We have hear plenty from those who say this is all over and Sanders cannot win. I will have more to say about that in a few days, but:

Per RealClearPolitics Clinton has a 205 pledged delegate lead.

On February 5th, 2008 Clinton led Obama according to CNN 818 to 730. On March 11th, Obama led Clinton 1,610 to 1,480. Note a couple of things about those numbers:

1. The swing from Clinton to Obama was LARGER than Clinton’s lead is now over Sanders.

2. The swing took place much later in the process. Far fewer delegates have been selected now as opposed to in 2008, and more remain for Sanders to make up the difference.

I have heard repeatedly here how this is nearly over. Basically, as usual when it comes to politics, no one actually bothers to look up history. People look at currently numbers and assume the future will be a straight line. But that is seldom the case. As I wrote at dakilykos in 2003, surprises are common in politics.

See Michigan, for example.

At this point Clinton’s best states are behind her. Sanders leads Clinton by 79 delegates in states outside of the deep South. It is true: the polling in many of these states is daunting for Sanders. But much of this state polling must be viewed with skepticism. If Sanders is down between 7 and 9 nationally, there is no way he can be down 20 and 30 points in Illinois and Ohio, particularly given what we know about Clinton’s strength in the South.

Is Sanders the favorite. No.

There are differences between now and 2008 : the parallel is not exact.

But a swing as large as he needs now happened in 2008.

It can happen. Which is why everyone is so invested in trying to end so soon.