Tulsi at 6%, Clear Fifth in Latest NH Poll
Today, Veteran's Day, was good news pollwise for the two veterans in the Democratic field, with the release of a "qualifying" Quinnipiac poll of over 1000 likely Granite State voters. Not one of the 2020 Dem candidates got above 20%, but here are the very interesting results:
Biden 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Bernie 14%
Tulsi 6%
Yang Gang 4%
Klobuchar and Steyer 3%
Harris, Booker, Castro, Bennet 1%
Looks like this represents Tulsi's third qualifying poll (four are needed at 4% or above) for the Dem debates (she's already made the 10-candidate field for next week in Atlanta) and it's also Yang's second. A further breakdown shows Tulsi's strongest group is Independent voters, where she is tied with Warren at 10%.
On the other hand, ironic poetic justice to see Miss "I don't want to sound immodest, but I'm a top tier candidate" down at the bottom of the heap. Guess NH voters are able to sniff out BS when they hear it.
Note: This is my first diary here on C99, I posted one on DK back in July and then got summarily booted off the forum by some Harris supporters two weeks later (I guess this gives them an excuse to say how few Tulsi supporters are there). Not that I'm bitter by any means, but any love here would be appreciated!
JC
Comments
Welcome and...
Here is my take. First I am am Tulsi supporter to be clear.
What I have witnessed is that Tulsi becomes stronger as people get to know her. I think that is due to two reasons. First, she is rational and second is that her policies speak to everyone. Tulsi has spent a lot of time campaigning in NH. So that helps with her numbers in this poll. The problem is that she is running on a shoe string campaign.
What I have seen after looking at the cross tabs in the latest poll is that Tulsi has enormous crossover appeal. I spent several years with a local weekly Peace vigil and this confirms what I learned from my own on the ground experience. People, regardless of their self identified political leanings, are very much against all these regime change wars.
I keep hoping that Tulsi will continue to spark the interest of the people in these big picture policy issues that ultimately affect us all.Without addressing the MIC. the US can never move forward on all the domestic needs that face us.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I hope Tulsi speaks on Regime Change in Bolivia Soon
She hasn't called it out as a military coup yet as far as I've found. I'd love to be corrected. Bernie, Ilhan, and Alexandria have at least addressed the matter via twitter. Hopefully, Tulsi will soon show some solidarity with Evo Morales.
Me too.
This is extremely important that she speak out immediately on this regime change.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
@gulfgal98 Which crosstabs do you
Which crosstabs do you think indicate crossover appeal?
She is doing well (relatively) independents, and is finally making inroads with women, which is good for her. And she is doing very well with conservatives (who will ultimately go with Trump in the general) but she is doing surprisingly bad with voters who identify as somewhat or very liberal and even worse with those who ID as Democrats, that spells trouble for any shot at the nomination.
She needs to expand her appeal beyond the narrow category of anti-establishment moderates. But the Debates might give her the chance.
Welcome!
I'm surprised it's only Yang's second (but looking over, Tulsi has 1 national poll on him). Hoping at the least that CNN/UNH repolls New Hampshire and Tulsi can gain an extra 1% since that might be her best shot at getting to the December debate. Also hoping to see Buttegieg deflate, but supposedly he's been flooding the early states with commercials.
December debate - DNC qualifications
To make the December debate (not the upcoming November debates), candidates must hit 4 percent support in at least four DNC-approved polls of primary voters nationally or in early voting states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina) — or, instead, they can qualify by hitting 6 percent in two approved early state polls. Candidates must also bring in donations from 200,000 unique donors, with a minimum of 800 donors in 20 states, territories or Washington, D.C
Peace
FN
"Democracy is technique and the ability of power not to be understood as oppressor. Capitalism is the boss and democracy is its spokesperson." Peace - FN
Tulsi at the debates
Speaking authoritatively as someone who has fought in wars, is a welcome "off-script" candidate bearing witness to what is essentially a staged performance the DNC is calling democracy in action.
Congrats on your first essay here.
There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier
Oh, go ahead -- be bitter.
It's called for.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
this is fun!
Interesting Note:
Undecideds in this poll were still at 14%.
(If Tulsi got all the undecided votes, she'd be tied for 1st place!!!)
People are pretty surprised at Buttigieg's rise, even beating Bernie. Now I can start to understand some Bernie fans concern (like Abby Martin) who are starting to talk bad about Tulsi--I think they are concerned she is depressing Bernie's turnout as she gains percentage points. There have been a few previously positive Tulsi lefties who have in the past few weeks started bashing her a bit. It's confusing.
Edit to add link to the poll.. I didn't see a link in the original post.
Second edit: Too bad Harris is now at 1%. Oh how times change . . .
I didn't know Abby Martin is supporting Bernie
I'm actually somewhat surprised she isn't supporting Tulsi.
Then again, she's always been extremely passionate about South American politics.
And what with this recent military coup in Bolivia forcing Morales to resign, the fate of Lula in Brazil, etc., I can certainly relate to how fearful she probably is if Bernie doesn't pull off the chance of our lifetime.
Yes
I mean I don't know for sure, but Abby Martin has been very positive on Bernie, and until recently Tulsi as well (although less so than Bernie). I'm guessing she'll vote for Bernie.
Bernie is much more popular with women than Tulsi is. I'm not sure why that is (I'm not complaining about Bernie's sake, mind you, but Tulsi does have very, very low women favorability).
More Popular with Men
on the more popular with men than women, I've noticed that too, and got two theories: (1) Men find her attractive and that's a motivation and (2) a higher % of men have military service, and I believe Tulsi's record appeals to veterans and veteran groups.
Humans being human beings.
Women react negatively to attractive women, whether consciously or not. Especially if they're watching a debate with their dude, and he goes all WHO IS THAT HOT BABE?!?!?
And men react positively to attractive women, whether consciously or not.
I bet TG wasn't terribly popular in high school, though. Between the acne (evidenced by her complexion) and her very conservative father, I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't go on very many dates.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
The unconscious at work
You got that right.
@UntimelyRippd
It doesn't seem to be a problem for Warren (who is doing much better with women than with men) or even Klobuchar (who is low with everyone, but lower with Men than Women). In fact Tulsi is the only female candidate who is doing worse with woman than with men.
I am not sure why that is, but I highly doubt it is based significantly on attractiveness.
Huh?
I write a comment suggesting that women may be biased against TG, and men biased towards her, because she is physically attractive ... and you make some weird counterargument that no such effect is evident in the poll results for two other women, neither of whom even in her nubial prime was as physically attractive as TG at 37?
come on!
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
@UntimelyRippd
You make a fair point. allow me to provide a better counterpoint.
It is not that I think that such a bias never occurs, but I don't think it would occur to this amount.
1. Most people shallow enough to be so greatly influenced by looks, are not likely to even be interested enough in politics to pay attention yet.
2. Ms. Gabbard is attractive for a Presidential Candidate, but she is not so beautiful (IMHO) that people are getting politically active over it. The TV is full of lots of pretty faces.
If i had to guess, I think she skews toward conservatives and men, slightly because of her lukewarm pro-choice stance, and in case like NH, Trump is basically unopposed, so Conservative men are more likely to see Tulsi as someone who shares their disdain for the Democratic establishment in general, and HRC in particular.
But most of all she mainly appears on conservative shows, with a mostly male audience. Please note, I am not condemning her choice to do so. There is a strong argument, especially for a less well-known candidate, for appearing anywhere that will have you. Conservative shows, in addition to reaching an untapped portion of the electorate, are likely the only ones consistently inviting her. They are mutually using one another. Hannity loves having a Democratic congressman come on and talk about how the party is corrupt and in disarray, and Tulsi is increasing her recognition in the best way available.
No, she's not depressing Bernie.
Rigged motherfucking bullshit is depressing Bernie.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal How so? Granted the DNC
How so? Granted the DNC treated him unfairly in in 2016, but what is rigging it against Bernie this time?
First
Are you assuming that, despite the fact that it's the same people in charge of the same organization, that somehow it being 2019 rather than 2016 has made them treat Bernie fairly? Or treat anybody fairly?
Rather a big leap when the organization itself declared on the record, in court, that it is under no obligation to provide a fair contest, an accurate vote count, or to consult with voters in any way.
Second, there's the media. If you think they are treating Bernie fairly, then we don't really have anything to discuss. If you, however, think that they are treating Bernie unfairly, but that they are separate from the Democratic Party, you are ignoring large amounts of evidence, including direct evidence, that the non-Fox media corporations obey Democratic party dictates, right down to journalists running their political articles by the Clinton campaign in 2016 to get an OK before they published, right down to the Pied Piper strategy, in which those four corporations absolutely did the Clinton Campaign's bidding.
There is no daylight between the Clintons and the DNC. There is no daylight between the DNC and the major media corporations--with the exception of Fox. They've all become like Fox: media arms of whichever political party they line up with ideologically.
Third, there have been plenty of comments from prominent Democrats, donors and media figures, that they would support Anybody But Bernie, as well as plenty of attempts to misinform on Sanders' signature issue, which is Medicare for All.
All of this is unfair, given that party leadership should not play favorites with its candidates more than a year out from the election, which they have. But then again, as I said up top, the Democratic Party has already stated, on the record and in court, as a legal defense, that it doesn't need to play fair, and that if those in the party who are neither rich nor powerful don't like it, they can fuck off.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Biden still #1
Shaking my head. Another election to sit out.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Patience, grasshopper.
He's dotty. It will out.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
You could look at it another way,
80% prefer someone else. I guess that's more positive. But also 85% prefer someone else to Bernie.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Well, apparently 14% aren't yet expressing a preference.
And has been noted, this cannot be imagined to be a representative sample of, um, anything, really.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
It's a representative sample of the banking industry.
Bankers deserve opinion polling too! Don't hate.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
If you believe corporate polling
. . . and even then the aggregate average is closer to 20% for Bernie and there are multiple candidates who are splitting each others' votes.
I don't believe corporate polling.
We'll start finding out in less than three months months, won't we?
Yes we will
Unless the DNC starts playing California tricks in NH and Nevada tricks in IA.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Do we believe these polls anymore?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I could believe that Warren overtook or even trounced
Bernie.
When they try to get me to accept Biden being the frontrunner apparently no matter what, and Pete Buttigieg who had been polling in single digits the entire time suddenly overtaking Sanders for no apparent reason, then the wrestling booking has gotten a bit too much for this mark to believe.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
I suspect Mayor Pete benefits from the recent drop outs more than others. If you feel, like so many of us, that Biden is too old or too out-of-touch, but worry about "electability" (A nice way of saying bland white guy), when Beto drops out, then Buttigieg is likely going to be the next jar of mayonnaise on the shelf.
Drop-Outs? What about the Recent Drop-Ins?
Yeah, but I think you also have to take into consideration the two most recent DROP-INs (since this thread was posted), who are Bloomberg and Patrick, whom I suspect will draw from those in the so-called "moderate" lane, in particular, Biden and Buttigieg.
I still see this as a wide-open race, very fluid at this point. I mean, look at what's happened already: Beto, who was at over 10% at one point, is already out, and Harris, who was anointed as one of the top three or four at 15%, is now polling in the 3% range.
Dotty--a fine word
We, in the medical profession have found that the ICD-10 prefers to categorize Mr. ByeDone's neurological condition as a form of dementia. Statistically most likely is Alzheimer's disease, with next most likely being multi-infarct dementia, followed statistically by degenerative dementias, other.
But what the eff do I know?
Biden STILL at the top of the heap
alone is enough for me to completely disregard this poll. In fact, I question the reliability of most pre election polling to the same extent that question the veracity of what passes for news these days. Both are more likely the result of efforts to shape our perception of reality than to reflect it.
“The story around the world gives a silent testimony:
— The Beresovka mammoth, frozen in mud, with buttercups in his mouth…..”
The Adam and Eve Story, Chan Thomas 1963
Most pollsters agree
From what I have read, most pollsters agree that the reliability of polling this early in the race is a crap shoot. My take on Biden is that many people who have not taken the time to be informed on the issues know him as a familiar name associated with Obama who still remains popular among older and black voters.
What surprises me is how low Bernie is polling. This could be due to a flaw in the poll sample which would be my first guess.
It is weird how Tulsi polls better with men than women. I personally do not believe it is a female jealousy thing, but has more to due with her very assertive personality. Tulsi is a person who inspires confidence that she is not going to fold under pressure. The bigger key for me is how well Tulsi polls with Independents.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I love it that she won't take any crap.
And fights back. Bernie is angry but doesn't fight back when attacked or cheated. Not a good quality in a leader. He shouldn't lose his head but he should retaliate.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
efforts to shape our perception of reality than to reflect it
Nah they wouldn't do that would they?
Damn right they would and that was why ole Joe was ahead in the polls even before he jumped into the race. Manufacturing consent for a rigged primary and Hills knows who is going to be appointed.
Scientists are concerned that conspiracy theories may die out if they keep coming true at the current alarming rate.
I've spotted what I think is a flaw in this poll
I suppose I'm up to date on polling methods since I deal with so many. These days most polling is done part by phone and part online. People in the voter database are either called or texted and invited to respond. If they respond online they're linked to their voter demographics.
This is the modern way which works well because a lot of people will not answer their phone. But of course they vote so they can't be excluded from polling.
Thanks to apenultimate's link I see that the methodology used here includes only those who answered the phone, whether landline or cell. To me, this exclusion benefits Biden and Buttigieg. There's no way, though, to tell how much it helps them.
Interesting Observation ...
Because of all the crank calls (even if being on the National "Do Not Call" registry), I generally don't answer if the landline rings, but generally respond to calls on the cell phone, even if the number listed is unfamiliar. Wonder if that means I'm less likely to get included in these polls ...
I don't have a landline anymore
I only have a cellphone. I get a lot of "spam" calls on it, maybe because it's my only phone number.
Back when I had a landline, I answered most calls. In the dark ages (pre-1990 or so) before there was caller ID, we really had no choice but to answer all calls. Getting my first answering machine in the late '80s was a wonderful thing, because it gave more freedom not to be at the mercy of the ringing phone.
With the cellphone, unless I know who's calling, 99% of the time I don't answer. I've also blocked a lot of political spammers looking for $$ (the DCCC as a prime example.)
It's possible that pollsters have called me, but I guess I'll never know.
"Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep ... Don't go back to sleep."
~Rumi
"If you want revolution, be it."
~Caitlin Johnstone
@Shahryar They're mostly calling
They're mostly calling old people with landlines
Could definitely be that
No actual numbers for age or anything else.
Machine talk
At our house, we're old people (I guess... both pushing 67). My dear wife still insists that we keep the landline. I don't want it, but waddayado. Well, you compromise. So, we came to an agreement.
The landline stays, BUT all the landline phone's ringers are silenced. Wife can still call outbound. The printer's fax component is hooked to the landline and picks up all calls immediately. No sound. Then the printer's fax locks the line and starts its screeching fax-y sound stuff. Most annoying, but only someone on the other end can hear it. Since almost all the calls are robo (we can see a list of who called), there's no loss. Machine talking to machine. They're happy and so are we.
Polling folks are left in the cold. Too bad. I'm paying for that microphone ... as someone once said.
That would include me.
Great old landline with built-in answering machine that uses cassettes!
I set it for four rings, then it plays my "you have reached" message.
Have done this so long that I seldom get more than one fake call a day.
And that's giving the pollsters the benefit
of the doubt.
It's assuming that they don't simply sit around a table and make this shit up.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Welcome JC
You won't get invited to leave as long as you don't try to eat the natives. Divergent opinions are welcomed. I exiled myself from GOS on the Ides of March 2016 when Kos decreed sovereignity over political expression conforming to His Wisdomness.
Feel free to express yourself
To quote my boyfriend
Biden in 1st place? Buttigieg in 3rd, above Bernie Sanders?
It was a poll of one. They asked Jamie Dimon what he preferred.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
That Buttigieg percentage was shocking.
I saw that and thought WHAT THE HELL??! And the Sanders percentage was even worse.
If that’s anywhere near accurate, we’re in big trouble.
We Are in Big Trouble / duplicate deleted
duplicate deleted
We Are in Big Trouble
The left is not uniting behind Bernie. Instead, support for Tulsi and Yang is growing but just enough to have an effect on Bernie's vote, not enough for either to actually even get the 15% of the vote they need to get delegates. The Fauxgressive Warren's base is essentially the same as Hillary's but also taking away a hunk of votes from Biden and some from Bernie. I almost wish Hillary would enter the primaries coz she would take votes away from Biden and Warren. But she won't do that because it will help Bernie (as Nate Silver tweeted today). She will only enter the fray if she's sure the top three of Biden, Warren, and Bernie can't win the nomination on the first ballot. Then, she might enter a couple or a few southern primaries she's sure she can win at the tail end right before the convention to indicate she's got the momentum, broad-based support, blah blah blah.
what is so great about Yang ?
I have difficulties to trust him.
https://www.euronews.com/live
Identity Politics
He's young. That's an identity these daze (just as it was back in the day, though, I guess although now we're denigrated via OK Boomer memes and responses).
He's a techie which is also an identity of sorts.
And he play his Asian-American background pretty hard and straightforward.
Maybe there's something else. I've noticed a few people here viewing him at least somewhat favorably.
I figure he's just auditioning for a job in a Dem Party administration.
Tulsi was only polling at 6%
in that poll--if it were accurate.
I really don't think Tulsi and Yang are the problem.
The real problem is that elections aren't being run as elections, but as pro wrestling.
If that weren't so, the problem for Bernie would be Warren, who was clearly put into the race to end his candidacy, and hopefully his movement.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Looks like Deval Patrick is announcing
. . . which will take a chunk out of Warren's votes in New England to the benefit of Bernie and probably Biden, too. Let's not forget that some think he's a better natural heir to Obama than Biden: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/deval-patrick-or-jo... I have a feeling that Obama is putting him up to it, not so much to support his candidacy towards the nomination but to help out his ol' buddy Joe.
Also of note, in the Iowa caucuses, if Tulsi caucusers do not muster up 15% of the vote for her, they can then switch to the candidate of their second choice which I hope will be for Bernie. I'm not sure if that's the way it works in other caucus states as well. So yea, Tulsi's not a problem in that sense but I'm admittedly not feeling too good about her because of her hesitance to at least pose some reservations about what has been and is going on in Bolivia and her reluctance (refusal?) to criticize Biden, especially his Iraq vote. And if she keeps getting around 5% of the vote, it does cut into Bernie's numbers, and without 15% of the vote in a primary voting state, her votes get proportionately distributed to other candidates who do.
I'm not at the point where I'm condemning Tulsi to the extent of Abby Martin, but I think folks on the left should consider what Abby has to say.
I'd be surprised if Tulsi's supporters
didn't go to Bernie--unless they sit the whole thing out.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
I suspect that's right. Per Morning consult 52% of Gabbard supporters are considering Bernie, that is tied with Yang (who also won't get 15%) and higher than the number of Gabbard supporters considering anyone else, although just barely.
That said Gabbard is only polling at 2-3 Percent in Iowa, so even if the plurality of her supporters go to Bernie, I doubt it will move the needle much (unless Bernie is at around 14%).
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
I suspect that's right. Per Morning consult 52% of Gabbard supporters are considering Bernie, that is tied with Yang (who also won't get 15%) and higher than the number of Gabbard supporters considering anyone else, although just barely.
That said Gabbard is only polling at 2-3 Percent in Iowa, so even if the plurality of her supporters go to Bernie, I doubt it will move the needle much (unless Bernie is at around 14%).
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
I suspect that's right. Per Morning consult 52% of Gabbard supporters are considering Sanders, that is tied with Yang (who also won't get 15%) and higher than the number of Gabbard supporters considering anyone else, although just barely.
That said Gabbard is only polling at 2-3 Percent in Iowa, so even if the plurality of her supporters go to Sanders, I doubt it will move the needle much (unless Sanders is at around 14%).
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
I suspect that's right. Per Morning consult 52% of Gabbard supporters are considering Bernie, that is tied with Yang (who also won't get 15%) and higher than the number of Gabbard supporters considering anyone else, although just barely.
That said Gabbard is only polling at 2-3 Percent in Iowa, so even if the plurality of her supporters go to Bernie, I doubt it will move the needle much (unless Bernie is at around 14%).
It ain't accurate--and we are in trouble.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
On the other hand
Biden and Bernie are going to have a hard time pulling more support then they have. People know and have decided. Warren is affected by that, albeit to a much lesser extent.
Most people have not formed a strong opinion on the rest, and accordingly, could be like what they see.