There's a once in a lifetime populist revolt going on. Don't tell anyone
Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse has closed to within 5 points of Rep. Richard Neal despite an unprecedented smear campaign by the state Democratic party.
If Morse wins that would make four successful primary challenges to longtime Democratic incumbents.
That probably doesn't sound impressive, but let's remember that incumbents generally win reelection at least 85% of the time.
And when it comes to primaries, incumbents almost never lose, winning over 98% of the time on average. However this year is different.
The eight current members of the House who have been felled in primaries and district conventions — five Republicans and three Democrats — is already twice the number who were defeated in the 2018 election cycle, as ideological and generational battles roil both parties. The last time eight House incumbents lost renomination outside a redistricting year was the Watergate-era 1974 primary season.
If Neal loses that would make 9 incumbents losing, which would be the most in a non-redistricting year since Nixon was secretly bombing Cambodia.
You would never know that we are seeing a once in a lifetime populist revolt going on. You wouldn't know it from the MSM, or even from most left-wing sites.
No one thinks that change is happening anywhere close to fast enough...and they are correct.
However, just because change is happening too slowly doesn't change the fact that it would be idiotic to ignore what's going on.
Not only are incumbent Democrats getting knocked off at an unusual level historically, the left wing groups that are pulling off these upsets are getting both more hits and hitting a higher average.
538 looked into this (538 is not sympathetic to the left-wing), but they were forced to admit that progressive are starting to get a handle on this.
But in the 17 primaries where progressives (candidates endorsed by at least one of these six entities) went up against an incumbent, the progressive-backed candidate lost 14 times. (Newman, Bowman and Bush were the only exceptions.)
That sounds bad, but here's the other side of the story.
In primaries where there wasn’t an incumbent on the ballot, progressives did better: 22 wins (including Mondaire Jones in New York and Kara Eastman in Nebraska) to 10 losses (including Charles Booker in Kentucky). That’s a 69 percent win rate.
Wahoo! 22 wins, at a 69% win rate, will get sh8t done!
Knocking off three or four incumbents is just gravy when you are DOMINATING open primaries.
While no one is talking about it, no politician, no reporter, no one, you know that the party establishment is very aware of this fact.
It goes a long ways toward explaining why they are shitting on progressives so publicly. They have to discourage progressives or this could get out of control very quickly.
Judging by what I see online, the establishment's strategy is working, because I see far more progressives ready to give up (just as all this hard work is starting to gather momentum) than to keep fighting the establishment.
Comments
Backfire!
Hey, and note that Morse outraised Neal after the smear job.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/08/21/massachusetts-progressive-c...
And that, following Pelosi's despicable endorsement of Joe Kennedy against progressive incumbent Markey, Markey outraised Kennedy by a factor of 3!
"Fear is the mind-killer" - Frank Herbert, Dune
Not sure I totally agree.
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
Yay!
This is such encouraging news.
I agree that the lack of this info in the press shows us that we are having an impact.
NYCVG
The Democratic Party
will always function as such.
That makes reforming it impossible.
It is what it is.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
smells like the 92 feminist incursion
pu stinks like propaganda to me but your mileage may wildly vary depending on age class and or gender.
92 was the year of the woman sham i voted feinstein boxer and they are both still grifting as our forests burn and the river systems dry up. minimum wage is only $12 per hour and the rent is still too damn high. harris is another fine bowl of environmental shit look at our state it is ruined by overpopulation and greed with a big g. so many billionaires fleeing fifth largest cause of climate collapse the place is crumbling apart and more austerity coming. frack it. vote d
i can totally imagine aoc and squad revolving their way to riches along with the rest. why wouldnt they. but that is my view tarnished by my simple reality. experience the past and the future is prologue. the same but slightly different just like a pharma patent scam. influencers unite. whole damn dollar my ass.
try something different thats my advice. stop flushing good money down their bad money hole. remove all support even your words. mutual aid works better right now for the desperate zombies who r coming for ur stuff. not congress not charity. congress is for grifters as long as citizens united stands. thanks her and michael moore both. the glorious democrats. charity is a huge vampire suck. stop it. biden and sanders both killed their charities on the same day. why. appearances. look it up. it quacks just like a duck. the kind that makes torture pate. revolting yes.
good luck young people. think for yourself not for the echo chamber. help each other dont waste time voting for hope. get real before the real gets you.
shakes fist at stasi cloud shouts at twitter sky
has anyone here given up their west coast shit company accounts of course not. people earn livings harming others for profit and app delivery gratification is addictive. dont be a job killer. sarc. making assholes richer prevents more asshole behavior. drunk daddy knows best. sarc sarc. ad sponsored democracy tracking is whats for dinner for those who can still afford dinner. yummy.
if you think you can change congress before it changes you then go for it. move ahead. try to detect it. its not too late. just whip it. whip it good. and remember you will never ever have a computer big enough to run the anti algorithms that are currently extracting profits from the earth and your own fine income veins. no way no how. its tim leary time to tune out and dump thy hollerith number but i digress. sustainable digression versus hypernormalization. why be normal.
thanks and good luck to all
92 was all about identity
and wasn't opposed by the establishment.