Steel tariffs: It's all about next Tuesday's election

It's come to this. Trump is willing to start a global trade war just to win a single congressional election.

Other than a slice of the Pittsburgh suburbs, it’s mostly a manufacturing area with some jobs in steel. There’s reason to believe that the surprise timing last week of Trump’s announced tariffs on steel and aluminum — which caught even top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn by surprise — was intended to boost prospects in this critical contest.

If the Democrat wins three days after Trump’s appearance in the district on Saturday, it’ll set off fear among party strategists that they’re likely to drop dozens of seats in November and lose control of the House.

Trump will stress his proposed 25 percent tariff on steel imports, which is popular in the contested district. He’s under pressure from Republicans elsewhere to modify this plan, but don’t expect that to happen before the March 13 election day.

So the tariff will be gone, or mostly gone, two weeks from now.
It's a terrible and cynical way to run a country.

Here's the clincher: Europe is wise to what is happening, and why.

The European Union is preparing punitive tariffs on iconic U.S. brands produced in key Republican constituencies, raising political pressure on President Donald Trump to ditch his plan for taxing steel imports.
...Paul Ryan, Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, comes from the same state -- Wisconsin -- where motorbike maker Harley-Davidson Inc. is based. Earlier this week, Ryan said he was “extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war” and urged Trump to drop his tariff proposal.
Other U.S. politicians will also feel the pressure. Bourbon whiskey hails from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state of Kentucky.

Wait a sec. Isn't this proof that Europe is meddling in our elections?
Oh, it doesn't matter unless it's Russia.

Speaking of elections, guess who won the Italian election?
That's right, Putin!

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

It's a terrible and cynical way to run a country.

I thought you wanted those tariffs. Having second thoughts?

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger
No exceptions.

This is the opposite of what I want.
This is all bluster, with no intention of follow-through.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

Everybody pays 10% more 'across the board' for imported goods and a bunch of American workers lose their jobs in the retaliation.

Yeah! Bring on the trade war!

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@Not Henry Kissinger
I know you don't want to acknowledge this fact, but the United States became the richest nation in history behind the highest tariffs in the world.

(mic dropped)

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit

at the expense of everyone else.

Or do you think it's mere coincidence that the era of the highest trade barriers happened during the era of the greatest economic inequality (not counting present day)?

What good is a trade war if all it does is bring the sweatshops back home?

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@Not Henry Kissinger
You don't get "richest nation on Earth" = "a few rich at the expense of everyone else".
Those two things are mutually exclusive.

And more importantly, you acknowledge that inequality is at its highest levels in our nation's history, while trade barriers are at their lowest.
But Gawd Forbid that we go back to doing what made the nation wealthy to begin with. Let's keep doing the same ol' thing that has run this nation into the ground, because reasons.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit @gjohnsit

What a wonderful, enlightened period for workers that was.

Seriously, if this were 1896 you would have voted for McKinley over Bryan.

And somehow I'm the Capitalist apologist? Sheesh.

Besides, the US wasn't the 'richest nation on earth' in the nineteenth century. It only became so after two devastating world wars in the twentieth century destroyed everyone else's industrial bases.

Also, you lend way too much credit to trade barriers for the nation's growth. There was a whole continent to be developed economically regardless of whether the New England clothing manufacturers were able to charge their fellow Americans more for wool coats. Not to mention the massive increase in foreign money that flowed into US coffers due to the export of mainly agricultural products during this time.

Besides, this isn't 1870 any more and the US is now a developed nation. For developing nations trade barriers make sense to protect fledgling industries, but those don't exist in the US any more and they ain't coming back just because you want to charge us all 10% more for our cell phones.

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@Not Henry Kissinger

Seriously, if this were 1896 you would have voted for McKinley over Bryan.

Of course not. Bryan stood against Wall Street.

And somehow I'm the Capitalist apologist? Sheesh.

That obviously isn't what I said.
If you want to tap out of this, I won't hold it against you.

Besides, the US wasn't the 'richest nation on earth' in the nineteenth century. It only became so after two devastating world wars in the twentieth century destroyed everyone else's industrial bases.

Not true. Our per capita GDP rivaled Britain's and Germany's before WWI, and we surpassed both of them in the 1920's...behind those tariffs.

Also, you lend way too much credit to trade barriers for the nation's growth.

I know what it means to have power in negotiations, and not to have power.
Labor with no power gets pay cuts every time.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

Bryan stood firmly against tariffs, which Wall Street loved. It was actually a major issue of the campaign.

Not true. Our per capita GDP rivaled Britain's and Germany's before WWI, and we surpassed both of them in the 1920's...behind those tariffs.

So tariffs, and not a devastating war that destroyed a whole generation of Germans and Brits, resulted in the US taking the lead in worldwide production? Really?

That obviously isn't what I said.
If you want to tap out of this, I won't hold it against you.

Sorry, that was meant for Aspie.

Labor with no power gets pay cuts every time.

And tariffs helped the labor movement how again?

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger @Not Henry Kissinger
Tariffs will accelerate the drive towards automation since the US does have some relatively decent labor laws that require shelling out a little more money. Automation is one of the main reasons for workers losing their jobs.

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Beware the bullshit factories.

The Aspie Corner's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger because then shit wage workers will be priced out of everything. Seriously. You might as well go the way of AnCapistan with this shit.

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@The Aspie Corner

I'm not following that 'logic'.

Workers should stop demanding higher wages because....What?

You think workers are going to get paid more because of higher tariffs? When in history has that ever happened?

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@Not Henry Kissinger

Workers should stop demanding higher wages because....What?

Because otherwise management will move the factory to Mexico or China.
Have you been hiding under a rock since NAFTA?

You think workers are going to get paid more because of higher tariffs? When in history has that ever happened?

United States 1860's-1960's.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

were paid more in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century?

Seriously? I'm sure that would be news to Eugene Debs.

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@Not Henry Kissinger
Sheesh!
Not Henry Kissinger, what's next?
Are we going back to GOS-style debating tactics?

Please do me a favor and let me know ahead of time.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

You're the one who falsely stated workers got paid more during the Gilded Age.

A picture is worth a thousand words for that whopper.

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@Not Henry Kissinger
Thanks for playing.
You win the GOS award for the day. Wear it proudly.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

You win the GOS award for the day. Wear it proudly.

Seems I'm hearing a lot of name calling lately by people without much else to say.

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@Not Henry Kissinger
It couldn't possibly be that you aren't hearing what other people say.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit

Just a few who don't like challenges to their bullshit statements.

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@Not Henry Kissinger

Everyone else: "That's not what I said. That's not what I meant

You: That's what you said. You are all liars. And why is everyone so mean to me?

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit

Quit the name calling and puerile misdirection and explain yourself.

Other than your correlation equals causation fallacy, give me even ONE concrete historical example where tariffs actually helped increase worker wages during that period of history you cite.

(I'd also point out that Engel's quote below cites a number of prominent examples where tariffs had quite the opposite effect.)

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The Aspie Corner's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Everybody pays 10% more 'across the board' for imported goods and a bunch of American workers lose their jobs in the retaliation.

Yeah! Bring on the trade war!

The Bourgeoisie say the exact same shit when it comes to arguments against living wages or, hell, raising our abysmal minimum wage even one god damned red cent. Entitled fucks.

PresiDunce Dipshit is only doing this shit out of pure bravado. Not to mention one of his pig buddies dumped steel stock right before the announcement.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5_alWuovBw]

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@The Aspie Corner

in your own mind. But honestly, I have no idea what point you are trying to make except trying to equate my argument that workers don't benefit from tariffs (they don't and never have) with some sort of robber baron ideology.

Read your history. Progressives have been standing against tariffs and other trade barriers since the term Progressive was first coined, because they have always realized that the benefits of those barriers only redound to the bosses while the costs always get dropped on the rest of us.

And I'd also appreciate it if you stop with the bizarre Marxist epithets, especially since you're the one making the (rather convoluted) case for the industrialists. Not me.

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The Aspie Corner's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger I'm simply trying to point out that the argument you're making can be made for virtually everything the capitalists whine about, whether it's tarrifs, taxation or The Eight forbid, raising wages for the working class. Your exact argument has been applied to all three. Something you choose to ignore.

Anyone can see this (Drumpf's bloviating about tarrifs) is all nothing more than hot air and another way to exploit a shit system for his own benefit. Why keep squealing like a stuck pig about it?

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@The Aspie Corner

if you approached an argument on its merits rather than simply trying to equate it to whatever group you don't like.

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The Aspie Corner's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger Yeah, because that's worked out so well over the last 500 years. If we all just continue to suck capitalist dick for peanuts, they'll just magically make things all better.

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

@Not Henry Kissinger
lowered wages in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, a trifecta. But it certainly increased free trade.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@The Aspie Corner

The question of Free Trade or Protection being at present on the order of the day in America, it has been thought useful to publish an English translation of Marx's speech, to which I have been asked to write an introductory preface.

"The system of protection," says Marx, "was an artificial means of manufacturing manufacturers, of expropriating independent laborers, of capitalizing the national means of production and subsistence, and of forcibly abbreviating the transition from the medieval to the modern mode of production."

...

Protection is at best an endless screw, and you never know when you have done with it. By protecting one industry, you directly or indirectly hurt all others, and have therefore to protect them too. By so doing you again damage the industry that you first protected, and have to compensate it; but this compensation reacts, as before, on all other trades, and entitles them to redress, and so on ad infinitum. America, in this respect, offers us a striking example of the best way to kill an important industry by protectionism. In 1856, the total imports and exports by sea of the United State amounted to $641,604,850. Of this amount, 75.2 per cent were carried in American, and only 24.8 per cent in foreign vessels. British ocean steamers were already then encroaching upon American sailing vessels; yet, in 1860, of a total seagoing trade of $762,288,550, American vessels still carried 66.5 per cent.

The Civil War came on, and protection to American shipbuilding; and the latter plan was so successful that it has nearly completely driven the American flag from the high seas. In 1887, the total seagoing trade of the United States amounted to $1,408,502,979, but of this total only 13.8 per cent were carried in American, and 86.2 per cent in foreign bottoms. The goods carried by American ships amounted, in 1856, to $482,268,274; in 1860 to $507,247,757. In 1887, they had sunk to $194,356,746. Forty years ago, the American flag was the most dangerous rival of the British flag, and bade fair to outstrip it on the ocean; now it is nowhere. Protection to shipbuilding has killed both shipping and shipbuilding.

Another point. Improvements in the methods of production nowadays follow each other so rapidly, and change the character of entire branches of industry so suddenly and so completely, that what may have been yesterday a fairly balanced protective tariff is no longer so today. Let us take another example from the Report of the Secretary of the Treasury for 1887:

"Improvement in recent years in the machinery employed in combing wool has so changed the character of what are commercially known as worsted clothes that the latter have largely superseded woolen cloths for us as men's wearing apparel. This change... has operated to the serious injury of our domestic manufacturers of these (worsted) goods, because the duty on the wool which they must use is the same as that upon wool used in making woolen cloths, while the rate of duty imposed upon the latter when valued at not exceeding 80 cents per pound are 35 per cent ad valorem, whereas the duty on worsted cloths valued at not exceeding 80 cents ranges from 10 to 24 cents per pound and 35 per cent ad valorem. In some cases the duty on the wool used in making worsted cloths exceed the duty imposed on the finished article."

Thus what was protection to home industry yesterday turns out today to be a premium to the foreign importer, and well may the Secretary of the Treasury say:

"There is much reason to believe that the manufacturer of worsted cloths must soon cease in this country unless the tariff law in this regard is amended."

But to amend it, you will have to fight the manufacturers of woolen clothes who profit by this state of things; you will have to open a regular campaign to bring the majority of both Houses of Congress, and eventually the public opinion of the country round to your views, and the question is, Will that pay?

But the worst of protection is that when you once have got it, you cannot easily get rid of it. Difficult as is the process of adjustment of an equitable tariff, the return to Free Trade is immensely more difficult. The circumstances that permitted England to accomplish the change in a few years will not occur again. And even there the struggle dated from 1823 (Huckisson), commenced to be successful in 1842 (Peel's tariff), and was continued for several years after the repeal of the Corn Laws. Thus protection to the silk manufacturer (the only one which had still to fear foreign competition) was prolonged for a series of years and then granted in another, positively infamous form; while the other textile industries were subjected to the Factory Act -- which limited the hours of labor of women, young persons, and children -- the silk trade was favored with considerable exceptions to the general rule enabling them to work younger children, and to work the children and young persons longer hours, than the other textile trades. The monopoly that the hypocritical Free Traders repealed with regard to the foreign competitors, that monopoly they created anew at the expense of the health and lives of English children.

...

The question of Free Trade or Protection moves entirely within the bounds of the present system of capitalist production, and has, therefore, no direct interest for us socialists who want to do away with that system.

Indirectly, however, it interests us inasmuch as we must desire as the present system of production to develop and expand as freely and as quickly as possible: because along with it will develop also those economic phenomena which are its necessary consequences, and which must destroy the whole system: misery of the great mass of the people, in consequence of overproduction. This overproduction engendering either periodical gluts and revulsions, accompanied by panic, or else a chronic stagnation of trade; division of society into a small class of large capitalist, and a large one of practically hereditary wage-slaves, proletarians, who, while their numbers increase constantly, are at the same time constantly being superseded by new labor-saving machinery; in short, society brought to a deadlock, out of which there is no escaping but by a complete remodeling of the economic structure which forms it basis.

...

The wage laborer everywhere follows in the footsteps of the manufacturer; he is like the "gloomy care" of Horace, that sits behind the rider, and that he cannot shake off wherever he go. You cannot escape fate; in other words, you cannot escape the necessary consequences of your own actions. A system of production based upon the exploitation of wage labor, in which wealth increases in proportion to the number of laborers employed and exploited, such a system is bound to increase the class of wage laborers, that is to say, the class which is fated one day to destroy the system itself. In the meantime, there is no help for it: you must go on developing the capitalist system, you must accelerate the production, accumulation, and centralization of capitalist wealth, and, along with it, the production of a revolutionary class of laborers. Whether you try the Protectionist or the Free Trade will make no difference in the end, and hardly any in the length of the respite left to you until the day when that end will come. For long before that day will protection have become an unbearable shackle to any country aspiring, with a chance of success, to hold its own in the world market.

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The Aspie Corner's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger I don't think I ever advocated for the tariffs PresiDunce Dipshit is 'proposing'. Everything Dipshit has done to this point from the day he announced his run has been nothing more than pure douchebaggery. This whole thing about protectionism and tariffs on his part is just more of the same. Then again, if 'Murica were a human being, it would be the biggest douchebag in the universe.

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

@Not Henry Kissinger

All they have to do is make it here, and there will be zero tariffs to pay. Funny how things like tariffs, free education, higher minimum wage, and single payer are always doom and gloom and the end of the world. I'm tired of the fear mongering and bull shit. What will they all say when the earth continues to spin? I'm with gjohnsit on tariffs all the way.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

@dkmich

Is this issue really about 'free trade' vs 'protectionism' or is it about the fact that what are being termed 'trade deals' are nothing more than privately agreed corporate coups designed to drain workers and the world in order to suck the last drops of life-blood out of a planet, the life-support system of which they're murdering by industrial/military pollution and destruction for maximized profiteering and absolute control of everyone and everything else, while life lasts, at all cost to everyone and everything else?

Actual representatives of the workers and general publics of involved countries need to be working this sort of thing out together in a manner that's fair to everybody, with reasonable profits/living wages (and decent treatment) accruing to all involved in production/transport, etc. at any point and an end to unnecessary, if lucrative, transport around the world of 'coals to Newcastle' which is adding to costs and pollution, while workers are paid starvation wages to make the already wealthy even richer.

As long as these private deals are worked out specifically to screw over the worker and publics while freely destroying the ecology (which, for the short-sighted, includes any hope of a safe food/water/air supply) in a 'cost-saving' manner, in order to serve the pathological greed of corporate interests, billionaires and those serving their and their own personal self-interests within governments willing to sacrifice their people and country to Mammon, that is what they're going to achieve, no matter what label they're given.

And it seems to One Who, admittedly, Knows Nothing, that at this point, we're pretty much arguing about whether they should smash our future as well as all that remains to us now with a pickaxe or a sledgehammer.

TPTB typically attempt to frame everything in a manner that allows them to frame our perceptions so that we don't ultimately look at the results and the causes and the ways in which things should be done to make things fair and sustainable, because they'd then wind up with only reasonable profits and no monopolies or ability to buy governments.

I strongly feel, apart from everything else, that - if nothing else - we need to do whatever they least want us to do. And while we're there, maybe we can start shifting back into a societal frame involving sanity, empathy, ethics and all of those human qualities required for civilization.

They haven't been shifting us 'right', they've been shafting us into a globally suicidal lunacy.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

1. we no longer have progressive taxation. Instead of reinvesting in production the rich will simply pocket increased profits.
2. people will see higher prices but will not see higher wages, allowing the rich to create "pressure" to remove the tarriffs. Once that is done the rich will keep prices high, increasing profits while still blaming the tarriffs.
3. we have a labor glut. though many people will go from part time to full time employment, there will be no need to increase wages. In fact, there will be a decrease in wages, as people will be willing to accept lower pay for the increased jobs.
4. the rich's media lackeys will say so again and again, and everyone will believe them. Anyone who doesn't believe will be marginalized.

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On to Biden since 1973

Outsourcing Is Treason's picture

@doh1304
tariffs make offshore outsourcing less competitive because stuff made here doesn’t get taxed.

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"Please clap." -- Jeb Bush

@Outsourcing Is Treason
It will only increase the price of existing American production. Why take the risk of investing in increased production when you can force the consumers you already have to pay you the tariff without having to pay it yourself. Investment is by definition risky (foreign product consumers could always decide to not buy any more) but raising prices to consumers that you believe will buy no matter what is free money. Yes, this is a fallacy, but it conforms to the mind set of American capitalists.

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On to Biden since 1973

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@doh1304

Any increase in domestic production will largely be accomplished by investments in automation rather than actual people.

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@Not Henry Kissinger
So, what it all means is that without progressive taxation all tariffs will give us is higher prices and quicker job loss to automation (and higher profits, which will be invested in corruption)

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On to Biden since 1973

k9disc's picture

I read some spook or general of import's presenting of the new NSS or NDP - a defense strategy paper. I really wish I could find it again, it was rather scary.

It suggested that any diplomatic or economic chicanery intended to influence American interests was to be treated as an Act of War. It claimed diplomacy was an act of war, and was, for all intents and purposes, bonkers.

It was Mattis or McMaster, maybe? I went through a list on google and couldn't find it.

But I wanted to mention that these are Acts of War.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

gulfgal98's picture

involving actually homeland security. It has been shown that steel and other products made abroad are often of inferior quality. Steel is an essential industry for infrastructure and defense. American steel can be more easily checked for quality control at the source of production than foreign manufactured steel.

Just this week, the president of Kobe Steel (Japan) was forced to resign due to the company falsely certifying their products met the specifications of their clients, some of whom were foreign clients. Kobe Steel and Toyota were previously sued in US courts over the inferior quality of the steel used in Toyota vehicles.

I am not saying that this is the reason for Trump's call for tariffs on imported steel, but there are good reasons for instituting tariffs. Chinese dumping of excess steel has caused multiple calls for tariffs all over the world.

China’s massive steel-making engine, determined to keep humming as growth cools at home, is flooding the world with exports, spurring steel producers around the globe to seek government protection from falling prices.

From the European Union to Korea and India, China’s excess metal supply is upending trade patterns and heating up turf battles among local steelmakers.

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Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy