkey or whatever. Actually that appears to be a pure marketing scam from an online polling company. The more surveys you take, the better your chances? Oy.

Here is the official list of which polls are qualifying.

Candidates must receive 2% or more support in at least four national polls, or polls conducted in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada. Each poll submitted must be publicly released between June 28 and Aug. 28 and be must be sponsored by one or more of the following organizations approved by the DNC: The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, the Des Moines Register, Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio, Quinnipiac University, University of New Hampshire, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Washington Post, and Winthrop University.

Don’t go rushing to fill out any online surveys to help any candidate. In fact, you might want to report that email to her campaign and maybe they can do something or at least tell supporters it’s false.

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Azazello's picture

@CS in AZ
The email seems legit to me.
It's advice about which polls count and how to be included in those that do.
I don't take any polls myself.
You getting any rain ?

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CS in AZ's picture

@Azazello

sorry if this sounds argumentative, but that email is not legit, and it’s “advice” is flat out wrong. It says:

As a reminder only YouGov and SurveyMonkey online polls are qualifying.

These online polls are NOT qualifying. That statement is false. Also the claim that they “missed one qualifying poll by one person” is clearly false. It’s a scam... sorry amigo. I just really dislike advertising in general, and especially false advertising, so I was moved to speak up.

Enjoy the rain. Smile

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Centaurea's picture

@CS in AZ

YouGov is an internationally recognized pollster. They administer polls sponsored by some of the organizations on the DNC-approved list, including CBS.

That said, I received the same email from Tulsi's campaign, and I was scratching my head at the line, "we missed that poll by only one person!"

It sounds like your standard silly online advertising BS. What next, "Help Tulsi qualify by using this one weird trick!"?

Here's what wikipedia has to say about the founder and CEO of YouGov. Stephan Kukowski Shakespeare I have to say, I have reservations. But then I think the same thing about the political polling industry in general nowadays.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Pricknick's picture

@Centaurea

They administer polls sponsored by some of the organizations on the DNC-approved list, including CBS.

That right there, says no way I trust them.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

@CS in AZ

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k9disc's picture

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

k9disc's picture

These debates are a sham. Chuck Schumer & Pelosi still in power after that epic fail, crafting rules on the fly to benefit their corporate donors?

When will we say enough is enough, already?

@k9disc

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

detroitmechworks's picture

@k9disc Seeing as the debates and policy positions taken have zero bearing on the actual process of ruling after the election.

Instead, here's Kermit the frog. Because sometimes it feels...
Same as it ever was...
same as it ever was...

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

Pricknick's picture

@k9disc
It's as it was intended.
The sham is what the politicians say versus what they intend to accomplish.
I will not be had again.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Centaurea's picture

@k9disc in his interview with Joe Rogan today, the Dem debates are "reality television".

Here's the entire interview. Well worth watching the whole thing, but the part about the debates is right up front.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

@Centaurea to the podcast shortly, but in looking at news headlines today, noticed this amusing takeaway from the JRE linked above. Actually I would guess that those in power with Ultra Top Secret knowledge probably would keep this info from someone like Bernie, especially as he's already announced he would go public if he ever received such info.

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magiamma's picture

From her campaign and took the survey with it. Last question was, more or less- Did you know it’s important to answer your cell if you don’t know the number bc it might be a survey? So now I will for the time being bc I want her in the debates.

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Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

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Pricknick's picture

@magiamma
No cell.
Can I call you on your cell?
Will you answer?

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Wally's picture

There is also unconfirmed word that if Tulsi does not qualify for the next debates, she will probably be hanging it up and withdraw from the race.

I tried to track it down and it seems Mike Gravel said something to that effect during an interview where he also somewhat contradicted himself on something else.

I continue to hope she'll get into the next debate.

It ain't over till it's over.

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Centaurea's picture

@Wally
no matter what happens with the Dems.

She's said that she's running for president as a Democrat because this is where and how she thinks she can make the most difference at this time.

If circumstances change, from what I've observed of Tulsi, she will respond accordingly, adapt her strategy, and re-focus her efforts.

If and when she drops out of the race for the 2020 Dem nomination, I suspect she would turn to campaigning for Bernie as she did in 2016.

Alternatively, as I've stated before, I could see her being the right person to successfully create and lead a third party, if and when that route becomes necessary and appropriate.

There are a lot of variables in play. What we do know, I think, is that Tulsi's in it for the long haul.

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"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi

"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone

Results can be skewed by what questions asked and how many times a candidate is mentioned: http://freddonaldson.com/2019/08/06/shes-most-googled-dem-in-primary-deb...

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Fred Donaldson

Pluto's Republic's picture

@Fred Donaldson

...deconstructing the poll question. Many of the polls in this primary have been skewed. An early survey poll of the candidates showed Biden as the breakout candidate, on closer inspection we discover that no one under age 60 was counted in that section of the poll. The media has been suppressing candidate exposure. More of the same seeking a different outcome.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Pluto's Republic

On how congress just screwed more American workers.

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America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery

Pluto's Republic's picture

@snoopydawg

I just today got that feeling that the Democrats have already missed the brass ring. Again. The mistakes are starting to pile up. They are serving their corporate masters in the open, convinced that people hate Trump so much that they cannot lose.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Pluto's Republic

Yeah that's all they are right? Not only are democrats working with republicans on their legislation they are also helping McConnell get his judges appointed. Old timers like DiFi are involved in this.

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America is a pathetic nation; a fascist state fueled by the greed, malice, and stupidity of her own people.
- strife delivery