Trump coming in 3rd place in multiple demographics
Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 07/20/2016 - 6:15pm
If Donald Trump wins in November, he'll have to do it without several important demographics.
An interesting nugget from the big new Pew Research Center poll of the 2016 election: Among voters under age 30, Donald Trump is at 21 percent … and Gary Johnson is at 22 percent.
Yes, Trump is in danger of finishing third among young voters -- at least according to this one poll.
But it isn't just that one poll.
...according to a new poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics.
Perhaps even more surprising is that Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is running neck-and-neck with Republican Trump among multiple groups of voters ages 18-29, the poll found.
Perhaps most embarrassing is how Trump appears to be poised to lose their most cherished demographic of all - the military.
Military troops favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson for president over Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, according to a new survey.
Johnson garnered 38.7 percent of the active duty vote, versus 30.9 for Trump, and 14.1 for Clinton, according to the survey, which was conducted via the popular military personality Doctrine Man.
Although the survey was not a scientific poll with a margin of error, it provides a snapshot of the preferences of about 3,500 active duty, reservists, retired and former members of the military and their family members, 95.7 percent of which were registered voters.
It is probably not a surprised that Trump is coming in third among minority voters.
... in a RealClearPolitics average of national polls conducted between June 24 and July 12.
Johnson is only two points behind Trump among both all millennial voters and men (15 percent), and just three points behind among women (11 percent). He’s out-polling Trump among blacks (9 percent to 2 percent) and Hispanics (14 percent to 5 percent).
So Trump could easily come in third with
1) millennials,
2) blacks
3) latinos
and come in second with military voters.
How in the Hell is this even a close race?!?
Oh, right. Voters don't like Clinton either.
Right now, pollsters that include Johnson and, less frequently, Stein are showing Clinton with a slightly smaller lead than pollsters that test only Trump and Clinton....
The majority of pollsters (12) have Clinton’s margin over Trump shrinking when at least one third-party candidate is included. The difference in margins, however, varies among pollsters, and a few, such as Ipsos, have Clinton’s lead rising by the tiniest of bits when at least Johnson is included. Overall, including third-party candidates takes about 1 percentage point away from Clinton’s margin, on average.
Comments
With Jill included...
I bet those 18-29 numbers look a lot different.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Clinton will be in first place...
with the most important demographic of all - the Diebold demographic.
It's a big club...and you ain't in it!
If people would just stop worrying
and vote for the best person, the best person would either:
A) Win
or
B) make Diebold fuckery so obvious that the whole charade would come tumbling down on them
You know damned well it's fixed. The only way we're going to PROVE it is for a whole bunch of people to vote for anyone but the D or R party candidates. It is up to us. We have to expose them. If it's fixed like we think it is, then we have nothing else to lose by voting for The Other.
My Facebook is alive
with people white shaming me into voting Clinton - I know right ? Donald is so repulsive that they just know he would be a worse President. You can't really argue with that. I mean Donald is worse so who cares what Hillary has ever done...he's worse so shut up and vote for HRC.
If these people would just say, hey what if we supported someone who has our values like Stein - where would the polls be then ? But that ain't gonna happen. They are so chicken shit scared of Trump.
Same here!
I'm accused of being opposed to Hillary because I'm "straight,white and privileged." Guilty as charged, I guess (although I'm not sure about the "privileged" part). And the comments are all about how Trump is utterly terrifying, and somehow my not being on board with HRC makes this worse.
Honestly, I can't follow the logic, if there is any. Maybe I'll just post dog pix for a few days and let people cool off.
Hell is empty and all the devils are here. William Shakespeare
Here's the image they're spreading
This is, of course, hippie-punching. Alternate caption: "Yes, a small-time fraud and huckster beat an accomplished syndicate-leader and became President despite having no campaign and despite having pissed off anyone and everyone who might have funded it -- but for a brief, shining moment I got to blame the liberals on Facebook for this event rather than allowing Clinton to take responsibility for her actions."
"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati
Funny, six words.
DOMA, Honduras, Syria, Libya, Iran, Palestinians.
Solidarity forever
"And so children...
We were all so SCARED of the loud orange man,
That we VOTED for cackling old lady,
But she started a big WAR,
And all the buildings fell down and now everybody glows green!"
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
"cackling old lady"
You made me do it
The Russian War
The Russian War is all Hillary. She's been working towards it since her SoS days. Obama's moving tactical nuclear weapons onto the Russian border NOW.
That's right. The DEMOCRATS are maneuvering towards a completely unnecessary, nuclear war with Russia, a country that has NEVER been conquered. Whenever we do war games with the Russians, we lose. Every. Single. Time. And we don't have enough military personnel for our current engagements, which is why a bill to draft women is moving through Congress.
Trump is the isolationist. That's WHY all the Bushies and neocons are openly backing Hillary. So those Hillbots can f*** right off with their scaremongering.
So Sec of State Clinton didn
So Sec of State Clinton didn't just sell the Russians 20% of America's already-inadequate-for-nuclear-power strategic uranium resources merely for fun and massive Clinton Foundation, etc. profit gained at the time?
Oh, good, she can go out with a bang in Mutual Assured Destruction she helps to arrange and take the rest of us with her to be her slaves in hell?
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
Here's the image they're spreading
This is, of course, hippie-punching. Alternate caption: "Yes, a small-time fraud and huckster beat an accomplished syndicate-leader and became President despite having no campaign and despite having pissed off anyone and everyone who might have funded it -- but for a brief, shining moment I got to blame the liberals on Facebook for this event rather than allowing Clinton to take responsibility for her actions."
"the Democratic Party is not 'left'." -- Sabrina Salvati
How about
"Yes, a corrupt liar and war monger stole the Presidency and led us to the destruction that caused everybody to live in caves. Her supporters desecrated the facebook pages of those of us sounding the alarm."
Beware the bullshit factories.
You could direct them to Black leftists
The progressive/left argument to vote for Trump to block Clinton, both as the greater evil and to purge/weaken the corporate hold over the Democratic Party, is pretty solid. But if you specifically want to push back against the white privilege thing, a quick and easy way would be to direct them to any one of a number of black leftists who are taking the same position. Michelle Alexander would probably be the best place to start, although Black Men for Bernie's Twitter feed is pretty interesting. I think the writer of this piece is white, but he starts with a quote from Mumia Abu-Jamal: http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/07/19/the-time-is-now-to-defeat-both-tr...
I was directed to this piece by a black political activist. We've been going back and forth about whether the best choice is to vote third party, or commit to voting for Trump if necessary to stop Clinton. I moved to the latter position a few months ago, after working through all the strategic and policy issues. There certainly are plenty of people of color or other marginalized communities who aren't drinking the fear Kool-Aid re: Trump.
And finally, here's my simple response. If Trump was really so dangerous, the elites in the Democratic Party and the media who know him better than we do wouldn't be forcing the Democratic nomination to someone who the FBI Director admitted ought to be in jail, who refuses to appear in public, against whom credible evidence exists of election theft, and who has the worst favorability of any Democratic candidate in history. They could choose a candidate who is broadly popular across the country, whose nomination would guarantee winning the White House, would probably flip the Senate (that's also looking increasingly unlikely with Clinton), and would guarantee that the largest generational voting block in history became solidly Democratic. The superdelegates could do it. You wouldn't even need all of them to do it. That's their job. They're supposed to stop weak general election candidates. The fact that they're refusing to do it when the evidence is clear that Trump could beat her tells me the "ZOMG! HITLER/SATAN/END TIMES!" stuff is just for the suckers and the rubes. They're clearly less afraid of him than they are of Bernie. So why should I be?
I will put it in context for you
They white shame me as well and I am an Indian. Because apparently my skin is not the right hue to be a minority. Funny how that works.
I take it with a grain of sand. My real take from it is no matter who they elect the freedom to express an dissenting opinion will be something that is dangerous to use.
Well, then, they evidently
Well, then, they evidently don't share our values - they're OK with everything Hillary does and will vote for hostile corporate take-over, war on the world and ultimate global destruction for what? Their own destruction, as well, whether they realize it or not.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
You're a veritable porcupine
You're a veritable porcupine of great points! Especially:
Edit: that needs to be a bumper sticker. Seriously, it really does!
Re-edit: that's a great message/meme.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
the Diebold demographic
A bunch of safes and bank vaults are going to vote for her??
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
If they're hooked up to the Internets
for temperature, humidity, and status monitoring, of course they will. Repeatedly.You couldn't let a secure, high-speed network, such as Da Banks had long before the MIC did, go to waste, now could you?
littlevoice
Banks are people too, dontchaknow?! n/t
Diebold makes voting machines as well as
the machines for drive up banking and bank vault doors. The Diebold voting machines have been part of our conversation since the 2000 presidential election. This is assuming your comment wasn't snark.
It's bullshit that pollsters aren't including Jill Stein
when the whole premise of getting on the debate stage is based on a benchmark in national polls. But then this whole process is bullshit, so I guess it's just par for the course.
She's a lot easier for them to ignore than Bernie
... and look how successfully the media has ignored him.
Please help support caucus99percent!
And then they wonder outloud...
why the polls always overestimate Hillary's support on election day.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Stein and Johnson are in recent polls
See here. Not always, but it is becoming a thing.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Johnson is doing better than Stein because the media
has given him more recognition. Just this morning, he was on CNN (New Day). Having lived through 8 years of that fool as NM governor, just seeing his face makes me shiver. In case you're attracted, know that he's a selfish SOB who cares about no one but himself. And know that prior to being governor he had a construction company. That company got a majorly heavy fine from OSHA. Damn regulation!!
Then he's perfect for the Libertarianss
To be fair, the libertarians are much better organized
They are on all 50 ballots already and I just got my Washington state primary ballot, which has numerous down ballot Lib candidates. No greens.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
What Happened?
When did The Caucus become home to Hillary cheerleaders?
Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.
Hillary cheerleaders?
It hasn't.
What has happened is that we've gone down Lewis Carroll's rabbit hole, a place of very high weirdness indeed. We've got an election shaping up wherein the GOP blow-hard Presidential candidate is running to the left of the supposedly mainstream Democratic candidate. It's effing crazy. And our essayist is discussing some of the consequences of this particular batch of high weirdness.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Last time that happened was IIRC 1860,
when the Republican party was shiny-new and had very few ideological points yet. But their biggest point was Anti-Slavery, and they ran on that. With, I might add, a Presidential candidate who was widely ridiculed and regarded as a buffoon (and those were the nicest things the Democrats said about him!).
Not that I think there's any real comparison - but it just goes to show how weird elections can get.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
Not liking Trump != being pro-Hillary
Don't mistake the two.
They are both disgusting.
More people need to help Jill
More people need to help Jill get up in polls if possible. We need her debating and getting the votes away from the poor 3 choices being touted here by Politico.
So long, and thanks for all the fish