Tulsi's Frustrating Polls
Tulsi's debate performance continues to make waves, and as of yesterday she had more than 153,000 unique donors, with a stated goal of reaching 160,000 by this upcoming Sunday. Her rate of gain has gone from 12,000-15,000 per day in the 3 days after the debate, to 3,000 per day a few days ago, to 2,000 per day yesterday. This is still above the 500 per day average gain she had prior to the second debate.
New polls are coming in, but they are interesting in a number of ways (and not all are good).
First, there has been only 1 single qualifying poll since the second debate--a Quinnipiac national poll. Tulsi scored 1%:
This is interesting because within 4 days after the first round of debates in June, just about every qualifying pollster had released post-debate polls (Quinnipiac, CBS, ABC, CNN, Fox, NBC, etc.).
A non-qualifying Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll for New Hampshire has Tulsi polling at a fantastic 3.2%:
It looks like the advertising and billboards Tulsi has taken out in New Hampshire is paying off.
In more questionnable polling techniques, YouGov, which feeds into many non-qualifying polls, but at least one qualifying poll, has in some instances not been including Tulsi's name (or Yang's) in their polling (but I suppose "Someone Else" counts?).
Very interestingly, in just about all the post-debate polling, Kamala Harris is down sharply. In the Quinnipiac poll above, I believe she is down 5% from earlier polls. I think Tulsi landed a heavy hit in the debates.
So, the real question is, where are all the qualifying polls?!? Maybe their plan is to delay taking them for a couple weeks hoping that people forget about the debates?
There is also unconfirmed word that if Tulsi does not qualify for the next debates, she will probably be hanging it up and withdraw from the race. We're not there yet, but it might be wise to mentally prepare yourself if you're a supporter and think about who your next choice would be (whether that be Sanders or Warren or the Green Party, or whoever).